The economic consequences of Brexit
Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit
Total Members Polled: 732
Discussion
Trabi601 said:
London424 said:
Why does it matter?
I didn't bring it up. The Brexiteers did.They seem to think the devaluation is a good thing. Unless it impacts something they think we should be proud of - such as our GDP ranking, for instance.
As a collective society we are getting poorer - the price increases on imports are starting to bite, we're also seeing price increases on UK produced goods which have their profit centre elsewhere - targets still have to be met, even if your revenue is falling on the back of sterling's crash.
It's like turkeys voting for Christmas.
You were proved incorrect by both jsf and myself with figures from NOW.
Trabi601 said:
Mr GrimNasty said:
Your language projects your own prejudices and bitterness, clearly you want to run the UK into the dirt unless we are prepared to conform to your political vision.
Voting for brexit expresses no desire to be insular (quite the reverse) or dictate anything to anyone, and voters fully expected it to have some inconvenient repercussions - but when you have gone a long way down a wrong road it is a weary trudge back to the right path.
But insignificant? Expected 5th largest global nominal GDP (IMF) for this year, and 2nd in Olympics medal list, and English the universal language etc. etc. - you really are in absolute delusional denial. The UK is a global powerhouse and beacon and punches far above its weight.
Wel, we are now falling down the GDP table as our currency is 'readjusting'. I reckon we are just below India now.Voting for brexit expresses no desire to be insular (quite the reverse) or dictate anything to anyone, and voters fully expected it to have some inconvenient repercussions - but when you have gone a long way down a wrong road it is a weary trudge back to the right path.
But insignificant? Expected 5th largest global nominal GDP (IMF) for this year, and 2nd in Olympics medal list, and English the universal language etc. etc. - you really are in absolute delusional denial. The UK is a global powerhouse and beacon and punches far above its weight.
We've been told by the Brexiteers our currency was over valued, but then told we are some kind of powerhouse because of our distorted GDP.
The interesting one is the GDP per capita based on standard of living, we don't do so well there. This again is only going to get worse as our currency falters.
Bringing the Olympics into this is a moot point as it's widely accepted we over invested in elite sports. It's cyclical, we will get a phase of under investment followed by a national crisis when we fail at a games in the future.
gavsdavs said:
Are you new here ?
The established sentiment in this thread is....
1. A fall in the value of GBP is *a good thing* and was always needed.
2. A fall in the value of GBP doesn't matter a jot *because I'm alright jack* and "nobody buys Apple anyway, they should buy British"
3. A fall in the value of GBP is only a thing "a Bremoaner" would mention (amirite ?)
(joking).
https://fullfact.org/economy/exchange-rates-and-imf/The established sentiment in this thread is....
1. A fall in the value of GBP is *a good thing* and was always needed.
2. A fall in the value of GBP doesn't matter a jot *because I'm alright jack* and "nobody buys Apple anyway, they should buy British"
3. A fall in the value of GBP is only a thing "a Bremoaner" would mention (amirite ?)
(joking).
Funkycoldribena said:
Trabi601 said:
Marmite is up 12.5% at Morrisons. The first supermarket to pass on the price increase.
I hope all you Brexiteers are suitably pleased with what you've done
Remain missed a trick there..I hope all you Brexiteers are suitably pleased with what you've done
If only they'd had a bus with that on it..
I wonder if it would have been loved or hated.
s2art said:
gavsdavs said:
Are you new here ?
The established sentiment in this thread is....
1. A fall in the value of GBP is *a good thing* and was always needed.
2. A fall in the value of GBP doesn't matter a jot *because I'm alright jack* and "nobody buys Apple anyway, they should buy British"
3. A fall in the value of GBP is only a thing "a Bremoaner" would mention (amirite ?)
(joking).
https://fullfact.org/economy/exchange-rates-and-imf/The established sentiment in this thread is....
