The economic consequences of Brexit

[anonymous-user]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Didn't you know in the brexit utopia people are only allowed to think happy thoughts.

Even if you try to be realistic you will eventually get shouted down and likely insulted.

It's unrealistic to expect anyone to value a non voters opinion.

It's quite telling that somebody who has had their own posts removed for insulting people always complains about being insulted.

[Ridgemont]

glazbagun said:

The other stuff is not exactly talking the country up, but then we haven't heard anything (now months after the vote) about how the government would even like this to pan out, let alone how it will when we come to negotiate with the EU who, as CETA has shown, arent the quickest at getting things done.

And nor will you hear anything.

It really can't be said enough times the gov can't go into negotiations with even a half open book (ie having stated even generalised aim for example with an objective of EFTA) as it will almost ensure that they'll get half of that objective. Right now we have 2 poles being talked up: both are hard Brexit but one is UK hard Brexit and which sees us using WTO and slashed corp rates to mitigate while the good ship UK sales off to a free trade heaven, while the EU hard Brexit sees the UK cast into the outer darkness looking at NBTs and punitive tariffs. Both sides need to sound as if such an option is feasible in
Order to leverage the real outcome whatever that may be (I suspect it will be an bespoke EEA sectoral deal, with some kind of FMOL brake). I would imagine the very first message May received from the civil service and the UK perm rep in Brussels was something along the lines of 'if we're serious about negotiating an exit deal we have to shut up shop re detail *now* re objectives as otherwise we'll have no leverage at all'.

What stymied us back in the late 60s when Heath was negotiating in was that full membership was a stated goal: the EEC was therefore able to force an incredibly unfavourable deal (CAP, budget contributions, Fishing rights, commonwealth preference) because the UK had no place to go. I'd imagine the embargo on details is to precisely avoid a repetition of that situation.
As difficult as it may be in the world of 24 hour news, the general public will probably not see a great deal of the terms of discussion for a long while on this one..

Edited by Ridgemont on Tuesday 25th October 09:03

[don4l]

Mrr T said:

So why did you choose 8 years. Might that be because you wanted to include the 2009 AWE figures. The one year where the figure fell sharply because of guess what the economic crash.

Lets take 2010 as a better base line.

So for Q1 2010 to Q1 2016.

AWE = 18.5%

RPI = 11.4%

QED

I can see why you didn't tell us what figures you used.

The RPI was 217.9 in January 2010.
It was 260.6 in January 2016.

Data here...

That is a rise of more than 19%, and not 11.4% as you have stated.

Perhaps you could actually tell us what figures you are using? I
I've provided links to my source data. Why won't you do the same?

[B'stard Child]

don4l said:

Perhaps you could actually tell us what figures you are using? I
I've provided links to my source data. Why won't you do the same?

Because Passporting

[don4l]

B'stard Child said:

don4l said:

Perhaps you could actually tell us what figures you are using? I
I've provided links to my source data. Why won't you do the same?

Because Passporting

[Mrr T]

don4l said:

Mrr T said:

So why did you choose 8 years. Might that be because you wanted to include the 2009 AWE figures. The one year where the figure fell sharply because of guess what the economic crash.

Lets take 2010 as a better base line.

So for Q1 2010 to Q1 2016.

AWE = 18.5%

RPI = 11.4%

QED

I can see why you didn't tell us what figures you used.

The RPI was 217.9 in January 2010.
It was 260.6 in January 2016.

Data here...

That is a rise of more than 19%, and not 11.4% as you have stated.

Perhaps you could actually tell us what figures you are using? I
I've provided links to my source data. Why won't you do the same?

You should have checked both my figures as I got both wrong.

However, below is a summary by year which makes interesting reading.

Figures are % increase to Q1 2016

Start Date------AWE---------------RPI
Q1 2010--------11.8--------------18.5
Q1 2011---------8.6--------------12.6
Q1 2012---------7.9---------------8.5
Q1 2013---------7.4---------------5.0
Q1 2014---------5.4---------------2.4
Q1 2015---------3.0---------------1.4

Sorry about having to show the table like that but if I leave spaces they disappear on posting.

Edited by Mrr T on Tuesday 25th October 11:01

Edited by Mrr T on Tuesday 25th October 11:10

[Mrr T]

don4l said:

B'stard Child said:

don4l said:

Perhaps you could actually tell us what figures you are using? I
I've provided links to my source data. Why won't you do the same?

