The economic consequences of Brexit

[s2art]

confused_buyer said:

That is dependent on whether we leave the Customs Union or not. Leaving the EU but not the Customs Union would prevent us from doing that.

Therefore......

[don'tbesilly]

confused_buyer said:

andymadmak said:

Not quite. But of course what we CAN do once we leave the EU is to strike trade deals with other countries - deals that would be mutually beneficial to us.

That is dependent on whether we leave the Customs Union or not. Leaving the EU but not the Customs Union would prevent us from doing that.

Point well made.

To leave the EU and stay within the Custom Union (as it currently exists) would be a nonsense.

[EarlOfHazard]

When at an airport, buying duty free, it's cheaper to purchase items if flying out of the EU. Quite a small aspect of the bigger picture of course; but does this mean that we'll pay less when buying duty free items?

[PRTVR]

EarlOfHazard said:

When at an airport, buying duty free, it's cheaper to purchase items if flying out of the EU. Quite a small aspect of the bigger picture of course; but does this mean that we'll pay less when buying duty free items?

Actually it is not cheaper if flying outside the EU, the airport's argue that they sell things cheaper for everybody, but it is a con, the price should reflect the tax payable by the individual passenger, when we leave it should be cheaper for all.

[walm]

PRTVR said:

EarlOfHazard said:

When at an airport, buying duty free, it's cheaper to purchase items if flying out of the EU. Quite a small aspect of the bigger picture of course; but does this mean that we'll pay less when buying duty free items?

Actually it is not cheaper if flying outside the EU, the airport's argue that they sell things cheaper for everybody, but it is a con, the price should reflect the tax payable by the individual passenger, when we leave it should be cheaper for all.

Generally the retailer notes that you are flying outside the EU, charges you the same price (which it charges everyone) and then pockets the difference.
Because the retailer is the one who pays the VAT in the end.

So everyone pays £12 for that "I heart London" T-shirt and if you are travelling to the EU, the retailer pays HMRC £2 and if outside it pays nothing but makes a tasty extra £2 on the deal.

[johnxjsc1985]

don4l said:

Utter, utter baloney!

we have a significant trade deficit with the EU maybe not with individual Countries but significant enough for the EU not to fk us about too much. If we end up with no trade deal the EU would have a lot to answer for and it would definitely be a case of sacrificing jobs for the sake of their principals. I am confident that in the end common sense will prevail but then we are talking about Politicians.

[Mrr T]

johnxjsc1985 said:

we have a significant trade deficit with the EU maybe not with individual Countries but significant enough for the EU not to fk us about too much. If we end up with no trade deal the EU would have a lot to answer for and it would definitely be a case of sacrificing jobs for the sake of their principals. I am confident that in the end common sense will prevail but then we are talking about Politicians.

So who’s job are you going to sacrifice?

[s2art]

Mrr T said:

johnxjsc1985 said:

we have a significant trade deficit with the EU maybe not with individual Countries but significant enough for the EU not to fk us about too much. If we end up with no trade deal the EU would have a lot to answer for and it would definitely be a case of sacrificing jobs for the sake of their principals. I am confident that in the end common sense will prevail but then we are talking about Politicians.

So who’s job are you going to sacrifice?

The question is who's job is the EU going to sacrifice? We just want free trade.

[anonymous-user]

Mrr T said:

johnxjsc1985 said:

we have a significant trade deficit with the EU maybe not with individual Countries but significant enough for the EU not to fk us about too much. If we end up with no trade deal the EU would have a lot to answer for and it would definitely be a case of sacrificing jobs for the sake of their principals. I am confident that in the end common sense will prevail but then we are talking about Politicians.

So who’s job are you going to sacrifice?

Are you suggesting that Johnxjsc is one of the EU negotiating team, or did you just not read what he said?

[Dindoit]

Industrial output suffers biggest fall in four years - ONS

But don4l's anecdotal evidence shows completely the opposite. I just don't know who to trust any more.

[don'tbesilly]

Dindoit said:

Industrial output suffers biggest fall in four years - ONS

But don4l's anecdotal evidence shows completely the opposite. I just don't know who to trust any more.

I guess it's the headlines that need further examination, and to read what could be construed as a result of Brexit and what shouldn't.

Then if you read the whole article, the doom and gloom gets you to this:

However Lee Hopley, chief economist at manufacturing organisation EEF, said she was expecting a comeback.

"While this is a disappointing set of figures, more upbeat commentary coming from across the sector - driven by resilience in the domestic market and a brightening outlook overseas - points to this trend reversing in the final months of the year."

Who to trust is indeed a question that needs to be asked.

[don4l]

Mrr T said:

johnxjsc1985 said:

we have a significant trade deficit with the EU maybe not with individual Countries but significant enough for the EU not to fk us about too much. If we end up with no trade deal the EU would have a lot to answer for and it would definitely be a case of sacrificing jobs for the sake of their principals. I am confident that in the end common sense will prevail but then we are talking about Politicians.

