Brexit - real world implications

[don4l]

robemcdonald said:

With respect to all. There are enough threads with people arguing the toss over the rights and wrongs of the situation. I really wanted to hear first or second hand accounts of the PH massive.
I don't think it's necessary to call BS or argue with people's anecdotes. My expectation was there would be enough good and bad to provide balance without the usual rhetoric from both sides.
It would be nice if we could all be respectful of what others have to say.

With respect, sod all has changed since the referendum.

We haven't left the EU.

We haven't even handed in our notice yet.

House prices have not collapsed.

[robemcdonald]

don4l said:

With respect, sod all has changed since the referendum.

We haven't left the EU.

We haven't even handed in our notice yet.

House prices have not collapsed.

What exactly are you so upset about? From what you have posted I guess you voted out. You should be happy.
Brexit won. We are going to leave the EU. Celebrate. Please don't try to derail every thread on PH you disagree with.

[Don]

London property market going bonkers as wealthy individuals from around the world try to cash in on the low exchange rate...

...they still want to come here? So they do it would appear...

[ofcorsa]

cirian75 said:

The current Government was firmly behind Bremain. It made no sense for them to publish plans for what a post exit Britain would look like. I would have thought behind doors they would have plans in place post referendum to ease the uncertainty. Not doing that seems grossly irresponsible to me.

[Derek Smith]

don4l said:

With respect, sod all has changed since the referendum.

We haven't left the EU.

We haven't even handed in our notice yet.

House prices have not collapsed.

It reminds me of the old joke of the bloke jumping off Beachy Head. Half way down he thinks to himself: 'What's all the fuss about? It is quite a pleasant sensa . . .'

[terry tibbs]

NRS said:

CR6ZZ said:

Here in NZ many of us belong to Kiwisaver - a sort of government subsidised pension scheme. Because some to the fund is tied up with stocks and shares, anything with a connection to the FTSE has lost ground. Overall result is that folk have lost a bit of their planned pension. Not usually very much - appears to range from a few dollars up to a few thousand, depending on which fund one is tied to and how much one has in there. I appreciate that the loss is likely no more than one might expect on the share market, so not the end of the world, but for some it could be money they can ill afford to miss out on.

Have you looked at the share charts and compared it to the last 5 years? It's not a very big move (so far) overall. It makes great headlines to say it lost 7% in one day, but if you don't monitor the markets it means very little when you don't know what can be "normal" and where things are now. If your pension was in shares you have lost far more at the start of the year for "no" reason than you have now (depending on how good the fund manager is). Plus you should not be heavily invested in shares if you're getting close to taking your pension out.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE&t=...

this

it also makes superb graphics when you fix your graph scale to make the loss look cataclysmic, set at a scale over a number of years and its barely noticeable and looks like a margin of error move, still makes headlines in the daily wail and sky news and filled a few hours last Friday morning for "experts" to pontificate over.

[Europa1]

cirian75 said:

Shame whoever hit the meme generator can't spell.

[FredClogs]

terry tibbs said:

this

it also makes superb graphics when you fix your graph scale to make the loss look cataclysmic, set at a scale over a number of years and its barely noticeable and looks like a margin of error move, still makes headlines in the daily wail and sky news and filled a few hours last Friday morning for "experts" to pontificate over.

Errr.. Not really. If you look at the wider picture of course details become less visible, bit the ftse 100 and 250 took huge, almost unprecedented short term losses, what we don't yet know is whether they will represent a trajectory or not. We just don't know, but the argument that the markets have had a macro rise over 5 or 10 years so don't worry about small scale major losses is pretty disingenuous at best, the truth is there is more uncertainty now as to the value of the markets going forward than there was this time last week.

[lostkiwi]

terry tibbs said:

NRS said:

CR6ZZ said:

Here in NZ many of us belong to Kiwisaver - a sort of government subsidised pension scheme. Because some to the fund is tied up with stocks and shares, anything with a connection to the FTSE has lost ground. Overall result is that folk have lost a bit of their planned pension. Not usually very much - appears to range from a few dollars up to a few thousand, depending on which fund one is tied to and how much one has in there. I appreciate that the loss is likely no more than one might expect on the share market, so not the end of the world, but for some it could be money they can ill afford to miss out on.

