Tory Leadership Election

[Sam All]

jjlynn27 said:

Derek Smith said:

jjlynn27 said:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/745d0ea2-222d-11e6-9d4d-...

Well that's not reassuring, is it?

I thought the WTO would be something of a backstop, with a sort of welcome mat being put our for a country with out size of market.

It seems clear that they don't want us. Why's that?

I did mention this, and apparently Liberia with their micro economy took 7 years to negotiate trade deals. But Davies says that he can raise £2B on tariffs from cars alone. Unsure of mathematics on that one. It's almost as if he thinks that WTO will have to say yes for us to immediately trade on those terms. If I understood correctly what bloke from WTO was saying, all countries already members have to agree to that, 162 of them. Took China and Russia 14/20 years so have no idea how'll this pan out.

Britain has a bright future, or else all the doom/gloom merchants would have left.

[s2art]

jjlynn27 said:

Derek Smith said:

jjlynn27 said:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/745d0ea2-222d-11e6-9d4d-...

Well that's not reassuring, is it?

I thought the WTO would be something of a backstop, with a sort of welcome mat being put our for a country with out size of market.

It seems clear that they don't want us. Why's that?

I did mention this, and apparently Liberia with their micro economy took 7 years to negotiate trade deals. But Davies says that he can raise £2B on tariffs from cars alone. Unsure of mathematics on that one. It's almost as if he thinks that WTO will have to say yes for us to immediately trade on those terms. If I understood correctly what bloke from WTO was saying, all countries already members have to agree to that, 162 of them. Took China and Russia 14/20 years so have no idea how'll this pan out.

Dont get this. The UK is already a member of the WTO.

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/u...

[Derek Smith]

jjlynn27 said:

Derek Smith said:

jjlynn27 said:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/745d0ea2-222d-11e6-9d4d-...

Well that's not reassuring, is it?

I thought the WTO would be something of a backstop, with a sort of welcome mat being put our for a country with out size of market.

It seems clear that they don't want us. Why's that?

I did mention this, and apparently Liberia with their micro economy took 7 years to negotiate trade deals. But Davies says that he can raise £2B on tariffs from cars alone. Unsure of mathematics on that one. It's almost as if he thinks that WTO will have to say yes for us to immediately trade on those terms. If I understood correctly what bloke from WTO was saying, all countries already members have to agree to that, 162 of them. Took China and Russia 14/20 years so have no idea how'll this pan out.

If China and Russia took that long . . .

So we are not in a strong position with the EU negotiations. We can't have separate trade deals with every country.

[jjlynn27]

s2art said:

jjlynn27 said:

Derek Smith said:

jjlynn27 said:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/745d0ea2-222d-11e6-9d4d-...

Well that's not reassuring, is it?

I thought the WTO would be something of a backstop, with a sort of welcome mat being put our for a country with out size of market.

It seems clear that they don't want us. Why's that?

I did mention this, and apparently Liberia with their micro economy took 7 years to negotiate trade deals. But Davies says that he can raise £2B on tariffs from cars alone. Unsure of mathematics on that one. It's almost as if he thinks that WTO will have to say yes for us to immediately trade on those terms. If I understood correctly what bloke from WTO was saying, all countries already members have to agree to that, 162 of them. Took China and Russia 14/20 years so have no idea how'll this pan out.

Dont get this. The UK is already a member of the WTO.

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/u...

The wto guy clearly thinks that UK is member of WTO as a part of EU. Not in it's own right. Did you read the link?

My money is that WTO guy knows what he's talking about more than s2art. But we've been there before.

Or maybe he's part of the 'project fear' too.

ETA : maybe slightly better explanation.

https://next.ft.com/content/5741129a-4510-11e6-b22...

Edited by jjlynn27 on Thursday 14th July 20:24

[M4cruiser]

Just realised the next Budget will be run by Hammond and May - will Clarkson be Mr Deputy Speaker?

Wish I could claim I was the first to think of this, but Clarkson beat me to it (on Google).

[grumbledoak]

jjlynn27 said:

The wto guy clearly thinks that UK is member of WTO as a part of EU. Not in it's own right. Did you read the link?

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/united_kingdom_e.htm

It is quite clear. You are wrong. Just as you were wrong with the last link explaining this. The UK is a member, as is the EU in it's own right, remember?

[s2art]

jjlynn27 said:

s2art said:

jjlynn27 said:

Derek Smith said:

jjlynn27 said:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/745d0ea2-222d-11e6-9d4d-...

Well that's not reassuring, is it?

I thought the WTO would be something of a backstop, with a sort of welcome mat being put our for a country with out size of market.

It seems clear that they don't want us. Why's that?

