How do we think EU negotiations will go?

How do we think EU negotiations will go?

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anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
I suppose if the options are:
1) Free market access with free movement and a fee like Norway
2) No trade deal and restrictions on movement

There could be another option:
3) Free market access with restrictions on movement but with a whacking great big membership fee (i.e way more than we pay now)

It'd give the UK freedom to restrict migration if it wanted, plus the free market access it craves but at such a high cost that other countries wouldn't be able to afford it or to act as a deterrant to others leaving? Also injecting cash into the EU/Eurozone over and above the amount we currently pay and getting zero back might help the EU in some ways?

Perhaps a bit pie in the sky-but hey-anything is possible!

nyxster

1,452 posts

170 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
The French and Germans have been looking for any reason to stick it to the city for years to give Paris and Frankfurt their business. Hollander has already dismissed the idea that London should be allowed to do euro clearing so if anything I think the EU will bring the hammer down hard on financial services as political revenge for the UK's co Nathan's blocking on bankers bonuses and other socialist ideology things.

People act like they are rational actors: thatcher always pointed out socialists would sooner set fire to their wallet and starve than let someone profit from selling them a meal.


anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
I think we should look at Switzerland, they refused to accept the free movement of people, the EU told them to vote again. If they still refuse the response may give an indication of how the EU will react to our impending negotiation.


vonuber

17,868 posts

164 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
nyxster said:
People act like they are rational actors: thatcher always pointed out socialists would sooner set fire to their wallet and starve than let someone profit from selling them a meal.
I'm not sure you could describe Merkel as a socialist.

Einion Yrth

19,575 posts

243 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
gottans said:
I think we should look at Switzerland, they refused to accept the free movement of people, the EU told them to vote again. If they still refuse the response may give an indication of how the EU will react to our impending negotiation.
Switzerland and the UK telling them to go fck themselves with their ridiculous protection racket at pretty much the same time?


PositronicRay

26,952 posts

182 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
steveT350C said:
dazwalsh said:
The financial services passportings is a bit of a biggie, how likely are we to get a deal on that if we aren't in the EU? I can see a lot of financial institutions heading over the irish sea to Dublin. God knows how many jobs will go.
The Liechtenstein solution...

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=8...
The last I heard Liechtenstein was in Schengen.

Robertj21a

16,475 posts

104 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
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jjlynn27 said:
What you mean like staying in EU until we are sure what we actually want to achieve?

I'm not actually sure if you were serious. If I'm due woosh parrot that's fine too.
No, I was being fairly serious. The ball is in our court, we shouldn't be afraid to use that to our very best advantage [tennis puns not deliberate !]
I'm not suggesting any ridiculous timescale, just that we don't commit to submitting the papers until we feel that we are ready. I'm guessing that they'll blink first as there are 27 of them, all with various issues that they will want to progress urgently. Nobody likes uncertainty, particularly if it's drawn out with no specific end date - we should use that frustration on their part to lever getting some initial negotiations started.
If we don't now commit to any specific date, and also don't commit to a specific date in, say, another month's time then I'm sure some of those 27 will put pressure on other EU members to at least help us with whatever is causing our delay (even if it is really to start a bit of negotiating).

Murph7355

37,648 posts

255 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
jjlynn27 said:
Murph,

You mention this 'work hard at it' numerous times. What do you mean by that?
I started to write something lengthy, but does working hard at being successful need any explanation?

For those whose businesses currently depend on the EU, it will mean thinking outside of what they have been used to and looking to create new opportunities out of the evolving situation. For those who work for employers materially dependent on the EU, it'll mean not giving anyone an excuse to move that business elsewhere...and being equally flexible if the situation changes.

For everyone else, just more of what they've been doing.

powerstroke

10,283 posts

159 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
lostkiwi said:
s2art said:
lostkiwi said:
Ah yes the ridiculous answer I expected.
Nothing in terms of trade agreements - i.e. WTO and that means tariffs and quotas. So no free trade. No Norway agreement. No Switzerland agreement. No CETA agreement. We are just another country trading on WTO rules.
The BDI has instructed Merkel that there will be no tariff barriers. She vill obey orders!
Much as many believe she is Merkel is not the EU.
Any agreement must be unanimously approved. It only takes one dissent to veto any agreement. Merkel may well do as she is told but how about the other states?

