The economic consequences of Brexit
Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit
Total Members Polled: 732
Discussion
davepoth said:
I agree. There's very little paperwork to do to ship to most places these days. It's only when you're shipping to more esoteric locations that it gets tricky.
The Middle East can be a pain. Vivid memories of pleading with Chambers of Commerce to Certify a CoO and Bill of Lading (in English & Arabic) at 4.50pm on a Friday in order to have it ready for presentation for a LC on Monday morning still brings a twitch to the eye.I don't know if it still the case but some countries you had to get the Embassy to Certify as well after the CoC.
http://news.sky.com/story/ministers-pressing-for-l...
The problem that needs addressing isn't low skilled immigrants willing to work, it's the low skilled British not willing to work ...
The problem that needs addressing isn't low skilled immigrants willing to work, it's the low skilled British not willing to work ...
PurpleMoonlight said:
http://news.sky.com/story/ministers-pressing-for-l...
The problem that needs addressing isn't low skilled immigrants willing to work, it's the low skilled British not willing to work ...
The problem that needs addressing is our Chav breeding program AKA welfare where benefits are doled out to the feckless to breed the next generation of useless spongers.. The problem that needs addressing isn't low skilled immigrants willing to work, it's the low skilled British not willing to work ...
we also need to make manual and low skiled work pay and respect those who do it ... our stupid attitude that you need a degree to get anywhere is very destructive , a hospital cleaner is no less important than a surgeon if the patient dies from an infection ....
I've not dipped into this thread for quite a while but thought I'd add some real world experience I came across on Friday night. Our neighbours popped round for dinner, we're new to the area and it was the second time we'd all met. A few drinks in with tongues loosened we eventually got round to chatting about Brexit.
The husband comes from a local working class background, had a good idea and started what is now a manufacturing business decades ago with his grandad's meagre life savings. Company now turns over £50m+ annually and contributes £1m+ in Corp tax to the exchequer. 50% of his business is selling in the UK and the rest is in europe. In a nutshell, anything other than an absolute declaration by the government that we'll be staying in the single market with no tarrifs, will kill it dead. He's already being squeezed by the increased cost of importing raw materials meaning his UK margins are minimal and eventually he'll be forced to raise prices. And the moment A50 is triggered where we don't know the outcome or even what the government is aiming for, he said his euro business is dead too as given the timescale of the work/product they deliver and the uncertainty over what tarriffs (or not) there may be on their main raw material, he can't quote a competitive or reliable price to customers so their business will go to companies based in Belgium/Italy etc.
He's frantically trying to see if he can set up a new company in a European country he has his eye on and move the vast majority of his business there. That's the best case scenario but he reckoned it was 50/50 as to whether he could do it. So he might be okay personally (if you can call losing a business you've invested your entire life in "okay"), but most/all of his UK workforce will lose their job and the exchequer will lose his Corp tax etc. With the icing on the brexit s
t cake being if his new business in the EU does make it, it'll be them that receive the Corp tax money etc rather than the UK government.
The husband comes from a local working class background, had a good idea and started what is now a manufacturing business decades ago with his grandad's meagre life savings. Company now turns over £50m+ annually and contributes £1m+ in Corp tax to the exchequer. 50% of his business is selling in the UK and the rest is in europe. In a nutshell, anything other than an absolute declaration by the government that we'll be staying in the single market with no tarrifs, will kill it dead. He's already being squeezed by the increased cost of importing raw materials meaning his UK margins are minimal and eventually he'll be forced to raise prices. And the moment A50 is triggered where we don't know the outcome or even what the government is aiming for, he said his euro business is dead too as given the timescale of the work/product they deliver and the uncertainty over what tarriffs (or not) there may be on their main raw material, he can't quote a competitive or reliable price to customers so their business will go to companies based in Belgium/Italy etc.
He's frantically trying to see if he can set up a new company in a European country he has his eye on and move the vast majority of his business there. That's the best case scenario but he reckoned it was 50/50 as to whether he could do it. So he might be okay personally (if you can call losing a business you've invested your entire life in "okay"), but most/all of his UK workforce will lose their job and the exchequer will lose his Corp tax etc. With the icing on the brexit s
t cake being if his new business in the EU does make it, it'll be them that receive the Corp tax money etc rather than the UK government. Edited by Mario149 on Sunday 4th December 08:22
Mario149 said:
I've not dipped into this thread for quite a while but thought I'd add some real world experience I came across on Friday night. Our neighbours popped round for dinner, we're new to the area and it was the second time we'd all met. A few drinks in with tongues loosened we eventually got round to chatting about Brexit.
