How do we think EU negotiations will go?

[oyster]

trickywoo said:

lostkiwi said:

Any agreement must be unanimously approved. It only takes one dissent to veto any agreement.

How is it bad that we are out of such a system? The costs, assuming there are any, will be well worth paying.

This answer I see a a lot.

I can only presume you aren't in an industry that may be affected?

[Murph7355]

Missed this as am not looking at all the Brexit threads these days - depressing to see how this country is managing to tear itself up at the moment. Hopefully it will slap itself around the face and stop talking itself down soon. However...

jjlynn27 said:

So, and help me out here, I promise you I'm not being flippant; in a factory make 10 gadgets an hour instead of 9, if you are architect create better DR procuderes, lawyers do better/more contracts?

If that's the case, I think most people that I know already work very hard at their jobs and do their best. Hence my confusion with this 'getting down and working hard'.

It may mean those things. More likely it will mean working hard to diversify who you sell to so that you are less dependent on the EU for business. With the relative performance of global economies, businesses would have been wise to have been doing this for a while. But when there's the vision of a cash cow on your doorstep I can appreciate why people may not have.

That said, anecdotal evidence of us "working hard" is arguably belied a little by our GDP per capita figures, depending on which metric you choose.

jjlynn27 said:

Getting business elsewhere will not depend on 'getting on with things'. I'm sure you know that. It will depend on legal/political frameworks, money and perceived stability.

Producing the best product at the right price point, IMO, will always be the only things that really, really matter at the end of the day. Yes, there'll be exceptions and other influencers etc...but you deliver the best product/service and I firmly believe that will win out.

jjlynn27 said:

...There needs to be reinforced message of calm and stability.

Agree with this. But calmness and stability are not engendered by anyone rushing.

I wish Cameron hadn't resigned as he did. But he did. Now we must ensure the right leader comes through, and hope they structure the exit sensibly.

Meanwhile we should have senior people doing their own cold calling of key organisations and businesses

[BlackLabel]

And we're off.....


"The European Union and Britain on Monday start formal talks to separate after 44 years of UK membership, with Prime Minister Theresa May entering negotiations in a position weakened by her country's recent general election.

Brexit Secretary David Davis and the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier kick off talks in Brussels on Monday that will set the terms on which Britain walks away from the bloc and determine its relationship with the continent for generations to come."

http://m.france24.com/en/20170619-brexit-eu-negoti...

[Digga]

oyster said:

trickywoo said:

lostkiwi said:

Any agreement must be unanimously approved. It only takes one dissent to veto any agreement.

How is it bad that we are out of such a system? The costs, assuming there are any, will be well worth paying.

This answer I see a a lot.

I can only presume you aren't in an industry that may be affected?

This is a platitude I see a lot.

Do tell me who operates in an industry that will not be affected? And what does that have to do with the intent of Brexit anyway? It is happening.

[Dr Jekyll]

///ajd said:

StevieBee said:

The EU currently funds numerous development projects around the world in low and middle income regions. Some in Europe and some in key strategic locations for the EU elsewhere in the world. These cover things such as transport, hospitals, schools, highways, waste management and other social development projects.

These projects all have two distinct phases: Development and Implementation. Implementation draws money from donor institutions such as the World Bank to fund construction and the tenders for these construction projects go first to EU based companies. Only if no suitable EU company can be found do these tenders go global. The value of these projects is often vast and requires consortium bids but again, the aim is for those consortiums to comprise EU companies.

Being outside of the EU, UK companies would thus no longer get first dibs on these tenders and if they did go global, those UK companies would then have to compete against similar companies from Korea, China, etc' who can do just a good a job but for considerably less money. So, we'd simply not be able to compete.

The UK negotiations would thus need to argue that having contributed to the development of these projects over the past years, we should be included in the first round tender opportunities for several years yet, with this tapering off in time.

