Brexit - real world implications

[NRS]

Oceanic said:

All of my clients are UK based, I'm in Sweden.

No immediate observations from them yet but I'm sure we will see some impacts.

But for me, it going to be how weak the £ get's against the Swedish Krona as to how much less salary I am going to get each month, looks like I will be a few £ out of pocket each month for the time being :-(

Also, I am now faced with having to go through the process of applying for Swedish citizenship as there is no guarantee yet what my status would be here, also I like to travel around Europe with my wife who has a Swedish passport and I don't fancy being in a different passport checking line waiting whilst she just swans through.

The other thing that might be an issue is I would have to pay import duty and taxes on items from the UK as I do from the US.

No need to apply for a Swedish passport just yet. There's still 2+ years to go, so plenty of time to see what actually happens. I can claim a Norwegian one too if I want, but no need to rush it until you know what benefits you the most (ignoring any patriotism and wanting to remain British stuff).

[Oceanic]

NRS said:

No need to apply for a Swedish passport just yet. There's still 2+ years to go, so plenty of time to see what actually happens. I can claim a Norwegian one too if I want, but no need to rush it until you know what benefits you the most (ignoring any patriotism and wanting to remain British stuff).

It was something I was thinking of doing anyway TBH, but what I don't want to happen is be at the back of the line for applications, there is already a 17month wait for processing. I become eligible in October so that is when I will apply. The Swedish passport is slightly better than the UK one as it stands right now, I think it will be a lot more useful if the UK can't do some deals.

[RYH64E]

I've just come off the phone after talking to the people who do my currency transactions, they're strongly recommending buying USD forward at current rates of 1.31, they think therre will be steady falls and once we break through the 1.30 level the falls will accelerate. They're expecting low growth (if any), more QE and interest rate cuts (as hinted at by the BofE). I'm ok until the end of August as I bought forward just before the referendum, but at their predicted levels of 1.15 (GBP/USD) there will be tough times ahead for importers, and as a country we import an awful lot of product.

[Mrr T]

don4l said:

Perhaps you should take the time to double check it.

There is absolutely no need to negotiate a "deal" with the EU.

Really.

You can tell Don4l is a kipper. He truly believes if you say something often enough it will become true.

In the real world the rest of us know we will need to negotiate with the EU to resolve how to exit with minimum interference to trade and people.

[don4l]

Mrr T said:

don4l said:

Perhaps you should take the time to double check it.

There is absolutely no need to negotiate a "deal" with the EU.

Really.

You can tell Don4l is a kipper. He truly believes if you say something often enough it will become true.

In the real world the rest of us know we will need to negotiate with the EU to resolve how to exit with minimum interference to trade and people.

Are David Owen and Nigel Lawson also Kippers?

http://www.lorddavidowen.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/...

Owen and Lawson said:

We do not need to negotiate "access" to the Single Market.

[rscott]

don4l said:

Mrr T said:

don4l said:

Perhaps you should take the time to double check it.

There is absolutely no need to negotiate a "deal" with the EU.

Really.

You can tell Don4l is a kipper. He truly believes if you say something often enough it will become true.

In the real world the rest of us know we will need to negotiate with the EU to resolve how to exit with minimum interference to trade and people.

Are David Owen and Nigel Lawson also Kippers?

http://www.lorddavidowen.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/...

Owen and Lawson said:

We do not need to negotiate "access" to the Single Market.

If we don't negotiate 'access' to the Single Market, then how much of our financial operations will move to EU countries?

I'm assuming you're happy to go to WTO tariff rates?

[jjlynn27]

rscott said:

don4l said:

Mrr T said:

don4l said:

Perhaps you should take the time to double check it.

There is absolutely no need to negotiate a "deal" with the EU.

Really.

You can tell Don4l is a kipper. He truly believes if you say something often enough it will become true.

In the real world the rest of us know we will need to negotiate with the EU to resolve how to exit with minimum interference to trade and people.

Are David Owen and Nigel Lawson also Kippers?

http://www.lorddavidowen.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/...

Owen and Lawson said:

We do not need to negotiate "access" to the Single Market.

If we don't negotiate 'access' to the Single Market, then how much of our financial operations will move to EU countries?

I'm assuming you're happy to go to WTO tariff rates?

People keep saying this, and I have no idea why. WTO tariffs are not given, and they are not the default option. We had this discussion already.

From the top dog at WTO;

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-wto-i...

reuters said:

That would mean renegotiating the terms of trade with 161 WTO members, and losing the low-tariff or tariff-free access to 58 countries covered by 36 EU trade agreements.

"Pretty much all of the UK’s trade [with the world] would somehow have to be negotiated," Azevedo said.

“It is extremely difficult and complex to negotiate these trade agreements. And slow as well,” he said. “Even if you are in a position to negotiate quickly with all these other members it doesn’t mean that they will be in a position to negotiate with you because they have their own priorities.

[Blue62]

Some sectors will he hit harder than others, the food industry (which is our biggest manufacturer) is in a mini crisis, as I understand it all of their regulations are drawn up by the EU so there's a mountain of work to be done to untangle it, much of their labour comes from within the EU and a weakening pound will push up the cost of imported raw materials.

There will be winners from all of this, but at this point in time the only obvious economic implications seem to be negative.

