Tory Leadership Election

[Hosenbugler]

Interesting, not a party member ( I never will be a member of ANY political party) but there is a part of me that thinks it will be a May/Leadsom vote of.

I might, just might, head off to the bookies, and have a wager on Leadsom. It really does hinge, I think, on TM convincing enough party members she will do what she claims.

[GoodOlBoy]

///ajd said:

Its possible but risky.

You mean she could be such a lightweight liability fumbling around the EU making ill advised demands and getting horribly outplayed to such an extent the need to u-turn is totally compelling?

Its possible but the damage could make the current mess look like just an entrée.

That's not likely given that she's got a substantial business/financial background and is probably one of the best informed MP's around.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHy2ANVEIvc

[anonymous-user]

Sam All said:

Who would you suggest?

I don't really know, TBH. First, I'm not really clear in my own mind to what extent negotiating the terms of our exit from the EU overlaps with negotiating the terms of our future trading with the EU. A bit, I'd guess, but not completely. So I'd certainly want someone with trade deal negotiation experience onside. That means pulling our trade negotiators (all 20 of them!) out of the EU, but I really have no idea who they are. Pretty sure no front bench politician has that sort of experience.

Secondly, I'd look for people who negotiate stuff for a living, not necessarily a politician. And they'd have to have a lot of experience of negotiating with the EU, so know the EU "mindset". Again, I don't know who falls into that category, but I doubt it would be a front bench politician.

Thirdly (and this is more about the line to take than the team), I think I'd want a handle on the extent to which the EU negotiates for the benefit of the EU vs for the benefit of the member states as a whole. It's a bit of a fiddly distinction, but if the EU has to go back to all 27 states to resolve big impasses in negotiations, that's a point I'd want to put pressure on. And so I'd want someone who knew how to exploit that pressure point.

If the question is "who would the negotiating team be under/be reporting to?" then I'd say an "inner cabinet" of the PM and perhaps 5 others, eg Chancellor, Foreign Sec, Home Sec, Trade Sec and perhaps Mark Carney.

Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 2nd July 11:30

[Beati Dogu]

confused_buyer said:

///ajd said:

There are not enough brexit MPs to overturn her and the chaos of the current post brexit atmosphere is ample evidence to shove in the face of brexiters and say - "give over, the instability is killing us".

Wasn't May actually expected to back the Leave side anyway and her choice of Remain something of a surprise? Her support for Remain made Corbyn's efforts looks passionate. Several people thought May had died.

I think you're kidding yourself a bit if you think May will be able to overturn the referendum result or will want to.

You have to wonder why rabid Eurotrash like Soubry, Soames, Clarke and Hezza are backing May.

If I wanted to wreck it, I'd engineer a deep recession (the BBC and Sky are already trying to talk us into one), blame it on the instability caused by Brexit and then postpone it indefinitely. Enough people will probably fall for it. So while it will get the elites and the troughers what they want, millions will see it for what it is and never vote Conservative again. I hope she feels it'll be worth it.

[Sam All]

Greg66 said:

Sam All said:

Who would you suggest?

I don't really know, TBH. First, I'm not really clear in my own mind to what extent negotiating the terms of our exit from the EU overlaps with negotiating the terms of our future trading with the EU. A bit, I'd guess, but not completely. So I'd certainly want someone with trade deal negotiation experience onside. That means pulling our trade negotiators (all 20 of them!) out of the EU, but I really have no idea who they are. Pretty sure no front bench politician has that sort of experience.

Secondly, I'd look for people who negotiate stuff for a living, not necessarily a politician. And they'd have to have a lot of experience of negotiating with the EU, so know the EU "mindset". Again, I don't know who falls into that category, but I doubt it would be a front bench politician.

Thirdly (and this is more about the line to take than the team), I think I'd want a handle on the extent to which the EU negotiates for the benefit of the EU vs for the benefit of the member states as a whole. It's a bit of a fiddly distinction, but if the EU has to go back to all 27 states to resolve big impasses in negotiations, that's a point I'd want to put pressure on. And so I'd want someone who knew how to exploit that pressure point.

That's fair - Tony Blair has offered,and he does tick many of the boxes and can be a good mercenary and redeem himself. If he is free after next Wednesday.

[brenflys777]

The Telegraph have pulled an article about Theresa May which was critical and also well evidenced in issues about her performance as Home Sec. They do mention her success taking on the Police Fed - but they can't strike, making them an easy target.

http://order-order.com/2016/07/02/read-full-articl...

If Theresa May does get coronated, the biggest gainers will be the 'remain' conservative MPs and Nigel Farage.

If Leadsom ( the apparent lightweight who was Barclays youngest ever director..... ) wins then not only will BREXIT happen in a pragmatic way, but UKIP will probably swing to the left as it loses many members and probably politicians like Evans and Carswell to the conservatives and focus' on the Labour voting North.

