something afoot in Turkey?
Discussion
Sylvaforever said:
paul789 said:
As ever, who benefits? Things really do seem to be going Putin's way.....Brexit, now this......
How do you square that one away then 
I wonder if Lavrov is managing to suppress his amusement across the table from John Kerry?
Some jets flying low into the city and attack helicopter firing at intelligence building
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=229_1468613688
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=229_1468613688
johnxjsc1985 said:
Seems a bit of a stretch to hold a Coup in the name of Democracy .
Not necessarily if it's to defend the rights and freedoms enshrined in a constitution from an (elected) government in the process of curtailing them. Doesn't the US military pledge to protect and defend the constitution not the govt, similarly in the UK, the military oath of allegiance is to the Queen (constitutional head state/The Crown) not the elected govt. This is an important check and balance to protect a citizenry from the tyranny of its govt, admittedly in extremis. I sometimes don't think some people in the mature western democracies (like we've seen the week with Cameron gone in 48hrs) don't realise how lucky we are to have orderly transitions of power.Not that I know enough about Turkey to say that's what's happening here. But I do recall there's outrage about Erdogan increasingly autocratic rule, didn't he close down or take newspapers under state control?
Edited by Northern Munkee on Friday 15th July 22:31
RedWhiteMonkey said:
AJL308 said:
'Dave' was Turkey's head cheer leader for them getting in. He said as much and they believed him. Perfectly reasonable to take him at his word.
He then changed his mind because it suited his political purposes.
There was never any way that Turkey was getting into the EU in the near future, there is something like 35 criteria that need to be satisfied and they only meet one at the moment (probably none now). It was pure and simple scaremongering.He then changed his mind because it suited his political purposes.
Look - Call Me Dave was happy to tell everyone that he wanted to see Turkey in the EU. If our EU referendum had never have happened he would have still pursued that line rather than suddenly backtracking on it as he did.
We would still be on course for a Turkish accession. Fortunately, we now will never be. The EU may well be but we won't.
2016 so far could be the prologue of a Tom Clancy WW3 book. 
Here's a relevant article. The page seems to be down now so I've quoted the article and will edit it out when the page is backup.
Here's a relevant article. The page seems to be down now so I've quoted the article and will edit it out when the page is backup.
Michael Rubin said:
March 21, 2016 9:39
Could there be a coup in Turkey?
The situation in Turkey is bad and getting worse. It’s not just the deterioration in security amidst a wave of terrorism. Public debt might be stable, but private debt is out-of-control, the tourism sector is in free-fall, and the decline in the currency has impacted every citizen’s buying power. There is a broad sense, election results notwithstanding, that President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an is out-of-control. He is imprisoning opponents, seizing newspapers left and right, and building palaces at the rate of a mad sultan or aspiring caliph. In recent weeks, he has once again threatened to dissolve the constitutional court. Corruption is rife. His son Bilal reportedly fled Italy on a forged Saudi diplomatic passport as the Italian police closed in on him in an alleged money laundering scandal. His outbursts are raising eyebrows both in Turkey and abroad. Even members of his ruling party whisper about his increasing paranoia which, according to some Turkish officials, has gotten so bad that he seeks to install anti-aircraft missiles at his palace to prevent airborne men-in-black from targeting him in a snatch-and-grab operation.
Turks — and the Turkish military — increasingly recognize that Erdo?an is taking Turkey to the precipice. By first bestowing legitimacy upon imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan with renewed negotiations and then precipitating renewed conflict, he has taken Turkey down a path in which there is no chance of victory and a high chance of de facto partition. After all, if civil war renews as in the 1980s and early 1990s, Turkey’s Kurds will be hard-pressed to settle for anything less, all the more so given the precedent now established by their brethren in Iraq and Syria.
Erdo?an long ago sought to kneecap the Turkish military. For the first decade of his rule, both the US government and European Union cheered him on. But that was before even Erdo?an’s most ardent foreign apologists recognized the depth of his descent into madness and autocracy. So if the Turkish military moves to oust Erdo?an and place his inner circle behind bars, could they get away with it?
In the realm of analysis rather than advocacy, the answer is yes. At this point in election season, it is doubtful that the Obama administration would do more than castigate any coup leaders, especially if they immediately laid out a clear path to the restoration of democracy. Nor would Erdo?an engender the type of sympathy that Egyptian President Muhammad Morsi did. When Morsi was ousted, his commitment to democracy was still subject to debate; that debate is now moot when it comes to the Turkish strongman. Neither the Republican nor Democratic frontrunners would put US prestige on the line to seek a return to the status quo ante; they might offer lip service against a coup, but they would work with the new regime.
