Brexit - real world implications
Discussion
Podie said:
It was reported in a few places yesterday.
A quick Google finds this - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/lo...
At the moment, if you have an argument, there is an article for and one against...
Thanks, and that may pan out to be true, but I can't help think that it's just estate agents talking the talk in order to attract buyers and limit the damage.. and it's free advertising for them to get a mention in the paper. There's no proof yet, no actual transaction. As there wouldn't be, it's too early.A quick Google finds this - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/lo...
At the moment, if you have an argument, there is an article for and one against...
I do think though that the house builder shares are oversold, so have bought a few in the last couple of days. Whatever way you look at it, the UK is still short of housing.
FredClogs said:
Errr.. Not really. If you look at the wider picture of course details become less visible, bit the ftse 100 and 250 took huge, almost unprecedented short term losses, what we don't yet know is whether they will represent a trajectory or not. We just don't know, but the argument that the markets have had a macro rise over 5 or 10 years so don't worry about small scale major losses is pretty disingenuous at best, the truth is there is more uncertainty now as to the value of the markets going forward than there was this time last week.
lostkiwi said:
What we have seen so far is the reaction of the markets to a 'desire' to exit the EU. When Article 50 is invoked it becomes much more real. Thats when we can expect to see the big changes expected with a second hit possible at the time the UK actually leaves the EU two years later (and if could be quicker if an agreement is worked out).
We are pretty much back to the average of the Thursday before we left now. Part of that may be a result of overbuying in a rising market (i.e. the bounce off the bottom goes higher than where it will settle more longer term). But it looks like either the market doesn't believe Brexit will happen (in a completely destructive way) or that the market doesn't believe it will have as big an impact as predicted.The bigger short term effect is the currency impact, and that has some winners and losers (no idea of overall impact on the country in terms of winning or losing).
NRS said:
FredClogs said:
Errr.. Not really. If you look at the wider picture of course details become less visible, bit the ftse 100 and 250 took huge, almost unprecedented short term losses, what we don't yet know is whether they will represent a trajectory or not. We just don't know, but the argument that the markets have had a macro rise over 5 or 10 years so don't worry about small scale major losses is pretty disingenuous at best, the truth is there is more uncertainty now as to the value of the markets going forward than there was this time last week.
lostkiwi said:
What we have seen so far is the reaction of the markets to a 'desire' to exit the EU. When Article 50 is invoked it becomes much more real. Thats when we can expect to see the big changes expected with a second hit possible at the time the UK actually leaves the EU two years later (and if could be quicker if an agreement is worked out).
We are pretty much back to the average of the Thursday before we left now. Part of that may be a result of overbuying in a rising market (i.e. the bounce off the bottom goes higher than where it will settle more longer term). But it looks like either the market doesn't believe Brexit will happen (in a completely destructive way) or that the market doesn't believe it will have as big an impact as predicted.The bigger short term effect is the currency impact, and that has some winners and losers (no idea of overall impact on the country in terms of winning or losing).
boxxob said:
munky said:
And your proof of that is where? Perhaps in the collapse in property co share prices, like Foxtons (very much London-focussed) after they released a profit warning due to Brexit?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4fcdc8ca-3c35-11e6-8716-...
Or, anecdotally, how my brother-in-law can't sell his house as all interest disappeared following the vote.
A lot of the attraction of London to wealthy internationals was its multi-cultural, forward and outward looking inhabitants and economy? Sadly, the rest of Little England just showed that it's backwards, racist, remarkably under-educated and inward looking. For the first time, I'd support London's independence from the dis-united Kingdom. No longer proud to be British, not that Britain will remain Britain much longer once Scotland leaves.
Oh, give it a rest. Are you sure that the real story is not that your BIL is unable to sell his house, but that he cannot sell at the massively inflated prices that he would prefer?http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4fcdc8ca-3c35-11e6-8716-...
Or, anecdotally, how my brother-in-law can't sell his house as all interest disappeared following the vote.
A lot of the attraction of London to wealthy internationals was its multi-cultural, forward and outward looking inhabitants and economy? Sadly, the rest of Little England just showed that it's backwards, racist, remarkably under-educated and inward looking. For the first time, I'd support London's independence from the dis-united Kingdom. No longer proud to be British, not that Britain will remain Britain much longer once Scotland leaves.
boxxob said:
So all these rich ME, Asians, Chinese and Russians are coming for the multi-cultural aspect? Not so they can stuff (dubiously acquired?) cash in to property investments via offshore firms, and have the social and cultural amenities playground to revel in?