The husband comes from a local working class background, had a good idea and started what is now a manufacturing business 25+ years ago with his grandad's meagre life savings. Company now turns over £50m+ annually and contributes £1m+ in Corp tax to the exchequer. 50% of his business is selling in the UK and the rest is in europe. In a nutshell, anything other than an absolute declaration by the government that we'll be staying in the single market with no tarrifs, will kill it dead. He's already being squeezed by the increased cost of importing raw materials meaning his UK margins are minimal and eventually he'll be forced to raise prices. And the moment A50 is triggered where we don't know the outcome or even what the government is aiming for, he said his euro business is dead too as given the timescale of the work/product they deliver and the uncertainty over what tarriffs (or not) there may be on their main raw material, he can't quote a competitive or reliable price to customers so their business will go to companies based in Belgium/Italy etc.
He's frantically trying to see if he can set up a new company in a European country he has his eye on and move the vast majority of his business there. That's the best case scenario but he reckoned it was 50/50 as to whether he could do it. So he might be okay personally (if you can call losing a business you've invested your entire life in "okay"), but most/all of his UK workforce will lose their job and the exchequer will lose his Corp tax etc. With the icing on the brexit st cake being if his new business in the EU does make it, it'll be them that receive the Corp tax money etc rather than the UK government.
Yes best if he moves the business obviously going to be fThe husband comes from a local working class background, had a good idea and started what is now a manufacturing business 25+ years ago with his grandad's meagre life savings. Company now turns over £50m+ annually and contributes £1m+ in Corp tax to the exchequer. 50% of his business is selling in the UK and the rest is in europe. In a nutshell, anything other than an absolute declaration by the government that we'll be staying in the single market with no tarrifs, will kill it dead. He's already being squeezed by the increased cost of importing raw materials meaning his UK margins are minimal and eventually he'll be forced to raise prices. And the moment A50 is triggered where we don't know the outcome or even what the government is aiming for, he said his euro business is dead too as given the timescale of the work/product they deliver and the uncertainty over what tarriffs (or not) there may be on their main raw material, he can't quote a competitive or reliable price to customers so their business will go to companies based in Belgium/Italy etc.
He's frantically trying to see if he can set up a new company in a European country he has his eye on and move the vast majority of his business there. That's the best case scenario but he reckoned it was 50/50 as to whether he could do it. So he might be okay personally (if you can call losing a business you've invested your entire life in "okay"), but most/all of his UK workforce will lose their job and the exchequer will lose his Corp tax etc. With the icing on the brexit s
t cake being if his new business in the EU does make it, it'll be them that receive the Corp tax money etc rather than the UK government. ked otherwise Mario149 said:
I've not dipped into this thread for quite a while but thought I'd add some real world experience I came across on Friday night. Our neighbours popped round for dinner, we're new to the area and it was the second time we'd all met. A few drinks in with tongues loosened we eventually got round to chatting about Brexit.
The husband comes from a local working class background, had a good idea and started what is now a manufacturing business 25+ years ago with his grandad's meagre life savings. Company now turns over £50m+ annually and contributes £1m+ in Corp tax to the exchequer. 50% of his business is selling in the UK and the rest is in europe. In a nutshell, anything other than an absolute declaration by the government that we'll be staying in the single market with no tarrifs, will kill it dead. He's already being squeezed by the increased cost of importing raw materials meaning his UK margins are minimal and eventually he'll be forced to raise prices. And the moment A50 is triggered where we don't know the outcome or even what the government is aiming for, he said his euro business is dead too as given the timescale of the work/product they deliver and the uncertainty over what tarriffs (or not) there may be on their main raw material, he can't quote a competitive or reliable price to customers so their business will go to companies based in Belgium/Italy etc.
He's frantically trying to see if he can set up a new company in a European country he has his eye on and move the vast majority of his business there. That's the best case scenario but he reckoned it was 50/50 as to whether he could do it. So he might be okay personally (if you can call losing a business you've invested your entire life in "okay"), but most/all of his UK workforce will lose their job and the exchequer will lose his Corp tax etc. With the icing on the brexit st cake being if his new business in the EU does make it, it'll be them that receive the Corp tax money etc rather than the UK government.
