Brexit - real world implications
Discussion
don4l said:
munky said:
I wouldn't worry.Tusk told us, yesterday, that we couldn' have a trade deal without free movement of people. We have just voted against that.
So, there isn't any need for negotiations.
Edited by don4l on Thursday 30th June 15:24
If you get access to the single market as an outside member (like Norway) then you don't need the negotiations.
However if you refuse to accept free movement of people then you don't get to access the single market as a member, so instead you become a trading partner of the EU (just like the USA is) meaning you have to negotiate trade deals with the EU.
Not only that, but no longer taking advantage of the EU's trade rules as an insider, it means you have to start again negotiating your own trade deals with every other country in the world. And that's why we apparently need 600 trade negotiators. Which we don't have. And even if we did, we are smaller than the EU, so we won't get as good a deal.
Or, you trade under the basic WTO rules, which as I read somewhere briefly aren't exactly ideal.
ETA: all above is AFAIK. I haven't double checked it as don't have the time now.
Edited by munky on Friday 1st July 17:23
munky said:
don4l said:
munky said:
I wouldn't worry.Tusk told us, yesterday, that we couldn' have a trade deal without free movement of people. We have just voted against that.
So, there isn't any need for negotiations.
Edited by don4l on Thursday 30th June 15:24
If you get access to the single market as an outside member (like Norway) then you don't need the negotiations.
However if you refuse to accept free movement of people then you don't get to access the single market as a member, so instead you become a trading partner of the EU (just like the USA is) meaning you have to negotiate trade deals with the EU.
Not only that, but no longer taking advantage of the EU's trade rules as an insider, it means you have to start again negotiating your own trade deals with every other country in the world. And that's why we apparently need 600 trade negotiators. Which we don't have. And even if we did, we are smaller than the EU, so we won't get as good a deal.
Or, you trade under the basic WTO rules, which as I read somewhere briefly aren't exactly ideal.
ETA: all above is AFAIK. I haven't double checked it as don't have the time now.
Edited by munky on Friday 1st July 17:23
And we would be free to make new trading agreement outside EFTA/EEA. And we could take advantage of all the EFTA infrastructure for doing trade talks throughout the world.
FredClogs said:
Real lives, real people. Good people who've worked hard all their lives and expected the government to at least have considered and planned for this eventuality.
The 'government' couldn't have been any clearer about the potential currency turmoil! Nor is there anything they could do about it. In any event, whilst I genuinely sympathise with those not deliberatly taking risk and still 'losing money' to the vagaries of the fx market, it sounds like they started building in the last year so were in fact benefiting from the best eurgbp rates in the last 8 years in their earlier payments. Even now eurgbp is still considerably lower than it was for most of 2009 to 2014. s2art said:
Its a tad more complicated. If we got Norway status (EFTA and EEA) then we could limit free movement via the emergency brake that is in that particular agreement. We would still have tariff free access to the single market.
And we would be free to make new trading agreement outside EFTA/EEA. And we could take advantage of all the EFTA infrastructure for doing trade talks throughout the world.
Why would a tory government limit cheap labour?And we would be free to make new trading agreement outside EFTA/EEA. And we could take advantage of all the EFTA infrastructure for doing trade talks throughout the world.
Derek Smith said:
s2art said:
Its a tad more complicated. If we got Norway status (EFTA and EEA) then we could limit free movement via the emergency brake that is in that particular agreement. We would still have tariff free access to the single market.
And we would be free to make new trading agreement outside EFTA/EEA. And we could take advantage of all the EFTA infrastructure for doing trade talks throughout the world.
Why would a tory government limit cheap labour?And we would be free to make new trading agreement outside EFTA/EEA. And we could take advantage of all the EFTA infrastructure for doing trade talks throughout the world.
KrissKross said:
One switched on young lady, clearly understands why she is standing there with her placard. Puts all us thick old duffers in our place. I am humbled and ashamed.
SeeFive said:
KrissKross said:
One switched on young lady, clearly understands why she is standing there with her placard. Puts all us thick old duffers in our place. I am humbled and ashamed.
SeeFive said:
KrissKross said:
One switched on young lady, clearly understands why she is standing there with her placard. Puts all us thick old duffers in our place. I am humbled and ashamed.
No doubt the producers of 'Big Brother' will be in contact shortly, clearly a star in the making.
And the good news keeps on coming.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36708844
Which tells you what investors think of the UK's future demand for office space.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36708844
Which tells you what investors think of the UK's future demand for office space.
AJL308 said:
don4l said:
I see the constant erosion of our sovereignty.
Meaning what though? We still have our sovereign. She's known as the Queen.
That is a basic misunderstanding on your part though. Parliament is the Sovereign power in the UK. Meaning what though? We still have our sovereign. She's known as the Queen.
Edited by AJL308 on Thursday 30th June 14:01
Found this interesting article in the Economist from back in March, that discusses the difference between the illusion and reality of 'sovereignty'.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21695056-tal...
munky said:
You misquoted, it was me that said that, as a flippant reply to those that waffle on about getting 'sovereignty' back, usually not being able to say what they mean by that. Or why it even matters.
Found this interesting article in the Economist from back in March, that discusses the difference between the illusion and reality of 'sovereignty'.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21695056-tal...