I am currently working on three such projects (at development stages), all via German project leadership. One is about to move to implementation stage with a budget over two years of something like $200m. My German clients said that politically, it would be unlikely that any UK company would be selected as politically, questions would be asked at home as to why a company from the UK which has chosen to leave the EU has been selected over one comparable from another country that hasn't.

The solution is for those UK companies to relocate to Europe - but this can't simply be opening an office somewhere, you have to pay the majority of corporate tax to the country in which you are HQ'ed so the UK would end up loosing considerable tax revenue.

This will be a difficult one to negotiate.

The more of these stories you hear, the more the absolute stupity of brexit hits home.

Come on May, save the UK.

Keep spinning the brexit is brexit little falsehood. After all, its fashionable to lie your arse off to win votes these days - if its good enough to secure a brexit vote, its fair play to kick it into touch.

The more of these stories you hear, the more it hits home that the EU is a protectionist racket and any believer in free trade should want to escape it.

[jjlynn27]

You guys are aware that you are quoting year old posts?

[KrissKross]

jjlynn27 said:

You guys are aware that you are quoting year old posts?

Probably be doing the same in 10 years from now whilst the rest of us get on with business as usual.

[///ajd]

How did the "row of the summer" go today?

What? Steely eyed Davis capitulated after 5 minutes? Oh dear, what a surrender muppet, doesn't he love his country? I thought he was a patriot? Rule Britannia? I thought he was going to stick it to the EU, show them what for, whine on about how Germans need to sell us cars and they'd be begging to do a trade deal?

"Non - nous parlez about the grand foooking bill first Monsieur Davis!"

"D'accord mon ami, trois sacs complet!"

--

It looks like we will get a running commentary - probably from the EU - whether Davis & co like it or not.

I don't like the way Barnier says "UK can have a good deal, but we're making no concessions". Hmm.

I fear his definition of a good deal will be rather far from the sunny uplands promised by the govt brexiteers.

[anonymous-user]

First meeting went as well as you could hope for ///ajd

https://youtu.be/wIS8s22QN-E?t=16m1s

We are out of the CU and SM, clear as clear can be.

[anonymous-user]

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

Which bit of there is no deal until everything is agreed don't you understand?

[crankedup]

Wine lovers in the EU will be begging us for our wonderful international award winning white wines!! All the more for us

[Digga]

crankedup said:

Wine lovers in the EU will be begging us for our wonderful international award winning white wines!! All the more for us

Never tried Nye Timber then?

[Robertj21a]

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

What silly comments. Have you been out in the heat rather a lot today ?

[///ajd]

jsf said:

First meeting went as well as you could hope for ///ajd

https://youtu.be/wIS8s22QN-E?t=16m1s

We are out of the CU and SM, clear as clear can be.

Interesting that you think that was something to celebrate. Davis looks exactly what he is - out on a limb, isolated, with a feeble mandate and pathetic strategy. But yay! We're leaving the CU and SM! Pop the corks!

I see they are insisting on doing their bit in French, and Barnier said quite clearly "we'll move on to that trade stuff Davis wants when he has made progress on citizens rights etc.". I.e. the EU will decide the pace and agenda.

This could get crunchy quite quickly.

[anonymous-user]

///ajd said:

jsf said:

First meeting went as well as you could hope for ///ajd

https://youtu.be/wIS8s22QN-E?t=16m1s

We are out of the CU and SM, clear as clear can be.

Interesting that you think that was something to celebrate. Davis looks exactly what he is - out on a limb, isolated, with a feeble mandate and pathetic strategy. But yay! We're leaving the CU and SM! Pop the corks!

I see they are insisting on doing their bit in French, and Barnier said quite clearly "we'll move on to that trade stuff Davis wants when he has made progress on citizens rights etc.". I.e. the EU will decide the pace and agenda.

This could get crunchy quite quickly.

It is something to celebrate, as it means we will be leaving the EU in a way that allows us to get the benefits from such a move. Staying in either would be a disaster for a free trade based economy.