[JagLover]

Not everyone is impressed by May

http://order-order.com/2016/07/02/read-full-articl...

[anonymous-user]

Sam All said:

That's fair - Tony Blair has offered,and he does tick many of the boxes and can be a good mercenary and redeem himself. If he is free after next Wednesday.

It's funny, like most, I can't stand Blair. But much as it pains me to admit it, he Does tick the boxes for this role.

We have have to look further afield. The chap that negotiated the Good Friday agreement was a Canadian, IIRC. That sort of further afield.

[Sam All]

brenflys777 said:

The Telegraph have pulled an article about Theresa May which was critical and also well evidenced in issues about her performance as Home Sec. They do mention her success taking on the Police Fed - but they can't strike, making them an easy target.

http://order-order.com/2016/07/02/read-full-articl...

If Theresa May does get coronated, the biggest gainers will be the 'remain' conservative MPs and Nigel Farage.

If Leadsom ( the apparent lightweight who was Barclays youngest ever director..... ) wins then not only will BREXIT happen in a pragmatic way, but UKIP will probably swing to the left as it loses many members and probably politicians like Evans and Carswell to the conservatives and focus' on the Labour voting North.

Thanks for posting that. I'd vote for Leadsom. Coronations are old hat, but regrettably they still happen. And the departing King will be working to ensure that.

[jjlynn27]

brenflys777 said:

The Telegraph have pulled an article about Theresa May which was critical and also well evidenced in issues about her performance as Home Sec. They do mention her success taking on the Police Fed - but they can't strike, making them an easy target.

http://order-order.com/2016/07/02/read-full-articl...

If Theresa May does get coronated, the biggest gainers will be the 'remain' conservative MPs and Nigel Farage.

If Leadsom ( the apparent lightweight who was Barclays youngest ever director..... ) wins then not only will BREXIT happen in a pragmatic way, but UKIP will probably swing to the left as it loses many members and probably politicians like Evans and Carswell to the conservatives and focus' on the Labour voting North.

I was under impression that Carswell is getting expelled from UKIP on Monday (can't remember the source, so I could be completely wrong).

As for May, I think she'll get the nod.

[Derek Smith]

I'm confused as to why May's preferences in the referendum are of any consequence. The vote is over. We want someone who will do their best for the UK in negotiations with the EU. The past is over. The vote has been taken. It confers no special privileges to those who went for the option that won.

[///ajd]

GoodOlBoy said:

///ajd said:

Its possible but risky.

You mean she could be such a lightweight liability fumbling around the EU making ill advised demands and getting horribly outplayed to such an extent the need to u-turn is totally compelling?

Its possible but the damage could make the current mess look like just an entrée.

That's not likely given that she's got a substantial business/financial background and is probably one of the best informed MP's around.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHy2ANVEIvc

I don't think she says anything convincing:

- "we can't know anything a month ahead"
- "ignore obama etc., this is about the views of voters"
- "implication its mainly about immigration"
- "only people with skin in the game are the voters, ignore business"
- "pressure of immigration on services"
- "says we will almost certainly come out of single market, but very vague on the outcome"
- "british option on trade - easy to negotiate free trade"

If she believes what she says on trade deals she is very very deluded.

[CX53]

brenflys777 said:

The Telegraph have pulled an article about Theresa May which was critical and also well evidenced in issues about her performance as Home Sec. They do mention her success taking on the Police Fed - but they can't strike, making them an easy target.

http://order-order.com/2016/07/02/read-full-articl...

If Theresa May does get coronated, the biggest gainers will be the 'remain' conservative MPs and Nigel Farage.

If Leadsom ( the apparent lightweight who was Barclays youngest ever director..... ) wins then not only will BREXIT happen in a pragmatic way, but UKIP will probably swing to the left as it loses many members and probably politicians like Evans and Carswell to the conservatives and focus' on the Labour voting North.

Apparent lightweight, doesn't have the experience in a senior government role, etc etc...

I'd rather someone with great credentials like her (and someone who campaigned for brexit instead of sitting on the fence to keep in Dave and everyone else's good books just incase!) than someone like May. May has held a senior role, has experience of it, and has done a crap job IMO, but apparently that's better than holding a more junior role and generally having a better CV

There is only one woman for the job as far as I'm concerned but i really can't see it happening.

[CX53]

///ajd said:

I don't think she says anything convincing:

- "we can't know anything a month ahead"
- "ignore obama etc., this is about the views of voters"
- "implication its mainly about immigration"
- "only people with skin in the game are the voters, ignore business"
- "pressure of immigration on services"
- "says we will almost certainly come out of single market, but very vague on the outcome"
- "british option on trade - easy to negotiate free trade"

If she believes what she says on trade deals she is very very deluded.

