How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
EddieSteadyGo said:
My prediction of how the negotiations will go is as follows.
We know that the EU Parliament and the EU commission will want the UK to incur some degree of financial damage in order to discourage other members from leaving.
We also know that there are disparate interests within the EU member states which affects their predisposition to dealing constructively with the UK.
And we also know the freedom of movement is one of their four founding principles of the EU whereas this is likely to be a red line for the UK government.
If we could persuade other member states that it was in their own benefit to adapt the freedom of movement, everything would be much easier.
However, I think this is as about as likely as persuading american politicians on the need for gun control. It is one of those things which seems obvious to us, but really it just shows we don't understand their perspective.
And for these reasons, the two year timeframe for negotiations won't be long enough to reach a proper consensus.
As such, I think we should be prepared to move onto WTO rules initially as the basis for the exit. Then, in the medium term, tariffs and access to the single market would be gradually improved over time.
This would serve as a sufficient deterrent to other EU members leaving. It would also preserve the EU's principles. And it would give trade opportunities in the longer term.
I would imagine this type of arrangement would have the most significant effect on the car industry and financial services (with the often talked about problem of passporting).
Hence it might be possible to see a deal with has the WTO rules as the basis of an agreement, but with a provision for these two sectors specifically.
This would make sense on the basis of the trade imbalance between the UK and the EU.
Those are exactly my thoughts.We know that the EU Parliament and the EU commission will want the UK to incur some degree of financial damage in order to discourage other members from leaving.
We also know that there are disparate interests within the EU member states which affects their predisposition to dealing constructively with the UK.
And we also know the freedom of movement is one of their four founding principles of the EU whereas this is likely to be a red line for the UK government.
If we could persuade other member states that it was in their own benefit to adapt the freedom of movement, everything would be much easier.
However, I think this is as about as likely as persuading american politicians on the need for gun control. It is one of those things which seems obvious to us, but really it just shows we don't understand their perspective.
And for these reasons, the two year timeframe for negotiations won't be long enough to reach a proper consensus.
As such, I think we should be prepared to move onto WTO rules initially as the basis for the exit. Then, in the medium term, tariffs and access to the single market would be gradually improved over time.
This would serve as a sufficient deterrent to other EU members leaving. It would also preserve the EU's principles. And it would give trade opportunities in the longer term.
I would imagine this type of arrangement would have the most significant effect on the car industry and financial services (with the often talked about problem of passporting).
Hence it might be possible to see a deal with has the WTO rules as the basis of an agreement, but with a provision for these two sectors specifically.
This would make sense on the basis of the trade imbalance between the UK and the EU.
The big problem is the loss of financial passporting. That will seriously hurt the UK economy.
The biggest issue we have regarding Brexit is time.
If there are posters who believe that negotiations will be straight forward and timely can they explain how come we have reached deadlock at the first fence, with British politicians, from both the Remain and Leave camps, insist they will not invoke Article 50 until they know what the deal will look like and EU leaders are saying they won’t start negotiating until the UK invokes Article 50?
How the negotiations will go depends on who is leading the Conservative party, and who they appoint to lead the negotiations.
Boris did a great job in the debates, but I don't think that he is the person to get the best deal.
Gove would do a better job.
Andrea Leadsom, I think, would get the best deal.
Junker and Tusk need to resign before any negotiations start.
We won't get a good deal unless we accept that the WTO option would be perfectly acceptable.
Boris did a great job in the debates, but I don't think that he is the person to get the best deal.
Gove would do a better job.
Andrea Leadsom, I think, would get the best deal.
Junker and Tusk need to resign before any negotiations start.
We won't get a good deal unless we accept that the WTO option would be perfectly acceptable.
Fittster said:
If there are posters who believe that negotiations will be straight forward and timely can they explain how come we have reached deadlock at the first fence, with British politicians, from both the Remain and Leave camps, insist they will not invoke Article 50 until they know what the deal will look like and EU leaders are saying they won’t start negotiating until the UK invokes Article 50?