1. A fall in the value of GBP is *a good thing* and was always needed.
2. A fall in the value of GBP doesn't matter a jot *because I'm alright jack* and "nobody buys Apple anyway, they should buy British"
3. A fall in the value of GBP is only a thing "a Bremoaner" would mention (amirite ?)
(joking).
4. Even if the pound was overvalued and loads of stuff is going to get a lot more expensive for consumers, we always had it coming and we shouldn't comment on it. Because it upsets people and they'll spam you with links about it.
The EU is going to have a shortfall in its budget, partly responsible is the Pound Euro change rate, it looks like the cost of membership has gone up, along with calls for an increase in the budget for every country due to overspend, it looks like the amount painted on the side of a bus might be on the low side.
Trabi601 said:
I didn't bring it up. The Brexiteers did.
They seem to think the devaluation is a good thing. Unless it impacts something they think we should be proud of - such as our GDP ranking, for instance.
As a collective society we are getting poorer - the price increases on imports are starting to bite, we're also seeing price increases on UK produced goods which have their profit centre elsewhere - targets still have to be met, even if your revenue is falling on the back of sterling's crash.
It's like turkeys voting for Christmas.
Well, according to one, Mervyn King, the fall in sterling is a good thing. They seem to think the devaluation is a good thing. Unless it impacts something they think we should be proud of - such as our GDP ranking, for instance.
As a collective society we are getting poorer - the price increases on imports are starting to bite, we're also seeing price increases on UK produced goods which have their profit centre elsewhere - targets still have to be met, even if your revenue is falling on the back of sterling's crash.
It's like turkeys voting for Christmas.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/10/f...
“The economy was slowing somewhat before the vote and we are in a position where the rest of the world is not offering us much help.
“So, from that point of view the fall in sterling is a welcome change.”
There we go, he is on record as to attempting to force a drop in sterling while in office, but failed to do so.
Mind you, what on earth could he know.
Trabi601 said:
London424 said:
Why does it matter?
I didn't bring it up. The Brexiteers did.They seem to think the devaluation is a good thing. Unless it impacts something they think we should be proud of - such as our GDP ranking, for instance.
As a collective society we are getting poorer - the price increases on imports are starting to bite, we're also seeing price increases on UK produced goods which have their profit centre elsewhere - targets still have to be met, even if your revenue is falling on the back of sterling's crash.
It's like turkeys voting for Christmas.
PRTVR said:
The EU is going to have a shortfall in its budget, partly responsible is the Pound Euro change rate, it looks like the cost of membership has gone up, along with calls for an increase in the budget for every country due to overspend, it looks like the amount painted on the side of a bus might be on the low side.
Our contributions are linked to our GDP in Euros, the exchange rate movement will lower our contributions, would be ironic if we became a net beneficiary but unlikely to happen.As for Apple price increases, previous generations had to safeguard the freedom of this country using bayonets, an extra £500 for a poncey bit of electronics doesn't compare.
The devaluation in Sterling, whilst maybe not immediately apparent, will be the killer for the economy in the short to mid term.
Glaxo posted fabulous results this week, but they report in Sterling, so the devaluation is a massive benefit to them. But those that trade and report in USD/Euro's (or if they are UK based, have to buy raw materials in USD/Euros), just won't swallow a >15% cut in their UK margin (I would expect a lot will be negative, or very close, at the moment).
And even if they could swallow it in the UK, they won't want the extra hurt from European retailers buying in the UK at >15% lower cost prices, then shipping back in to Europe.
So far, it looks like a lot of manufacturers/suppliers are going to hang on through the Christmas period so they don't hurt volumes, but we're already seeing some companies move - Lever & Apple have made the news, but there's much more happening in the background that will never make the papers or BBC.com.
We are going to see the cost of a huge proportion of what we buy increase... and not just by a few percent. It won't be an immediate 'EVERYTHING HAS GONE UP 20%!!!!' thing, but over the next year, prices will increase. As more suppliers move, more will jump on the bandwagon, and Tesco/JS/Asda/Morrisons can't go on stop ship with everyone.
