The economic consequences of Brexit

The economic consequences of Brexit

Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit

Total Members Polled: 732

Far worse off than EU countries.: 15%
A bit worse off than if we'd stayed in.: 35%
A bit better off than if we'd stayed in.: 41%
Roughly as rich as the Swiss.: 10%
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Author
Discussion

don'tbesilly

13,937 posts

164 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
bmw535i said:
don4l said:
I moved to Camberley in 1984.

I am :cough: reliably informed that it was possible to do 105 mph from the M25 to Junction 4 of the M3 without using the outside lane.

You would be lucky to do more than 50 today.
I blame Brexit.

By the way, just to make you feel better, I was 3 in 1984
I was married in 1984!!!!

That doesn't make me feel better!!!

1990 was a great year - nisi and absolute in same year.....
1983 for me, 34 yrs next July, go me!

Nisi/Absolute? Brexit terminology?

biggrin




B'stard Child

28,441 posts

247 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
B'stard Child said:
bmw535i said:
don4l said:
I moved to Camberley in 1984.

I am :cough: reliably informed that it was possible to do 105 mph from the M25 to Junction 4 of the M3 without using the outside lane.

You would be lucky to do more than 50 today.
I blame Brexit.

By the way, just to make you feel better, I was 3 in 1984
I was married in 1984!!!!

That doesn't make me feel better!!!

1990 was a great year - nisi and absolute in same year.....
1983 for me, 34 yrs next July, go me!
26 years with MKII so I'm catching you up......

don'tbesilly said:
Nisi/Absolute? Brexit terminology?

biggrin
What a good idea

Nisi - Art. 50 declared
Absolute we've left sometime during the two years after Nisi

You never know it could be a quickie D.I.V.O.R.C.E.



stongle

5,910 posts

163 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
And the objective is not getting rinsed by the SWT (in ph speak), which in this case is the EU.

davepoth

29,395 posts

200 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
stongle said:
And the objective is not getting rinsed by the SWT (in ph speak)


?

///ajd

8,964 posts

207 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
Digga said:
walm said:
Digga said:
Only takes one idiot to de-rail a very constructively debated topic. rolleyes

Anyway, back to those OECD figures that Walm kindly dug out - the need for investment in the UK, to get productivity back on track, is what I've been arguing for for some time, because the need and benefit is clear. The derision from some Remainers who think this is tantamount to saying the rest of the economy can somehow replace FS is to ignore the issue, the risks of not addressing it and the benefits of dealing with it properly.
I haven't thought about it very much but how is infrastructure spending linked to Brexit?
Because right now I think I am agreeing with you on one but not the other.
What's the connection?
There needs to be a plan for the UK and getting the rest of the country and the non-FS businesses working better is key. There's rightly a lot of talk about how the FS industry transitions, but there are those (I suspect are in the subset of being Remainers and also working within FS) who don't see the need for the infrastructure spend.

A cursory Google of motorway closures (M6 southbound was such near Middlewich 2 days ago as an example) will highlight just how overcrowded and fragile the road network is.
There is no direct brexit connection.

I actually agree that there are some benefits to infrastructure investment - it can be a good thing.

We didn't need brexit to do it of course - if we'd remained we would have more money to spend on infrastructure so we could have been an even stronger economy, equipping ourselves for a secure future.


powerstroke

10,283 posts

161 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
There is no direct brexit connection.

I actually agree that there are some benefits to infrastructure investment - it can be a good thing.

We didn't need brexit to do it of course - but if we'd brexited sooner we would have had more money to spend on infrastructure so we could have been an even stronger economy, with a lot less red tape equipping ourselves for a secure future with trade deals from all of the major and minor economys
Edited to make sense .

///ajd

8,964 posts

207 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
powerstroke said:
///ajd said:
There is no direct brexit connection.

I actually agree that there are some benefits to infrastructure investment - it can be a good thing.

We didn't need brexit to do it of course - but if we'd brexited sooner we would have had more money to spend on infrastructure so we could have been an even stronger economy, with a lot less red tape equipping ourselves for a secure future with trade deals from all of the major and minor economys
Edited to make sense .
Great! So we're going to be richer?

How much richer? £350m a week?

Do you still believe in Father Christmas too?

Which red tape are we getting rid of first? Just one example will do

This may give you some ideas:

http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien...




powerstroke

10,283 posts

161 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
powerstroke said:
///ajd said:
There is no direct brexit connection.