Nothing is guaranteed.
Mr negative !!!!! I can understand why you call yourself lost kiwi!! all the Newzealanders I met when I worked there were proud resorseful people who were proud of their country , please stop running our country down its getting tiresome...

Murph7355

37,648 posts

255 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
lostkiwi said:
There is a precedent of sorts with Greenland/Denmark. Denmark remained but Greenland left. Its a reversal of UK/Scotland but it is still a possibility.
I don't think the reverse position can be used as any sort of a precedent. They're two entirely different sets of circumstances and factors.

I really cannot see the EU wanting to take Scotland or Northern Ireland on board. They wouldn't be able to afford to be net contributors for starters, and the EU budget will have one or two significant holes appearing shortly.

powerstroke

10,283 posts

159 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
I say try saying stuff your political bit, fees a and free movement EU, we will trade on a tariff basis, over to you? your move guys ...... ok 10% ........ fine best ask the german car industy oh ok that sounds better !!!
trade and, jobs , business will always trump petty EU pen pushers ...
...

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
Einion Yrth said:
gottans said:
I think we should look at Switzerland, they refused to accept the free movement of people, the EU told them to vote again. If they still refuse the response may give an indication of how the EU will react to our impending negotiation.
Switzerland and the UK telling them to go fck themselves with their ridiculous protection racket at pretty much the same time?

Never gonna happen, Swiss, at least in my experience are too practical for that. Cool headed and do what's best for them. Head over heart every day of the week.

EnglishTony

2,552 posts

98 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
About the only sure thing is that a significant number of British politicians and civil servants will be getting nice lunches at the tax payers expense while negotiations continue.

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
I started to write something lengthy, but does working hard at being successful need any explanation?

For those whose businesses currently depend on the EU, it will mean thinking outside of what they have been used to and looking to create new opportunities out of the evolving situation. For those who work for employers materially dependent on the EU, it'll mean not giving anyone an excuse to move that business elsewhere...and being equally flexible if the situation changes.

For everyone else, just more of what they've been doing.
So, and help me out here, I promise you I'm not being flippant; in a factory make 10 gadgets an hour instead of 9, if you are architect create better DR procuderes, lawyers do better/more contracts?

If that's the case, I think most people that I know already work very hard at their jobs and do their best. Hence my confusion with this 'getting down and working hard'.

Getting business elsewhere will not depend on 'getting on with things'. I'm sure you know that. It will depend on legal/political frameworks, money and perceived stability. From one of our clients, today we got a call that, and this is unconfirmed, German minister for technology (or equivalent/similar) is actively calling bosses of tech firms in London and seeing if they would consider moving to 'safe' environment of Berlin. And these are the startups working on HFT and machine learning.

Tories need to sort out their act together. There needs to be reinforced message of calm and stability.

Edited by jjlynn27 on Wednesday 29th June 22:49

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
jjlynn27 said:
Greg66 said:
jjlynn27 said:
My hope now is that we get good team of negotiators,
Any ideas where we should start looking?

Perhaps sub-contract the negotiations with the Americans to EU negotiators, and sub-contract the negotiations with the EU to American negotiators...
I wish I could answer that.
It seems NZ have offered to lend us some of their guys.

Burwood

18,709 posts

245 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
lostkiwi said:
trickywoo said:
Even if there are tariffs aren't they only 3% or thereabouts? Sterling is down more than that so our products will still be the same price to sell.

We buy so much from the EU that it isn't in their interest to put us off.

The UK is in a position of strength and should negotiate as such.
The UK is not in a position of strength.
We have a deadline of two years in which to negotiate a deal otherwise we leave with nothing.
The EU has trade agreements all over the world, we have none.
The EU value of exports to us as a percentage of their GDP is far less than ours to them.