Of course inflation isn't necessarily a bad thing, up to a point. But we have very tight controls in place on public sector pay and social spending - which is going to result in a large proportion of the population suffering as the cost of everyday essentials increases. And the private sector, already under profit pressure due to the currency impact, won't be able to increase wages as fast as prices either.
So we'll have inflation and depressed demand. But we can't cut interest rates further (or more QE) to drive demand as Sterling will fall further... and we can't raise interest rates to bolster Sterling as this will further kill demand.
Maybe not the immediate crash/disaster predicted by the remainers, but it's going to get very, very painful for the average family over the next 12 months.
Glaxo posted fabulous results this week, but they report in Sterling, so the devaluation is a massive benefit to them. But those that trade and report in USD/Euro's (or if they are UK based, have to buy raw materials in USD/Euros), just won't swallow a >15% cut in their UK margin (I would expect a lot will be negative, or very close, at the moment).
And even if they could swallow it in the UK, they won't want the extra hurt from European retailers buying in the UK at >15% lower cost prices, then shipping back in to Europe.
So far, it looks like a lot of manufacturers/suppliers are going to hang on through the Christmas period so they don't hurt volumes, but we're already seeing some companies move - Lever & Apple have made the news, but there's much more happening in the background that will never make the papers or BBC.com.
We are going to see the cost of a huge proportion of what we buy increase... and not just by a few percent. It won't be an immediate 'EVERYTHING HAS GONE UP 20%!!!!' thing, but over the next year, prices will increase. As more suppliers move, more will jump on the bandwagon, and Tesco/JS/Asda/Morrisons can't go on stop ship with everyone.
Of course inflation isn't necessarily a bad thing, up to a point. But we have very tight controls in place on public sector pay and social spending - which is going to result in a large proportion of the population suffering as the cost of everyday essentials increases. And the private sector, already under profit pressure due to the currency impact, won't be able to increase wages as fast as prices either.
So we'll have inflation and depressed demand. But we can't cut interest rates further (or more QE) to drive demand as Sterling will fall further... and we can't raise interest rates to bolster Sterling as this will further kill demand.
Maybe not the immediate crash/disaster predicted by the remainers, but it's going to get very, very painful for the average family over the next 12 months.
don4l said:
Trabi601 said:
Marmite is up 12.5% at Morrisons. The first supermarket to pass on the price increase.
I hope all you Brexiteers are suitably pleased with what you've done
Morrisons you say.I hope all you Brexiteers are suitably pleased with what you've done
It is unfortunate that the poorest get hit hardest.
Anarchy I tell you..
Chris Stott said:
The devaluation in Sterling, whilst maybe not immediately apparent, will be the killer for the economy in the short to mid term.
Glaxo posted fabulous results this week, but they report in Sterling, so the devaluation is a massive benefit to them. But those that trade and report in USD/Euro's (or if they are UK based, have to buy raw materials in USD/Euros), just won't swallow a >15% cut in their UK margin (I would expect a lot will be negative, or very close, at the moment).
And even if they could swallow it in the UK, they won't want the extra hurt from European retailers buying in the UK at >15% lower cost prices, then shipping back in to Europe.
So far, it looks like a lot of manufacturers/suppliers are going to hang on through the Christmas period so they don't hurt volumes, but we're already seeing some companies move - Lever & Apple have made the news, but there's much more happening in the background that will never make the papers or BBC.com.
We are going to see the cost of a huge proportion of what we buy increase... and not just by a few percent. It won't be an immediate 'EVERYTHING HAS GONE UP 20%!!!!' thing, but over the next year, prices will increase. As more suppliers move, more will jump on the bandwagon, and Tesco/JS/Asda/Morrisons can't go on stop ship with everyone.
Of course inflation isn't necessarily a bad thing, up to a point. But we have very tight controls in place on public sector pay and social spending - which is going to result in a large proportion of the population suffering as the cost of everyday essentials increases. And the private sector, already under profit pressure due to the currency impact, won't be able to increase wages as fast as prices either.