So who’s job are you going to sacrifice?

That's easy.

David Davis.

[anonymous-user]

don'tbesilly said:

Dindoit said:

Industrial output suffers biggest fall in four years - ONS

But don4l's anecdotal evidence shows completely the opposite. I just don't know who to trust any more.

I guess it's the headlines that need further examination, and to read what could be construed as a result of Brexit and what shouldn't.

Then if you read the whole article, the doom and gloom gets you to this:

However Lee Hopley, chief economist at manufacturing organisation EEF, said she was expecting a comeback.

"While this is a disappointing set of figures, more upbeat commentary coming from across the sector - driven by resilience in the domestic market and a brightening outlook overseas - points to this trend reversing in the final months of the year."

Who to trust is indeed a question that needs to be asked.

Sounds like selection bias on your behalf not the other poster?

He commented that something bad has definately happened.

You're focusing on the possibilty that something good might happen in the future. Surely the important bit is the facts of what has actually happened.

[don4l]

Dindoit said:

Industrial output suffers biggest fall in four years - ONS

But don4l's anecdotal evidence shows completely the opposite. I just don't know who to trust any more.

My "anecdotal" evidence comes straight from the horse's mouth.

I prefer to get my ONS data from the ONS website rather than Sky News.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandpr...


Didn't you think that it might be worth checking before posting your gloom and doom?

3rd quarter GDP rose by 0.5%.

The economy is in great shape "despite Brexit".

You can explore the website and look at consumer spending and the unemployment.

Sadly, it is all good news.

Even worse, Tata have announced that the Port Talbot steel plant is not going to close after all. In fact, they have committed £1Bn investment over the next 10 years. Thousands of jobs have been saved.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-38224787

[don'tbesilly]

El stovey said:

don'tbesilly said:

Dindoit said:

Industrial output suffers biggest fall in four years - ONS

But don4l's anecdotal evidence shows completely the opposite. I just don't know who to trust any more.

I guess it's the headlines that need further examination, and to read what could be construed as a result of Brexit and what shouldn't.

Then if you read the whole article, the doom and gloom gets you to this:

However Lee Hopley, chief economist at manufacturing organisation EEF, said she was expecting a comeback.

"While this is a disappointing set of figures, more upbeat commentary coming from across the sector - driven by resilience in the domestic market and a brightening outlook overseas - points to this trend reversing in the final months of the year."

Who to trust is indeed a question that needs to be asked.

Sounds like selection bias on your behalf not the other poster?

He commented that something bad has definately happened.

You're focusing on the possibilty that something good might happen in the future. Surely the important bit is the facts of what has actually happened.

I also said that it's worth examining what could be construed as a consequence of Brexit, and that which was not.

"The Office for National Statistics (ONS) measured a 1.3% decline month-on-month, citing the temporary closure of the major Buzzard oilfield in the North Sea and lower factory output, particularly among pharmaceutical firms".

Was the temporary closure of Buzzard for maintenance as a result of the vote to leave the European Union?

If it was, could you explain why?
Or provide a link explaining why?

[Dindoit]

don4l said:

My "anecdotal" evidence comes straight from the horse's mouth.

I prefer to get my ONS data from the ONS website rather than Sky News.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandpr...

Didn't you think that it might be worth checking before posting your gloom and doom?

Sky's oranges are until the end of October whereas you're quoting apples from September.

Manufacturing is down.

[don4l]

Dindoit said:

don4l said:

My "anecdotal" evidence comes straight from the horse's mouth.

I prefer to get my ONS data from the ONS website rather than Sky News.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandpr...

Didn't you think that it might be worth checking before posting your gloom and doom?

Sky's oranges are until the end of October whereas you're quoting apples from September.

Manufacturing is down.

Please provide a link to the ONS website.

[don'tbesilly]

Dindoit said:

don4l said:

My "anecdotal" evidence comes straight from the horse's mouth.

I prefer to get my ONS data from the ONS website rather than Sky News.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandpr...

Didn't you think that it might be worth checking before posting your gloom and doom?

Sky's oranges are until the end of October whereas you're quoting apples from September.

Manufacturing is down.

As it was you that provided the original link to the article, perhaps you can answer the question/s:

"The Office for National Statistics (ONS) measured a 1.3% decline month-on-month, citing the temporary closure of the major Buzzard oilfield in the North Sea and lower factory output, particularly among pharmaceutical firms".

Was the temporary closure of Buzzard for maintenance as a result of the vote to leave the European Union?

If it was, could you explain why?
Or provide a link explaining why?

[Dindoit]

Why are you both asking inane questions? If you have a problem with the data take it up with Sky News. All I did was link to the story which shows manufacturing output is down.

[///ajd]

Dindoit said:

Why are you both asking inane questions? If you have a problem with the data take it up with Sky News. All I did was link to the story which shows manufacturing output is down.

Because they are terrified of any bad news that maybe related to Brexit.