The economic consequences of Brexit

The economic consequences of Brexit

Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit

Total Members Polled: 732

Far worse off than EU countries.: 15%
A bit worse off than if we'd stayed in.: 35%
A bit better off than if we'd stayed in.: 41%
Roughly as rich as the Swiss.: 10%
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Author
Discussion

andymadmak

14,597 posts

271 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
Tony427 said:
The EU is in a far weaker negotiating position both economically and politically then they think.

They may well find that their whole business structure will not be keeping with the political programme.
You're brave. Expect the usual suspects to pile in on you and tell you that (despite your obvious and relevant experience to the contrary) you don't know what you are talking about. The standard position of the ardent Remainer is that the UK has precious little by way of negotiating power and that the EU will be able to loftily wash their hands of us without having to worry or concern themselves about domestic repercussions in Italy, France, Germany etc etc.

I have said all along that I think (hope) that pragmatism will win out - albeit with some face saving window dressing on both sides. UK will exit EU but will retain some sort of access to the SM. No FMOP per se, but something workable based around "Free Movement Of People who have a job already lined up or who have a desired skill" and can prove it by way of some sort of simple qualification program. It's likely that UK will also pay an amount for the right to access the SM. The Gauleiters in Brussels will be able to pretend that they won, and the UK can at last be free of the whole socialist experiment that is the EU before it either reforms back to a trading zone (which we might wish to join again) or collapses into a festering pile.

anonymous-user

55 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
I think the stumbling block is that the EU will be saying free movement and single market access go together, the UK want single market without free movement.
Canada does not now have free movement of people with the EU post CETA.
Canada now has a free trade agreement with the EU.
Canada's trade with the EU is not as important to the EU as the UK's trade.
The EU are in serious trouble if they cut off UK sourced financing.


don'tbesilly

13,938 posts

164 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Digga said:
There are two sides to any negotiation and it behoves both sides to take a fairly resolute approach, pre-negotiation, in order to protect their own interests. I'm not sure why people struggle with this.
This isn't a second hand car deal, or the terms of a few trains, it involves the lives of millions of people. Personally, I think full, frank, and above all open discussions should be undertaken. I get the distinct feeling the EU is more willing to do that than the UK at the moment.
That's a very strong opinion from someone who doesn't care either way and DIDN'T vote.

You're right it wasn't a second hand car deal, or the terms of a few trains, it involves the lives of millions of people, but NOT you apparently.

Why didn't you vote for something you are now demanding?
If you had bothered to make a conviction either way you might have a valid point.
What right do you now have for demanding anything?
You don't care either way and said so on the 23rd September.

By the way, you'll see it as an insult, does the truth always insult you?



Pan Pan Pan

9,932 posts

112 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
One of the statements made during the referendum, was that the EU was a trading bloc of 5 million people, but in real life how true was that?
Genuine question, because I cannot see that someone in an EU country, would cross 27 other EU countries to buy a toaster from another member state, when the country next door makes perfectly good toasters, at a better price, because of reduced transport costs if nothing else, and they can get it repaired more easily if it goes wrong.
The problem for the UK is that it has most of the other EU countries between it, and the one it wants to sell into, all of whom are making similar goods to the same EU standards. What advantage is there for them to buy UK manufactured products, rather than those made far nearer? again a genuine question.
Could this be why the UK has always had a multi billion pound trade deficit in the 40 years since it joined the EEC?

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

158 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
andymadmak said:
You are almost certainly correct, however my question to PM was why he felt that the EU was up for an open discussion when the UK was not (in his opinion)
Either he has a genuine reason for believing this, or it's just another lazy way of bashing HMG
Just the impression I get.

They have stated the timescale they feel they need to get it sorted within two years.

They have repeatedly stated no SM without freedoms.

They have repeatedly stated don't expect a better deal with the EU from outside than we have inside.

In the meantime the UK is still faffing about trying to decide who actually has the power to fire the starting pistol and coming up with meaningless sound bites like 'brexit is brexit' and the latest 'red white and blue deal'.

sidicks

25,218 posts

222 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
Pan Pan Pan said:
One of the statements made during the referendum, was that the EU was a trading bloc of 5 million people, but in real life how true was that?
Genuine question, because I cannot see that someone in an EU country, would cross 27 other EU countries to buy a toaster from another member state, when the country next door makes perfectly good toasters, at a better price, because of reduced transport costs if nothing else, and they can get it repaired more easily if it goes wrong.
The problem for the UK is that it has most of the other EU countries between it, and the one it wants to sell into, all of whom are making similar goods to the same EU standards. What advantage is there for them to buy UK manufactured products, rather than those made far nearer? again a genuine question.
Could this be why the UK has always had a multi billion pound trade deficit in the 40 years since it joined the EEC?
This applies to some goods but not to others.

Maybe a UK toaster is basically the same as a French toaster or Dutch toaster or German toaster.

However, a UK car is not really a substitute for a French car or a German car etc etc

RYH64E

7,960 posts

245 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
jsf said:
RYH64E said:
I think the stumbling block is that the EU will be saying free movement and single market access go together, the UK want single market without free movement.
Canada does not now have free movement of people with the EU post CETA.
Canada now has a free trade agreement with the EU.
Canada's trade with the EU is not as important to the EU as the UK's trade.
The EU are in serious trouble if they cut off UK sourced financing.
So you're expecting negotiations to go well then? The EU will realise that they need us more than we need them and give us what we want?

sidicks

25,218 posts

222 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
So you're expecting negotiations to go well then? The EU will realise that they need us more than we need them and give us what we want?
I think he's saying there will be a compromise by both parties. Which seems entirely reasonable.