Don't be so negative, you'll talk this country into recession. Or worse. Found this interesting article in the Economist from back in March, that discusses the difference between the illusion and reality of 'sovereignty'.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21695056-tal...
munky said:
don4l said:
munky said:
I wouldn't worry.Tusk told us, yesterday, that we couldn' have a trade deal without free movement of people. We have just voted against that.
So, there isn't any need for negotiations.
Edited by don4l on Thursday 30th June 15:24
If you get access to the single market as an outside member (like Norway) then you don't need the negotiations.
However if you refuse to accept free movement of people then you don't get to access the single market as a member, so instead you become a trading partner of the EU (just like the USA is) meaning you have to negotiate trade deals with the EU.
Not only that, but no longer taking advantage of the EU's trade rules as an insider, it means you have to start again negotiating your own trade deals with every other country in the world. And that's why we apparently need 600 trade negotiators. Which we don't have. And even if we did, we are smaller than the EU, so we won't get as good a deal.
Or, you trade under the basic WTO rules, which as I read somewhere briefly aren't exactly ideal.
ETA: all above is AFAIK. I haven't double checked it as don't have the time now.
Edited by munky on Friday 1st July 17:23
There is absolutely no need to negotiate a "deal" with the EU.
Really.
jjlynn27 said:
munky said:
You misquoted, it was me that said that, as a flippant reply to those that waffle on about getting 'sovereignty' back, usually not being able to say what they mean by that. Or why it even matters.
Found this interesting article in the Economist from back in March, that discusses the difference between the illusion and reality of 'sovereignty'.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21695056-tal...
Don't be so negative, you'll talk this country into recession. Or worse. Found this interesting article in the Economist from back in March, that discusses the difference between the illusion and reality of 'sovereignty'.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21695056-tal...
I usually think of you as being in the "talking Britain down" camp.
I've seen you as being the same as the trotskyists that I knew in the 80's.
They led their men into unemployment, and then spent the next 30 years blaming Maggie.
Real Life effect.
Just spent last 10 days in France wakening to the news last Thursday with a sense of relief.
Asked a few pople in France what they thought and it was the typical gallic shrug of the shoulders. No one seemed bothered in the slightest.
Everyone hit panic stations in the UK and much headless chickens action seemed to be taking place. Best place for news was actually PH.
In contrast the relaxed Cote D'azur was stinking hot but the beer was cold and the food was excellent.
Back in harness this morning and first action was to order load of stuff from a supplier in the EU.
Sales going extremely well, he had extended a spring promotion for us on the best seller until the end of June and I thought why not ask for another extension not really expecting anything.
We got the extension without any quibbles until end of the year. He doesn't want to lose us.
The exchange rate has dropped by 4 cents, variable transportation costs can have as big an impact.
It's nowt in the scheme of things.
His stuff is brilliant and we are good at selling it. Looking forward to a good remainder of the year. Life goes on, people buy things they like and people sell things they can make a margin on.
Crisis, what crisis?
Cheers,
Tony
Just spent last 10 days in France wakening to the news last Thursday with a sense of relief.
Asked a few pople in France what they thought and it was the typical gallic shrug of the shoulders. No one seemed bothered in the slightest.
Everyone hit panic stations in the UK and much headless chickens action seemed to be taking place. Best place for news was actually PH.
In contrast the relaxed Cote D'azur was stinking hot but the beer was cold and the food was excellent.
Back in harness this morning and first action was to order load of stuff from a supplier in the EU.
Sales going extremely well, he had extended a spring promotion for us on the best seller until the end of June and I thought why not ask for another extension not really expecting anything.
We got the extension without any quibbles until end of the year. He doesn't want to lose us.
The exchange rate has dropped by 4 cents, variable transportation costs can have as big an impact.
It's nowt in the scheme of things.
His stuff is brilliant and we are good at selling it. Looking forward to a good remainder of the year. Life goes on, people buy things they like and people sell things they can make a margin on.
Crisis, what crisis?
Cheers,
Tony
munky said:
And the good news keeps on coming.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36708844
Which tells you what investors think of the UK's future demand for office space.
It's the uncertainty pending the pressing of the button for Article 50 that's the issue. Construction sector continues to contracthttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36708844
Which tells you what investors think of the UK's future demand for office space.
https://next.ft.com/content/1a4905c7-03ce-3e60-a18...
All of my clients are UK based, I'm in Sweden.
No immediate observations from them yet but I'm sure we will see some impacts.
But for me, it going to be how weak the £ get's against the Swedish Krona as to how much less salary I am going to get each month, looks like I will be a few £ out of pocket each month for the time being :-(
Also, I am now faced with having to go through the process of applying for Swedish citizenship as there is no guarantee yet what my status would be here, also I like to travel around Europe with my wife who has a Swedish passport and I don't fancy being in a different passport checking line waiting whilst she just swans through.
The other thing that might be an issue is I would have to pay import duty and taxes on items from the UK as I do from the US.
No immediate observations from them yet but I'm sure we will see some impacts.
But for me, it going to be how weak the £ get's against the Swedish Krona as to how much less salary I am going to get each month, looks like I will be a few £ out of pocket each month for the time being :-(
Also, I am now faced with having to go through the process of applying for Swedish citizenship as there is no guarantee yet what my status would be here, also I like to travel around Europe with my wife who has a Swedish passport and I don't fancy being in a different passport checking line waiting whilst she just swans through.
The other thing that might be an issue is I would have to pay import duty and taxes on items from the UK as I do from the US.
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