Because Passporting

Thanks I forgot don4l had researched passporting under MIFID 2 and come to a completely different opinion than that given in the presentation I attended given by a partner from a major law firm. So don4l do you want me to send the the details of the partner so you can contact them to explain why they have misunderstood the regulations?

[Biker 1]

I just read this interesting article - perhaps we're not doomed after all: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/24/swe...

[B'stard Child]

Mrr T said:

You should have checked both my figures as I got both wrong.

However, below is a summary by year which makes interesting reading.

Figures are % increase to Q1 2016

Start Date------AWE---------------RPI
Q1 2010--------11.8--------------18.5
Q1 2011---------8.6--------------12.6
Q1 2012---------7.9---------------8.5
Q1 2013---------7.4---------------5.0
Q1 2014---------5.4---------------2.4
Q1 2015---------3.0---------------1.4

Sorry about having to show the table like that but if I leave spaces they disappear on posting.

Would you accept the offer of help on formatting

|| is the key to tables

Put that before and after every element of the table

ie

||Start Date||AWE||RPI||
||Q1 2010||11.8||18.5||

and you get this....

Start Date	AWE	RPI
Q1 2010	11.8	18.5
Q1 2011	8.6	12.6
Q1 2012	7.9	8.5
Q1 2013	7.4	5.0
Q1 2014	5.4	2.4
Q1 2015	3.0	1.4

Edited to fix the code issue and get it right ("OCD" I may have it!!!)

Edited by B'stard Child on Tuesday 25th October 12:27

[Mrr T]

B'stard Child said:

Would you accept the offer of help on formatting

|| is the key to tables

Put that before and after every element of the table

ie

[code]||Start Date||AWE||RPI||
||Q1 2010||11.8||18.5||[/code]

and you get this....

Start Date	AWE	RPI
Q1 2010	11.8	18.5
Q1 2011	8.6	12.6
Q1 2012	7.9	8.5
Q1 2013	7.4	5.0
Q1 2014	5.4	2.4
Q1 2015	3.0	1.4

Thanks. I had no idea how to do that.

[don4l]

Mrr T said:

don4l said:

Mrr T said:

So why did you choose 8 years. Might that be because you wanted to include the 2009 AWE figures. The one year where the figure fell sharply because of guess what the economic crash.

Lets take 2010 as a better base line.

So for Q1 2010 to Q1 2016.

AWE = 18.5%

RPI = 11.4%

QED

I can see why you didn't tell us what figures you used.

The RPI was 217.9 in January 2010.
It was 260.6 in January 2016.

Data here...

That is a rise of more than 19%, and not 11.4% as you have stated.

Perhaps you could actually tell us what figures you are using? I
I've provided links to my source data. Why won't you do the same?

You should have checked both my figures as I got both wrong.

However, below is a summary by year which makes interesting reading.

Figures are % increase to Q1 2016

Start Date------AWE---------------RPI
Q1 2010--------11.8--------------18.5
Q1 2011---------8.6--------------12.6
Q1 2012---------7.9---------------8.5
Q1 2013---------7.4---------------5.0
Q1 2014---------5.4---------------2.4
Q1 2015---------3.0---------------1.4

Sorry about having to show the table like that but if I leave spaces they disappear on posting.

Edited by Mrr T on Tuesday 25th October 11:01

Edited by Mrr T on Tuesday 25th October 11:10

So, as usual, you have things completely back to front.

[B'stard Child]

Mrr T said:

B'stard Child said:

Would you accept the offer of help on formatting

|| is the key to tables

Put that before and after every element of the table

ie

||Start Date||AWE||RPI||
||Q1 2010||11.8||18.5||

and you get this....

Start Date	AWE	RPI
Q1 2010	11.8	18.5
Q1 2011	8.6	12.6
Q1 2012	7.9	8.5
Q1 2013	7.4	5.0
Q1 2014	5.4	2.4
Q1 2015	3.0	1.4

Thanks. I had no idea how to do that.

Not a problem at all - happy to show someone a better/easier way - this forum has some quite clever coding options that are very different to other forums.

Edited to add - I got the [code] formatting wrong which has made me chuckle - always funny when a smart arse gets it wrong - yes?

Link to coding

It's in the links at the top of every "reply to post"

Edited by B'stard Child on Tuesday 25th October 12:25

[WinstonWolf]

Trabi601 said:

WinstonWolf said:

Well, my share portfolio has just about exploded over the last six months. It's grown like I've never seen it before and I've had it twenty five years.