They come for varied reasons, but Chinese and Russian money was already drying up due to the Chinese economic slowdown + corruption crackdown and Russian sanctions. A small price cut due to the pound isn't going to reverse those things. Estate agents I've spoken to say that only the Greek money is still there, which they're worried will disappear due to Brexit as they don't know yet what the ramifications will be.Hosenbugler said:
munky said:
A lot of the attraction of London to wealthy internationals was its multi-cultural, forward and outward looking inhabitants and economy? Sadly, the rest of Little England just showed that it's backwards, racist, remarkably under-educated and inward looking. For the first time, I'd support London's independence from the dis-united Kingdom. No longer proud to be British,
Ridiculous, precious, hysterical nonsense. ETA. Add Pompous to that.
Real world implications is the thread title, ok I have put together a few.
The world's most respected economics newspaper has this to say. Even the URL tells you a lot.
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21701265-how...
We will have an unelected PM. Our credit rating has been cut.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36644934
We, and our children, will no longer have the right to work and live in Europe. The Brexiters have cut back the opportunities for the next generation. Overwhelmingly, the elderly with the least time to live voted out, whereas overwhelmingly the young with the longest to live with the decision, voted Remain.
The Leave campaigners admit they lied. Gullible people believed the lies. For example, the £350m a week nonsense.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendu...
Many Brexit voters regret their ignorance of the facts: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brex...
Spain wants Gibraltar back. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36618796
Scotland wants out of the UK and this time will likely get it. Businesses responded to a IOD survey saying that a quarter of them will freeze hiring as a result of the vote, 5% will cut, and two thirds say it's negative for their business.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36636574
Then there's Vodafone, the first of many: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36656039
Pensions: company pension deficits have just increased, due to the reduction in the long term interest rates by which pension funds must discount their liabilities, in turn due to investors taking fright and switching from equities and corporate bonds into the relative safety of gilts. It remains to be seen whether this is a persistent or short term effect. Hymans Robertson, a consultancy, estimated that Friday’s bond-yield dip raised the collective corporate deficit by £80 billion ($106 billion), ten times Britain’s annual contribution to the EU. Further falls will only increase the bill.
Cornwall and Wales have realised that they face a huge reduction in their budget as they were large recipients of EU cash, and have inisted that the rest of the UK foot the bill to maintain the lost funding, even though they voted to leave; the turkeys actually voted for Christmas. Tough.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/bre...
What else. So, France no longer wants to host UK border controls on their side, so the immigrants will find it much easier to get across and claim asylum. I find that the most amusing; immigration was a big part of the Brexiters' reason for leaving, and yet asylum claims will increase. The Polish immigrants will stay, because they've been here a long time and after 3 years they can apply for citizenship, which they will.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36626553
Racist attacks, both verbal and physical, have increased. Including against non-EU victims, many of them British citizens that happen to be non-white (highlights the stupidity) often accompanied by shouts of "we voted you out". There is a worrying indication of a rise in far-right support, just like happened in Germany in the 1930s. We know where that led to, and the EU came into being to unite Europe and prevent that happening in the future. The Brexit vote has just made that likelihood increase again. Well done.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/manches...
The Brexiters think that we will still get access to the single market, except that to do so it still needs to pay the fees, and still needs to follow all the rules without having a say in what those rules are.
The UK is now a laughing stock, for example here's a quote by German MP and ally of Merkel, Michael Fuchs: With a chuckle, he made it clear things were going to have to change. "Either you are in a club or you are out of a club. If you are in a club you have to follow the rules. If you are out of the club, there will be different rules," he said.
Asked if it would be possible for the UK to retain access to the single market, he replied: "It will be possible, of course, but not for free.
"You have to see with Norway, with Switzerland, you have to pay a certain fee. And the per capita fee of Norway is exactly the same as what Britain is now paying into the EU. So there won't be any savings."
Finally, think about who recommended leaving, and who recommended staying, which really says all there needs to be said:
Stay: Barrack Obama, 8 former US treasury secretaries, the vast majority of large businesses, the IMF, the OECD, the CBI, respected economists.
Leave: Marine Le Pen, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21701264-bri...
Finally, I'll leave you with the typical exit voters in the Midlands on June 24th (page: BBC Midlands Today) https://www.facebook.com/midlandstoday/videos/1015...
Proud?
The world's most respected economics newspaper has this to say. Even the URL tells you a lot.
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21701265-how...
We will have an unelected PM. Our credit rating has been cut.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36644934
We, and our children, will no longer have the right to work and live in Europe. The Brexiters have cut back the opportunities for the next generation. Overwhelmingly, the elderly with the least time to live voted out, whereas overwhelmingly the young with the longest to live with the decision, voted Remain.