What does the business manufacture?The husband comes from a local working class background, had a good idea and started what is now a manufacturing business 25+ years ago with his grandad's meagre life savings. Company now turns over £50m+ annually and contributes £1m+ in Corp tax to the exchequer. 50% of his business is selling in the UK and the rest is in europe. In a nutshell, anything other than an absolute declaration by the government that we'll be staying in the single market with no tarrifs, will kill it dead. He's already being squeezed by the increased cost of importing raw materials meaning his UK margins are minimal and eventually he'll be forced to raise prices. And the moment A50 is triggered where we don't know the outcome or even what the government is aiming for, he said his euro business is dead too as given the timescale of the work/product they deliver and the uncertainty over what tarriffs (or not) there may be on their main raw material, he can't quote a competitive or reliable price to customers so their business will go to companies based in Belgium/Italy etc.
He's frantically trying to see if he can set up a new company in a European country he has his eye on and move the vast majority of his business there. That's the best case scenario but he reckoned it was 50/50 as to whether he could do it. So he might be okay personally (if you can call losing a business you've invested your entire life in "okay"), but most/all of his UK workforce will lose their job and the exchequer will lose his Corp tax etc. With the icing on the brexit s
t cake being if his new business in the EU does make it, it'll be them that receive the Corp tax money etc rather than the UK government. At the risk of sounding melodramatic, I'm not sure it's appropriate to go into any more detail than I have on a public forum. But suffice to say it's not an inelastically priced product consisting of cutting edge spacecraft widgets made of a rare form of Unobtanium. As best I understand, it's reasonably mundane (least to a layman like me), they can just do it a bit better and cheaper than the competition....at the moment.
As an addendum, when we discussed the whole "but it'll be better in 10 years" type argument, the chap just laughed. He said no-one can make plans that far in the future, people run businesses based on plans a few years long if you're lucky. It only takes a couple of years, if that, for a business to go under if conditions change. The only thing you know you'll get with any certainty is a recession every 10 years or so and you hope you can ride it out. All the Brexit vote did was guarantee economic difficulty.
Well, I paraphrase. I think his language was somewhat more colourful than that.
Well, I paraphrase. I think his language was somewhat more colourful than that.
don'tbesilly said:
Mario149 said:
I've not dipped into this thread for quite a while but thought I'd add some real world experience I came across on Friday night. Our neighbours popped round for dinner, we're new to the area and it was the second time we'd all met. A few drinks in with tongues loosened we eventually got round to chatting about Brexit.
The husband comes from a local working class background, had a good idea and started what is now a manufacturing business 25+ years ago with his grandad's meagre life savings. Company now turns over £50m+ annually and contributes £1m+ in Corp tax to the exchequer. 50% of his business is selling in the UK and the rest is in europe. In a nutshell, anything other than an absolute declaration by the government that we'll be staying in the single market with no tarrifs, will kill it dead. He's already being squeezed by the increased cost of importing raw materials meaning his UK margins are minimal and eventually he'll be forced to raise prices. And the moment A50 is triggered where we don't know the outcome or even what the government is aiming for, he said his euro business is dead too as given the timescale of the work/product they deliver and the uncertainty over what tarriffs (or not) there may be on their main raw material, he can't quote a competitive or reliable price to customers so their business will go to companies based in Belgium/Italy etc.
He's frantically trying to see if he can set up a new company in a European country he has his eye on and move the vast majority of his business there. That's the best case scenario but he reckoned it was 50/50 as to whether he could do it. So he might be okay personally (if you can call losing a business you've invested your entire life in "okay"), but most/all of his UK workforce will lose their job and the exchequer will lose his Corp tax etc. With the icing on the brexit st cake being if his new business in the EU does make it, it'll be them that receive the Corp tax money etc rather than the UK government.