Coup leaders might moot European and American human rights and civil society criticism and that of journalists by immediately freeing all detained journalists and academics and by returning seized newspapers and television stations to their rightful owners. Turkey’s NATO membership is no deterrent to action: Neither Turkey nor Greece lost their NATO membership after previous coups. Should a new leadership engage sincerely with Turkey’s Kurds, Kurds might come onboard. Neither European nor American public opinion would likely be sympathetic to the execution of Erdo?an, his son and son-in-law, or key aides like Egemen Ba??? and Cüneyd Zapsu, although they would accept a trial for corruption and long incarceration. Erdo?an might hope friends would rally to his side, but most of his friends — both internationally and inside Turkey — are attracted to his power. Once out of his palace, he may find himself very much alone, a shriveled and confused figure like Saddam Hussein at his own trial.
I make no predictions, but given rising discord in Turkey as well as the likelihood that the Turkish military would suffer no significant consequence should it imitate Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s game plan in Egypt, no one should be surprised if Turkey’s rocky politics soon get rockier.
https://www.aei.org/publication/could-there-be-a-coup-in-turkey/Could there be a coup in Turkey?
The situation in Turkey is bad and getting worse. It’s not just the deterioration in security amidst a wave of terrorism. Public debt might be stable, but private debt is out-of-control, the tourism sector is in free-fall, and the decline in the currency has impacted every citizen’s buying power. There is a broad sense, election results notwithstanding, that President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an is out-of-control. He is imprisoning opponents, seizing newspapers left and right, and building palaces at the rate of a mad sultan or aspiring caliph. In recent weeks, he has once again threatened to dissolve the constitutional court. Corruption is rife. His son Bilal reportedly fled Italy on a forged Saudi diplomatic passport as the Italian police closed in on him in an alleged money laundering scandal. His outbursts are raising eyebrows both in Turkey and abroad. Even members of his ruling party whisper about his increasing paranoia which, according to some Turkish officials, has gotten so bad that he seeks to install anti-aircraft missiles at his palace to prevent airborne men-in-black from targeting him in a snatch-and-grab operation.
Turks — and the Turkish military — increasingly recognize that Erdo?an is taking Turkey to the precipice. By first bestowing legitimacy upon imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan with renewed negotiations and then precipitating renewed conflict, he has taken Turkey down a path in which there is no chance of victory and a high chance of de facto partition. After all, if civil war renews as in the 1980s and early 1990s, Turkey’s Kurds will be hard-pressed to settle for anything less, all the more so given the precedent now established by their brethren in Iraq and Syria.
Erdo?an long ago sought to kneecap the Turkish military. For the first decade of his rule, both the US government and European Union cheered him on. But that was before even Erdo?an’s most ardent foreign apologists recognized the depth of his descent into madness and autocracy. So if the Turkish military moves to oust Erdo?an and place his inner circle behind bars, could they get away with it?
In the realm of analysis rather than advocacy, the answer is yes. At this point in election season, it is doubtful that the Obama administration would do more than castigate any coup leaders, especially if they immediately laid out a clear path to the restoration of democracy. Nor would Erdo?an engender the type of sympathy that Egyptian President Muhammad Morsi did. When Morsi was ousted, his commitment to democracy was still subject to debate; that debate is now moot when it comes to the Turkish strongman. Neither the Republican nor Democratic frontrunners would put US prestige on the line to seek a return to the status quo ante; they might offer lip service against a coup, but they would work with the new regime.
Coup leaders might moot European and American human rights and civil society criticism and that of journalists by immediately freeing all detained journalists and academics and by returning seized newspapers and television stations to their rightful owners. Turkey’s NATO membership is no deterrent to action: Neither Turkey nor Greece lost their NATO membership after previous coups. Should a new leadership engage sincerely with Turkey’s Kurds, Kurds might come onboard. Neither European nor American public opinion would likely be sympathetic to the execution of Erdo?an, his son and son-in-law, or key aides like Egemen Ba??? and Cüneyd Zapsu, although they would accept a trial for corruption and long incarceration. Erdo?an might hope friends would rally to his side, but most of his friends — both internationally and inside Turkey — are attracted to his power. Once out of his palace, he may find himself very much alone, a shriveled and confused figure like Saddam Hussein at his own trial.
I make no predictions, but given rising discord in Turkey as well as the likelihood that the Turkish military would suffer no significant consequence should it imitate Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s game plan in Egypt, no one should be surprised if Turkey’s rocky politics soon get rockier.
