The economic consequences of Brexit

[jjlynn27]

JagLover said:

Indeed

and people "far more qualified" than me have also been questioning that decision.

The position that we are in is that every single economic problem over the next few years will be attributed to Brexit, but the UK economy had fundamental problems before 23 June and then you add to that the impact of economic decisions made since (such as the 1/4 point rate cut and further QE)

Edited by JagLover on Monday 24th October 07:32

Indeed? Ok, now that you've figure out that MPC doesn't stand for Mark P Carney, you think that the rest of the committee was lead by him into dropping rates?

eat is>was

[jamoor]

davepoth said:

No, it'll take weeks and weeks and weeks to clear a car in Vietnam or Belize, but that's the nature of Vietnam and Belize. Developed nations do tend to have more efficient processes in place, as we do.

My understanding is that since all of the vehicles imported from outside the EU are covered by a type approval that was previously obtained, all that's needed is a declaration to customs that the vehicle matches that type approval and the vehicles will be released in a matter of hours as any general cargo might be.

http://www.dft.gov.uk/vca//vehicletype/ecwvta-fram...

So I guess a car will clear customs quicker if going between EU states than going into the EU from outside ?

[davepoth]

jamoor said:

So I guess a car will clear customs quicker if going between EU states than going into the EU from outside ?

There's no "clear" within the EU. You know how you drive on to the ferry and drive off the other end? It's just like that.

[jamoor]

davepoth said:

There's no "clear" within the EU. You know how you drive on to the ferry and drive off the other end? It's just like that.

Really? So I guess when Nissan export cars from the UK to EU (if we stop being part of the common market), they will have to Clear customs when entering the EU? Will that be quicker or what they do at present?

[///ajd]

bmw535i said:

///ajd said:

Don't worry, it will come.

Its like a tsunami where the tide goes a long way out first, lulling you into a false sense of safety.

Yes you've said it will come, therefore it must be so.



Merely repeating yourself isn't a convincing argument. It tends to make some people think everything you say a bit stupid.

Feckers nicked my soundbite.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/24/t...

Still content free 535i, do carry on and remove all doubt.

[Digga]

///ajd said:

bmw535i said:

///ajd said:

Don't worry, it will come.

Its like a tsunami where the tide goes a long way out first, lulling you into a false sense of safety.

Yes you've said it will come, therefore it must be so.



Merely repeating yourself isn't a convincing argument. It tends to make some people think everything you say a bit stupid.

Feckers nicked my soundbite.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/24/t...

Still content free 535i, do carry on and remove all doubt.

Would that be Harvard-Keynsian Danny Blanchflower, by any chance?

[sidicks]

jjlynn27 said:

And you ask people to explain why you broke their irony meter?

Remind me what your area of expertise is?

[alfie2244]

///ajd said:

David Blanchflower, professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, USA.

Another Yank scaremongering then......you really are a divhead as my grandkids would say.

[anonymous-user]

///ajd said:

Feckers nicked my soundbite.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/24/t...

Still content free 535i, do carry on and remove all doubt.

Many economists prior to the referendum had been predicting an immediate and significant impact on the UK economy and consumer confidence should the country vote to leave the EU. But so far these predictions have not come to pass.
The UK services sector grew 0.4% in July, much more strongly than expected in the wake of June's vote to leave the European Union, showing that consumers carried on spending as normal after the Brexit vote.
Other figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show economic growth accelerated faster than thought in the run-up to the referendum. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.7% in the three months to the end of June, up from the 0.6% first estimated.

Consumer confidence has returned to pre-referendum levels in September with shoppers shrugging off concerns and continuing to spend. They have been helped by higher wages, low inflation, and the Bank of England's record low interest rates, according to GfK.
Its consumer confidence index is back to its pre-Brexit vote levels in September, jumping six points in its biggest monthly rise since June 2015.
This continued consumer spending is also borne out by UK retail sales figures. Sales have generally been rising for the past three years, and in August they were up 6.2% from the same month last year. "Overall the figures do not suggest any major fall in post-referendum consumer confidence," the ONS said.

[Digga]

alfie2244 said:

///ajd said:

David Blanchflower, professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, USA.

Another Yank scaremongering then......you really are a divhead as my grandkids would say.

He's English - former MPC member - but is notoriously linked to certain political and economic views.