The EU leaders say there will be no negotiations until Article 50 is triggered, then immediately start setting out what would be acceptable / unacceptable. EG No free market access without free movement of people. If there are to be no negotiations they should remain silent.It's all posturing for the cameras. We should trigger Article 50, and then say nothing for a couple of weeks. No request for trade deals. See who blinks first
New Zealanders keen as mustard by sound of things
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/684800/EU-referen...
Snippets like this help reinforce my long held view that we are entering a period of great opportunity. Free of the bureaucratic EU shackles.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/684800/EU-referen...
Snippets like this help reinforce my long held view that we are entering a period of great opportunity. Free of the bureaucratic EU shackles.
RYH64E said:
rscott said:
The UK would pay tariffs on goods and services it exported into the EU...
Once again, you do not pay tariffs on goods you export you pay tariffs on goods you import. Tariffs would make our products more expensive for our customers in the EU to buy and hence less competitive against domestic manufacturers. Then there's the issue of no-tariff barriers such as customs clearance and compliance with various EU regulations.If people can't grasp this basic, fundamental point how on earth can they be relied upon to take a complex decision about, for instance, membership of the EU...
lostkiwi said:
Continental trade with us in not as important to them as it is to us.
Look at the figures as a percentage of exports and imports. As for your argument about all the German vehicles on the roads they know full well we will still buy them no matter what.
From a negotiation perspective we are in a weak position. We need them more than they need us. They have all the cards regarding what is on the table and they can use the deadline against us.
Article 50 is designed to give the EU the stronger hand.
Any agreement MUST be ratified by the ENTIRE remaining 27 states. That's democracy. Merkel can be told what to do but it's not her decision. Essentially we are negotiating with 27 countries in a single agreement. How hard is it to get 27 people out of 27 to agree to something? It's not going to be easy and we have the harder task.
Point of order - by the time any Article 50 outcome is tabled, QMV applies as per Lisbon. So it's 20 nations, of combined population of 60%. The Eastern nations are spitting blood at the recently announced further integration plans, Greece and Italy are both begging for dosh in breach of Lisbon so will do as they're told by Germany. Spain may prove tricky due to Gib, but their population is fairly small as a percentage. Look at the figures as a percentage of exports and imports. As for your argument about all the German vehicles on the roads they know full well we will still buy them no matter what.
From a negotiation perspective we are in a weak position. We need them more than they need us. They have all the cards regarding what is on the table and they can use the deadline against us.
Article 50 is designed to give the EU the stronger hand.
Any agreement MUST be ratified by the ENTIRE remaining 27 states. That's democracy. Merkel can be told what to do but it's not her decision. Essentially we are negotiating with 27 countries in a single agreement. How hard is it to get 27 people out of 27 to agree to something? It's not going to be easy and we have the harder task.
Life is a lot easier than suggested - why do you think the directly elected top dogs are all being a lot more pragmatic (no red lines, no need to rush), and the Eurocrats are the ones trying to be bombastic when they have zero control over our actions, and few cards to play.
Hosenbugler said:
New Zealanders keen as mustard by sound of things
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/684800/EU-referen...
Snippets like this help reinforce my long held view that we are entering a period of great opportunity. Free of the bureaucratic EU shackles.
Excellent, New Zealand. Wonder what the cost of that will be? Maybe all the British sheep farmers should be looking for new jobs. http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/684800/EU-referen...
Snippets like this help reinforce my long held view that we are entering a period of great opportunity. Free of the bureaucratic EU shackles.
rdjohn said:
Meanwhile an army of Civil Servants will be frantically working on the minutia of the details involved in changing direction and modelling the effects of umpteen scenarios.
Well, hardly an army, they've had their numbers slashed in the last 6 years. Poor sods will be steaming out the ears trying to do their job.jonnyb said:
I sincerely hope financial passporting will be a red line for us, over and above free movement of people.
