The economic consequences of Brexit

[barryrs]

Tryke3 said:

Money makes money, the poor are still fked though and why should you care about them ?

What about the millions enrolled in workplace pensions on low wages?

[davepoth]

fluffnik said:

We narrowly voted to stay in the UK, at least partly due to the false promise that it would protect our EU membership.

We voted by a huge margin to stay in the EU.

Given a choice between staying in the UK and the EU, I'd choose the EU, as would many more.

So what's your take on it then - Do you consider the current option (leave the UK and the EU, which I guess was the only one anyway) as one that would be acceptable to Scotland?

[grombot]

davepoth said:

grombot said:

Vehicles imported into the UK from outside the EU for VAT registered traders (which are not very low value) will clear in 10 minutes from time of arrival.

Vehicles arriving from inside the EU will be required to have paperwork confirming their 'C' status (free circulation). This can be in the form of a 'C' status manifest which will be provided by the port of load shipping agent (on behalf of the shipping line) or a T2L/T2LF document.

Note the above is for freight shipments only.

So the RoRo ships they use aren't considered short sea shipping like a ferry? I guess that makes sense.

The T2L/T2LF has nearly the same information on it as an export/import declaration, doesn't it?

No they are not, as most vessels are leaving EU waters and calling at non EU ports. Even vessels that do not call outside the EU may have cargo onboard that is transshipping and destined for non EU destinations. Therefore either a 'c' status manifest or T2L/T2LF is required to show the goods are in free circulation within the EU. Customs do not differentiate between RORO and container vessels.

[anonymous-user]

fluffnik said:

We narrowly voted to stay in the UK, at least partly due to the false promise that it would protect our EU membership.

We voted by a huge margin to stay in the EU.

Given a choice between staying in the UK and the EU, I'd choose the EU, as would many more.

We (the UK) voted to leave. Your independence vote result did protect your EU membership. It was the EU referendum that undid it.

I would welcome the departure of Scotland from the UK, but it would appear that neither of us will be given that choice.

If you do get that choice, then the EU also have a choice whether or not to let you in.

[Hosenbugler]

Tryke3 said:

WinstonWolf said:

Well, my share portfolio has just about exploded over the last six months. It's grown like I've never seen it before and I've had it twenty five years.

The economic consequences of Brexit for me have been fking superb

I'm sure ///ajd will try and tell me being a lot better off than I was six months ago is a bad thing, but I'm pleasantly surprised by how spectacularly wrong the doom-mongers have been *for some of us*

Money makes money, the poor are still fked though and why should you care about them ?

The poor are who turned out and voted in their droves to leave the EU. I live in North Cambs, and the influx of migrant workers to the low paid in the Fens has been catastrophic for jobs and wages, Although I do hear very relaibly that a big food processor in Spalding has had difficulty getting the staff and has had to raise wages in some of the lower paid positions. Certainly good for the locals, reason assumed ,(although not known for fact) is that many migrant workers have left for other places.

[davepoth]

grombot said:

No they are not, as most vessels are leaving EU waters and calling at non EU ports. Even vessels that do not call outside the EU may have cargo onboard that is transshipping and destined for non EU destinations. Therefore either a 'c' status manifest or T2L/T2LF is required to show the goods are in free circulation within the EU. Customs do not differentiate between RORO and container vessels.

Every day's a school day.

So in summary there really isn't that much difference between inside the EU and outside the EU in terms of the amount of paperwork or time required at the point of arrival to get the cars off the ship and on to their destination?

[foxsasha]

With regards to importing we bring a couple of air shipments and a couple of sea shipments a week from outside the EU. The air shipments leave on a Friday and are at our door Monday morning. Collected from the factory, driven to airport, flown over, unloaded, duty paid, vat paid, goods on a lorry and unloaded into our warehouse. The only reason it's not quicker still is because of the freight time, not the import paperwork side.

[davepoth]

foxsasha said:

With regards to importing we bring a couple of air shipments and a couple of sea shipments a week from outside the EU. The air shipments leave on a Friday and are at our door Monday morning. Collected from the factory, driven to airport, flown over, unloaded, duty paid, vat paid, goods on a lorry and unloaded into our warehouse. The only reason it's not quicker still is because of the freight time, not the import paperwork side.

The UK is amongst the best in the world at allowing business to do business in my experience - compared to some of the absolute disasters I've experienced with shipping things abroad, the authorities here are very good.

[grombot]

davepoth said:

grombot said:

No they are not, as most vessels are leaving EU waters and calling at non EU ports. Even vessels that do not call outside the EU may have cargo onboard that is transshipping and destined for non EU destinations. Therefore either a 'c' status manifest or T2L/T2LF is required to show the goods are in free circulation within the EU. Customs do not differentiate between RORO and container vessels.

Every day's a school day.

So in summary there really isn't that much difference between inside the EU and outside the EU in terms of the amount of paperwork or time required at the point of arrival to get the cars off the ship and on to their destination?