[davepoth]

jamoor said:

Really? So I guess when Nissan export cars from the UK to EU (if we stop being part of the common market), they will have to Clear customs when entering the EU? Will that be quicker or what they do at present?

There will likely be no difference if their supply chain is planned properly.

You see, all of those cars will arrive at Rotterdam (or Bremerhaven, or wherever) on a ship that carries several thousand cars at once. It takes a few hours for those to be unloaded into a big car park before they're distributed. Clearance will only take a couple of hours (as I mentioned previously), so should have been completed before the ship has finished unloading. No delays.

[grombot]

davepoth said:

jamoor said:

So I guess a car will clear customs quicker if going between EU states than going into the EU from outside ?

There's no "clear" within the EU. You know how you drive on to the ferry and drive off the other end? It's just like that.

Vehicles imported into the UK from outside the EU for VAT registered traders (which are not very low value) will clear in 10 minutes from time of arrival.

Vehicles arriving from inside the EU will be required to have paperwork confirming their 'C' status (free circulation). This can be in the form of a 'C' status manifest which will be provided by the port of load shipping agent (on behalf of the shipping line) or a T2L/T2LF document.

Note the above is for freight shipments only.

[alfie2244]

Digga said:

alfie2244 said:

///ajd said:

David Blanchflower, professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, USA.

Another Yank scaremongering then......you really are a divhead as my grandkids would say.

He's English - former MPC member - but is notoriously linked to certain economic views.

Point taken but can I say half Yank then?:

"British-born, Blanchflower is now both a British and a U.S. citizen, having moved to the United States in 1989."

ps as an aside

Blanchflower v. Blanchflower, 150 N.H. 226, is a landmark decision by the New Hampshire Supreme Court which ruled that sexual relations between two females, one of whom is married, does not constitute adultery because it is not technically sexual intercourse.[1]

[WinstonWolf]

Well, my share portfolio has just about exploded over the last six months. It's grown like I've never seen it before and I've had it twenty five years.

The economic consequences of Brexit for me have been fking superb

I'm sure ///ajd will try and tell me being a lot better off than I was six months ago is a bad thing, but I'm pleasantly surprised by how spectacularly wrong the doom-mongers have been *for some of us*

[Tryke3]

WinstonWolf said:

Well, my share portfolio has just about exploded over the last six months. It's grown like I've never seen it before and I've had it twenty five years.

The economic consequences of Brexit for me have been fking superb

I'm sure ///ajd will try and tell me being a lot better off than I was six months ago is a bad thing, but I'm pleasantly surprised by how spectacularly wrong the doom-mongers have been *for some of us*

Money makes money, the poor are still fked though and why should you care about them ?

[davepoth]

grombot said:

Vehicles imported into the UK from outside the EU for VAT registered traders (which are not very low value) will clear in 10 minutes from time of arrival.

Vehicles arriving from inside the EU will be required to have paperwork confirming their 'C' status (free circulation). This can be in the form of a 'C' status manifest which will be provided by the port of load shipping agent (on behalf of the shipping line) or a T2L/T2LF document.

Note the above is for freight shipments only.

So the RoRo ships they use aren't considered short sea shipping like a ferry? I guess that makes sense.

The T2L/T2LF has nearly the same information on it as an export/import declaration, doesn't it?

[sidicks]

Tryke3 said:

Money makes money, the poor are still fked though and why should you care about them ?

How's the Eurozone working out for the poor in Portugal, Greece, Italy etc etc?

[anonymous-user]

Tryke3 said:

Money makes money, the poor are still fked though and why should you care about them ?

Do you mean they were fked before the referendum too and its not made the slightest difference? I'm fairly sure there were poor people before it......

[fluffnik]

powerstroke said:

Is Scotland still part of the UK or did they vote to leave ??
Just confused by the pillock on R4 telling us they voted to remain in the EU
or maybe he is confusing the UK with the EU....

We narrowly voted to stay in the UK, at least partly due to the false promise that it would protect our EU membership.

We voted by a huge margin to stay in the EU.

Given a choice between staying in the UK and the EU, I'd choose the EU, as would many more.

[sidicks]

fluffnik said:

We narrowly voted to stay in the UK, at least partly due to the false promise that it would protect our EU membership.

Who promised that?

fluffnik said:

We voted by a huge margin to stay in the EU.

Given a choice between staying in the UK and the EU, I'd choose the EU, as would many more.

Scotland wouldn't qualify to join the EU in isolation.