I did mention this, and apparently Liberia with their micro economy took 7 years to negotiate trade deals. But Davies says that he can raise £2B on tariffs from cars alone. Unsure of mathematics on that one. It's almost as if he thinks that WTO will have to say yes for us to immediately trade on those terms. If I understood correctly what bloke from WTO was saying, all countries already members have to agree to that, 162 of them. Took China and Russia 14/20 years so have no idea how'll this pan out.

Dont get this. The UK is already a member of the WTO.

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/u...

The wto guy clearly thinks that UK is member of WTO as a part of EU. Not in it's own right. Did you read the link?

My money is that WTO guy knows what he's talking about more than s2art. But we've been there before.

Or maybe he's part of the 'project fear' too.

ETA : maybe slightly better explanation.

https://next.ft.com/content/5741129a-4510-11e6-b22...

Edited by jjlynn27 on Thursday 14th July 20:24

Link firewalled. Other sources disagree with Roberto Azevêdo. We will find out who is right shortly. The WTO thinks the UK is a member of the WTO in its own right. Or is their website wrong?

[loafer123]

We are a founding member of the WTO. The interview with the head referred to the fact that we would revert to WTO tariffs unless we negotiated new trade deals, not that we needed to negotiate our entry to the WTO.

If I were cynical, I would suggest that the FT wilfully misunderstood...they do seem to be increasingly odd in their reporting stance.

[jjlynn27]

Link says that 'EU is member in it's own right'. Not UK.

link said:

All EU member States are WTO members, as is the EU (until 30 November 2009 known officially in the WTO as the European Communities for legal reasons) in its own right.

loafer123, we've been through that, your previous explanation was bad translation. I do hope that reason prevails and we get agreement on access single market, rather than go and find out WTO deal.

That second FT link has someone else from WTO saying pretty much the same thing. That deal is, of course, very possible, but that it will not be quick and will take years.

ETA: quote

Edited by jjlynn27 on Thursday 14th July 21:10

[s2art]

jjlynn27 said:

Link says that 'EU is member in it's own right'. Not UK.

Nope. The UK is a member. So is some entity called the EU. Both are members in their own right (so there are 29 members from the EU). Check out the WTO website or see my link from earlier.

[anonymous-user]

jjlynn27 said:

Link says that 'EU is member in it's own right'. Not UK.

this thread just keeps on giving

[wc98]

Derek Smith said:

What we don't want to do is be in the vanguard. We've got a strong economy so risks are, well risky.

It would be nice to think that there is the chance of worldwide barrier-free trading, but that won't happen. Can you imagine the USA complying? Come to that, nor would this country's leaders want that?

Too much vested interests.

our dear leaders did not want brexit either . if the rest of the world goes free trade i doubt the states would have much choice.i may be wrong but i think the time when the population of the uk meekly follows the government line might be coming to a close.

[brenflys777]

s2art said:

jjlynn27 said:

Link says that 'EU is member in it's own right'. Not UK.

Nope. The UK is a member. So is some entity called the EU. Both are members in their own right (so there are 29 members from the EU). Check out the WTO website or see my link from earlier.

If the UK is not a distinct member in its own right - when did the UK cease to hold a seat? Was it another case of integration without popular consent or is this the EU trying to assume control without authority?

[s2art]

brenflys777 said:

s2art said:

jjlynn27 said:

Link says that 'EU is member in it's own right'. Not UK.

Nope. The UK is a member. So is some entity called the EU. Both are members in their own right (so there are 29 members from the EU). Check out the WTO website or see my link from earlier.

If the UK is not a distinct member in its own right - when did the UK cease to hold a seat? Was it another case of integration without popular consent or is this the EU trying to assume control without authority?

The WTO website lists the UK as a member in its own right. I guess they should know.

[jjlynn27]

Am I not doing this right?

From s2art's link

non bold part removed said:

All EU member States are WTO members, as is the EU in its own right.

According to the WTO guy, EU member States are members of WTO, as part of EU. Group membership if you like. The existing deals would not apply in case of brexit.

From the article

ft said:

But in an interview with the Financial Times, Roberto Azevêdo signalled this would not be straightforward. He said a British exit from the EU would lead to unprecedented negotiations between the UK and the Geneva-based institution’s 161 other members.

Britain joined the WTO under the auspices of the EU and its terms of membership have been shaped by two decades of negotiations led by Brussels.

If Britain voted to leave the EU it would not be allowed to simply “cut and paste” those terms, Mr Azevêdo said.
Britain would have to strike a deal on everything from the thousands of tariff lines covering its entire trade portfolio to quotas on agricultural exports, subsidies to British farmers and the access to other markets that banks and other UK services companies now enjoy.

Where is the confusion?

Eta:

same article said:

A WTO analysis had calculated the cost of the additional tariffs on goods imports to British consumers at £9bn, while British merchandise exports would be subject to a further £5.5bn in tariffs at their destination.