What does the business manufacture?The husband comes from a local working class background, had a good idea and started what is now a manufacturing business 25+ years ago with his grandad's meagre life savings. Company now turns over £50m+ annually and contributes £1m+ in Corp tax to the exchequer. 50% of his business is selling in the UK and the rest is in europe. In a nutshell, anything other than an absolute declaration by the government that we'll be staying in the single market with no tarrifs, will kill it dead. He's already being squeezed by the increased cost of importing raw materials meaning his UK margins are minimal and eventually he'll be forced to raise prices. And the moment A50 is triggered where we don't know the outcome or even what the government is aiming for, he said his euro business is dead too as given the timescale of the work/product they deliver and the uncertainty over what tarriffs (or not) there may be on their main raw material, he can't quote a competitive or reliable price to customers so their business will go to companies based in Belgium/Italy etc.
He's frantically trying to see if he can set up a new company in a European country he has his eye on and move the vast majority of his business there. That's the best case scenario but he reckoned it was 50/50 as to whether he could do it. So he might be okay personally (if you can call losing a business you've invested your entire life in "okay"), but most/all of his UK workforce will lose their job and the exchequer will lose his Corp tax etc. With the icing on the brexit s
t cake being if his new business in the EU does make it, it'll be them that receive the Corp tax money etc rather than the UK government. Mario149 said:
At the risk of sounding melodramatic, I'm not sure it's appropriate to go into any more detail than I have on a public forum. But suffice to say it's not an inelastically priced product consisting of cutting edge spacecraft widgets made of a rare form of Unobtanium. As best I understand, it's reasonably mundane (least to a layman like me), they can just do it a bit better and cheaper than the competition....at the moment.
OK, so we'll just have to take what is nothing other than an emotive anecdote at face value then. I seem to recall you saying you were going to emigrate as a result of the vote to leave, what changed your mind?
powerstroke said:
Mario149 said:
I've not dipped into this thread for quite a while but thought I'd add some real world experience I came across on Friday night. Our neighbours popped round for dinner, we're new to the area and it was the second time we'd all met. A few drinks in with tongues loosened we eventually got round to chatting about Brexit.
The husband comes from a local working class background, had a good idea and started what is now a manufacturing business 25+ years ago with his grandad's meagre life savings. Company now turns over £50m+ annually and contributes £1m+ in Corp tax to the exchequer. 50% of his business is selling in the UK and the rest is in europe. In a nutshell, anything other than an absolute declaration by the government that we'll be staying in the single market with no tarrifs, will kill it dead. He's already being squeezed by the increased cost of importing raw materials meaning his UK margins are minimal and eventually he'll be forced to raise prices. And the moment A50 is triggered where we don't know the outcome or even what the government is aiming for, he said his euro business is dead too as given the timescale of the work/product they deliver and the uncertainty over what tarriffs (or not) there may be on their main raw material, he can't quote a competitive or reliable price to customers so their business will go to companies based in Belgium/Italy etc.
He's frantically trying to see if he can set up a new company in a European country he has his eye on and move the vast majority of his business there. That's the best case scenario but he reckoned it was 50/50 as to whether he could do it. So he might be okay personally (if you can call losing a business you've invested your entire life in "okay"), but most/all of his UK workforce will lose their job and the exchequer will lose his Corp tax etc. With the icing on the brexit st cake being if his new business in the EU does make it, it'll be them that receive the Corp tax money etc rather than the UK government.
Yes best if he moves the business obviously going to be fThe husband comes from a local working class background, had a good idea and started what is now a manufacturing business 25+ years ago with his grandad's meagre life savings. Company now turns over £50m+ annually and contributes £1m+ in Corp tax to the exchequer. 50% of his business is selling in the UK and the rest is in europe. In a nutshell, anything other than an absolute declaration by the government that we'll be staying in the single market with no tarrifs, will kill it dead. He's already being squeezed by the increased cost of importing raw materials meaning his UK margins are minimal and eventually he'll be forced to raise prices. And the moment A50 is triggered where we don't know the outcome or even what the government is aiming for, he said his euro business is dead too as given the timescale of the work/product they deliver and the uncertainty over what tarriffs (or not) there may be on their main raw material, he can't quote a competitive or reliable price to customers so their business will go to companies based in Belgium/Italy etc.
He's frantically trying to see if he can set up a new company in a European country he has his eye on and move the vast majority of his business there. That's the best case scenario but he reckoned it was 50/50 as to whether he could do it. So he might be okay personally (if you can call losing a business you've invested your entire life in "okay"), but most/all of his UK workforce will lose their job and the exchequer will lose his Corp tax etc. With the icing on the brexit s
t cake being if his new business in the EU does make it, it'll be them that receive the Corp tax money etc rather than the UK government. ked otherwise - an example of why the Single Market is so important - notably for narrow margin manufacturing both for jobs and GDP/tax income.