Have you looked at the share charts and compared it to the last 5 years? It's not a very big move (so far) overall. It makes great headlines to say it lost 7% in one day, but if you don't monitor the markets it means very little when you don't know what can be "normal" and where things are now. If your pension was in shares you have lost far more at the start of the year for "no" reason than you have now (depending on how good the fund manager is). Plus you should not be heavily invested in shares if you're getting close to taking your pension out.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE&t=...

this

it also makes superb graphics when you fix your graph scale to make the loss look cataclysmic, set at a scale over a number of years and its barely noticeable and looks like a margin of error move, still makes headlines in the daily wail and sky news and filled a few hours last Friday morning for "experts" to pontificate over.

What we have seen so far is the reaction of the markets to a 'desire' to exit the EU. When Article 50 is invoked it becomes much more real. Thats when we can expect to see the big changes expected with a second hit possible at the time the UK actually leaves the EU two years later (and if could be quicker if an agreement is worked out).

[don4l]

lostkiwi said:

cymtriks said:

We are seeing the remainers in their true colours

• Insults
• Threats
• Arrogance beyond belief
• Total denial
• No talk of what the EU needs to be in the future to tempt us back
• No talk of what the EU needs to be in the future to stop other countries leaving

We are also seeing our government in its true colours

• No plan for a very likely outcome
• Mass resignations all around
• No clear leadership
• Prime Minister going
• Opposition in chaos

When you see the extent of the rot you realise how urgently the boat needed to be rocked.

Seriously?
You must be reading different threads to me.
A Brexit supporters only tonight implied I leave and take the rest of the moaners with me (which as an immigrant is offensive).
There were several others who had similar suggestions made to them.
Since when is the answer to anyone who disagrees with a point of view to get them to leave the country. It might have been popular back in 1939 with some folks but hopefully we've progressed a bit since then.

vonuber just suggested that I bugger off back to Ireland.

However, I didn't find it in the least bit offensive. It was bloody hilarious.

It is also quite funny that you bring up 1939.

The people have just expressed their democratic choice and you don't want to accept it because... Hitler???

I need an Aspirin.

[vonuber]

don4l said:

vonuber just suggested that I bugger off back to Ireland.

Actually I didn't though did I.
My point was that if you are an irish citizen and it all goes tits up you can always just go back there. Others don't have that luxury.

Hence why Belfast postoffice ran out of passport application forms.

[Tuna]

FredClogs said:

Errr.. Not really. If you look at the wider picture of course details become less visible, bit the ftse 100 and 250 took huge, almost unprecedented short term losses, what we don't yet know is whether they will represent a trajectory or not. We just don't know, but the argument that the markets have had a macro rise over 5 or 10 years so don't worry about small scale major losses is pretty disingenuous at best, the truth is there is more uncertainty now as to the value of the markets going forward than there was this time last week.

It depends on which agenda you wish to push. People are using the losses to confirm their beliefs that this is a long term trend, rather than considering the underlying strengths or weaknesses of the market. You might argue that the historical trend is confirmation that the market is essentially strong.

Edited by Tuna on Wednesday 29th June 11:09

[Podie]

Don said:

London property market going bonkers as wealthy individuals from around the world try to cash in on the low exchange rate...

...they still want to come here? So they do it would appear...

Yep, somewhat ironic isn't it?

[don4l]

robemcdonald said:

don4l said:

With respect, sod all has changed since the referendum.

We haven't left the EU.

We haven't even handed in our notice yet.

House prices have not collapsed.

What exactly are you so upset about? From what you have posted I guess you voted out. You should be happy.
Brexit won. We are going to leave the EU. Celebrate. Please don't try to derail every thread on PH you disagree with.

I'm not trying to derail the thread.

I'm simply pointing out that the world hasn't come to an end.

House prices have not collapsed, and unemployment continues to fall. Petrol is still cheaper than it was a year ago. The stock market is up, as is the pound.

And yet, there is a section of society who are doing everything that they can to talk down confidence.

They are desperate to see their predictions of doom come true.

I was listening to the BBC yesterday evening. They were saying that the stock market recovery was a "dead cat bounce". The market had fallen so far that buyers were snapping up bargains. It wouldn't last.

Guess what, the market is up again today, by 2.5% as I write this.

