The economic consequences of Brexit

[sidicks]

RYH64E said:

Net profit is entirely unaffected by the rate of corporation tax.

So you don't think that, in general, lower corporation tax is likely to lead to higher dividends and hence higher income tax?

Er, right, ok.

[alfie2244]

///ajd said:

Trophy Husband said:

So where's my better half when I need her?

Honey I'm home

[Jockman]

Trabi601 said:

Jockman said:

Trabi601 said:

sidicks said:

Trabi601 said:

So, given the way sterling has tanked, the rise in prices will just be counteracted by reducing import duties. That's if there's any motivation for doing it at all. Tax money has to come from somewhere - reducing duty and cutting corporation tax has to be funded from elsewhere.

What happens to the increased net profits that arise from lower corporation tax?

Perhaps you can tell me, as there is no single answer to fit all circumstances.

Do you know of a tax free way of extracting these profits?

There are tax minimising ways to extract money.

So all you've achieved is to move the line at which people avoid taxation and change the method of doing so!

Thereby negating your original concern vis a vis reduced intake whilst simultaneously attracting enormous new business into the UK.

The Oirish ain't stupid.

[loafer123]

sidicks said:

RYH64E said:

Net profit is entirely unaffected by the rate of corporation tax.

So you don't think that, in general, lower corporation tax is likely to lead to higher dividends and hence higher income tax?

Er, right, ok.

I believe you are better informed than the above indicates.

Net Profit is a measure of profit before tax.

Lower Corporation Tax does, as you say, lead to higher divi and income tax receipts.

Both are compatible statements.

[sidicks]

loafer123 said:

I believe you are better informed than the above indicates.

Net Profit is a measure of profit before tax.

Lower Corporation Tax does, as you say, lead to higher divi and income tax receipts.

Both are compatible statements.

Maybe you missed the sarcasm implicit in my post?

[RYH64E]

sidicks said:

RYH64E said:

Net profit is entirely unaffected by the rate of corporation tax.

So you don't think that, in general, lower corporation tax is likely to lead to higher dividends and hence higher income tax?

Er, right, ok.

Maybe so, but net profit remains the same.

[sidicks]

RYH64E said:

Maybe so, but net profit remains the same.

How are you defining net profit?

I think it was fairly obvious that in my post I was referring to profit net of tax?

[Jockman]

RYH64E said:

Maybe so, but net profit remains the same.

You're missing the nuances.

A Company facing a corp tax rate of 20% will invariably display a different net profit to that when facing CT of 10%.

I certainly would.

[RYH64E]

sidicks said:

RYH64E said:

Maybe so, but net profit remains the same.

How are you defining net profit?

In the conventional way, sales less cost of sales equals gross profit, less expenses equals net profit, on which you pay corporation tax, then issue dividends and what's left is retained profit.

[Murph7355]

Jockman said:

Trabi601 said:

....reducing duty and cutting corporation tax has to be funded from elsewhere.

Not necessarily true. A lower tax RATE can lead to an increased tax INTAKE.

There is a strong argument to suggest that individual tax rates aren't that important.

Overall tax intake for the country varies little from something like 38% of GDP. So if we want more money, we should be focussing on increasing GDP. Adjusting the %ages of individual tax rates doesn't really alter this - it's just politicking

[Jockman]

Murph7355 said:

Jockman said:

Trabi601 said:

....reducing duty and cutting corporation tax has to be funded from elsewhere.

Not necessarily true. A lower tax RATE can lead to an increased tax INTAKE.

There is a strong argument to suggest that individual tax rates aren't that important.

Overall tax intake for the country varies little from something like 38% of GDP. So if we want more money, we should be focussing on increasing GDP. Adjusting the %ages of individual tax rates doesn't really alter this - it's just politicking

Andy, would you not agree that allowing people to keep more of their income would influence GDP?

[sidicks]

Murph7355 said:

There is a strong argument to suggest that individual tax rates aren't that important.

Overall tax intake for the country varies little from something like 38% of GDP. So if we want more money, we should be focussing on increasing GDP. Adjusting the %ages of individual tax rates doesn't really alter this - it's just politicking

Lower corporation tax will increase shareholder income and hence income tax receipts, without changing the tax rates.

[RYH64E]

Jockman said:

Andy, would you not agree that allowing people to keep more of their income would influence GDP?

In which case lower personal taxes, then maybe people like me wouldn't allow so much money to build up in reserves. This year, and most years, I've not taken 10% of the net profit, it sits in the company bank account doing nothing because I begrudge paying half of it to HMRC in income tax.

[Jockman]

RYH64E said:

Jockman said:

Andy, would you not agree that allowing people to keep more of their income would influence GDP?

In which case lower personal taxes, then maybe people like me wouldn't allow so much money to build up in reserves. This year, and most years, I've not taken 10% of the net profit, it sits in the company bank account doing nothing because I begrudge paying half of it to HMRC in income tax.