You seem to be suggesting the opposite...

don'tbesilly

13,938 posts

164 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
andymadmak said:
You are almost certainly correct, however my question to PM was why he felt that the EU was up for an open discussion when the UK was not (in his opinion)
Either he has a genuine reason for believing this, or it's just another lazy way of bashing HMG
Just the impression I get.

They have stated the timescale they feel they need to get it sorted within two years.

They have repeatedly stated no SM without freedoms.

They have repeatedly stated don't expect a better deal with the EU from outside than we have inside.

In the meantime the UK is still faffing about trying to decide who actually has the power to fire the starting pistol and coming up with meaningless sound bites like 'brexit is brexit' and the latest 'red white and blue deal'.
You didn't care either way on the 23rd June whether we were a member of the EU, why do you care now?
If you care so much now, why not on the 23rd June?

You can carry on ignoring the questions, I'll carry on questioning why you care.


RYH64E

7,960 posts

245 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
sidicks said:
RYH64E said:
So you're expecting negotiations to go well then? The EU will realise that they need us more than we need them and give us what we want?
I think he's saying there will be a compromise by both parties. Which seems entirely reasonable.

You seem to be suggesting the opposite...
I suspect both sides will be prepared to compromise on the little things, but I'm not sure if there's any compromise possible by either side over freedom of movement/single market.

Mrr T

12,256 posts

266 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
sidicks said:
This applies to some goods but not to others.

Maybe a UK toaster is basically the same as a French toaster or Dutch toaster or German toaster.

However, a UK car is not really a substitute for a French car or a German car etc etc
I think you will find little difference between most products sold in the UK and those in the rest of the EU. The only obvious difference is plugs on electrical goods but most of these now are just adapters.

Even UK cars are most likely 95% similar to the same car sold in the rEU.


Digga

40,352 posts

284 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Digga said:
There are two sides to any negotiation and it behoves both sides to take a fairly resolute approach, pre-negotiation, in order to protect their own interests. I'm not sure why people struggle with this.
This isn't a second hand car deal, or the terms of a few trains, it involves the lives of millions of people. Personally, I think full, frank, and above all open discussions should be undertaken. I get the distinct feeling the EU is more willing to do that than the UK at the moment.
Listen son, I know more about down-to-the-wire negotiations than you know about Balamory. I was sitting in meetings with barristers on both sides, while you were still trying to colour between the lines. Wind your pencil-neck in.

London424

12,829 posts

176 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
Finally someone raised the question at PMQ's about there has been a lot of talk about how much we might have to pay to access the EU...but not a lot on how much they would have to pay to access the UK.


Cobnapint

8,635 posts

152 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
jsf said:
RYH64E said:
I think the stumbling block is that the EU will be saying free movement and single market access go together, the UK want single market without free movement.
Canada does not now have free movement of people with the EU post CETA.
Canada now has a free trade agreement with the EU.
Canada's trade with the EU is not as important to the EU as the UK's trade.
The EU are in serious trouble if they cut off UK sourced financing.
Fair enough - but, Canada isn't a departing a member of the EU that needs making an example of.

We are.

sidicks

25,218 posts

222 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
Mrr T said:
I think you will find little difference between most products sold in the UK and those in the rest of the EU. The only obvious difference is plugs on electrical goods but most of these now are just adapters.

Even UK cars are most likely 95% similar to the same car sold in the rEU.
I think you miss the point regarding cars!

Digga

40,352 posts

284 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
sidicks said:
Mrr T said:
I think you will find little difference between most products sold in the UK and those in the rest of the EU. The only obvious difference is plugs on electrical goods but most of these now are just adapters.

Even UK cars are most likely 95% similar to the same car sold in the rEU.
I think you miss the point regarding cars!
This is a motoring forum, you can't expect people to understand simple things about cars. hehe

(I knew what you meant, I don't think it was the least big ambiguous, but clearly I'm wrong.)

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

158 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
Digga said:
Listen son, I know more about down-to-the-wire negotiations than you know about Balamory. I was sitting in meetings with barristers on both sides, while you were still trying to colour between the lines. Wind your pencil-neck in.
Why the aggression?

Digga

40,352 posts

284 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Digga said:
Listen son, I know more about down-to-the-wire negotiations than you know about Balamory. I was sitting in meetings with barristers on both sides, while you were still trying to colour between the lines. Wind your pencil-neck in.
Why the aggression?
Why the insolence?

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

158 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
Digga said:
Why the insolence?
Where have I been insolent?

Digga

40,352 posts

284 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Digga said:
Why the insolence?
Where have I been insolent?
Re-read your dismissal, out of hand, of a comment made on this thread. You seem to think it's okay to arrive on this forum with half-resolved opinions, despite having no actual skin in the game WRT to this topic, and tell people how it is, without any thought for a.) who you're engaging with and b.) how you're tangents disrupt the thread. Give it a break.
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