I actually agree that there are some benefits to infrastructure investment - it can be a good thing.

We didn't need brexit to do it of course - but if we'd brexited sooner we would have had more money to spend on infrastructure so we could have been an even stronger economy, with a lot less red tape equipping ourselves for a secure future with trade deals from all of the major and minor economys
Edited to make sense .
Great! So we're going to be richer?

How much richer? £350m a week?

Do you still believe in Father Christmas too?

Which red tape are we getting rid of first? Just one example will do

This may give you some ideas:

http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien...
Sorry but the earth is round and there is something outside the EU called a world !!

B'stard Child

28,441 posts

247 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
Digga said:
walm said:
Digga said:
Only takes one idiot to de-rail a very constructively debated topic. rolleyes

Anyway, back to those OECD figures that Walm kindly dug out - the need for investment in the UK, to get productivity back on track, is what I've been arguing for for some time, because the need and benefit is clear. The derision from some Remainers who think this is tantamount to saying the rest of the economy can somehow replace FS is to ignore the issue, the risks of not addressing it and the benefits of dealing with it properly.
I haven't thought about it very much but how is infrastructure spending linked to Brexit?
Because right now I think I am agreeing with you on one but not the other.
What's the connection?
There needs to be a plan for the UK and getting the rest of the country and the non-FS businesses working better is key. There's rightly a lot of talk about how the FS industry transitions, but there are those (I suspect are in the subset of being Remainers and also working within FS) who don't see the need for the infrastructure spend.

A cursory Google of motorway closures (M6 southbound was such near Middlewich 2 days ago as an example) will highlight just how overcrowded and fragile the road network is.
There is no direct brexit connection.

I actually agree that there are some benefits to infrastructure investment - it can be a good thing.

We didn't need brexit to do it of course - if we'd remained we would have more money to spend on infrastructure so we could have been an even stronger economy, equipping ourselves for a secure future.
Your vision

In mine

1. In the UK - always on the edge of what used to be the EU the economy would have continued to migrate to London creating further reliance on "casino" investment and returns

2. Manufacturing would continue to be a dirty word - why make stuff when china can make it cheaper

3. The services sector would be expanded to include Maccy D and Burger King as that was a growth industy (not because anybody liked it but only the unemployed could afford it)

4. The "something for nothing" numbers would continue to rise encouraged by the fact that there was no point in trying to work - people from the other side of Europe were doing all the jobs for less than their benefits and still better off (still sending money home) rather than local economies

In the EU

1. With one last ditch attempt to shore up that sinking ship goes for complete union and single management of all states from each of the original state capitals for one month in each - just over 2 years to move round them all.....

2. The EU continued to print more and more money - the banks continued to lend money based on the fact the EU was a stable place and although Debt as a percentage of GDP was a little high everyone had a stake in it so it's not like they were ever going to default - it's too big to fail

And then the people realised that what they thought were 4 freedoms weren't freedoms at all for them

Freedom of movement was just a way of ensuring those old fashioned national identities were broken up and no one had a loyalty to their birth country because they had to leave it to find work

Freedom of Goods was pointless everything came from China and the trade deal that the EU made with china after 23 years of negotiation only put the prices of everything up by a little and no one liked working in factories anyway

Freedom of Services was no longer applicable - everyone received a living allowance and were told how to spend it.

Freedom of Capital was also pointless it was one big state - no-one really used real money except the very old people - payment cards were all you needed everywhere and there was less chance of illness when you kept hold of your card and waved it above the pay point (that old money was very un-hygenic)

Anyway it was illegal to take currency out of the Schengen Zone.

And then it was the silliest thing that set things in motion - a 70 year old grandmother in what used to be known as Greece went to the benefits and savings dispenser and requested to draw 1000 Euro (a small chunk of her savings to bury her recently deceased husband) but there was insufficient funds - the request was denied

The news of no paper money spread quickly locally faceache, ttter, snapslap all from friend to friend - everyone tried to draw out 1000 Euro - some people confirmed it was OK the money was there - others cried out that the money wasn't

All those people spread far and wide made the communication spread from top and botton of the EuSSR.

The banks unable to cope with the demand for the old fashioned money asked the High Council for some paper money to tide them over

The High Council looked in the safe and there wasn't any - the money printers were based in China on holiday until the following week so they told the Banks to lie to the people - it had always worked before...