- a perfect example of how an entirely valid scenario is just dismissed by a leave voter (and I'm guessing a lot are like powerstroke with his "banker to fisherman" ideas)
It is clearly no good insulting each other or mocking opinions.
I would only ask powerstroke this - if for a moment you imagine the anecdote is true, can you see how bad this would be for the UK economy, for jobs? This are not just high paid jobs, it will be a mix, in a community. Does this not suggest the SM is rather important to us?
Edited by ///ajd on Sunday 4th December 09:40
don'tbesilly said:
don'tbesilly said:
Mario149 said:
I've not dipped into this thread for quite a while but thought I'd add some real world experience I came across on Friday night. Our neighbours popped round for dinner, we're new to the area and it was the second time we'd all met. A few drinks in with tongues loosened we eventually got round to chatting about Brexit.
The husband comes from a local working class background, had a good idea and started what is now a manufacturing business 25+ years ago with his grandad's meagre life savings. Company now turns over £50m+ annually and contributes £1m+ in Corp tax to the exchequer. 50% of his business is selling in the UK and the rest is in europe. In a nutshell, anything other than an absolute declaration by the government that we'll be staying in the single market with no tarrifs, will kill it dead. He's already being squeezed by the increased cost of importing raw materials meaning his UK margins are minimal and eventually he'll be forced to raise prices. And the moment A50 is triggered where we don't know the outcome or even what the government is aiming for, he said his euro business is dead too as given the timescale of the work/product they deliver and the uncertainty over what tarriffs (or not) there may be on their main raw material, he can't quote a competitive or reliable price to customers so their business will go to companies based in Belgium/Italy etc.
He's frantically trying to see if he can set up a new company in a European country he has his eye on and move the vast majority of his business there. That's the best case scenario but he reckoned it was 50/50 as to whether he could do it. So he might be okay personally (if you can call losing a business you've invested your entire life in "okay"), but most/all of his UK workforce will lose their job and the exchequer will lose his Corp tax etc. With the icing on the brexit st cake being if his new business in the EU does make it, it'll be them that receive the Corp tax money etc rather than the UK government.
What does the business manufacture?The husband comes from a local working class background, had a good idea and started what is now a manufacturing business 25+ years ago with his grandad's meagre life savings. Company now turns over £50m+ annually and contributes £1m+ in Corp tax to the exchequer. 50% of his business is selling in the UK and the rest is in europe. In a nutshell, anything other than an absolute declaration by the government that we'll be staying in the single market with no tarrifs, will kill it dead. He's already being squeezed by the increased cost of importing raw materials meaning his UK margins are minimal and eventually he'll be forced to raise prices. And the moment A50 is triggered where we don't know the outcome or even what the government is aiming for, he said his euro business is dead too as given the timescale of the work/product they deliver and the uncertainty over what tarriffs (or not) there may be on their main raw material, he can't quote a competitive or reliable price to customers so their business will go to companies based in Belgium/Italy etc.
He's frantically trying to see if he can set up a new company in a European country he has his eye on and move the vast majority of his business there. That's the best case scenario but he reckoned it was 50/50 as to whether he could do it. So he might be okay personally (if you can call losing a business you've invested your entire life in "okay"), but most/all of his UK workforce will lose their job and the exchequer will lose his Corp tax etc. With the icing on the brexit s
t cake being if his new business in the EU does make it, it'll be them that receive the Corp tax money etc rather than the UK government. Mario149 said:
At the risk of sounding melodramatic, I'm not sure it's appropriate to go into any more detail than I have on a public forum. But suffice to say it's not an inelastically priced product consisting of cutting edge spacecraft widgets made of a rare form of Unobtanium. As best I understand, it's reasonably mundane (least to a layman like me), they can just do it a bit better and cheaper than the competition....at the moment.
OK, so we'll just have to take what is nothing other than an emotive anecdote at face value then. I seem to recall you saying you were going to emigrate as a result of the vote to leave, what changed your mind?