If you haven't already, watch some other interviews, debates etc before you make your mind up. She's got some good ideas and has had some decent achievements in politics already. As I said earlier in the thread, she happens to be my local MP so I probably know more about her than most I suppose. I have never voted conservative (not long been in leadsom's constituency) but if they had the right leader then I absolutely would, and i don't see why she wouldn't do a decent job, or why may would either really.

I think Leadsom would go in to EU trade negotiations knowing the strength of the UK and how much EU countries are keen to do a decent deal with us. May has already been saying the opposite and appears weak from the start, I can't see her getting the best deals for us.

[GoodOlBoy]

///ajd said:

I don't think she says anything convincing:

- "we can't know anything a month ahead"
- "ignore obama etc., this is about the views of voters"
- "implication its mainly about immigration"
- "only people with skin in the game are the voters, ignore business"
- "pressure of immigration on services"
- "says we will almost certainly come out of single market, but very vague on the outcome"
- "british option on trade - easy to negotiate free trade"

If she believes what she says on trade deals she is very very deluded.

I didn't expect you to agree but she's certainly not a lightweight with regards to business and finance.

[PositronicRay]

Beati Dogu said:

confused_buyer said:

///ajd said:

There are not enough brexit MPs to overturn her and the chaos of the current post brexit atmosphere is ample evidence to shove in the face of brexiters and say - "give over, the instability is killing us".

Wasn't May actually expected to back the Leave side anyway and her choice of Remain something of a surprise? Her support for Remain made Corbyn's efforts looks passionate. Several people thought May had died.

I think you're kidding yourself a bit if you think May will be able to overturn the referendum result or will want to.

You have to wonder why rabid Eurotrash like Soubry, Soames, Clarke and Hezza are backing May.

If I wanted to wreck it, I'd engineer a deep recession (the BBC and Sky are already trying to talk us into one), blame it on the instability caused by Brexit and then postpone it indefinitely. Enough people will probably fall for it. So while it will get the elites and the troughers what they want, millions will see it for what it is and never vote Conservative again. I hope she feels it'll be worth it.

What an odd view of the world, you come across as bitter and twisted.

[wc98]

Sam All said:

brenflys777 said:

The Telegraph have pulled an article about Theresa May which was critical and also well evidenced in issues about her performance as Home Sec. They do mention her success taking on the Police Fed - but they can't strike, making them an easy target.

http://order-order.com/2016/07/02/read-full-articl...

If Theresa May does get coronated, the biggest gainers will be the 'remain' conservative MPs and Nigel Farage.

If Leadsom ( the apparent lightweight who was Barclays youngest ever director..... ) wins then not only will BREXIT happen in a pragmatic way, but UKIP will probably swing to the left as it loses many members and probably politicians like Evans and Carswell to the conservatives and focus' on the Labour voting North.

Thanks for posting that. I'd vote for Leadsom. Coronations are old hat, but regrettably they still happen. And the departing King will be working to ensure that.

in the poll asking who will be the next leader of the conservatives i voted for may. not because i thought she was the best person for the job, but that is who the party is likely to vote for.if may is voted in as leader i think further down the line we will find out how many leave voters have decided they have had enough of the establishment altogether. it may be pie in the sky wishful thinking on my part, but i have a funny feeling the political landscape in the eu is not the only place we will be seeing big changes in the coming years.

[don4l]

Derek Smith said:

I'm confused as to why May's preferences in the referendum are of any consequence. The vote is over. We want someone who will do their best for the UK in negotiations with the EU. The past is over. The vote has been taken. It confers no special privileges to those who went for the option that won.

I'll try to answer that.

Unlike many on here, I really believe that the UK is in a very strong negotiating position.

Remainers are less optimistic.

We are going to have to negotiate a new relationship with the EU.

I don't think that May would be willing to adopt a "robust" stance in the forthcoming talks.

I believe that we can get a free trade deal with absolutely no strings. If the EU is not willing to agree to this, then I am happy to tell them to sod off.

Like you, I have children, and my main concern is for them.

We just see the situation differently.

[Beati Dogu]

PositronicRay said:

What an odd view of the world, you come across as bitter and twisted.

Just realistic. It's certainly one way they could play it.

ash73 said:

brenflys777 said:

If Theresa May does get coronated, the biggest gainers will be the 'remain' conservative MPs and Nigel Farage.

Surely the moment she presses the Article 50 big red button, UKIP are dead in the water?

Even if she did, the establishment will try to foist some sort of Norwegian stitch up on us, which means we'll still be in the EU in all but name. That's not what we voted for.

If and when they betray us, they'll split the Conservative party's support and leave the door open for a true centre-right party that will act in the national interest for once. Whether that is formed from the Conservative party itself of UKIP try to reinvent themselves, I don't know.

[don4l]

PositronicRay said:

What an odd view of the world, you come across as bitter and twisted.

Irony??

The Big Sulk continues unabated.