The banks assured people that there was plenty of the old money if people didn't try to draw it out all at once.... Now the people remembered being told that years before when it turned out to be a lie and some had lost a lot of money back in the day - they also remembered that the bosses that lied also paid themselves lots of money regardless of the fact that little people lost money and there was definately some connection between the government and the banks because the government used the peoples money to shore up the Banks last time.

That was the straw that broke the camel's back - Banks blamed the High Council - they'd lent all the money to them - in an almost French revolutionary moment the people revolted and all the High Council and CEO's of the banks were rounded up and beheaded underneath the Arc d' triumph

I don't think the last thing will happen but it's a bit like Eurovision being number 273 in my list of reasons to leave - bit of guilty pleasure or my room 101 if you like.

PS no-one is gonna read this.....

Edited by B'stard Child on Wednesday 30th November 22:47

davepoth

29,395 posts

200 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/29/donald-...

I found this rather interesting. Despite Mr. Tusk and Ms. Merkel saying "absolutely no negotiation before article 50" it looks like our diplomats have been working the back channel hard - two thirds of the EU heads of state wanted a deal, but they've been slapped down.

Sounds a little bit like divide and conquer to me.

tumble dryer

2,018 posts

128 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
Your vision

In mine

1. In the UK - always on the edge of what used to be the EU the economy would have continued to migrate to London creating further reliance on "casino" investment and returns

2. Manufacturing would continue to be a dirty word - why make stuff when china can make it cheaper

3. The services sector would be expanded to include Maccy D and Burger King as that was a growth industy (not because anybody liked it but only the unemployed could afford it)

4. The "something for nothing" numbers would continue to rise encouraged by the fact that there was no point in trying to work - people from the other side of Europe were doing all the jobs for less than their benefits and still better off (still sending money home) rather than local economies

In the EU

1. With one last ditch attempt to shore up that sinking ship goes for complete union and single management of all states from each of the original state capitals for one month in each - just over 2 years to move round them all.....

2. The EU continued to print more and more money - the banks continued to lend money based on the fact the EU was a stable place and although Debt as a percentage of GDP was a little high everyone had a stake in it so it's not like they were ever going to default - it's too big to fail

And then the people realised that what they thought were 4 freedoms weren't freedoms at all for them

Freedom of movement was just a way of ensuring those old fashioned national identities were broken up and no one had a loyalty to their birth country because they had to leave it to find work

Freedom of Goods was pointless everything came from China and the trade deal that the EU made with china after 23 years of negotiation only put the prices of everything up by a little and no one liked working in factories anyway

Freedom of Services was no longer applicable - everyone received a living allowance and were told how to spend it.

Freedom of Capital was also pointless it was one big state - no-one really used real money except the very old people - payment cards were all you needed everywhere and there was less chance of illness when you kept hold of your card and waved it above the pay point (that old money was very un-hygenic)

Anyway it was illegal to take currency out of the Schengen Zone.

And then it was the silliest thing that set things in motion - a 70 year old grandmother in what used to be known as Greece went to the benefits and savings dispenser and requested to draw 1000 Euro (a small chunk of her savings to bury her recently deceased husband) but there was insufficient funds - the request was denied

The news of no paper money spread quickly locally faceache, ttter, snapslap all from friend to friend - everyone tried to draw out 1000 Euro - some people confirmed it was OK the money was there - others cried out that the money wasn't

All those people spread far and wide made the communication spread from top and botton of the EuSSR.

The banks unable to cope with the demand for the old fashioned money asked the High Council for some paper money to tide them over

The High Council looked in the safe and there wasn't any - the money printers were based in China on holiday until the following week so they told the Banks to lie to the people - it had always worked before...

The banks assured people that there was plenty of the old money if people didn't try to draw it out all at once.... Now the people remembered being told that years before when it turned out to be a lie and some had lost a lot of money back in the day - they also remembered that the bosses that lied also paid themselves lots of money regardless of the fact that little people lost money and there was definately some connection between the government and the banks because the government used the peoples money to shore up the Banks last time.

That was the straw that broke the camel's back - Banks blamed the High Council - they'd lent all the money to them - in an almost French revolutionary moment the people revolted and all the High Council and CEO's of the banks were rounded up and beheaded underneath the Arc d' triumph

I don't think the last thing will happen but it's a bit like Eurovision being number 273 in my list of reasons to leave - bit of guilty pleasure or my room 101 if you like.

PS no-one is gonna read this.....