Northern Munkee said:
johnxjsc1985 said:
Seems a bit of a stretch to hold a Coup in the name of Democracy .
Not necessarily if it's to defend the rights and freedoms enshrined in a constitution from an (elected) government in the process of curtailing them. Doesn't the US military pledge to protect and defend the constitution not the govt, similarly in the UK, the military oath of allegiance is to the Queen (constitutional head state/The Crown) not the elected govt. This is an important check and balance to protect a citizenry from the tyranny of its govt.Not that I know about Turkey to say that's what's happening here. But I do recall there's outrage about Erdogan increasingly autocratic rule, didn't he close down or take newspapers under state control?
Turkey is not a democratic nation and therefore it's perfectly fair for those organising the coup to do so in the hope they can restore democracy to the country.
k off line in the sand?Northern Munkee said:
johnxjsc1985 said:
Seems a bit of a stretch to hold a Coup in the name of Democracy .
Not necessarily if it's to defend the rights and freedoms enshrined in a constitution from an (elected) government in the process of curtailing them. Doesn't the US military pledge to protect and defend the constitution not the govt, similarly in the UK, the military oath of allegiance is to the Queen (constitutional head state/The Crown) not the elected govt. This is an important check and balance to protect a citizenry from the tyranny of its govt.Not that I know about Turkey to say that's what's happening here. But I do recall there's outrage about Erdogan increasingly autocratic rule, didn't he close down or take newspapers under state control?
Edited by GoodOlBoy on Friday 15th July 22:49
EricE said:
2016 so far could be the prologue of a Tom Clancy WW3 book.
Here's a relevant article. The page seems to be down now so I've quoted the article and will edit it out when the page is backup.
Re Clancy - was just thinking that. I wish we could re-start 2016 and just have a vanilla year.Here's a relevant article. The page seems to be down now so I've quoted the article and will edit it out when the page is backup.
Michael Rubin said:
March 21, 2016 9:39
Could there be a coup in Turkey?
The situation in Turkey is bad and getting worse. It’s not just the deterioration in security amidst a wave of terrorism. Public debt might be stable, but private debt is out-of-control, the tourism sector is in free-fall, and the decline in the currency has impacted every citizen’s buying power. There is a broad sense, election results notwithstanding, that President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an is out-of-control. He is imprisoning opponents, seizing newspapers left and right, and building palaces at the rate of a mad sultan or aspiring caliph. In recent weeks, he has once again threatened to dissolve the constitutional court. Corruption is rife. His son Bilal reportedly fled Italy on a forged Saudi diplomatic passport as the Italian police closed in on him in an alleged money laundering scandal. His outbursts are raising eyebrows both in Turkey and abroad. Even members of his ruling party whisper about his increasing paranoia which, according to some Turkish officials, has gotten so bad that he seeks to install anti-aircraft missiles at his palace to prevent airborne men-in-black from targeting him in a snatch-and-grab operation.
Turks — and the Turkish military — increasingly recognize that Erdo?an is taking Turkey to the precipice. By first bestowing legitimacy upon imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan with renewed negotiations and then precipitating renewed conflict, he has taken Turkey down a path in which there is no chance of victory and a high chance of de facto partition. After all, if civil war renews as in the 1980s and early 1990s, Turkey’s Kurds will be hard-pressed to settle for anything less, all the more so given the precedent now established by their brethren in Iraq and Syria.
Erdo?an long ago sought to kneecap the Turkish military. For the first decade of his rule, both the US government and European Union cheered him on. But that was before even Erdo?an’s most ardent foreign apologists recognized the depth of his descent into madness and autocracy. So if the Turkish military moves to oust Erdo?an and place his inner circle behind bars, could they get away with it?
In the realm of analysis rather than advocacy, the answer is yes. At this point in election season, it is doubtful that the Obama administration would do more than castigate any coup leaders, especially if they immediately laid out a clear path to the restoration of democracy. Nor would Erdo?an engender the type of sympathy that Egyptian President Muhammad Morsi did. When Morsi was ousted, his commitment to democracy was still subject to debate; that debate is now moot when it comes to the Turkish strongman. Neither the Republican nor Democratic frontrunners would put US prestige on the line to seek a return to the status quo ante; they might offer lip service against a coup, but they would work with the new regime.