The economic consequences of Brexit for me have been fking superb

I'm sure ///ajd will try and tell me being a lot better off than I was six months ago is a bad thing, but I'm pleasantly surprised by how spectacularly wrong the doom-mongers have been *for some of us*

Have you thought that you haven't actually made money in reality? - whilst the sterling value of your shares have increased - your buying power in Europe / USA / many other developed countries has probably just about stayed the same. For those without shares, our buying power vs. the rest of the world has decreased. We've made ourselves poorer by voting out.

This is before taking into account the devaluation of sterling in the UK as we print money to prop up a failing economy, savings accounts no longer keeping pace with inflation - and rising prices of goods we import.

We will never bring enough manufacturing back to the UK to compensate us for the devaluation in our buying power when buying imports and we'll never be cheap enough to compete with the developing world.

All I can see is a load of issues being stacked up - food inflation as import costs and fuel costs continue to rise, retailers struggling as the cost of imported goods starts to catch up with the devaluation of sterling and we still haven't found out what the real result of Brexit is going to be - import taxes, trade deals taking years and years to settle.

I'm afraid I cannot see any good coming out of this in the medium to long term.

I have and somewhat unfortunately for your pessimistic point of view I will still be better off. I'm pleasantly surprised at how strong the growth has been.

Manufacturing is, not to put too fine a point on it, a *load of old bks*. We got rid of manufacturing in the Eighties, it's got naff all to do with Brexit.

Sorry, but it's proving to be very beneficial for those of us who have had crap returns on our savings thanks to low interest rates.

[Trabi601]

WinstonWolf said:

I have and somewhat unfortunately for your pessimistic point of view I will still be better off. I'm pleasantly surprised at how strong the growth has been.

Manufacturing is, not to put too fine a point on it, a *load of old bks*. We got rid of manufacturing in the Eighties, it's got naff all to do with Brexit.

Sorry, but it's proving to be very beneficial for those of us who have had crap returns on our savings thanks to low interest rates.

I think you misunderstand my manufacturing point.

Apparently, the crashing value of sterling is going to make us a manufacturing powerhouse again. My point is that it won't happen because we'd have to continue the devaluation to match the developing world to become truly competitive and generate loads of manufacturing jobs.

In the meantime, you and those with shares have made a short term paper gain. But if you want to buy an imported product in Q1 2017 with your paper gains, you'll most likely find you haven't made any gains at all.

I have a fair amount invested in shares, but I know that whatever I'm making is only on paper as real world devaluation vs major currencies means my buying power is being eroded.

My employers buy in dollars and sell in sterling. It's a little stressful right now!

[WinstonWolf]

Trabi601 said:

WinstonWolf said:

I have and somewhat unfortunately for your pessimistic point of view I will still be better off. I'm pleasantly surprised at how strong the growth has been.

Manufacturing is, not to put too fine a point on it, a *load of old bks*. We got rid of manufacturing in the Eighties, it's got naff all to do with Brexit.

Sorry, but it's proving to be very beneficial for those of us who have had crap returns on our savings thanks to low interest rates.

I think you misunderstand my manufacturing point.

Apparently, the crashing value of sterling is going to make us a manufacturing powerhouse again. My point is that it won't happen because we'd have to continue the devaluation to match the developing world to become truly competitive and generate loads of manufacturing jobs.

In the meantime, you and those with shares have made a short term paper gain. But if you want to buy an imported product in Q1 2017 with your paper gains, you'll most likely find you haven't made any gains at all.

I have a fair amount invested in shares, but I know that whatever I'm making is only on paper as real world devaluation vs major currencies means my buying power is being eroded.

My employers buy in dollars and sell in sterling. It's a little stressful right now!

So when the Remoaners were moaning about losses on the stockmarket they were wrong because they were only 'paper losses'?

I'm just trying to get my head around how *every single piece of good news* somehow suddenly becomes bad in your pessimistic world...

[anonymous-user]

glazbagun said:

The other stuff is not exactly talking the country up, but then we haven't heard anything (now months after the vote) about how the government would even like this to pan out, let alone how it will when we come to negotiate with the EU who, as CETA has shown, arent the quickest at getting things done.

We have heard plenty from the Government about what they would like to achieve, you just aren't getting the detail because quite rightly that is all part of the negotiations and it's as much down to the EU and it is to the UK what that negotiation will bring.

May has been clear, the goal is to get the best deal for the UK and the EU to enable free trade in goods and services whilst retaining control over our boarders and whilst not having the ECJ have jurisdiction over UK law.

That by definition means we cant continue to be members of the single market, because to be a member you have to allow the ECJ be the top court. That is why when May discusses this she talks about access to the single market.