[kurt535]

Mr Tidy said:

CR6ZZ said:

Here in NZ many of us belong to Kiwisaver - a sort of government subsidised pension scheme. Because some to the fund is tied up with stocks and shares, anything with a connection to the FTSE has lost ground. Overall result is that folk have lost a bit of their planned pension. Not usually very much - appears to range from a few dollars up to a few thousand, depending on which fund one is tied to and how much one has in there. I appreciate that the loss is likely no more than one might expect on the share market, so not the end of the world, but for some it could be money they can ill afford to miss out on.

Sorry, I must have missed something - when was NZ ever in the EU?

Your post suggests that anything tied to the FTSE has lost ground, but surely anything connected with the Fortune 500 would make up for that?

markets to watch are bonds and fx...ftse side show atm.

[Podie]

don4l said:

I was listening to the BBC yesterday evening. They were saying that the stock market recovery was a "dead cat bounce". The market had fallen so far that buyers were snapping up bargains. It wouldn't last.

Guess what, the market is up again today, by 2.5% as I write this.

A "dead cat bounce" is a small, brief recovery.

[munky]

Don said:

London property market going bonkers as wealthy individuals from around the world try to cash in on the low exchange rate...

...they still want to come here? So they do it would appear...

And your proof of that is where? Perhaps in the collapse in property co share prices, like Foxtons (very much London-focussed) after they released a profit warning due to Brexit?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4fcdc8ca-3c35-11e6-8716-...

Or, anecdotally, how my brother-in-law can't sell his house as all interest disappeared following the vote.

A lot of the attraction of London to wealthy internationals was its multi-cultural, forward and outward looking inhabitants and economy? Sadly, the rest of Little England just showed that it's backwards, racist, remarkably under-educated and inward looking. For the first time, I'd support London's independence from the dis-united Kingdom. No longer proud to be British, not that Britain will remain Britain much longer once Scotland leaves.

[Podie]

munky said:

Don said:

London property market going bonkers as wealthy individuals from around the world try to cash in on the low exchange rate...

...they still want to come here? So they do it would appear...

And your proof of that is where? Perhaps in the collapse in property co share prices, like Foxtons (very much London-focussed) after they released a profit warning due to Brexit?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4fcdc8ca-3c35-11e6-8716-...

Or, anecdotally, how my brother-in-law can't sell his house as all interest disappeared following the vote.

A lot of the attraction of London to wealthy internationals was its multi-cultural, forward and outward looking inhabitants and economy? Sadly, the rest of Little England just showed that it's backwards, racist, remarkably under-educated and inward looking. For the first time, I'd support London's independence from the dis-united Kingdom. No longer proud to be British, not that Britain will remain Britain much longer once Scotland leaves.

It was reported in a few places yesterday.

A quick Google finds this - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/lo...

At the moment, if you have an argument, there is an article for and one against...

[Hosenbugler]

munky said:

A lot of the attraction of London to wealthy internationals was its multi-cultural, forward and outward looking inhabitants and economy? Sadly, the rest of Little England just showed that it's backwards, racist, remarkably under-educated and inward looking. For the first time, I'd support London's independence from the dis-united Kingdom. No longer proud to be British,

Ridiculous, precious, hysterical nonsense.

ETA. Add Pompous to that.

[FredClogs]

Tuna said:

FredClogs said:

Errr.. Not really. If you look at the wider picture of course details become less visible, bit the ftse 100 and 250 took huge, almost unprecedented short term losses, what we don't yet know is whether they will represent a trajectory or not. We just don't know, but the argument that the markets have had a macro rise over 5 or 10 years so don't worry about small scale major losses is pretty disingenuous at best, the truth is there is more uncertainty now as to the value of the markets going forward than there was this time last week.

It depends on which agenda you wish to push. People are using the losses to confirm their beliefs that this is a long term trend, rather than considering the underlying strengths or weaknesses of the market. You might argue that the historical trend is confirmation that the market is essentially strong.

Edited by Tuna on Wednesday 29th June 11:09

I don't really have an agenda to push and I'd agree in general it's fair to assume that the best medium to long term indicator is the historical medium to long term performance. But what I'm saying is you can't assume or assure that, and 5 years isn't that long really... The FTSE250 is 11% down YTD... That's a lot to recover even in the medium term. We don't know if we're on a blip or a trajectory, that's all we know, as yet we don't know.

And if you really want to talk long term, have a look at the FTSE over 25 or 30 years... Have a look, it's by no means long term linear growth. 1999 to 2004 saw 5 years of linear steady declines in both index prices. There is absolutely no reason why that won't happen again.