The Leave campaigners admit they lied. Gullible people believed the lies. For example, the £350m a week nonsense.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendu...
Many Brexit voters regret their ignorance of the facts: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brex...
Spain wants Gibraltar back. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36618796
Scotland wants out of the UK and this time will likely get it. Businesses responded to a IOD survey saying that a quarter of them will freeze hiring as a result of the vote, 5% will cut, and two thirds say it's negative for their business.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36636574
Then there's Vodafone, the first of many: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36656039
Pensions: company pension deficits have just increased, due to the reduction in the long term interest rates by which pension funds must discount their liabilities, in turn due to investors taking fright and switching from equities and corporate bonds into the relative safety of gilts. It remains to be seen whether this is a persistent or short term effect. Hymans Robertson, a consultancy, estimated that Friday’s bond-yield dip raised the collective corporate deficit by £80 billion ($106 billion), ten times Britain’s annual contribution to the EU. Further falls will only increase the bill.
Cornwall and Wales have realised that they face a huge reduction in their budget as they were large recipients of EU cash, and have inisted that the rest of the UK foot the bill to maintain the lost funding, even though they voted to leave; the turkeys actually voted for Christmas. Tough.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/bre...
What else. So, France no longer wants to host UK border controls on their side, so the immigrants will find it much easier to get across and claim asylum. I find that the most amusing; immigration was a big part of the Brexiters' reason for leaving, and yet asylum claims will increase. The Polish immigrants will stay, because they've been here a long time and after 3 years they can apply for citizenship, which they will.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36626553
Racist attacks, both verbal and physical, have increased. Including against non-EU victims, many of them British citizens that happen to be non-white (highlights the stupidity) often accompanied by shouts of "we voted you out". There is a worrying indication of a rise in far-right support, just like happened in Germany in the 1930s. We know where that led to, and the EU came into being to unite Europe and prevent that happening in the future. The Brexit vote has just made that likelihood increase again. Well done.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/manches...
The Brexiters think that we will still get access to the single market, except that to do so it still needs to pay the fees, and still needs to follow all the rules without having a say in what those rules are.
The UK is now a laughing stock, for example here's a quote by German MP and ally of Merkel, Michael Fuchs: With a chuckle, he made it clear things were going to have to change. "Either you are in a club or you are out of a club. If you are in a club you have to follow the rules. If you are out of the club, there will be different rules," he said.
Asked if it would be possible for the UK to retain access to the single market, he replied: "It will be possible, of course, but not for free.
"You have to see with Norway, with Switzerland, you have to pay a certain fee. And the per capita fee of Norway is exactly the same as what Britain is now paying into the EU. So there won't be any savings."
Finally, think about who recommended leaving, and who recommended staying, which really says all there needs to be said:
Stay: Barrack Obama, 8 former US treasury secretaries, the vast majority of large businesses, the IMF, the OECD, the CBI, respected economists.
Leave: Marine Le Pen, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21701264-bri...
Finally, I'll leave you with the typical exit voters in the Midlands on June 24th (page: BBC Midlands Today) https://www.facebook.com/midlandstoday/videos/1015...
Proud?
king on!boxxob said:
Look at the rise is London prices over the last five years -and the wealth gap- and you do wonder if it was sustainable regardless of if Brexit is a/the turning point. Short-term uncertainty was inevitable, especially with the dire predictions heaped upon the consequences of leaving.
Indeed, and I actually think that a house price correction would be a very good thing, even if the catalyst is not. But the assertion that London's property market is going "bonkers" is, at the moment, just a lot of hot air from estate agents.munky said:
Podie said:
I thought the Le Touquet agreement was a bilateral agreement between the UK and Frnace, and not part of the EU?
It is, but France indicated that would seek to exit the agreement if we left the EU. It remains to be seen whether they carry it out.s2art said:
munky said:
Podie said:
I thought the Le Touquet agreement was a bilateral agreement between the UK and Frnace, and not part of the EU?
It is, but France indicated that would seek to exit the agreement if we left the EU. It remains to be seen whether they carry it out.
Sorry forgot one: very strong chance of higher food prices due to the drop in sterling (much of our food is imported), and the shortage of casual labour for UK farms.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-35...
Much like fuel prices, it doesn't happen the next day. It takes time to take effect, especially as we're still in the EU for another couple of years.
And there's this gem of an article from Feb, about the voters. The BBC copied it, and ran it the day after the vote.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21693223-bri...
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-35...
Much like fuel prices, it doesn't happen the next day. It takes time to take effect, especially as we're still in the EU for another couple of years.
And there's this gem of an article from Feb, about the voters. The BBC copied it, and ran it the day after the vote.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21693223-bri...