Your cashflow essentially sits in your bank account, your retained profits sit in your capital & reserves. I know what you mean though

All eligible for ER at 10% in your exit strategy (be wary of excessive surplus cash if this is your plan).

[RYH64E]

Jockman said:

All eligible for ER at 10% in your exit strategy (be wary of excessive surplus cash if this is your plan).

It's plan A, providing the rules don't change.

[don4l]

mike9009 said:

don4l said:

I apologise for the tone of my reply above. I cannot see any justification for it. Sorry.


Business is very good at the moment.

Imports are costing more, so I have had to put up prices. This isn't a problem as all of my competitors are in the same boat. Domestic customers are either understanding, or unaware of the price rises.

On the export front, it feels busier. However, we don't do a huge amount, so it will take some time to be certain.

However, for July-Sept the figures do look pretty convincing.

July-Sept 2016 Thirteen orders with a value of £20.7k

July-Sept 2015, Five orders with a total value of £10.09k.


So, although the figures are low, they do seem to be pretty convincing.

Our overall profit margins are up.

October isn't quite over yet, but it is already the best month that we have had in two years. September was also quite good.

Cheers Don, appreciate your honesty - glad things are going well. Just to add to the current debate on car tariff, I found this graph quite useful.




Source

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105...

From basic maths it looks like we import approx. £30 billion EU cars generating £3 billion of HMRC revenue if WTO come in.

We export £12 billion into the EU, costing the UK motor industry £1.2 billion under WTO tariffs.

It looks like WTO could be quite a good deal for the UK in term of car manufacturing. Demand may decrease for EU cars in the UK admittedly, but the gov 'could' subsidise UK manufacture and UK prices??

The drop in the £ may also swing things in different directions.



Mike

PS I am a remoaner!
PPS I have probably missed something obvious too

I don't think so.

I think that I have become fixated with the idea that not a single Remainer is willing to look at reality.

I'm not afraid to admit when I am wrong.

I like to think that I judge every post on its merits. In this case I failed.


Earlier, I gave you our figures for July-Sept.

October looks set to be even better. Usually we would get one or two orders a day. Today we had 6 orders.

However, tomorrow we might have none.

I have a friend who runs a janatorial supplies company. Basically he sells bog rolls and cleaning products. His average order value is very low. He processes about 80 orders a day. He is in a very good position to tell if conditions are changing.

I only process one or two high value orders a day, so it will take me a lot of time before I can be sure if the Brexit vote has had an impact on my business.

I could lose £20k next month, but then make £50k the following month.

The first few years that I was in business were very scary. Each year, by September, we would be £50k down. However, we always ended up in profit by the end of year (March 31st).

Our customers were mainly government. In April they had not yet sorted out their budgets. They started going on holiday by the middle of June. Holidays didn't finish until the middle of September. At this point, we were seriously in the red.

October and November would be fantastic. December and January both had a lot of holidays. Then, in February and March, everyone would desperatly scramble to spend their budgets.

Every year we ended up in profit.

It took 4 or 5 years to get used to the roller-coaster effect.

[dandarez]

alfie2244 said:

///ajd said:

Trophy Husband said:

So where's my better half when I need her?

Honey I'm home

So appropriate!

[B'stard Child]

dandarez said:

alfie2244 said:

///ajd said:

Trophy Husband said:

So where's my better half when I need her?

Honey I'm home

So appropriate!

I'd missed that - thanks for the bump

• not chuckling at all - nope not at...................... all

[///ajd]

B'stard Child said:

///ajd said:

Beautifully put.

Ahh Hello ///ajd you are back - I've missed you

Genuinely pleased about the Nissan news. After all we all want whats good for the UK at the end of the day.

It does look like there was a PM deal - it is interesting how carefully they have chosen their words. No special deal = all car makers will get the same promise.

I don't doubt that the govt could use import tariffs to fund it if we do end up WTO, but ultimately remember of course it will be the consumer paying and it is bad for choice.

That EUR50,000 BMW will not only be theoretically £45,000 instead of £35,000 due to FOREX, but also may carry a 10% £4500 tariff. That's a nearly £10k difference, that you or I may end up paying if you want one - some of which may subsidise a Qashqai. This is not reflected in any prices yet.

It would also be rather counter to the anti-protectionist free trade rhetoric being pushed. On the one hand this does suggest a softer brexit may be the aim, but on the other hand there is still the issue of the external tariff with such an option.

The only certainty is it will be complex. I also think the WTO has little choice but to say "he will try and make things simple". He is clear that the UK will need to renegotiate its position with the WTO - that much has been proven to be true as predicted. Is it really straightforward? That depends on your point of view. It could be as simple and straightforward as other trade deals.....

[loafer123]

I do not get why you think the WTO issue is complex.

We simply will become members of the WTO like the US or China, instead of having the EU acting as our agent.

When you made this a big issue before, saying the UK wasn't a member, I simply went onto their website and the position was instantly clear.