If you don't believe me that's fine. Keep the blinkers on and plough on. But I'd like to think that 7.5 years and the thick end of 7k posts on this forum (the majority of which are not on NP&E) buys me at least some credibility. I've got better things to do on a Sunday morning than embellish/make stuff up and post it on a forum. I thought this might be useful as it shows a counter point to the fact that some people claim our weak currency is a good thing and hard Brexit is the best way forward, whereas weak currency and the possibility of a hard Brexit will put successful businesses under, or make them move.
As for emigrating, I'd be interested as to exactly which posts I made make you think that we'd definitely emigrate? I think you'll probably find it was termed that given my background we'd have no problem moving abroad if Britain became a place we didn't feel matched our values. Either that, or you've confused me saying that we were investigating going and living in Spain for 6 months for a bit of fun as it's warmer/cheaper and our current jobs mean we could do it as an extended holiday.
don'tbesilly said:
OK, so we'll just have to take what is nothing other than an emotive anecdote at face value then.
Also anecdotally, most of the small business owners I know are feeling pretty beat up at the moment. There are some very substantial increases in minimum wage coming through, workplace pensions are another expensive burden, business rates are a joke, exchange rates are killing margins as the cost of imported raw materials and finished goods soar, and Brexit is another level of uncertainty that we just don't need. It's hard enough running a small business without this. 
///ajd said:
Two important messages here:
- an example of why the Single Market is so important - notably for narrow margin manufacturing both for jobs and GDP/tax income.
Based on what we know the manufacturer is selling bits of spaceships. If he's not selling to the USA he has in effect two customers - Airbus and Thales. I don't run a business but basing a £50m turnover company around two customers, and especially where it sounds like the customer has the whip hand (he can't increase his prices) doesn't sound like a sensible idea to me. I'd be looking to diversify that business to make sure that the loss of a customer didn't result in the business failing. - an example of why the Single Market is so important - notably for narrow margin manufacturing both for jobs and GDP/tax income.
///ajd said:
- a perfect example of how an entirely valid scenario is just dismissed by a leave voter (and I'm guessing a lot are like powerstroke with his "banker to fisherman" ideas)
It's a perfect example of someone deciding that Brexit will be negative before Brexit.///ajd said:
I would only ask powerstroke this - if for a moment you imagine the anecdote is true, can you see how bad this would be for the UK economy, for jobs? This are not just high paid jobs, it will be a mix, in a community. Does this not suggest the SM is rather important to us?
If the anecdote is true then I'm worried that the business owner is only seeing the risks. he should be looking at the opportunities with nations further afield will bring - especially with the USA given his business - and lobbying government in a positive fashion for free trade deals with nations where he could make a lot more profit. davepoth said:
///ajd said:
Two important messages here:
- an example of why the Single Market is so important - notably for narrow margin manufacturing both for jobs and GDP/tax income.
Based on what we know the manufacturer is selling bits of spaceships. If he's not selling to the USA he has in effect two customers - Airbus and Thales. I don't run a business but basing a £50m turnover company around two customers, and especially where it sounds like the customer has the whip hand (he can't increase his prices) doesn't sound like a sensible idea to me. I'd be looking to diversify that business to make sure that the loss of a customer didn't result in the business failing. - an example of why the Single Market is so important - notably for narrow margin manufacturing both for jobs and GDP/tax income.
///ajd said:
- a perfect example of how an entirely valid scenario is just dismissed by a leave voter (and I'm guessing a lot are like powerstroke with his "banker to fisherman" ideas)
It's a perfect example of someone deciding that Brexit will be negative before Brexit.///ajd said:
I would only ask powerstroke this - if for a moment you imagine the anecdote is true, can you see how bad this would be for the UK economy, for jobs? This are not just high paid jobs, it will be a mix, in a community. Does this not suggest the SM is rather important to us?
If the anecdote is true then I'm worried that the business owner is only seeing the risks. he should be looking at the opportunities with nations further afield will bring - especially with the USA given his business - and lobbying government in a positive fashion for free trade deals with nations where he could make a lot more profit. The discussion included his analysis of the risks going forward - and the solution from his point of view is to relocate to the EU to keep the business going. He is exactly looking at the opportunities and changing business environment and concluding the UK is getting less competitive.
This is quite logical and likely to be the best option for the business (but not for the UK).
Why do you think he would keep the business in the UK if it more profitable/sustainable to move the EU?