Jader1973 said:
Back to the original topic.
My brother gets paid in USD so he has had a pay rise.
On the other hand, his Polish born (but now a British citizen) wife is wondering where to emigrate to.
In the UK? How does he spend his $'s here?! Bit early to contemplate emigration imho, perhaps give it a few more days.My brother gets paid in USD so he has had a pay rise.
On the other hand, his Polish born (but now a British citizen) wife is wondering where to emigrate to.
TX.
lostkiwi said:
Seriously?
You must be reading different threads to me.
A Brexit supporters only tonight implied I leave and take the rest of the moaners with me (which as an immigrant is offensive).
There were several others who had similar suggestions made to them.
Since when is the answer to anyone who disagrees with a point of view to get them to leave the country. It might have been popular back in 1939 with some folks but hopefully we've progressed a bit since then.
It is probably because you crop up on every damn post to do with Brexit whining and whining and whining. Give it a rest.You must be reading different threads to me.
A Brexit supporters only tonight implied I leave and take the rest of the moaners with me (which as an immigrant is offensive).
There were several others who had similar suggestions made to them.
Since when is the answer to anyone who disagrees with a point of view to get them to leave the country. It might have been popular back in 1939 with some folks but hopefully we've progressed a bit since then.
munky said:
Real world implications is the thread title, ok I have put together a few.
The world's most respected economics newspaper has this to say. Even the URL tells you a lot.
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21701265-how...
We will have an unelected PM. Our credit rating has been cut.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36644934
We, and our children, will no longer have the right to work and live in Europe. The Brexiters have cut back the opportunities for the next generation. Overwhelmingly, the elderly with the least time to live voted out, whereas overwhelmingly the young with the longest to live with the decision, voted Remain.
The Leave campaigners admit they lied. Gullible people believed the lies. For example, the £350m a week nonsense.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendu...
Many Brexit voters regret their ignorance of the facts: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brex...
Spain wants Gibraltar back. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36618796
Scotland wants out of the UK and this time will likely get it. Businesses responded to a IOD survey saying that a quarter of them will freeze hiring as a result of the vote, 5% will cut, and two thirds say it's negative for their business.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36636574
Then there's Vodafone, the first of many: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36656039
Pensions: company pension deficits have just increased, due to the reduction in the long term interest rates by which pension funds must discount their liabilities, in turn due to investors taking fright and switching from equities and corporate bonds into the relative safety of gilts. It remains to be seen whether this is a persistent or short term effect. Hymans Robertson, a consultancy, estimated that Friday’s bond-yield dip raised the collective corporate deficit by £80 billion ($106 billion), ten times Britain’s annual contribution to the EU. Further falls will only increase the bill.
Cornwall and Wales have realised that they face a huge reduction in their budget as they were large recipients of EU cash, and have inisted that the rest of the UK foot the bill to maintain the lost funding, even though they voted to leave; the turkeys actually voted for Christmas. Tough.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/bre...
What else. So, France no longer wants to host UK border controls on their side, so the immigrants will find it much easier to get across and claim asylum. I find that the most amusing; immigration was a big part of the Brexiters' reason for leaving, and yet asylum claims will increase. The Polish immigrants will stay, because they've been here a long time and after 3 years they can apply for citizenship, which they will.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36626553
Racist attacks, both verbal and physical, have increased. Including against non-EU victims, many of them British citizens that happen to be non-white (highlights the stupidity) often accompanied by shouts of "we voted you out". There is a worrying indication of a rise in far-right support, just like happened in Germany in the 1930s. We know where that led to, and the EU came into being to unite Europe and prevent that happening in the future. The Brexit vote has just made that likelihood increase again. Well done.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/manches...
The Brexiters think that we will still get access to the single market, except that to do so it still needs to pay the fees, and still needs to follow all the rules without having a say in what those rules are.
The UK is now a laughing stock, for example here's a quote by German MP and ally of Merkel, Michael Fuchs: With a chuckle, he made it clear things were going to have to change. "Either you are in a club or you are out of a club. If you are in a club you have to follow the rules. If you are out of the club, there will be different rules," he said.
Asked if it would be possible for the UK to retain access to the single market, he replied: "It will be possible, of course, but not for free.
"You have to see with Norway, with Switzerland, you have to pay a certain fee. And the per capita fee of Norway is exactly the same as what Britain is now paying into the EU. So there won't be any savings."
Finally, think about who recommended leaving, and who recommended staying, which really says all there needs to be said:
Stay: Barrack Obama, 8 former US treasury secretaries, the vast majority of large businesses, the IMF, the OECD, the CBI, respected economists.