Coup leaders might moot European and American human rights and civil society criticism and that of journalists by immediately freeing all detained journalists and academics and by returning seized newspapers and television stations to their rightful owners. Turkey’s NATO membership is no deterrent to action: Neither Turkey nor Greece lost their NATO membership after previous coups. Should a new leadership engage sincerely with Turkey’s Kurds, Kurds might come onboard. Neither European nor American public opinion would likely be sympathetic to the execution of Erdo?an, his son and son-in-law, or key aides like Egemen Ba??? and Cüneyd Zapsu, although they would accept a trial for corruption and long incarceration. Erdo?an might hope friends would rally to his side, but most of his friends — both internationally and inside Turkey — are attracted to his power. Once out of his palace, he may find himself very much alone, a shriveled and confused figure like Saddam Hussein at his own trial.
I make no predictions, but given rising discord in Turkey as well as the likelihood that the Turkish military would suffer no significant consequence should it imitate Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s game plan in Egypt, no one should be surprised if Turkey’s rocky politics soon get rockier.
https://www.aei.org/publication/could-there-be-a-coup-in-turkey/Could there be a coup in Turkey?
The situation in Turkey is bad and getting worse. It’s not just the deterioration in security amidst a wave of terrorism. Public debt might be stable, but private debt is out-of-control, the tourism sector is in free-fall, and the decline in the currency has impacted every citizen’s buying power. There is a broad sense, election results notwithstanding, that President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an is out-of-control. He is imprisoning opponents, seizing newspapers left and right, and building palaces at the rate of a mad sultan or aspiring caliph. In recent weeks, he has once again threatened to dissolve the constitutional court. Corruption is rife. His son Bilal reportedly fled Italy on a forged Saudi diplomatic passport as the Italian police closed in on him in an alleged money laundering scandal. His outbursts are raising eyebrows both in Turkey and abroad. Even members of his ruling party whisper about his increasing paranoia which, according to some Turkish officials, has gotten so bad that he seeks to install anti-aircraft missiles at his palace to prevent airborne men-in-black from targeting him in a snatch-and-grab operation.
Turks — and the Turkish military — increasingly recognize that Erdo?an is taking Turkey to the precipice. By first bestowing legitimacy upon imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan with renewed negotiations and then precipitating renewed conflict, he has taken Turkey down a path in which there is no chance of victory and a high chance of de facto partition. After all, if civil war renews as in the 1980s and early 1990s, Turkey’s Kurds will be hard-pressed to settle for anything less, all the more so given the precedent now established by their brethren in Iraq and Syria.
Erdo?an long ago sought to kneecap the Turkish military. For the first decade of his rule, both the US government and European Union cheered him on. But that was before even Erdo?an’s most ardent foreign apologists recognized the depth of his descent into madness and autocracy. So if the Turkish military moves to oust Erdo?an and place his inner circle behind bars, could they get away with it?
In the realm of analysis rather than advocacy, the answer is yes. At this point in election season, it is doubtful that the Obama administration would do more than castigate any coup leaders, especially if they immediately laid out a clear path to the restoration of democracy. Nor would Erdo?an engender the type of sympathy that Egyptian President Muhammad Morsi did. When Morsi was ousted, his commitment to democracy was still subject to debate; that debate is now moot when it comes to the Turkish strongman. Neither the Republican nor Democratic frontrunners would put US prestige on the line to seek a return to the status quo ante; they might offer lip service against a coup, but they would work with the new regime.
Coup leaders might moot European and American human rights and civil society criticism and that of journalists by immediately freeing all detained journalists and academics and by returning seized newspapers and television stations to their rightful owners. Turkey’s NATO membership is no deterrent to action: Neither Turkey nor Greece lost their NATO membership after previous coups. Should a new leadership engage sincerely with Turkey’s Kurds, Kurds might come onboard. Neither European nor American public opinion would likely be sympathetic to the execution of Erdo?an, his son and son-in-law, or key aides like Egemen Ba??? and Cüneyd Zapsu, although they would accept a trial for corruption and long incarceration. Erdo?an might hope friends would rally to his side, but most of his friends — both internationally and inside Turkey — are attracted to his power. Once out of his palace, he may find himself very much alone, a shriveled and confused figure like Saddam Hussein at his own trial.
I make no predictions, but given rising discord in Turkey as well as the likelihood that the Turkish military would suffer no significant consequence should it imitate Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s game plan in Egypt, no one should be surprised if Turkey’s rocky politics soon get rockier.
In a lot of places a coup is a bad thing but for Turkey this is more of a reset back to their secular state. It has happened a few times over the years & hopefully will sort the autocratic Islamist stuff that happened under Erdogan.
Apparently Erdogan is trying for asylum in Germany, hope they tell him to get stuffed.
Apparently Erdogan is trying for asylum in Germany, hope they tell him to get stuffed.
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