Does that make him a traitor or actually a good businessman for correctly assessing the risks? It is incredibly patronising to assume you know better and coudl make a success of his business in the UK - I'm sure he's looked at all those options first as they are least painful, and moving to the EU is still coming out as the best business case option.
Ironic to hear about brexiteers complain about e.g. Ford moving transit to Turkey for similar reasons, failing to realise that brexit makes the loss of further manufacturing from the UK more likely.
confused_buyer said:
The Middle East can be a pain. Vivid memories of pleading with Chambers of Commerce to Certify a CoO and Bill of Lading (in English & Arabic) at 4.50pm on a Friday in order to have it ready for presentation for a LC on Monday morning still brings a twitch to the eye.
I don't know if it still the case but some countries you had to get the Embassy to Certify as well after the CoC.
Yes, that's very much still the case. Some of the embassies have a two week turnaround!I don't know if it still the case but some countries you had to get the Embassy to Certify as well after the CoC.
///ajd said:
You may have misread - he said it is not a niche space craft type product - its mundane.
I did indeed. In that case the business owner's standpoint is even more strange - he has a wide market for his products and a lot of people he can sell to both inside and outside of the EU.///ajd said:
The discussion included his analysis of the risks going forward - and the solution from his point of view is to relocate to the EU to keep the business going. He is exactly looking at the opportunities and changing business environment and concluding the UK is getting less competitive.
This is quite logical and likely to be the best option for the business (but not for the UK).
Why do you think he would keep the business in the UK if it more profitable/sustainable to move the EU?
I'm not saying that. What I'm saying is that he hasn't analysed the situation properly - how can he when we have no idea what the trading situation will be?This is quite logical and likely to be the best option for the business (but not for the UK).
Why do you think he would keep the business in the UK if it more profitable/sustainable to move the EU?
///ajd said:
Does that make him a traitor or actually a good businessman for correctly assessing the risks? It is incredibly patronising to assume you know better and coudl make a success of his business in the UK - I'm sure he's looked at all those options first as they are least painful, and moving to the EU is still coming out as the best business case option.
My emphasis. You're at it too!///ajd said:
Ironic to hear about brexiteers complain about e.g. Ford moving transit to Turkey for similar reasons, failing to realise that brexit makes the loss of further manufacturing from the UK more likely.
Right now, the only thing that makes the loss of further manufacturing more likely is people saying the loss of further manufacturing is more likely. Sentiment is incredibly important to the financial markets, and that filters down to SMEs like the one we're talking about. If everybody could believe in the UK a little bit more it would make a big difference to the result of Brexit. davepoth said:
///ajd said:
You may have misread - he said it is not a niche space craft type product - its mundane.
I did indeed. In that case the business owner's standpoint is even more strange - he has a wide market for his products and a lot of people he can sell to both inside and outside of the EU.///ajd said:
The discussion included his analysis of the risks going forward - and the solution from his point of view is to relocate to the EU to keep the business going. He is exactly looking at the opportunities and changing business environment and concluding the UK is getting less competitive.
This is quite logical and likely to be the best option for the business (but not for the UK).
Why do you think he would keep the business in the UK if it more profitable/sustainable to move the EU?
I'm not saying that. What I'm saying is that he hasn't analysed the situation properly - how can he when we have no idea what the trading situation will be?This is quite logical and likely to be the best option for the business (but not for the UK).
Why do you think he would keep the business in the UK if it more profitable/sustainable to move the EU?
Mario149 said:
That's half of the entire point. By the UK buying the Brexit house before seeing it, he has no idea what tariffs etc will be if we leave. He can't quote, at least not sensibly, until there is an answer (i.e. an agreement on the SM/tariffs etc has been made). By the time he does know, the business won't be viable, and even if it did survive that long, any significant tariff on his primary raw material would kill it. The example he used was that in the near future he won't be able to tell his potential EU customer whether their order would cost £2m or £3m, whereas his competitors in the EU can.
One business tool (there are others) is the SWOT analysis. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. It sounds like he has done the W and the T very thoroughly, but hasn't looked at the S or the O. Any business that says "we'll just stick with what we have" will die eventually, the only question is how long it will take. Instead of worrying about how to keep what he has now the standard business response to this sort of risk would be to look to diversify into new markets and new products to cushion any potential blow.
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