So we'll have inflation and depressed demand. But we can't cut interest rates further (or more QE) to drive demand as Sterling will fall further... and we can't raise interest rates to bolster Sterling as this will further kill demand.
Maybe not the immediate crash/disaster predicted by the remainers, but it's going to get very, very painful for the average family over the next 12 months.
Some interesting points but you can flip those around to make the counter argument quite easily. Glaxo posted fabulous results this week, but they report in Sterling, so the devaluation is a massive benefit to them. But those that trade and report in USD/Euro's (or if they are UK based, have to buy raw materials in USD/Euros), just won't swallow a >15% cut in their UK margin (I would expect a lot will be negative, or very close, at the moment).
And even if they could swallow it in the UK, they won't want the extra hurt from European retailers buying in the UK at >15% lower cost prices, then shipping back in to Europe.
So far, it looks like a lot of manufacturers/suppliers are going to hang on through the Christmas period so they don't hurt volumes, but we're already seeing some companies move - Lever & Apple have made the news, but there's much more happening in the background that will never make the papers or BBC.com.
We are going to see the cost of a huge proportion of what we buy increase... and not just by a few percent. It won't be an immediate 'EVERYTHING HAS GONE UP 20%!!!!' thing, but over the next year, prices will increase. As more suppliers move, more will jump on the bandwagon, and Tesco/JS/Asda/Morrisons can't go on stop ship with everyone.
Of course inflation isn't necessarily a bad thing, up to a point. But we have very tight controls in place on public sector pay and social spending - which is going to result in a large proportion of the population suffering as the cost of everyday essentials increases. And the private sector, already under profit pressure due to the currency impact, won't be able to increase wages as fast as prices either.
So we'll have inflation and depressed demand. But we can't cut interest rates further (or more QE) to drive demand as Sterling will fall further... and we can't raise interest rates to bolster Sterling as this will further kill demand.
Maybe not the immediate crash/disaster predicted by the remainers, but it's going to get very, very painful for the average family over the next 12 months.
WinstonWolf said:
Err, yesterday it was all "Brexit hasn't happened yet", can anyone tell me where the goalposts are today?
Tony Blair's jumper on the left and Nigel Farage's old duffle cost on the right. we might get a decent game in, as long as stinker Juncker doesn't carry out his threat to take his ball home.Digga said:
WinstonWolf said:
Err, yesterday it was all "Brexit hasn't happened yet", can anyone tell me where the goalposts are today?
Tony Blair's jumper on the left and Nigel Farage's old duffle cost on the right. we might get a decent game in, as long as stinker Juncker doesn't carry out his threat to take his ball home.
I can't keep up, one minute it's "Brexit hasn't happened" they you turn your back and it's "That's Brexit's fault that is"...Chris Stott said:
The devaluation in Sterling, whilst maybe not immediately apparent, will be the killer for the economy in the short to mid term.
It was mentioned earlier in the thread but its worth repeating. Sterling was over-valued and skewed due to a few factors all brexit has done is sharply address the over-value and it is now fair-value. If parts of the economy die due to this, it was an unsustainable business model. Generally, the Private sector is not under profit pressure, in the sense that it will harm the host, it will simply reduce returns to shareholders. Unfortunately as capitalism requires an ever expanding and increasing profit figure this is labelled as 'bad' by commentators, I just see it as a normal cyclical occurrence.
As prices go up, peoples spending habits will shift and change, as they did during the extended recession.
In the ashes of old business models, new ones will be created, its healthy, not something to be feared or stopped.
Edited by Carl_Manchester on Friday 28th October 15:58
London424 said:
Chris Stott said:
The devaluation in Sterling, whilst maybe not immediately apparent, will be the killer for the economy in the short to mid term.
Glaxo posted fabulous results this week, but they report in Sterling, so the devaluation is a massive benefit to them. But those that trade and report in USD/Euro's (or if they are UK based, have to buy raw materials in USD/Euros), just won't swallow a >15% cut in their UK margin (I would expect a lot will be negative, or very close, at the moment).
