The economic consequences of Brexit

[Digga]

Sticking with figures. Construction was declining before June in any case: http://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/fa...

It is still a long way from a healthy recovery.

[Digga]

NickGibbs said:

Also, to pick up the 'stalked' slur, it was you Digga who looked into my profile to make your point! I'm a motoring journalist, if that helps

That was after the fact. None taken. Have a good weekend.

[jjlynn27]

Digga said:

quote from another referring the BBC, hence the comment, nothing at all to do with this thread. Okay?

Absolutely no idea what you are on about. But Okay.

[ATG]

Digga said:

FWIW I've never rated any of these organisations particularly highly. I think - as do others here - that the weighting effect of 'Project Fear' is significant.

Oh, come on.

[Blue62]

I don't honestly see where the argument is in all of this, a decline was inevitable if we voted to leave, even dear old Nigel admitted as much before adding that regardless of the economy we would all be 'happier', presumably because we would all have our country back and be focussing on making Britain great again.

The serious issue is the rate, depth and impact of a decline and until the terms of severance are agreed and our economic strategy becomes clear, we are in for a period of uncertainty. It's ridiculous to argue that this has anything at all to do with project fear, or people talking themselves into it, it was always on the cards.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Blue62 said:

The serious issue is the rate, depth and impact of a decline and until the terms of severance are agreed and our economic strategy becomes clear, we are in for a period of uncertainty.

And not forgetting how long it takes, anything from 2 - 10 years depending on who you chose to believe.

[fido]

Blue62 said:

It's ridiculous to argue that this has anything at all to do with project fear, or people talking themselves into it, it was always on the cards.

Agree with the general sentiments - but Project Fear-Mongers jumping on headlines using words like 'dramatic deterioration’ is sort of the same thing! If this short-term downturn is expected as you say - then the headlines would reflect such an expectation - and not make the Remainers wet their pants with excitement because they want to hump the EU and demand a second referendum.

[anonymous-user]

PMI's are important. These numbers are not good, but neither are they at all surprising given the timing. It's funny to see the joy bad news brings to some remainers, like winning on the internet is some sad consolation prize for losing the referendum.

[JawKnee]

Digga said:

JawKnee said:

Digga said:

That's a very cynical and pragmatic assessment.

I like it.

My concern is that, whatever the outcome, project fear will prevent people from making the best of any situation. The attitude of defeat could overwhelm any fighting spirit.

Reality sucks doesn't it? Is every piece of bad news going to be labelled "Project Fear"? Eventually it will have to become project fact and many people will need to take responsibility for their foolishness.

That's one attitude to have. Throw a strop because you don't like the outcome and decide to do your best to derail it to a point. In the real world, probably even dafter than cutting your own nose off to spite your face, but it seems popular, nonetheless. Lemmings.

PMI is an index of purchasing managers intentions at over 1800 british businesses. It predicted the 2008 crash and the 2012 slowdown well in advance.

If you have a problem with their opinions, talk to these purchasing managers. This isn't some sort of conspiracy. Nobody is throwing a strop but many are finding excuses to divert the blame from themselves...

[Derek Smith]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Blue62 said:

The serious issue is the rate, depth and impact of a decline and until the terms of severance are agreed and our economic strategy becomes clear, we are in for a period of uncertainty.

And not forgetting how long it takes, anything from 2 - 10 years depending on who you chose to believe.

There is another significant factor, I think. We have a general election coming up at a time which will not be chosen by the government. If there is a significant - it does not have to be substantial - decline in the economy then there might be a price to pay. Further, there will be an agreement in the year or so before the election and if it is not what certain people expected/wanted then there could be a reaction.

At that time it will be a blame-apportioning exercise. Who gets hit by it is unknown of course.

By the time of the following election, some nine years away, we will, hopefully, have some stability.

[jjlynn27]

fblm said:

PMI's are important. These numbers are not good, but neither are they at all surprising given the timing. It's funny to see the joy bad news brings to some remainers, like winning on the internet is some sad consolation prize for losing the referendum.

Joy? Please point out any joy in any post.

ETC ? > .

Edited by jjlynn27 on Friday 22 July 15:53

[Derek Smith]

fido said:

Agree with the general sentiments - but Project Fear-Mongers jumping on headlines using words like 'dramatic deterioration’ is sort of the same thing! If this short-term downturn is expected as you say - then the headlines would reflect such an expectation - and not make the Remainers wet their pants with excitement because they want to hump the EU and demand a second referendum.

From what I've seen, the support remain voters are not the ones moaning all the time. We keep reading on PH threads about project fear. Yeah, right. And it might be helpful is you just leave (pun intended) out the childish comments.

I voted remain but now my intent is to make the best of a bad job. The referendum is over. However:

"The pro-Remain camp must also feel fairly vindicated this Friday; a month after the referendum the impact of the Brexit is beginning to materialise, a trend that is only likely to continue in the coming weeks."

Vindicated is not wetting your pants.

I think everyone suggested there would be what was termed 'short term' problems (was this your project?) The difficulty is in knowing how short short is meant to be. The thing is that no one knows. We can hope that it will be short, but that is built on nothing.

It might be that we get a rapid agreement with the EU that means confidence will increase. We can hope.

