Brexit - real world implications

Brexit - real world implications

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Einion Yrth

19,575 posts

244 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
munky said:
BBC fact checker,
Right oh.

Robertj21a

16,477 posts

105 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
munky said:
Edited.....

Take a look at the FTSE 250, which is much more representative of the British economy, and let us know where that is compared to before the vote. Actually I'll save you the bother, as if you read the article you linked, you'll find this:
"The FTSE 250 index, which is considered a closer barometer to the UK economy than the blue chip index, has also bounced back. However, its recovery has been less impressive, as it is still 7.5pc lower than it was a week ago."
.
To be quite honest, I feel that a drop of ONLY 7.5% in the FTSE 250 after less than a week is quite incredible. If the doom-mongers were to be believed it would have dropped much further - and kept dropping.
Sounds like rather good news really, and after such a short time.

Podie

46,630 posts

275 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
Robertj21a said:
munky said:
Edited.....

Take a look at the FTSE 250, which is much more representative of the British economy, and let us know where that is compared to before the vote. Actually I'll save you the bother, as if you read the article you linked, you'll find this:
"The FTSE 250 index, which is considered a closer barometer to the UK economy than the blue chip index, has also bounced back. However, its recovery has been less impressive, as it is still 7.5pc lower than it was a week ago."
.
To be quite honest, I feel that a drop of ONLY 7.5% in the FTSE 250 after less than a week is quite incredible. If the doom-mongers were to be believed it would have dropped much further - and kept dropping.
Sounds like rather good news really, and after such a short time.
Weren't the doom Monterey saying the issues would be lost-Brexit - which we have actually yet to achieve.

don4l

10,058 posts

176 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
Bloody Hell! This is going to be a quoting nightmare. I'll be lucky if this gets posted before midnight.


munky said:
don4l said:
munky said:
don4l said:
It's a bit late for all this.

The referendum was last Thursday.
True. And yet, if you try warning people in advance, they just call it 'project fear' and ignore it anyway. What bugs me is that so many Leave voters (maybe many Remains as well, who knows) didn't have a clue what they were voting for, or what the ramifications were. That's partly their fault for voting without doing the research, but obviously much down to the Leave campaigners for (much more than the other side) making up and exaggerating their claims, and to the Remain campaigners for not giving them the facts that would actually help. Did anyone tell the Cornish how many EU financed projects there are in Cornwall? (I seem to remember 486 projects). I bet nobody told them.
The assumption that people who voted Leave were ill informed is a bit patronising.
Not *all* people, but a good deal of them. Unless you think these people are informed?
https://www.facebook.com/midlandstoday/videos/1015...
There are ill informed, ignorant, and racist people on both sides of the debate.

Only this morning, a PH'er told me to bugger off back to Ireland.

I'm sure that you will agree that such behaviour is totally unacceptable.
munky said:
don4l said:
I've known for years that I wanted out, and I've known exactly why.
Which implies additional possibilities such as you weren't going to change your mind no matter what the facts, or that you weren't informed. Or maybe you were informed and chose accordingly. I used to want out, until I started researching the facts and what those facts imply for the economy.
Once again, you are being patronising. You really do not want to believe that I know my own business. I started it in 1992.

Believe it, or not, I understand where every penny goes.

You say that you discovered "facts" when you did your research.

Tell me, how much does your compliance with EU directives cost you? You don't have a clue. I would suggest that you do not have any "facts" at all. Many times, in this and other related threads, I have invited people to prove me wrong. Once again, I extend that invitation.

I suspect that your "facts" consist of little more than "44% of our exports" go to the EU. Or perhaps you might be worried by the fact that 3.3M jobs depend on trade with the EU. These are indeed "facts", but unless you can demonstrate the effect that our withdrawl is going to have, then they are utterly meaningless "facts".
munky said:
don4l said:
I see useless burdens placed on business that make UK companies less competitive in the global economy.
How do you see them, and do you have examples?
I'll quite happily admit that small businesses, especially those that don't export to the global economy, would benefit due to less red tape. If their customers still have any money, that is. Large businesses however overwhelmingly supported Remain as the benefits of the single market far outweigh any burdens.
I run a small business. However I also import and export around the world.

How much import duty do you think that I pay on fibre optic equipment that I import from China?


How much import duty do you think that I pay on fibre optic equipment that I import from the USA?


How much import duty do you think that I pay on fibre optic equipment that I import from the France?

The answer, in all cases is 0%.

Goods take one day to get here from France or the USA. They take three days from China (because the plane stops in Singapore).

We also import from Poland. Goods take three days from Poland because they travel by lorry.

Absolutely none of this will change for me if we exit the EU




munky said:
don4l said:
I see the constant erosion of our sovereignty.
Meaning what though? We still have our sovereign. She's known as the Queen.
Having a Queen does not mean that you have control over your own laws.

I think that you know this, so I won't put any effort into answering.
munky said:
don4l said:
I see a bunch of, mainly socialist, idiots in Brussels heading merrily towards ever closer union, and at the same time they are trying to integrate the economies of Greece with the economy of Germany. That is never going to work.
It's the currency union without fiscal union that doesn't work. More union would resolve that, as would the abandonment of the single currency. Don't confuse the Eurozone with the EU though. The economy of Alabama is 'integrated' with the economy of California after all, with a single currency but crucially a central federal government with powers of taxation and spending. It has some federal laws and it has devolved laws, just like the EU and indeed the UK.
California is a fcked as the EU.

They are running out of water.

And they are running out of electricity.
munky said:
don4l said:
I have my reasons for voting Leave. They are real reasons, and I can defend them all.

The remain argument was based on pure FUD. Fear, uncertainty and doubt.
I agree, they didn't mention nearly enough about the positives of remaining. However the Leave campaign outright lied. And then admitted afterwards that they lied. Therefore much of the vote was based on lies. Not saying yours was, or all of the vote was, but much of it.
Perhaps you could tell us what lies the Leave campaign was based on.

Before you rise to this challenge, I would caution you that I will give at least 5 Remain lies for every one "Leave" lie that you mention.

I'll start you off with:-

3.3M jobs will be lost if we leave the EU.

By the end of the campaign, this outrageous lie had become, "3.3M jobs are linked to trade with the EU".




Edited by don4l on Wednesday 29th June 21:40

Soov535

35,829 posts

271 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
FTSE now about pre Brexit level


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36660133


xjay1337

15,966 posts

118 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
munky said:
don4l said:
I see the constant erosion of our sovereignty.
Meaning what though? We still have our sovereign. She's known as the Queen.
Ummmm, the Queen is a tourist attraction .

kiethton

13,895 posts

180 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
Soov535 said:
FTSE now about pre Brexit level


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36660133
Again you're looking at the wrong FTSE - maybe try the FTSE 250/All Share.

To give a better impression of whats happened try stripping out the foreign earnings of every constituent (basically most resources, oil and the bulk of pharma) - this will paint a far more realistic picture.

After that index the FTSE performance to the USD spot rate (majority of FTSE investors are abroad) and see what the chart looks like....

Tuna

19,930 posts

284 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
xjay1337 said:
Ummmm, the Queen is a tourist attraction .
Yes, but she's getting eroded. She used to be seven feet tall.

Soov535

35,829 posts

271 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
kiethton said:
Soov535 said:
FTSE now about pre Brexit level


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36660133
Again you're looking at the wrong FTSE - maybe try the FTSE 250/All Share.

To give a better impression of whats happened try stripping out the foreign earnings of every constituent (basically most resources, oil and the bulk of pharma) - this will paint a far more realistic picture.

After that index the FTSE performance to the USD spot rate (majority of FTSE investors are abroad) and see what the chart looks like....
Pharma co's are benfitting fromt he lower ££

kiethton

13,895 posts

180 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
Soov535 said:
kiethton said:
Soov535 said:
FTSE now about pre Brexit level


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36660133
Again you're looking at the wrong FTSE - maybe try the FTSE 250/All Share.

To give a better impression of whats happened try stripping out the foreign earnings of every constituent (basically most resources, oil and the bulk of pharma) - this will paint a far more realistic picture.

After that index the FTSE performance to the USD spot rate (majority of FTSE investors are abroad) and see what the chart looks like....
Pharma co's are benfitting fromt he lower ££
Exactly, as the proportion of their revenues come in USD in alternative markets, they are just listed here.

To gauge the true affect on the UK businesses the majority of their revenues would need to be stripped from Mcap determining their index weighting

munky

5,328 posts

248 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
So some good news last night, the French interior minister announced that there are no current plans to rescind the Le Touquet agreement. That should keep his colleagues that said otherwise quiet for a while.

AJL308

6,390 posts

156 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
plasticpig said:
David Cameroon. Anyone could vote for him; all they had to do was join the conservative party.
The point I replied to though was one where someone mentioned that the next PM would be 'unelected'. He was talking in the context of MP's. We don't elect PM's in this Country. The Government of the day appoints one.

Even in your point above then the next PM would be elected as CMD was as they will be elected by the party. Although, as I say, that wasn't what the poster I replied to meant.

AJL308

6,390 posts

156 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
I see the constant erosion of our sovereignty.

Meaning what though? We still have our sovereign. She's known as the Queen.
That is a basic misunderstanding on your part though. Parliament is the Sovereign power in the UK.

Edited by AJL308 on Thursday 30th June 14:01

Mr GrimNasty

8,172 posts

170 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
munky said:
So some good news last night, the French interior minister announced that there are no current plans to rescind the Le Touquet agreement. That should keep his colleagues that said otherwise quiet for a while.
Under international law we would just return all stowaways directly to France anyway, it would make the situation far worse for France, not better, if they ripped up the agreement and pissed us off.

Also much backtracking on 'freedom of movement not up for discussion' going on.

Oh, And Sturgeon/NI/Giblets have been told no special EU arrangements, it's an internal UK thing.

The world's coming right for Brexit.

Edited by Mr GrimNasty on Thursday 30th June 13:58

munky

5,328 posts

248 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all

lostkiwi

4,584 posts

124 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
munky said:
The Kiwis will let you borrow (hire) 40 odd of theirs if you like.

We learnt all about trade negotiations after 1973....

don4l

10,058 posts

176 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
munky said:
I wouldn't worry.

Tusk told us, yesterday, that we couldn' have a trade deal without free movement of people. We have just voted against that.

So, there isn't any need for negotiations.

Edited by don4l on Thursday 30th June 15:24

RYH64E

7,960 posts

244 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
I wouldn't worry.

Tusk told us, yesterday, that we couldn' have a trade deal without free movement of people. W£e have just voted against that.

So, there isn't any need for negotiations.
We have? I thought we voted to leave, I don't remember seeing many actual details from the leave side (apart from stuff like £300m a week to the NHS...), I'm sure I remember claims from the leave side that immigration wasn't even a major factor for most voters. Free movement wasn't on the ballot paper.

AJL308

6,390 posts

156 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
don4l said:
I wouldn't worry.

Tusk told us, yesterday, that we couldn' have a trade deal without free movement of people. W£e have just voted against that.

So, there isn't any need for negotiations.
We have? I thought we voted to leave, I don't remember seeing many actual details from the leave side (apart from stuff like £300m a week to the NHS...), I'm sure I remember claims from the leave side that immigration wasn't even a major factor for most voters. Free movement wasn't on the ballot paper.
It's not true anyway. He referred to the Single Market - not a trade deal, specifically.

Besides, we now have some French guy on Newsnight last night saying that "everything" was up for discussion.

Hol

8,412 posts

200 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
AJL308 said:
don4l said:
I see the constant erosion of our sovereignty.

Meaning what though? We still have our sovereign. She's known as the Queen.
That is a basic misunderstanding on your part though. Parliament is the Sovereign power in the UK.

Edited by AJL308 on Thursday 30th June 14:01
He means the Sovereigns on his gold rings (left hand obviously).