That is not hard Brexit, that is not soft Brexit, both are stupid terms with a multitude of possible meanings.

[Trophy Husband]

We will not leave Europe. I still believe that Parliament will not vote for it. It is not in the best interests of the population. Who would sanction a decision so stupid as to damage the economy for at least a generation? I don't give a flying toss if 51.8% of the people who voted want it. I'd love to see the demographic of those who voted out. I'm sure it would make great a great socioeconomic study in years to come. Please excuse my generalisation for those of you who voted out who don't fall into the category but I suggest that the majority of those that voted us out have contributed the least to the prosperity of this great nation.

How can TM broker the best deal for UK when the vote to leave is the biggest slap in the chops for the remainder of the union? Get real people. Yes, of course she can broker the best deal but that only means one thing. A shiite deal but the best that can be achieved. Like going to a cheap restaurant and asking for their finest wine.

Talk about UK manufacturing? Are we talking Honda? Ford? GM? Toyota? JLR? Tata? That is manufacturing in the UK not UK manufacturing.

I'm in my late 40's and my sons are 6 and 4. I worry for their future and I'm right to. I'm sure it has been said here many times but I for one am ashamed of the people I know who voted to leave and remain so. My difficulty is that I am not responsible for the decision but may have to suffer the consequences for years and years to come. I'd rather not be looking at saying 'I told you so' ad infinitum for the rest of my days. Here's hoping this has all been a dreadful nightmare.

[s2art]

Trophy Husband said:

We will not leave Europe. I still believe that Parliament will not vote for it. It is not in the best interests of the population. Who would sanction a decision so stupid as to damage the economy for at least a generation? I don't give a flying toss if 51.8% of the people who voted want it. I'd love to see the demographic of those who voted out. I'm sure it would make great a great socioeconomic study in years to come. Please excuse my generalisation for those of you who voted out who don't fall into the category but I suggest that the majority of those that voted us out have contributed the least to the prosperity of this great nation.

How can TM broker the best deal for UK when the vote to leave is the biggest slap in the chops for the remainder of the union? Get real people. Yes, of course she can broker the best deal but that only means one thing. A shiite deal but the best that can be achieved. Like going to a cheap restaurant and asking for their finest wine.

Talk about UK manufacturing? Are we talking Honda? Ford? GM? Toyota? JLR? Tata? That is manufacturing in the UK not UK manufacturing.

I'm in my late 40's and my sons are 6 and 4. I worry for their future and I'm right to. I'm sure it has been said here many times but I for one am ashamed of the people I know who voted to leave and remain so. My difficulty is that I am not responsible for the decision but may have to suffer the consequences for years and years to come. I'd rather not be looking at saying 'I told you so' ad infinitum for the rest of my days. Here's hoping this has all been a dreadful nightmare.

Epic bedwetting.

[anonymous-user]

Wake up, its not a dream, it's real.

Democracy is a bh isn't it. You may not like the result but its the best system known to man (and woman).

We are not leaving Europe, we are leaving the EU.

[Hosenbugler]

Trophy Husband said:

We will not leave Europe. I still believe that Parliament will not vote for it. It is not in the best interests of the population. Who would sanction a decision so stupid as to damage the economy for at least a generation? I don't give a flying toss if 51.8% of the people who voted want it. I'd love to see the demographic of those who voted out. I'm sure it would make great a great socioeconomic study in years to come. Please excuse my generalisation for those of you who voted out who don't fall into the category but I suggest that the majority of those that voted us out have contributed the least to the prosperity of this great nation.
How can TM broker the best deal for UK when the vote to leave is the biggest slap in the chops for the remainder of the union? Get real people. Yes, of course she can broker the best deal but that only means one thing. A shiite deal but the best that can be achieved. Like going to a cheap restaurant and asking for their finest wine.
Talk about UK manufacturing? Are we talking Honda? Ford? GM? Toyota? JLR? Tata? That is manufacturing in the UK not UK manufacturing.
I'm in my late 40's and my sons are 6 and 4. I worry for their future and I'm right to. I'm sure it has been said here many times but I for one am ashamed of the people I know who voted to leave and remain so. My difficulty is that I am not responsible for the decision but may have to suffer the consequences for years and years to come. I'd rather not be looking at saying 'I told you so' ad infinitum for the rest of my days. Here's hoping this has all been a dreadful nightmare.

We will not leave Europe, we will, however leave the EU.

Parliament have no need to vote on anything, they asked the electorate to make a decision for them on a specific subject, they did.

You are just another who likes democracy when it agrees with you views.