They will call the shots. Or just delay till the 2 year period is up.
This point may be covered already but there is no deadline. The 2 years is after article 50 is invoked. We can and will do fk all until we are closer to a deal which we want. That is a fact

powerstroke

10,283 posts

159 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
jjlynn27 said:
Murph7355 said:
I started to write something lengthy, but does working hard at being successful need any explanation?

For those whose businesses currently depend on the EU, it will mean thinking outside of what they have been used to and looking to create new opportunities out of the evolving situation. For those who work for employers materially dependent on the EU, it'll mean not giving anyone an excuse to move that business elsewhere...and being equally flexible if the situation changes.

For everyone else, just more of what they've been doing.
So, and help me out here, I promise you I'm not being flippant; in a factory make 10 gadgets an hour instead of 9, if you are architect create better DR procuderes, lawyers do better/more contracts?

If that's the case, I think most people that I know already work very hard at their jobs and do their best. Hence my confusion with this 'getting down and working hard'.

Getting business elsewhere will not depend on 'getting on with things'. I'm sure you know that. It will depend on legal/political frameworks, money and perceived stability. From one of our clients, today we got a call that, and this is unconfirmed, German minister for technology (or equivalent/similar) is actively calling bosses of tech firms in London and seeing if they would consider moving to 'safe' environment of Berlin. And these are the startups working on HFT and machine learning.

Tories need to sort out their act together. There needs to be reinforced message of calm and stability.

Edited by jjlynn27 on Wednesday 29th June 22:49
Someone better get a grip on the BBC then its been wall to wall doom and to hell in a hand cart every day since the uk leave vote ...

Jockman

17,912 posts

159 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
What % of UK companies have direct dealings with the EU?

anonymous-user

53 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
powerstroke said:
jjlynn27 said:
Murph7355 said:
I started to write something lengthy, but does working hard at being successful need any explanation?

For those whose businesses currently depend on the EU, it will mean thinking outside of what they have been used to and looking to create new opportunities out of the evolving situation. For those who work for employers materially dependent on the EU, it'll mean not giving anyone an excuse to move that business elsewhere...and being equally flexible if the situation changes.

For everyone else, just more of what they've been doing.
So, and help me out here, I promise you I'm not being flippant; in a factory make 10 gadgets an hour instead of 9, if you are architect create better DR procuderes, lawyers do better/more contracts?

If that's the case, I think most people that I know already work very hard at their jobs and do their best. Hence my confusion with this 'getting down and working hard'.

Getting business elsewhere will not depend on 'getting on with things'. I'm sure you know that. It will depend on legal/political frameworks, money and perceived stability. From one of our clients, today we got a call that, and this is unconfirmed, German minister for technology (or equivalent/similar) is actively calling bosses of tech firms in London and seeing if they would consider moving to 'safe' environment of Berlin. And these are the startups working on HFT and machine learning.

Tories need to sort out their act together. There needs to be reinforced message of calm and stability.

Edited by anonymous-user on Wednesday 29th June 22:49
Someone better get a grip on the BBC then its been wall to wall doom and to hell in a hand cart every day since the uk leave vote ...
Yeah, which seems to be pretty fking accurate reporting from the Beeb. And it will get worse before it gets better, so buckle up - you wanted to go on this ride!

Esseesse

8,969 posts

207 months

Wednesday 29th June 2016
quotequote all
cookie118 said:
I suppose if the options are:
1) Free market access with free movement and a fee like Norway
2) No trade deal and restrictions on movement

There could be another option:
3) Free market access with restrictions on movement but with a whacking great big membership fee (i.e way more than we pay now)

It'd give the UK freedom to restrict migration if it wanted, plus the free market access it craves but at such a high cost that other countries wouldn't be able to afford it or to act as a deterrant to others leaving? Also injecting cash into the EU/Eurozone over and above the amount we currently pay and getting zero back might help the EU in some ways?

Perhaps a bit pie in the sky-but hey-anything is possible!
The options are:

1) Free market access with no free movement and no contributions. If anything, if they want free access to the UK market, how much are they going to pay us?
2) WTO option, enjoy the dent in your exports EU.
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