So, do you finally accept we are leaving the CU and SM and we have put that one to bed?

Why wouldn't he use French? He is French. What language he uses doesn't matter, unless you think the EU must always use English in their press briefings for some bizarre reason. He also spoke in English when he felt it appropriate, or did you filter that out?

[Robertj21a]

///ajd said:

Interesting that you think that was something to celebrate. Davis looks exactly what he is - out on a limb, isolated, with a feeble mandate and pathetic strategy. But yay! We're leaving the CU and SM! Pop the corks!

I see they are insisting on doing their bit in French, and Barnier said quite clearly "we'll move on to that trade stuff Davis wants when he has made progress on citizens rights etc.". I.e. the EU will decide the pace and agenda.

This could get crunchy quite quickly.

Of course it's something to celebrate !

It's the first part of the next stage in removing ourselves from control by others.

[anonymous-user]

The £50 billion divorce bill.Could we just print the money & be done with it?
Small change compared to QE after all
''The UK created £375bn ($550bn) of new money in its QE programme between 2009 and 2012''

[mickthemechanic]

Will we be informed of the outcome of negotiations as they are done. Or will we find out everything at the end?

[anonymous-user]

///ajd said:

Barnier said quite clearly "we'll move on to that trade stuff Davis wants when he has made progress on citizens rights etc.". I.e. the EU will decide the pace and agenda.

Which is step 1 to fking your counterpart.

But at least we will have sovereignty. Yah.

[Murph7355]

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

They did last June despite everything. So we shouldn't rule it out now

///ajd said:

Interesting that you think that was something to celebrate. Davis looks exactly what he is - out on a limb, isolated, with a feeble mandate and pathetic strategy. But yay! We're leaving the CU and SM! Pop the corks!

I see they are insisting on doing their bit in French, and Barnier said quite clearly "we'll move on to that trade stuff Davis wants when he has made progress on citizens rights etc.". I.e. the EU will decide the pace and agenda.

This could get crunchy quite quickly.

You and I evidently watch different programmes

I thought he was much more crisp and calm (especially when the idiot Brit reporter asked Barnier what chance he thought there was of dealing with Davis in future - just the sort of rubbish our media need to reel in).

Barnier started out more conciliatory and ended up bringing emotion into it (I suspect not on his own behalf but some of those he is working for). That said, the translators were rubbish so an amount of meaning is likely to have been lost.

As for the timetable...all the things the EU have noted are things we need to get sorted anyway. Indeed we wanted to sort the citizens thing earlier than they did. The order of play doesn't really matter as long as everything gets signed up to at the same time (give or take the ink drying time). Barnier's comment is, IMO, a softening of their position where originally the EU had said they wouldn't even start trade talks until the exit settlement was complete. Davis was clear that the two are intertwined. The UK govt MUST stick to that position. The payment the EU want is one of our strongest cards. And the more ridiculous they make the number, the stronger that card is.

Jimboka said:

The £50 billion divorce bill.Could we just print the money & be done with it?
Small change compared to QE after all
''The UK created £375bn ($550bn) of new money in its QE programme between 2009 and 2012''

Yes we could - I think stongle on here was advocating that, and when the number was around that mark just to pay it right now.

My view is that there's lots of water to go under the bridge yet. That number will likely reduce and/or will secure additional concessions. I'd pay it at the last minute, noting all the time that the payment will be with them within a day of any agreement

mickthemechanic said:

Will we be informed of the outcome of negotiations as they are done. Or will we find out everything at the end?

Both mentioned they'll release details as they are progressed. I'd probably expect a weekly formal briefing like the one in the link plus additional ones as material progress is made.

Barnier knows he won't be able to gag Juncker. And Davis is probably very wary of the press in this country. So the approach makes some sense. Will be tough for both of them IMO, and won't stop the press (and ///ajd , just pulling your chain) making stuff up.