Leave: Marine Le Pen, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21701264-bri...
Finally, I'll leave you with the typical exit voters in the Midlands on June 24th (page: BBC Midlands Today) https://www.facebook.com/midlandstoday/videos/1015...
Proud?
"So that's all good then!"The world's most respected economics newspaper has this to say. Even the URL tells you a lot.
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21701265-how...
We will have an unelected PM. Our credit rating has been cut.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36644934
We, and our children, will no longer have the right to work and live in Europe. The Brexiters have cut back the opportunities for the next generation. Overwhelmingly, the elderly with the least time to live voted out, whereas overwhelmingly the young with the longest to live with the decision, voted Remain.
The Leave campaigners admit they lied. Gullible people believed the lies. For example, the £350m a week nonsense.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendu...
Many Brexit voters regret their ignorance of the facts: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brex...
Spain wants Gibraltar back. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36618796
Scotland wants out of the UK and this time will likely get it. Businesses responded to a IOD survey saying that a quarter of them will freeze hiring as a result of the vote, 5% will cut, and two thirds say it's negative for their business.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36636574
Then there's Vodafone, the first of many: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36656039
Pensions: company pension deficits have just increased, due to the reduction in the long term interest rates by which pension funds must discount their liabilities, in turn due to investors taking fright and switching from equities and corporate bonds into the relative safety of gilts. It remains to be seen whether this is a persistent or short term effect. Hymans Robertson, a consultancy, estimated that Friday’s bond-yield dip raised the collective corporate deficit by £80 billion ($106 billion), ten times Britain’s annual contribution to the EU. Further falls will only increase the bill.
Cornwall and Wales have realised that they face a huge reduction in their budget as they were large recipients of EU cash, and have inisted that the rest of the UK foot the bill to maintain the lost funding, even though they voted to leave; the turkeys actually voted for Christmas. Tough.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/bre...
What else. So, France no longer wants to host UK border controls on their side, so the immigrants will find it much easier to get across and claim asylum. I find that the most amusing; immigration was a big part of the Brexiters' reason for leaving, and yet asylum claims will increase. The Polish immigrants will stay, because they've been here a long time and after 3 years they can apply for citizenship, which they will.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36626553
Racist attacks, both verbal and physical, have increased. Including against non-EU victims, many of them British citizens that happen to be non-white (highlights the stupidity) often accompanied by shouts of "we voted you out". There is a worrying indication of a rise in far-right support, just like happened in Germany in the 1930s. We know where that led to, and the EU came into being to unite Europe and prevent that happening in the future. The Brexit vote has just made that likelihood increase again. Well done.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/manches...
The Brexiters think that we will still get access to the single market, except that to do so it still needs to pay the fees, and still needs to follow all the rules without having a say in what those rules are.
The UK is now a laughing stock, for example here's a quote by German MP and ally of Merkel, Michael Fuchs: With a chuckle, he made it clear things were going to have to change. "Either you are in a club or you are out of a club. If you are in a club you have to follow the rules. If you are out of the club, there will be different rules," he said.
Asked if it would be possible for the UK to retain access to the single market, he replied: "It will be possible, of course, but not for free.
"You have to see with Norway, with Switzerland, you have to pay a certain fee. And the per capita fee of Norway is exactly the same as what Britain is now paying into the EU. So there won't be any savings."
Finally, think about who recommended leaving, and who recommended staying, which really says all there needs to be said:
Stay: Barrack Obama, 8 former US treasury secretaries, the vast majority of large businesses, the IMF, the OECD, the CBI, respected economists.
Leave: Marine Le Pen, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21701264-bri...
Finally, I'll leave you with the typical exit voters in the Midlands on June 24th (page: BBC Midlands Today) https://www.facebook.com/midlandstoday/videos/1015...
Proud?
munky said:
Real world implications is the thread title, ok I have put together a few.
...
Proud?
Most of what you put was not actual consequences, but more conjecture based on no solid information....
Proud?
The Vodaphone link - they're 'considering moving' - means they're planning to negotiate incentives to stay, like any multinational.
Scotland leaving - Sturgeon is 'thinking about it' - it would be a suicidal move and possibly not even legally possible, not least because Scotland doesn't meet the criteria set by the EU.
..
Project Fear was called that for a reason you know?
I'm not proud of the people who are so determined to look for a reason that they are right, that they will trot out any damaging rumour they can find.
I'm not proud that having been given a challenge, a portion of this population is utterly unwilling to try and make a difference.
I'm not proud that after the country voted for self-determination, some people have don't seem to understand that they now have the chance to shape the society we want.
I'm not proud that people on both sides believe that immigration = racism
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