“The consumer in the UK will have to pay those duties. The UK is not in a position to decide ‘I’m not charging duties here’. That is impossible. That is illegal,” Mr Azevêdo said.

Edited by jjlynn27 on Friday 15th July 00:01

[don4l]

s2art said:

jjlynn27 said:

Link says that 'EU is member in it's own right'. Not UK.

Nope. The UK is a member. So is some entity called the EU. Both are members in their own right (so there are 29 members from the EU). Check out the WTO website or see my link from earlier.

I looked at the link that you posted and I could not see where it said that the UK was a member.

Would you mind copying and pasting the actual text that says we are a member.


As far as I can see, the only bit that suggests that we are a member, says that we speak through the EU. It doesn't say that we have our own vote.

[Vaud]

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/u...

The United Kingdom has been a WTO member since 1 January 1995 and a member of GATT since 1 January 1948. It is a member State of the European Union (more info). All EU member States are WTO members, as is the EU (until 30 November 2009 known officially in the WTO as the European Communities for legal reasons) in its own right.

The UK has "dual membership"

and voting explained here:

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_...

European Union
The EU is a WTO member in its own right as are each of its 27 member states — making 28 WTO members.
While the member states coordinate their position in Brussels and Geneva, the European Commission alone speaks for the EU at almost all WTO meetings.

For this reason, in most issues WTO mate- rials refer to the EU or the more legally- correct EC.
However, sometimes references are made to the specific member states, particularly where their laws differ. This is the case in some disputes when an EU member’s law or measure is cited, or in notifications of EU member countries’laws, such as in intellectual property (TRIPS). Sometimes individuals’ nationalities are identified, such as for WTO committee chairpersons.

[jjlynn27]

Vaud said:

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/u...

The United Kingdom has been a WTO member since 1 January 1995 and a member of GATT since 1 January 1948. It is a member State of the European Union (more info). All EU member States are WTO members, as is the EU (until 30 November 2009 known officially in the WTO as the European Communities for legal reasons) in its own right.

The UK has "dual membership"

and voting explained here:

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_...

European Union
The EU is a WTO member in its own right as are each of its 27 member states — making 28 WTO members.
While the member states coordinate their position in Brussels and Geneva, the European Commission alone speaks for the EU at almost all WTO meetings.

For this reason, in most issues WTO mate- rials refer to the EU or the more legally- correct EC.
However, sometimes references are made to the specific member states, particularly where their laws differ. This is the case in some disputes when an EU member’s law or measure is cited, or in notifications of EU member countries’laws, such as in intellectual property (TRIPS). Sometimes individuals’ nationalities are identified, such as for WTO committee chairpersons.

They are members. Nobody ever denied that UK is not a member. It is. Through EU. See the bold part. That is what exactly what WTO guy said. Leaving EU doesn't allow UK to default to the same agreements as EU. That is the whole point. Why is this so hard to understand? Seriously, take a step back and try to figure out why is he saying this;
a) he knows what he's talking about and giving informed opinion.
b) peddling project fear.

[Whoozit]

jjlynn27 said:

They are members. Nobody ever denied that UK is not a member. It is. Through EU. See the bold part. That is what exactly what WTO guy said. Leaving EU doesn't allow UK to default to the same agreements as EU. That is the whole point. Why is this so hard to understand? Seriously, take a step back and try to figure out why is he saying this;
a) he knows what he's talking about and giving informed opinion.
b) peddling project fear.

I'm not so sure that "defaulting" to the EU's positions is not possible. Reading solely what you have quoted, yes up til now we have chosen to coordinate with EU. But we are still a member in our own right and the EU's agreements are perforce ours. When we leave the EU, we still have agreements in our own right. No?

Any experts here who can unpick this? Or have we had enough of experts

[jjlynn27]

Whoozit said:

I'm not so sure that "defaulting" to the EU's positions is not possible. Reading solely what you have quoted, yes up til now we have chosen to coordinate with EU. But we are still a member in our own right and the EU's agreements are perforce ours. When we leave the EU, we still have agreements in our own right. No?

Any experts here who can unpick this? Or have we had enough of experts

The whole point is that we don't have agreements in our own rights.

once again FT said:

Britain joined the WTO under the auspices of the EU and its terms of membership have been shaped by two decades of negotiations led by Brussels. If Britain voted to leave the EU it would not be allowed to simply “cut and paste” those terms, Mr Azevêdo said.
Britain would have to strike a deal on everything from the thousands of tariff lines covering its entire trade portfolio to quotas on agricultural exports, subsidies to British farmers and the access to other markets that banks and other UK services companies now enjoy.
“Pretty much all of the UK’s trade [with the world] would somehow have to be negotiated,” he said.

It's not impossible at all, but it seems that consensus is that it would take LONG time.

But, I'll agree with you, it would be good to hear expert or even very informed opinion.