Politically, I like the fact that the establishment have had a slap and that the divide between the north and south has been so starkly illustrated, perhaps now our politicians will do something about regenerating large parts of the UK that have been left to rot.

[RYH64E]

Blue62 said:

Politically, I like the fact that the establishment have had a slap and that the divide between the north and south has been so starkly illustrated, perhaps now our politicians will do something about regenerating large parts of the UK that have been left to rot.

Hopefully they'll sort out the Brexit mess this afternoon, regenerate run down areas of the UK tomorrow, leaving the rest of the week to concentrate on poverty, the Middle East crisis and bringing about world peace.

I hope that a leadership election, plummeting pound, looming recession and falling tax receipts don't prove too much of a distraction...

[ou sont les biscuits]

Blue62 said:

Politically, I like the fact that the establishment have had a slap and that the divide between the north and south has been so starkly illustrated, perhaps now our politicians will do something about regenerating large parts of the UK that have been left to rot.

TBH, I can only see that divide getting worse, if as predicted the City of London loses businesses and jobs. What's going to make up the missing revenue that contributes so much to the economy at the moment?

[cirian75]

Seems that Boris and Farage had no idea the true implications of what they were fighting to make happen.


Or if they did someone else would sort out the mess

[Blue62]

RYH64E said:

Hopefully they'll sort out the Brexit mess this afternoon, regenerate run down areas of the UK tomorrow, leaving the rest of the week to concentrate on poverty, the Middle East crisis and bringing about world peace.

I hope that a leadership election, plummeting pound, looming recession and falling tax receipts don't prove too much of a distraction...

You forgot to mention the housing crisis! I don't expect much to change, but large swathes of the UK have been ignored for many years and it has come back to bite in this referendum, many of those people voted leave as a protest and though it's less likely they will get off their backsides in a general election, the main parties need to take note.

[RYH64E]

cirian75 said:

Seems that Boris and Farage had no idea the true implications of what they were fighting to make happen.


Or if they did someone else would sort out the mess

Many didn't care about the consequences, they just wanted out.

[Jockman]

Blue62 said:

Politically, I like the fact that the establishment have had a slap and that the divide between the north and south has been so starkly illustrated, perhaps now our politicians will do something about regenerating large parts of the UK that have been left to rot.

Ironically, wasn't that what the EU Funding was doing?

(waits to be hammered)

[cirian75]

Jockman said:

Blue62 said:

Politically, I like the fact that the establishment have had a slap and that the divide between the north and south has been so starkly illustrated, perhaps now our politicians will do something about regenerating large parts of the UK that have been left to rot.

Ironically, wasn't that what the EU Funding was doing?

(waits to be hammered)

Frozen sausages in your front lawn?

[Fastdruid]

xjay1337 said:

The UK signed up to be part of a common trade area, not a self-centered European single-policy multi-nation state.

Er. I think you should read up on the History of the EU, that's *exactly* what we signed up for.

[wl606]

RYH64E said:

I've just come off the phone after talking to the people who do my currency transactions, they're strongly recommending buying USD forward at current rates of 1.31, they think therre will be steady falls and once we break through the 1.30 level the falls will accelerate. They're expecting low growth (if any), more QE and interest rate cuts (as hinted at by the BofE). I'm ok until the end of August as I bought forward just before the referendum, but at their predicted levels of 1.15 (GBP/USD) there will be tough times ahead for importers, and as a country we import an awful lot of product.

Importer of USA made items I deal with has already put prices up.

[ou sont les biscuits]

wl606 said:

RYH64E said:

I've just come off the phone after talking to the people who do my currency transactions, they're strongly recommending buying USD forward at current rates of 1.31, they think therre will be steady falls and once we break through the 1.30 level the falls will accelerate. They're expecting low growth (if any), more QE and interest rate cuts (as hinted at by the BofE). I'm ok until the end of August as I bought forward just before the referendum, but at their predicted levels of 1.15 (GBP/USD) there will be tough times ahead for importers, and as a country we import an awful lot of product.

Importer of USA made items I deal with has already put prices up.

I think my plan to buy a Mustang won't be viable with a 9 month waiting list, not to mention the petrol to put in it

[mph]

Fastdruid said:

xjay1337 said:

The UK signed up to be part of a common trade area, not a self-centered European single-policy multi-nation state.

Er. I think you should read up on the History of the EU, that's *exactly* what we signed up for.

What the British people were told they were signing up to and the actuality are two different things.

Let Edward Heath who took us into Europe clarify what we voted for.

“There are some in this country who fear that in going into Europe we shall in some way sacrifice independence and sovereignty. These fears, I need hardly say, are completely unjustified.”

[Terminator X]

mph said:

Fastdruid said:

xjay1337 said:

The UK signed up to be part of a common trade area, not a self-centered European single-policy multi-nation state.

Er. I think you should read up on the History of the EU, that's *exactly* what we signed up for.

What the British people were told they were signing up to and the actuality are two different things.

Let Edward Heath who took us into Europe clarify what we voted for.

“There are some in this country who fear that in going into Europe we shall in some way sacrifice independence and sovereignty. These fears, I need hardly say, are completely unjustified.”

Steady on it's just the leave camp that are bullstters after all.

TX.