And even if they could swallow it in the UK, they won't want the extra hurt from European retailers buying in the UK at >15% lower cost prices, then shipping back in to Europe.
So far, it looks like a lot of manufacturers/suppliers are going to hang on through the Christmas period so they don't hurt volumes, but we're already seeing some companies move - Lever & Apple have made the news, but there's much more happening in the background that will never make the papers or BBC.com.
We are going to see the cost of a huge proportion of what we buy increase... and not just by a few percent. It won't be an immediate 'EVERYTHING HAS GONE UP 20%!!!!' thing, but over the next year, prices will increase. As more suppliers move, more will jump on the bandwagon, and Tesco/JS/Asda/Morrisons can't go on stop ship with everyone.
Of course inflation isn't necessarily a bad thing, up to a point. But we have very tight controls in place on public sector pay and social spending - which is going to result in a large proportion of the population suffering as the cost of everyday essentials increases. And the private sector, already under profit pressure due to the currency impact, won't be able to increase wages as fast as prices either.
So we'll have inflation and depressed demand. But we can't cut interest rates further (or more QE) to drive demand as Sterling will fall further... and we can't raise interest rates to bolster Sterling as this will further kill demand.
Maybe not the immediate crash/disaster predicted by the remainers, but it's going to get very, very painful for the average family over the next 12 months.
Some interesting points but you can flip those around to make the counter argument quite easily. Glaxo posted fabulous results this week, but they report in Sterling, so the devaluation is a massive benefit to them. But those that trade and report in USD/Euro's (or if they are UK based, have to buy raw materials in USD/Euros), just won't swallow a >15% cut in their UK margin (I would expect a lot will be negative, or very close, at the moment).
And even if they could swallow it in the UK, they won't want the extra hurt from European retailers buying in the UK at >15% lower cost prices, then shipping back in to Europe.
So far, it looks like a lot of manufacturers/suppliers are going to hang on through the Christmas period so they don't hurt volumes, but we're already seeing some companies move - Lever & Apple have made the news, but there's much more happening in the background that will never make the papers or BBC.com.
We are going to see the cost of a huge proportion of what we buy increase... and not just by a few percent. It won't be an immediate 'EVERYTHING HAS GONE UP 20%!!!!' thing, but over the next year, prices will increase. As more suppliers move, more will jump on the bandwagon, and Tesco/JS/Asda/Morrisons can't go on stop ship with everyone.
Of course inflation isn't necessarily a bad thing, up to a point. But we have very tight controls in place on public sector pay and social spending - which is going to result in a large proportion of the population suffering as the cost of everyday essentials increases. And the private sector, already under profit pressure due to the currency impact, won't be able to increase wages as fast as prices either.
So we'll have inflation and depressed demand. But we can't cut interest rates further (or more QE) to drive demand as Sterling will fall further... and we can't raise interest rates to bolster Sterling as this will further kill demand.
Maybe not the immediate crash/disaster predicted by the remainers, but it's going to get very, very painful for the average family over the next 12 months.
Carl_Manchester said:
Chris Stott said:
The devaluation in Sterling, whilst maybe not immediately apparent, will be the killer for the economy in the short to mid term.
It was mentioned earlier in the thread but its worth repeating. Sterling was over-valued and skewed due to a few factors all brexit has done is sharply address the over-value and it is now fair-value. If parts of the economy die due to this, it was an unsustainable business model. WinstonWolf said:
Err, yesterday it was all "Brexit hasn't happened yet", can anyone tell me where the goalposts are today?
Not sure yet, no-ones confirmed which playing field we need to set the goalposts up on.The other problem we have is the referendum, we'll need one to determine which playing field is the most level.
We'll then get calls for a second referendum as the first referendum didn't specify the degrees of level that should have been applied, and didn't include the type of grass which wasn't on the ballot paper, so the lack of options wasn't made clear.
The fact that the groundsman specifically stated that the grass being used was Ryegrass has passed most people by.
Hey ho!
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