A £66bn hole in the public finances will not be easy to make up under current circumstances.
Because of course every single penny of the financial services business in the UK is reliant entirely on EU passporting... A £66bn hole in the public finances will not be easy to make up under current circumstances.
Come off it. Using numbers like that is as ridiculous as the £350M a week.
don4l said:
How the negotiations will go depends on who is leading the Conservative party, and who they appoint to lead the negotiations.
Boris did a great job in the debates, but I don't think that he is the person to get the best deal.
Gove would do a better job.
Andrea Leadsom, I think, would get the best deal.
Junker and Tusk need to resign before any negotiations start.
We won't get a good deal unless we accept that the WTO option would be perfectly acceptable.
Surely Boris is exactly the right man for the job.Boris did a great job in the debates, but I don't think that he is the person to get the best deal.
Gove would do a better job.
Andrea Leadsom, I think, would get the best deal.
Junker and Tusk need to resign before any negotiations start.
We won't get a good deal unless we accept that the WTO option would be perfectly acceptable.
He could just talk out of his arse and tell lies to get what he wants.
Hosenbugler said:
New Zealanders keen as mustard by sound of things
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/684800/EU-referen...
Snippets like this help reinforce my long held view that we are entering a period of great opportunity. Free of the bureaucratic EU shackles.
I've just read that we don't actually have any trade negotiators.http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/684800/EU-referen...
Snippets like this help reinforce my long held view that we are entering a period of great opportunity. Free of the bureaucratic EU shackles.
I suspect that we will have to choose who we try to do deals with.
So, do we prioritise the EU?
Or do we try to do deals with the growing economies of the world?
I don't see the point of trying to do a deal with people who don't appear to actually like us. Tusk and Junker made their feelings clear yesterday. Let's just take them at their word.
rscott said:
RYH64E said:
rscott said:
The UK would pay tariffs on goods and services it exported into the EU...
Once again, you do not pay tariffs on goods you export you pay tariffs on goods you import. Tariffs would make our products more expensive for our customers in the EU to buy and hence less competitive against domestic manufacturers. Then there's the issue of no-tariff barriers such as customs clearance and compliance with various EU regulations.If people can't grasp this basic, fundamental point how on earth can they be relied upon to take a complex decision about, for instance, membership of the EU...
don4l said:
How the negotiations will go depends on who is leading the Conservative party, and who they appoint to lead the negotiations.
Boris did a great job in the debates, but I don't think that he is the person to get the best deal.
Gove would do a better job.
Andrea Leadsom, I think, would get the best deal.
Junker and Tusk need to resign before any negotiations start.
We won't get a good deal unless we accept that the WTO option would be perfectly acceptable.
IMO they need Owen Patterson in there. I'd actually like him to chuck his hat in the ring for PM. Boris did a great job in the debates, but I don't think that he is the person to get the best deal.
Gove would do a better job.
Andrea Leadsom, I think, would get the best deal.
Junker and Tusk need to resign before any negotiations start.
We won't get a good deal unless we accept that the WTO option would be perfectly acceptable.
jonnyb said:
Hosenbugler said:
New Zealanders keen as mustard by sound of things
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/684800/EU-referen...
Snippets like this help reinforce my long held view that we are entering a period of great opportunity. Free of the bureaucratic EU shackles.
Excellent, New Zealand. Wonder what the cost of that will be? Maybe all the British sheep farmers should be looking for new jobs. http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/684800/EU-referen...
Snippets like this help reinforce my long held view that we are entering a period of great opportunity. Free of the bureaucratic EU shackles.
PurpleMoonlight said:
The two year deadline to agree terms can be extended if all the remaining member states agree, and it will be in their interest to do so
I expect it to take five years, during which we will continue to contribute to their coffers.
I don't see why it should take more than 6 months.I expect it to take five years, during which we will continue to contribute to their coffers.
We need to stop subsidising the rest of Europe as soon as possible.
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