In my opinion no, the only difference would be the payment of the duty (which varies depending on the type of goods). Some commodities are duty free, most things tend to be around the 2-3% range. Cars carry a 10% duty rate. You also have to pay 20% VAT on the majority of imports from outside the EU. However, if you purchase from within the EU you will pay VAT (or equivalent). Tariffs for Import duty are set at EU level and are the same throughout the union. Outside of the EU I believe the UK would be able to set the duty rates from zero percent right up to the WTO level, but not above.

It is also my understanding that upon the UK leaving the EU, the EU could apply WTO tariffs to UK origin goods but would not be able to go above these levels without breaking WTO rules. It is also my understanding that under WTO rules, you cannot penalise a third country (ie apply 5% to all countries outside the EU but 10% to the UK). If the UK trades with the EU under WTO terms its exports to the EU would incur import duty (payable by the EU importer, not the UK exporter) at the rate which the UK currently levies to non EU goods.

[Mrr T]

Hosenbugler said:

I live in North Cambs, and the influx of migrant workers to the low paid in the Fens has been catastrophic for jobs and wages.

Funny if you look at the statistics on job and wages in the east then you have record employment, no fall in job vacancies, and real wages rising. Very catastrophic.

[Hosenbugler]

Mrr T said:

Hosenbugler said:

I live in North Cambs, and the influx of migrant workers to the low paid in the Fens has been catastrophic for jobs and wages.

Funny if you look at the statistics on job and wages in the east then you have record employment, no fall in job vacancies, and real wages rising. Very catastrophic.

The feeling is that the wage rise is because of migrant workers going elsewhwere, a phenomena that has only occured after the vote. Locals appear to be benefiting. Take a look at the referenda stats for Lincolnshire, its no coincidence.

Incidentally, the source is a a regional production director of a very large company,. He should know.

[don'tbesilly]

Hosenbugler said:

Mrr T said:

Hosenbugler said:

I live in North Cambs, and the influx of migrant workers to the low paid in the Fens has been catastrophic for jobs and wages.

Funny if you look at the statistics on job and wages in the east then you have record employment, no fall in job vacancies, and real wages rising. Very catastrophic.

The feeling is that the wage rise is because of migrant workers going elsewhwere, a phenomena that has only occured after the vote. Locals appear to be benefiting. Take a look at the referenda stats for Lincolnshire, its no coincidence.

Incidentally, the source is a a regional production director of a very large company,. He should know.

Come on Fella, you know the score by now?

It's anecdotal evidence at best, and it doesn't fit a specific bias and agenda,in other words "it can't be true".

[Borghetto]

fluffnik said:

We narrowly voted to stay in the UK, at least partly due to the false promise that it would protect our EU membership.

We voted by a huge margin to stay in the EU.

Given a choice between staying in the UK and the EU, I'd choose the EU, as would many more.

So how will the UK leaving the EU effect your buy to let business?

[Hosenbugler]

don'tbesilly said:

Hosenbugler said:

Mrr T said:

Hosenbugler said:

I live in North Cambs, and the influx of migrant workers to the low paid in the Fens has been catastrophic for jobs and wages.

Funny if you look at the statistics on job and wages in the east then you have record employment, no fall in job vacancies, and real wages rising. Very catastrophic.

The feeling is that the wage rise is because of migrant workers going elsewhwere, a phenomena that has only occured after the vote. Locals appear to be benefiting. Take a look at the referenda stats for Lincolnshire, its no coincidence.

Incidentally, the source is a a regional production director of a very large company,. He should know.

Come on Fella, you know the score by now?

It's anecdotal evidence at best, and it doesn't fit a specific bias and agenda,in other words "it can't be true".

Oh I realise that , its just another bait that draws out remoaner desperation. The fact that it is a fact is just an excuse for them to dig out any negativity they can, irrespective of status. Expect soon , SNP bawling over Sturgeon, by sound of things,being told to "to fk off an shut up". I wish to hell the deplorable, vile county councillor Sturgeon creature would.

[Mrr T]

Hosenbugler said:

Mrr T said:

Hosenbugler said:

I live in North Cambs, and the influx of migrant workers to the low paid in the Fens has been catastrophic for jobs and wages.

Funny if you look at the statistics on job and wages in the east then you have record employment, no fall in job vacancies, and real wages rising. Very catastrophic.

The feeling is that the wage rise is because of migrant workers going elsewhwere, a phenomena that has only occured after the vote. Locals appear to be benefiting. Take a look at the referenda stats for Lincolnshire, its no coincidence.

Incidentally, the source is a a regional production director of a very large company,. He should know.

There are Government Statistics covering employment rates, level of job vacancies, and wages rates. These show employment rates have been rising for the last few years, job vacancies have not fallen in that time, and real wages have risen.

Or you can believe a man down the pub.

[b2hbm]

davepoth said:

I work at a multinational doing paperwork for exports out of the UK all over the world - we have around 4,000 shipments a year and we ship to around 70 countries, as well as the whole EU.

