Tory Leadership Election

Poll: Tory Leadership Election

Total Members Polled: 433

BoJo Boris Johnson (Leave): 72
I-Spy Theresa May (Remain): 219
Andrea Leadsom (Leave): 70
Gay can be cured Stephen Crabb (Remain): 17
Dr Jeremy Hunt (Remain): 5
Free Jolly Liam Fox (Leave): 9
Sajid Javid (Remain): 7
Beaker Nicky Morgan (Remain): 3
Jezza Corbyn (um): 14
I back JoBo honest Mike Gove: 30
Author
Discussion

s2art

18,937 posts

252 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
ATG said:
Esseesse said:
king arthur said:
I don't think the Tories need worry about Labour, there is a very real possibility of them undergoing a split something akin to the one that gave us the SDP. They won't sort out their problems in the next four years, let alone one.
Indeed, Aaron Banks looking to capitalise here... http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/le...
A Labour split would be extremely dangerous for the Conservatives. If Labour splits into one party that can appeal to the hard left and another than can appeal to the centre ground, then we are all but guaranteed a hung parliament. Who's going to form the next coalition? The two halves of the old Labour Party, their new centre half and the Lib Dems, all three of that lot ... or someone and the Conservatives?
WE have seen precedent on this with the SDP. It didnt work well then, and it wouldnt now. That just lets the Tories in on a cruise.

Robertj21a

16,475 posts

104 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
ATG said:
A Labour split would be extremely dangerous for the Conservatives. If Labour splits into one party that can appeal to the hard left and another than can appeal to the centre ground, then we are all but guaranteed a hung parliament. Who's going to form the next coalition? The two halves of the old Labour Party, their new centre half and the Lib Dems, all three of that lot ... or someone and the Conservatives?
No need for any more coalitions.....

ATG

20,485 posts

271 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
Robertj21a said:
ATG said:
A Labour split would be extremely dangerous for the Conservatives. If Labour splits into one party that can appeal to the hard left and another than can appeal to the centre ground, then we are all but guaranteed a hung parliament. Who's going to form the next coalition? The two halves of the old Labour Party, their new centre half and the Lib Dems, all three of that lot ... or someone and the Conservatives?
No need for any more coalitions.....
You dint think there's any chance of a hung Parliament?

ATG

20,485 posts

271 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
s2art said:
WE have seen precedent on this with the SDP. It didnt work well then, and it wouldnt now. That just lets the Tories in on a cruise.
The SDP damn nearly worked, and amongst the PLP Corbyn is far more politically isolated than Foot was. There's a large cohort of people in the PLP who knew success under Blair and Brown. If there is a split, it'll be much bigger than another "group of four".

king arthur

6,538 posts

260 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
Esseesse said:
king arthur said:
I don't think the Tories need worry about Labour, there is a very real possibility of them undergoing a split something akin to the one that gave us the SDP. They won't sort out their problems in the next four years, let alone one.
Indeed, Aaron Banks looking to capitalise here... http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/le...
I was actually going to add to my post that UKIP may well re-align themselves and take over Labour's traditional heartlands, but felt I would have been speculating a bit too much. Hadn't read that!

RobDickinson

31,343 posts

253 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
ATG said:
A Labour split would be extremely dangerous for the Conservatives. If Labour splits into one party that can appeal to the hard left and another than can appeal to the centre ground, then we are all but guaranteed a hung parliament. Who's going to form the next coalition? The two halves of the old Labour Party, their new centre half and the Lib Dems, all three of that lot ... or someone and the Conservatives?
Not in a FPTP system with redrawn boundaries which is what your next election is.

Splitting the labour vote would see more tory seats won outright, if they contested marginals.

king arthur

6,538 posts

260 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
ATG said:
You dint think there's any chance of a hung Parliament?
No. FPTP and the upcoming boundary changes will see to it.

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

122 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
Tomorrow's front pages make for entertaining reading.




jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
Esseesse said:
Indeed, Aaron Banks looking to capitalise here... http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/le...
link said:
Banks has been credited with professionalising Ukip’s referendum push through the Leave.EU campaign. He deployed senior executives and staff from his insurance companies and hired the Washington DC political campaign strategy firm Goddard Gunster on a multimillion-pound fee to sharpen its message.

“It was taking an American-style media approach,” said Banks. “What they said early on was ‘facts don’t work’ and that’s it. The remain campaign featured fact, fact, fact, fact, fact. It just doesn’t work. You have got to connect with people emotionally. It’s the Trump success.”

One video on the Leave.EU Facebook page, viewed 1.6m times, begins: “Are you concerned about the amount of crime committed in the UK by foreign criminals?” before ending with the message: “Isn’t it time to take back control.”