Edited by B'stard Child on Wednesday 30th November 22:47
I enjoyed that. Sent some thought patterns adrift... smile



powerstroke

10,283 posts

161 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
davepoth said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/29/donald-...

I found this rather interesting. Despite Mr. Tusk and Ms. Merkel saying "absolutely no negotiation before article 50" it looks like our diplomats have been working the back channel hard - two thirds of the EU heads of state wanted a deal, but they've been slapped down.

Sounds a little bit like divide and conquer to me.
Sounds like a call to arms aganst the bully's !!! that cow is going to be out in a few monthes Oh well never mind ...

B'stard Child

28,441 posts

247 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
tumble dryer said:
I enjoyed that. Sent some thought patterns adrift... smile
Glad you did

Ties in nicely with my reason number three biggrin

Reason number 3 for voting leave - I did not know what a future EU will be like - it started as a common market and in 40 years by gradual creep left what it was and became what it is - on that basis a vote for remain is not a vote for the Status Quo as there will be further gradual creep. I'm not keen on slow gradual creep as I manage change in my work life, I prefer a quicker pace to change biggrin


Edited by B'stard Child on Wednesday 30th November 23:34

don'tbesilly

13,937 posts

164 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
tumble dryer said:
I enjoyed that. Sent some thought patterns adrift... smile
Glad you did

Ties in nicely with my reason number three biggrin

Reason number 3 for voting leave - I did not know what a future EU will be like - it started as a common market and in 40 years by gradual evolution left what it was and became what it is - on that basis a vote for remain is not a vote for the Status Quo as there will be further gradual change. I'm not keen on slow gradual change as I manage change in my work life, I prefer a quicker pace biggrin
Could I suggest a minor edit if I could be so bold.

You used the word evolution above,personally I think it should be 'creep'.

I think quite a few who voted Leave would say the 'creep' would continue just as you do,and for many that would have been their number 1 reason.

B'stard Child

28,441 posts

247 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
B'stard Child said:
tumble dryer said:
I enjoyed that. Sent some thought patterns adrift... smile
Glad you did

Ties in nicely with my reason number three biggrin

Reason number 3 for voting leave - I did not know what a future EU will be like - it started as a common market and in 40 years by gradual evolution left what it was and became what it is - on that basis a vote for remain is not a vote for the Status Quo as there will be further gradual change. I'm not keen on slow gradual change as I manage change in my work life, I prefer a quicker pace biggrin
Could I suggest a minor edit if I could be so bold.

You used the word evolution above,personally I think it should be 'creep'.

I think quite a few who voted Leave would say the 'creep' would continue just as you do,and for many that would have been their number 1 reason.
That's a much better word - thanks Youaren'tsilly beer

I used "Evolution" cos I don't do "Evolution", I do "Revolution" - No point (for example if you are losing money as a business*) you need to find the causes and fix them all quick...


* the cause of the losses is frequently a gradual creep biggrin

ukkid35

6,182 posts

174 months

Wednesday 30th November 2016
quotequote all
davepoth said:


?
By the time it's obvious Merkel's actions have saved German pensions from meltdown, few people will remember that she was their saviour.

Digga

40,339 posts

284 months

Thursday 1st December 2016
quotequote all
davepoth said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/29/donald-...

I found this rather interesting. Despite Mr. Tusk and Ms. Merkel saying "absolutely no negotiation before article 50" it looks like our diplomats have been working the back channel hard - two thirds of the EU heads of state wanted a deal, but they've been slapped down.

Sounds a little bit like divide and conquer to me.
This is one tactic I suspect - and perhaps it's just too much time spent watching Yes Minister - British politicians and diplomats are exceedingly adept at.

loafer123

15,448 posts

216 months

Thursday 1st December 2016
quotequote all
Digga said:
This is one tactic I suspect - and perhaps it's just too much time spent watching Yes Minister - British politicians and diplomats are exceedingly adept at.
You might think so, sir. I couldn't possibly comment.

Digga

40,339 posts

284 months

Thursday 1st December 2016
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
Digga said:
This is one tactic I suspect - and perhaps it's just too much time spent watching Yes Minister - British politicians and diplomats are exceedingly adept at.
You might think so, sir. I couldn't possibly comment.
hehe

You don't need to be in the EU to mess it up from the inside. wink

SilverSixer

8,202 posts

152 months

Thursday 1st December 2016
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
EuSSR
Oh dear.

Using that ridiculous meme renders just about everything else you say inadmissible.

Equating the EU with the USSR is simply not a serious position to take.

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