Generally speaking you can divide up the paperwork into two sets - the stuff you can do yourself, and the stuff that needs to be applied for from outside.

In house we would do the invoices, packing lists, quality certificates, product specs, that sort of thing, and as you guessed that's just a case of hitting print providing you have your IT set up correctly. However, it's only the in-house stuff that's consistently electronic.

Applying for documents from elsewhere is a bit more complicated. Some are very quick (Our chamber of commerce has an electronic system for Certificates of Origin and the like which means they can be turned around in an hour or so) but some take a lot longer - normally a week to ten days for most of things we do from my place (a food manufacturer). The original document is generally required for customs clearance.

One important one is the bill of lading. It's essentially a title deed to the goods (same as for your house) so the original has to be moved from seller to buyer for them to be able to collect the goods. We're trying to get away from them to electronic release (and for most countries that's possible) but they are still required for some places.

Layered on top of those two sets of documents is the occasional requirement for certification, legalisation, and (rarely) notarisation. These process revolve around physical pieces of paper, which have to get shuffled off to dusty offices for people to sign, stamp and seal at quite exorbitant expense. Those are normally only required for countries whose names end in "-stan" and the like though. That can take two weeks, on top of the week to apply for the documents in the first place.

My personal record for a shipment was one for Iran - 256 pages, nearly all of them signed by hand. You get to have a very quick signature in this business. And yes, our office does look like Bob Cratchit from A Christmas Carol would be at home there.

That's a great explanation Dave, thank you. I didn't realise so much went into sending stuff abroad.

I'm still slightly bemused why in the modern age we still need things signed by hand as it's probably 20 years since where I worked instigated the "electronic signature" for pressure vessel inspectors (which is a serious H&S thing) but I guess it takes all sorts.

I don't envy you having to collate 256 pages, and even worse having to sign them !

[davepoth]

grombot said:

In my opinion no, the only difference would be the payment of the duty (which varies depending on the type of goods). Some commodities are duty free, most things tend to be around the 2-3% range. Cars carry a 10% duty rate. You also have to pay 20% VAT on the majority of imports from outside the EU. However, if you purchase from within the EU you will pay VAT (or equivalent). Tariffs for Import duty are set at EU level and are the same throughout the union. Outside of the EU I believe the UK would be able to set the duty rates from zero percent right up to the WTO level, but not above.

It is also my understanding that upon the UK leaving the EU, the EU could apply WTO tariffs to UK origin goods but would not be able to go above these levels without breaking WTO rules. It is also my understanding that under WTO rules, you cannot penalise a third country (ie apply 5% to all countries outside the EU but 10% to the UK). If the UK trades with the EU under WTO terms its exports to the EU would incur import duty (payable by the EU importer, not the UK exporter) at the rate which the UK currently levies to non EU goods.

I'm not mad then. That's good.

[davepoth]

b2hbm said:

That's a great explanation Dave, thank you. I didn't realise so much went into sending stuff abroad.

I'm still slightly bemused why in the modern age we still need things signed by hand as it's probably 20 years since where I worked instigated the "electronic signature" for pressure vessel inspectors (which is a serious H&S thing) but I guess it takes all sorts.

I don't envy you having to collate 256 pages, and even worse having to sign them !

A lot of it is due to working with other countries who may not be quite as up to speed as we are. The first place I worked (in 2003) still had a TELEX machine to communicate with some customers!

[Hosenbugler]

Mrr T said:

Hosenbugler said:

Mrr T said:

Hosenbugler said:

I live in North Cambs, and the influx of migrant workers to the low paid in the Fens has been catastrophic for jobs and wages.

Funny if you look at the statistics on job and wages in the east then you have record employment, no fall in job vacancies, and real wages rising. Very catastrophic.

The feeling is that the wage rise is because of migrant workers going elsewhwere, a phenomena that has only occured after the vote. Locals appear to be benefiting. Take a look at the referenda stats for Lincolnshire, its no coincidence.

Incidentally, the source is a a regional production director of a very large company,. He should know.

There are Government Statistics covering employment rates, level of job vacancies, and wages rates. These show employment rates have been rising for the last few years, job vacancies have not fallen in that time, and real wages have risen.

Or you can believe a man down the pub.

The source is the production director of a large food processing company in Spalding, thats a FACT. Also, if things have been that good in the relevant area, Lincolnshire, go take a look at the referenda stats.

Still, you know better, so off you go to Market Square in Spalding, Boston, and spout your views, good look with that.

http://thelincolnite.co.uk/2016/06/lincolnshire-an... Lincolnshire referenda results. Strange eh, when its all been so good.

[don4l]

Mrr T said:

There are Government Statistics covering employment rates, level of job vacancies, and wages rates. These show employment rates have been rising for the last few years, job vacancies have not fallen in that time, and real wages have risen.

Or you can believe a man down the pub.

Would you care to specify what you mean "the last few years".

I've just done the figures for the last 8 years, and the RPI has risen by 21%, while wages have only risen by 14%. That shows a fall in "real wages".


https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/p...

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpricein...