Brexit - real world implications

[kurt535]

I have restored my house 1 year too late! However, if there are any Brexiteers who fancy buying it for full value prior to 24th, drop me a pm please?

[lostkiwi]

LittleEnus said:

lostkiwi said:

Seriously?
You must be reading different threads to me.
A Brexit supporters only tonight implied I leave and take the rest of the moaners with me (which as an immigrant is offensive).
There were several others who had similar suggestions made to them.
Since when is the answer to anyone who disagrees with a point of view to get them to leave the country. It might have been popular back in 1939 with some folks but hopefully we've progressed a bit since then.

It is probably because you crop up on every damn post to do with Brexit whining and whining and whining. Give it a rest.

So I'm not allowed an opinion?
And if I have one I can't voice it?

[Blue Cat]

Tuna said:

..

Project Fear was called that for a reason you know?


I'm not proud that having been given a challenge, a portion of this population is utterly unwilling to try and make a difference.

I'm not proud that after the country voted for self-determination, some people have don't seem to understand that they now have the chance to shape the society we want.

I'm not proud that people on both sides believe that immigration = racism

Maybe I am missing something but I keep seeing posts like this, rise to the challenge, shape the society we want and I keep asking myself just how are we meant to do this?

Just what can the ordinary man do now that they couldn't do prior to the vote, do you really believe that we really now have more self-determination than we did last week?

What is the challenge and what am I meant to to do to meet it?

We are going to be leaving the EU, but how we do it and what we end up with, is not going to be down to us but with whoever is in power at Westminster.

This is not a Brave New World, it's just a change in Management

[Podie]

Tuna said:

munky said:

Real world implications is the thread title, ok I have put together a few.

...

Proud?

Most of what you put was not actual consequences, but more conjecture based on no solid information.

Isn't that what implication means?

[vonuber]

Tsk munky, you forgot the extremely small issue of Northern Ireland..

[Tuna]

Blue Cat said:

Just what can the ordinary man do now that they couldn't do prior to the vote, do you really believe that we really now have more self-determination than we did last week?

...

This is not a Brave New World, it's just a change in Management

Take part in the discussion. Help decide the management change. The leadership of both main parties is up for grabs and part of the negotiation will involve deciding what we want. So rather than talking about how it can't possibly work, why not ask for what we want? Why not pressure your local MP, MEP to pay attention to the needs of businesses, or focus on STEM subjects in school. In between the articles telling everyone why they were wrong, I've learnt a whole load of stuff I didn't previously know about finance, law and international relations. This could be an absolutely defining moment in British history, so it seems a good idea to push for positive change.

And it's a small thing, but rather than complaining that people are racist and you can't buy Camembert as cheaply, why not buy some nice Stilton and go tell your Polish neighbour that you're glad to know them?

[Tuna]

Podie said:

Isn't that what implication means?

Haha, indeed. English never was my strong suit.

[Robertj21a]

munky said:

Real world implications is the thread title, ok I have put together a few.

The world's most respected economics newspaper has this to say. Even the URL tells you a lot.
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21701265-how...

We will have an unelected PM. Our credit rating has been cut.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36644934

We, and our children, will no longer have the right to work and live in Europe. The Brexiters have cut back the opportunities for the next generation. Overwhelmingly, the elderly with the least time to live voted out, whereas overwhelmingly the young with the longest to live with the decision, voted Remain.

The Leave campaigners admit they lied. Gullible people believed the lies. For example, the £350m a week nonsense.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendu...

Many Brexit voters regret their ignorance of the facts: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brex...

Spain wants Gibraltar back. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36618796

Scotland wants out of the UK and this time will likely get it. Businesses responded to a IOD survey saying that a quarter of them will freeze hiring as a result of the vote, 5% will cut, and two thirds say it's negative for their business.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36636574

Then there's Vodafone, the first of many: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36656039

Pensions: company pension deficits have just increased, due to the reduction in the long term interest rates by which pension funds must discount their liabilities, in turn due to investors taking fright and switching from equities and corporate bonds into the relative safety of gilts. It remains to be seen whether this is a persistent or short term effect. Hymans Robertson, a consultancy, estimated that Friday’s bond-yield dip raised the collective corporate deficit by £80 billion ($106 billion), ten times Britain’s annual contribution to the EU. Further falls will only increase the bill.

Cornwall and Wales have realised that they face a huge reduction in their budget as they were large recipients of EU cash, and have inisted that the rest of the UK foot the bill to maintain the lost funding, even though they voted to leave; the turkeys actually voted for Christmas. Tough.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/bre...

What else. So, France no longer wants to host UK border controls on their side, so the immigrants will find it much easier to get across and claim asylum. I find that the most amusing; immigration was a big part of the Brexiters' reason for leaving, and yet asylum claims will increase. The Polish immigrants will stay, because they've been here a long time and after 3 years they can apply for citizenship, which they will.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36626553

Racist attacks, both verbal and physical, have increased. Including against non-EU victims, many of them British citizens that happen to be non-white (highlights the stupidity) often accompanied by shouts of "we voted you out". There is a worrying indication of a rise in far-right support, just like happened in Germany in the 1930s. We know where that led to, and the EU came into being to unite Europe and prevent that happening in the future. The Brexit vote has just made that likelihood increase again. Well done.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/manches...


The Brexiters think that we will still get access to the single market, except that to do so it still needs to pay the fees, and still needs to follow all the rules without having a say in what those rules are.

The UK is now a laughing stock, for example here's a quote by German MP and ally of Merkel, Michael Fuchs: With a chuckle, he made it clear things were going to have to change. "Either you are in a club or you are out of a club. If you are in a club you have to follow the rules. If you are out of the club, there will be different rules," he said.

Asked if it would be possible for the UK to retain access to the single market, he replied: "It will be possible, of course, but not for free.

"You have to see with Norway, with Switzerland, you have to pay a certain fee. And the per capita fee of Norway is exactly the same as what Britain is now paying into the EU. So there won't be any savings."

Finally, think about who recommended leaving, and who recommended staying, which really says all there needs to be said:

Stay: Barrack Obama, 8 former US treasury secretaries, the vast majority of large businesses, the IMF, the OECD, the CBI, respected economists.
Leave: Marine Le Pen, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin.

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21701264-bri...


Finally, I'll leave you with the typical exit voters in the Midlands on June 24th (page: BBC Midlands Today) https://www.facebook.com/midlandstoday/videos/1015...

Proud?

So, just so that I'm quite sure, you don't seem to think that Leave was the right decision.....

Perhaps we should leave you out of the new 'Let's all pull together' party.

[kurt535]

Real world implication:

i'm writing a bid here that needs to be in by 5th July

It will use £xxxxxxxand £xxxxxxx and £xxxxxxx to train unemployed people in various quals, both academic and vocational, to be eligible to get jobs in high-skilled areas of industry who are from areas of high unemployment and social need. we aren't talking your usual cscs card here either. suite of training courses including things like NDT, hydraulics, electrical installation.

I have various employer mandates I've worked a year on who are sanctioning me to recruit people from places you'd rather not live. i've had to ring all the employers in the last 48 hours to see how they are left and all are still prepared to honour their commitment - for the time being

and the rub: the money is from Europe

So, i'm writing the document as I dip in and out of PH and i have to admit, I am losing the will to write it. i don't actually want to go and work with people I know who are so anti europe but who have sat on their arses for years on the benefits gravy train. but on the other side, i have a lot of jobs in my hand....

[jjlynn27]

Robertj21a said:

So, just so that I'm quite sure, you don't seem to think that Leave was the right decision.....

Perhaps we should leave you out of the new 'Let's all pull together' party.

I hear/read this 'let's pull it together' 'lets now work hard'. I don't understand what that means.

[ATG]

Don said:

I work in Fintech. (Love this new super-silly jargon). Financial services software to the rest of us.

No change in business. Existing projects all going ahead. New ones being commissioned.

Might be different in a year's time, I suppose. We'll see.

Same area as me. If anything the impact on banks is likely to create more work for technologists. Not sure one could class that as good news. It's a bit like saying that recessions are good because it creates work for insolvency practitioners.

I've already mentioned it on other threads, but my employer expects to move between 5% and 25% of its London job roles into the EU. That's several thousand very well paid, highly skilled roles moving abroad, taking their tax payment and consumer spending out of the UK.

On a far smaller scale, the wife and I are pushing back a building project at home. Given more uncertainty in my industry, we'd rather keep money in the bank at the moment. That building project would probably have shoved a couple of hundred thousand pounds of wages into our local, rural economy.

[munky]

Tuna said:

munky said:

Real world implications is the thread title, ok I have put together a few.

...

Proud?

Most of what you put was not actual consequences, but more conjecture based on no solid information.

The Vodaphone link - they're 'considering moving' - means they're planning to negotiate incentives to stay, like any multinational.

Scotland leaving - Sturgeon is 'thinking about it' - it would be a suicidal move and possibly not even legally possible, not least because Scotland doesn't meet the criteria set by the EU.

..

Project Fear was called that for a reason you know?

I'm not proud of the people who are so determined to look for a reason that they are right, that they will trot out any damaging rumour they can find.

I'm not proud that having been given a challenge, a portion of this population is utterly unwilling to try and make a difference.

I'm not proud that after the country voted for self-determination, some people have don't seem to understand that they now have the chance to shape the society we want.

I'm not proud that people on both sides believe that immigration = racism

Pedantically, the thread title says "implications", not "actual consequences". Obviously, not all the consequences are known yet. It will take years. And you picked one item from my list - Vodafone - that is a threat of leaving the UK - and you called "most" of it conjecture. You ignored the ones that have actually happened, like the credit ratings downgrades. And the realisation dawning on Cornwall and Wales that they're up st creek and voted away their paddle.

Besides which, you're utterly missing the point which is that uncertainty is the killer here - precisely because so many things are yet unknown, it will kill investment (foreign and domestic) because businesses hate uncertainty. It's a fact of life.

By the way, I mentioned Scotland leaving the UK, which they are legally allowed to do (with permission from London for a referendum, which will be given as it was last time).

The exiters of course don't have any solid arguments, so they wave their hands and mutter about a "challenge" and "pulling together" but it's all impractical claptrap. People will continue doing their jobs, to the best of their ability, as they did last week, except they're pissed off because the challenge is a man-made one with little benefit other than some silly nationalism. It's like shooting yourself in the foot purposely because you want a challenge. Tell that to the people that will lose their job, or are now denied the right to work in Europe, or those that won't be able to afford food. Tell them it's just a challenge and that they are just being unwilling to make a difference. Go on.

And then you can tell us, what are you doing to "make a difference" as you put it? Let us all know one thing you've done, or will do.

Self-determination you say? Really. Are you now free, to make up your own personal laws? Can you evade your local by-laws? No. Can your local council ignore English law (or Scottish law, if that's where you are)? No. Can GB ignore international law? Or NATO rules? No. Cornwall is still subject to laws made in London, even if they disagree. Is that self-determination? What's the difference between an elected MP in Westminster voting on laws and an elected MEP in Brussels voting on laws? If a person disagrees with something decided on in Brussels that Germany and France MEPs voted for, it's no different to Cornwall disagreeing with something that Kent & Essex MPs voted for. It's irrelevant. The thing that actually mattered was the free trade area and the right to live & work anywhere in the EU, and that has been lost by those voting to cut their noses off to spite their face.

As to your childlike comment about people looking for a reason that they're right... why? Only a sad keyboard warrior would think that scoring points on some website is more important than their country's and children's future. Today is the first time I've ever posted anything on PH about the referendum (or indeed about anything, for a year or so), so I have nothing to prove as I gave no view. Right now, the evidence points to it being like the biggest mistake the country has made in a very long time and I've given ex-post evidence of why it looks that way - it's cause and effect, not trying to fit an argument. Rather than proving myself right, I'd actually very much like to be wrong on this occasion. I would truly, madly love to be wrong, for the sake of what will remain of the UK. When unemployment falls, food prices fall, trade and investment increase and the UK has remained united, come back and tell me I'm wrong as I want to hear that news. Meanwhile I've got actual work to get back to, you carry on here if you like.

[munky]

vonuber said:

Tsk munky, you forgot the extremely small issue of Northern Ireland..

You're right, my apologies. At this moment it's not so clear that NI would split from the UK though, even if they did vote to remain in the EU.

There is the unresolved matter of what happens with the NI - Eire border though, since that should stay open as it's a key part of peace in Ireland and nobody in their right mind would close it. But, if it's open, anyone from within the EU can turn up in Eire and cross the open border into NI and from there to the mainland. So the EU migrants get here anyway, so what's the point of a Brexit?

[ATG]

munky said:

And there's this gem of an article from Feb, about the voters. The BBC copied it, and ran it the day after the vote.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21693223-bri...

This with nobs on.

People who feel confident about their ability to work, to do well, to have a good life generally see EU membership as something that creates opportunities. Those lacking that confidence, feeling hard done by, are far more likely to see it as a threat, part of the system that is giving them a raw deal.

In reality leaving the EU is not going to help that latter group. It is becoming ever more urgent that we start bridging the divide the article describes. I hope to god that that is near the front of people's minds as they choose the news leaders of the UK's main political parties. We need people like Stephen Crabb at the helm.

[ATG]

boxxob said:

2016 has been a poor year for european banks regardless of the referendum (and result).

We're not a European bank and we're doing well. We aren't talking about reducing our headcount, just relocating roles from London into the EU. That is entirely driven by the outcome of the referendum.

[Terminator X]

munky said:

The exiters of course don't have any solid arguments, so they wave their hands and mutter about a "challenge" and "pulling together" but it's all impractical claptrap. People will continue doing their jobs, to the best of their ability, as they did last week, except they're pissed off because the challenge is a man-made one with little benefit other than some silly nationalism. It's like shooting yourself in the foot purposely because you want a challenge. Tell that to the people that will lose their job, or are now denied the right to work in Europe, or those that won't be able to afford food. Tell them it's just a challenge and that they are just being unwilling to make a difference. Go on.

It's irrelevant. The thing that actually mattered was the free trade area and the right to live & work anywhere in the EU, and that has been lost by those voting to cut their noses off to spite their face.

As to your childlike comment about people looking for a reason that they're right... why? Only a sad keyboard warrior would think that scoring points on some website is more important than their country's and children's future. Today is the first time I've ever posted anything on PH about the referendum (or indeed about anything, for a year or so), so I have nothing to prove as I gave no view. Right now, the evidence points to it being like the biggest mistake the country has made in a very long time and I've given ex-post evidence of why it looks that way - it's cause and effect, not trying to fit an argument. Rather than proving myself right, I'd actually very much like to be wrong on this occasion. I would truly, madly love to be wrong, for the sake of what will remain of the UK. When unemployment falls, food prices fall, trade and investment increase and the UK has remained united, come back and tell me I'm wrong as I want to hear that news. Meanwhile I've got actual work to get back to, you carry on here if you like.

Far too soon to comment re bold items indeed could just be you being negative and may never happen. Decision made so best just make the best job of it that you can. Indeed we will do that as why would we wallow in self pity for things that may never occur?

TX.

[munky]

[Columbo]just one more thing..[/Columbo]

I presume it has already been discussed on here that the referendum is not legally binding, it's advisory and can be overruled, and that 52% is hardly a mandate etc etc. I think it's unlikely that it would be ignored though (the Greek way), and unlikely that there'll be a second referendum and third until the sensible answer comes out (the French way, on treaty changes).

So the most likely outcome is that our elected politicians (and an unelected PM) do what's sensible and negotiate to remain in the free trade area to avoid recession and ruining people's futures. That would mean that we still have freedom of movement, and we still pay to be a member. Which begs the question what was the point of leaving and dividing the country against each other if nothing really changes.. silly Cameron for holding a referendum. Some things are too important for the public to decide directly, and that's why we elect a government to decide things for us. Good job we don't have referenda on defence, taxation, education.. who knows what stupidity we'd vote for.

[Dakkon]

munky said:

Real world implications is the thread title, ok I have put together a few.

We, and our children, will no longer have the right to work and live in Europe. The Brexiters have cut back the opportunities for the next generation. Overwhelmingly, the elderly with the least time to live voted out, whereas overwhelmingly the young with the longest to live with the decision, voted Remain.

This im afraid is a load of rubbish, only 30% of the 18-24 could actually be bothered to get out of bed and vote, if they are so distressed by this impact on their future they should have got off their arses and voted like the rest of us, if they had the remain side would have won.

It is too late now to cry boo hoo because they had a very real opportunity to take control of their destiny and they could not be bothered.

[don4l]

munky said:

Pedantically, the thread title says "implications", not "actual consequences". Obviously, not all the consequences are known yet. It will take years. And you picked one item from my list - Vodafone - that is a threat of leaving the UK - and you called "most" of it conjecture. You ignored the ones that have actually happened, like the credit ratings downgrades. And the realisation dawning on Cornwall and Wales that they're up st creek and voted away their paddle.

Besides which, you're utterly missing the point which is that uncertainty is the killer here - precisely because so many things are yet unknown, it will kill investment (foreign and domestic) because businesses hate uncertainty. It's a fact of life.

By the way, I mentioned Scotland leaving the UK, which they are legally allowed to do (with permission from London for a referendum, which will be given as it was last time).

The exiters of course don't have any solid arguments, so they wave their hands and mutter about a "challenge" and "pulling together" but it's all impractical claptrap. People will continue doing their jobs, to the best of their ability, as they did last week, except they're pissed off because the challenge is a man-made one with little benefit other than some silly nationalism. It's like shooting yourself in the foot purposely because you want a challenge. Tell that to the people that will lose their job, or are now denied the right to work in Europe, or those that won't be able to afford food. Tell them it's just a challenge and that they are just being unwilling to make a difference. Go on.

And then you can tell us, what are you doing to "make a difference" as you put it? Let us all know one thing you've done, or will do.

Self-determination you say? Really. Are you now free, to make up your own personal laws? Can you evade your local by-laws? No. Can your local council ignore English law (or Scottish law, if that's where you are)? No. Can GB ignore international law? Or NATO rules? No. Cornwall is still subject to laws made in London, even if they disagree. Is that self-determination? What's the difference between an elected MP in Westminster voting on laws and an elected MEP in Brussels voting on laws? If a person disagrees with something decided on in Brussels that Germany and France MEPs voted for, it's no different to Cornwall disagreeing with something that Kent & Essex MPs voted for. It's irrelevant. The thing that actually mattered was the free trade area and the right to live & work anywhere in the EU, and that has been lost by those voting to cut their noses off to spite their face.

As to your childlike comment about people looking for a reason that they're right... why? Only a sad keyboard warrior would think that scoring points on some website is more important than their country's and children's future. Today is the first time I've ever posted anything on PH about the referendum (or indeed about anything, for a year or so), so I have nothing to prove as I gave no view. Right now, the evidence points to it being like the biggest mistake the country has made in a very long time and I've given ex-post evidence of why it looks that way - it's cause and effect, not trying to fit an argument. Rather than proving myself right, I'd actually very much like to be wrong on this occasion. I would truly, madly love to be wrong, for the sake of what will remain of the UK. When unemployment falls, food prices fall, trade and investment increase and the UK has remained united, come back and tell me I'm wrong as I want to hear that news. Meanwhile I've got actual work to get back to, you carry on here if you like.

It's a bit late for all this.

The referendum was last Thursday.

[romeogolf]

This "let's pull together" business is like your big brother throwing a party and then asking you to help clear up before your parents got home.

Your mess, your fix it. I'll let you get on with it, but don't expect me to smile.