[Mario149]

fblm said:

It's funny to see the joy bad news brings to some remainers, like winning on the internet is some sad consolation prize for losing the referendum.

And we also see the people who "won" the referendum gloating on here and telling people who voted to Remain that we're just sore losers, to just deal with it and get with the program, as if we should just shut up and not critique things solely because a majority of only 1 in 25 people has somehow become a thundering and unequivocal vindication of a political/economic idea that cannot be questioned or pulled apart.

My particular bug bear is being told I'm going through X stages of grief. I'm not going through any stages, I'm just angry because I think Brexit is a bad idea on many levels and that is unlikely to change.

[Digga]

JawKnee said:

PMI is an index of purchasing managers intentions at over 1800 british businesses. It predicted the 2008 crash and the 2012 slowdown well in advance.

If you have a problem with their opinions, talk to these purchasing managers. This isn't some sort of conspiracy. Nobody is throwing a strop but many are finding excuses to divert the blame from themselves...

Sure, but everyone expected a decline in PMI, no matter what the result of the referendum. Clearly there was expected to be a more pronounced effect if we voted to leave.

More significant IMHO is that PMI's been dropping steadily for some time. So blaming all of this on Brexit is disingenuous and dangerous because it deflects from scrutiny and action on other underlying issues.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-22/...

[pim]

No joy if it means jobs losses whoever they are.It is going to be very difficult to find a good deal at the end of the day.Some people expected after the Brexit vote immigrants would be on their way a week after.

That is not the way it is going to work.Iam just not sure if David Davidson and Boris Johnson are the right men for the job.

[mikemike08]

jjlynn27 said:

Cobnapint said:

jjlynn27 said:

Good news.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshi...

I'm always a bit cautious when I hear about Chinese 'investment'.

China is buying the world at the moment - probably due to the fact that it's companies are given very low interest rates from a central fund controlled by it's regime. This is not available for companies that want to compete with China, ie British construction companies.

So, not such good news.

What are you on about? 'China is buying the world at the moment' - what? Of course they are going to pick and chose what they are going to be investing in. Still don't see how this is not good news.

I am very confused, isn't that what the Brexit campaign argued against ? Business taking money out of the UK and into foreign countries ?

[StottyEvo]

ATG said:

Digga said:

ATG said:

jjlynn27 said:

I don't know who markit are, but that reads significantly worse than BBC? Am I reading things right?

Markit are a big financial data provider. They gather data and flog it. Similar to Reuters and Bloomberg, and in this case a bit like a private sector version of the ONS.

The sort of organisation who sell grossly expensive data about how people are not going to vote. Stuff like that.

How about approaching things with an open mind? We're not discussing whose football team is going to do well in the Lada Riva Cup. This isn't about trying to prove a point or winning some debating competition.

Good informative posts ATG, keep them up please. Not sure what Digga's agenda is...

[fido]

Derek Smith said:

Vindicated is not wetting your pants.

But that's the point - nothing has been vindicated.

From my own perspective - working in the City - it's been the best month for the last 18 months. Admitedly, there was little/no hiring before the Referendum, but literally the day after it's been very good (oddly enough even French banks have been hiring). Now, this is just in the area I work in and we have some time to go before Article 50 is invoked but nothing like the scare stories from the BBC and Independent (in particular). Anyway, let's wait and see in 12 months time ..

P.S. I use Markit data all the time, unlike 99% of people on this thread it seems!

Edited by fido on Friday 22 July 16:07

[Derek Smith]

fido said:

Derek Smith said:

Vindicated is not wetting your pants.

But that's the point - nothing has been vindicated. From my own perspective - working in the City - it's been the best month for the last 18 months. Admitedly, there was little/no hiring before the Referendum, but literally the day after it's been very good (oddly enough even French banks have been hiring). Now, this is just in the area I work in and we have some time to go before Article 50 is invoked but nothing like the scare stories from the BBC and Independent (in particular). Anyway, let's wait and see in 12 months time ..

The point was that remainers feel they have been vindicated. To suggest this is wetting their pants is childish and rather pathetic.

There is disruption. We can all see that. This was the prediction of both 'sides'. Now, though, is just concern about the outcome of the negotiations, in the main, I think.

You suggest a year will be enough time to tell. I don't agree. We will have to wait until negotiations are complete. I think there is a general expectation of an agreement similar to the Norwegian one. I'm not so sure that the EU would want that. But there is an expectation that things will go on much as before.

My feeling is that someone has jumped from a cliff and half way down reckons that it is not as bad as anyone said. He won't know what its effect will be until a bit later.

We don't know what the result of exit will be. Basing it on the results of one industry (if that's the word) for one month is not sensible. We don't know the results and won't know for some time. It is possible that the full effects won't occur for decades.

However, we've got to hope that those in charge of the negotiations, and May in particular, have good sense.

We won't know whether that hope is right or wrong for some time, and for certainly more than a year I think.

[fido]

Derek Smith said:

The point was that remainers feel they have been vindicated. To suggest this is wetting their pants is childish and rather pathetic.

Wetting your pants is childish! Though if we do end up with a Norwegian deal then that will be a terrible blow to the May government - I would expect Labour will be the third party behind UKIP after such a result.

Edited by fido on Friday 22 July 16:28