“The Conservatives are now trying to rewrite the campaign that immigration wasn’t important, but boy was immigration important,” Banks said. “The first thing we did was poll everybody and we found that if immigration wasn’t the issue, the issue was schools or education, proxies for immigration. It was the number one issue by a country mile.”
I was under impression that he and Farage are best of buddies?

dandarez

13,246 posts

282 months

Thursday 30th June 2016
quotequote all
Luther Blisset said:
s2art said:
But how will a remainer unite the party when the bulk of the party members are for leave?
She's already done it by saying there will be no going back.
No second referendum, and she'd ask the party whether or not to be in the free maket.
She's more of a "leaver" now than BJ who changed his tune 2 days later.

Elroy Blue said:
Have you ANY idea of the complete abortion she made of her time as Home Secretary. At this very moment she's peddling lies about her 'achievements '
Policies aside, I think she's got the right temperemant and personality for the job. Better than Gove or Jeremy Hunt.
But I don't think Gove really wants it.
I think he just wanted to ensure BJ doesn't as he's too much of a divisive figure, and would constantly be blamed for putting us here in the first place, undermining his tenure.
'course he doesn't!
It's his Daily Wail wife, Sarah Vine, who wants it.
'She' leaked the email.
'She' sees herself and SamCam 2, ie: SaVi

'Michael, I just can't wait to wave with you to the Nation outside No. 10'.

In your dreams, girl!

Timbergiant

995 posts

129 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
Theresa May for me, she's gorgeous. there, I said it.

Robertj21a

16,475 posts

104 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
ATG said:
You dint think there's any chance of a hung Parliament?
No, I just can't see (at present) how the ragtag of opposition numbers would add up to anything stopping an outright victory for the Conservatives. A week is indeed a long time in politics, as we've just seen, and while Theresa May will be a safe pair of hands, we don't know if Labour will have any credible leader. Obviously Wee Willy Krankie is a known quantity.

zygalski

7,759 posts

144 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
Timbergiant said:
Theresa May for me, she's gorgeous. there, I said it.
You go for the pallid complexion, eh?

Skywalker

3,269 posts

213 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
Leadsom for me.

Macavity Cat May - lacks integrity by using the Gordon Browb 'Hide. I am scared' tactic during the referendum so that she could back both horses. Meh.

Murdoch Michael Gove - on the plus side a Brexiteer - but I am left wondering who is paying the (bag) piper.

Liam Fox - whilst he has had a proper job before & during politics - still a taint of sleaze about his expenses claims which prop red him leaving Defence

Steven Crabb - Who he?

Leadsom - stood up and was counted as a Brexiteer - told GO that he was wrong. Fresh face - she would be my preferred candidate

Edit to add - Jeremy Hunt backs May. That makes her toxic by association

Edited by Skywalker on Friday 1st July 06:56

JagLover

42,265 posts

234 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
vonuber said:
I'm a political centrist and I think I'd be tempted by May. I wouldn't be by Gove.
Can you name me a single policy area where Gove is more right wing than May? smile

The same old games being played. First it was all out attack on Boris then a quick switch of focus on to Gove. It was amusing to hear R4 talk about the right wing ideologue Gove on my way home last night. Who apparently had described the teaching profession as the "blob" (it was actually the educational establishment).




brenflys777

2,678 posts

176 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all

fizz47

2,663 posts

209 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
Skywalker said:
Leadsom for me.

Macavity Cat May - lacks integrity by using the Gordon Browb 'Hide. I am scared' tactic during the referendum so that she could back both horses. Meh.

Murdoch Michael Gove - on the plus side a Brexiteer - but I am left wondering who is paying the (bag) piper.

Liam Fox - whilst he has had a proper job before & during politics - still a taint of sleaze about his expenses claims which prop red him leaving Defence

Steven Crabb - Who he?

Leadsom - stood up and was counted as a Brexiteer - told GO that he was wrong. Fresh face - she would be my preferred candidate

Edit to add - Jeremy Hunt backs May. That makes her toxic by association

Edited by Skywalker on Friday 1st July 06:56


Totally agree - Leadsom all the way

Jockman

17,912 posts

159 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
fizz47 said:


Totally agree - Leadsom all the way
Doesn't have the gravitas required.

eatcustard

1,003 posts

126 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
I cant vote for the new PM but a toss up with May or Gove.

May may be the safer option, but Gove to me offers more.


Yertis

18,016 posts

265 months

Friday 1st July 2016
quotequote all
ATG said:
Is that the same Andrea Leadsom who managed to get savaged by some light weights on Woman's Hour earlier this week? No. Surely there must be two of them? The one I heard spouted vacuous platitudes and seemed to have no grasp of the most basic facts.
No wonder she's so popular on PH.




me included paperbag