something afoot in Turkey?

[Likes Fast Cars]

Cobnapint said:

ooid said:

Almost 11 years ago, quite steamy saturday evening in Istanbul, me and my ex-girlfriend were not allowed to enter to this night club (Reina?) as we did not have any reservation I was gobsmacked about their intense security guards in the door, quite shocking and sad to see this actually happened.

It's not unusual, is it, not being let into a nightclub if your names 'not on the list'.

Especially at Reina. It's a real celebrity hang-out, one those where a bottle of vodka costs you US$1000 and you need to buy the bottle of booze on the table to stand at the table.

Was very popular when the Turkish F1 race came to town, always the place to "be seen".

[brickwall]

CrutyRammers said:

FFS. I went to turkey a few years back, a bit out of the touristy bit, and thought I could happily go again as there was so much to see. But it'll be a long time before I risk going there again now, what a clusterfk.

Wholly agree.

[Robertj21a]

brickwall said:

Wholly agree.

Yes, agree unfortunately. A great shame as I enjoy Istanbul, but there's no point in risking your life for it.

[Guvernator]

The problem is nearly everyone else feels the same, tourism is down over 50% this year and it's one of Turkey's main income streams. The economy is rocking and only being propped up by smoke and mirrors as the media so far aren't being allowed to report how bad things are and Erdogan is getting some of his Arab friends to pump money into the economy. However if it fails and a recessions hits things could get very sticky.

People are happy to follow Erdogan as he has been in power during a time of relative prosperity for Turkey, in fact quiet a few people have got very rich off the massive property building boom but if the economy goes sour, that boom will collapse. People are usually happy with the status quo when they are getting rich but quick to change allegiance when their actual livelyhood is on the line. Interesting times ahead, I reckon 2017 will be the make or break year for Turkey.

[Robertj21a]

Guvernator said:

The problem is nearly everyone else feels the same, tourism is down over 50% this year and it's one of Turkey's main income streams. The economy is rocking and only being propped up by smoke and mirrors as the media so far aren't being allowed to report how bad things are and Erdogan is getting some of his Arab friends to pump money into the economy. However if it fails and a recessions hits things could get very sticky.

People are happy to follow Erdogan as he has been in power during a time of relative prosperity for Turkey, in fact quiet a few people have got very rich off the massive property building boom but if the economy goes sour, that boom will collapse. People are usually happy with the status quo when they are getting rich but quick to change allegiance when their actual livelyhood is on the line. Interesting times ahead, I reckon 2017 will be the make or break year for Turkey.

The hotels and restaurants in Istanbul are down by far more than 50%. I gather that only about 25% capacity is filled by foreign tourists, with a bit more topped up by Turks from other areas.

[RYH64E]

We've ruled out Turkey for this year's holiday, and Egypt, and Tunisia, though in reality there's just as likely to be a terrorist attack in France, Spain or Italy. Terrorists can and do travel... My wife is taking the opportunity to look further afield, Mauritius is currently favourite, I'd happily have a UK based holiday but past experience would suggest that unless we've got something exotic booked I tend to keep working one way or another, I didn't get a holiday at all last year.

[ooid]

B'stard Child said:

Not sure why you'd want to go to a nightclub with an ex-girlfriend - seems like a daft thing to do

I'm definitely getting your permission on what kind of activities to do with my ex or currents, next time. Apologies sir

Likes Fast Cars said:

Especially at Reina. It's a real celebrity hang-out, one those where a bottle of vodka costs you US$1000 and you need to buy the bottle of booze on the table to stand at the table.

Yes, probably it was. It looked like a quite nice place near bosphorus had loads of lounge and restaurants inside so wanted to gave a shot but it was pretty tight in terms of security.

RYH64E said:

We've ruled out Turkey for this year's holiday, and Egypt, and Tunisia, though in reality there's just as likely to be a terrorist attack in France, Spain or Italy.

st happens everywhere, but you are right. I've mostly ruled out anything beyond Greece for the last 6 years. My fav. spots just became Menorca and Ibiza, convenient and offers full-sun exposure

[B'stard Child]

ooid said:

B'stard Child said:

Not sure why you'd want to go to a nightclub with an ex-girlfriend - seems like a daft thing to do

I'm definitely getting your permission on what kind of activities to do with my ex or currents, next time. Apologies sir

Oh no permissions needed from me - your funeral at the end of the day

[Likes Fast Cars]

Guvernator said:

..... Erdogan is getting some of his Arab friends to pump money into the economy. However if it fails and a recessions hits things could get very sticky.

......in fact quiet a few people have got very rich off the massive property building boom but if the economy goes sour, that boom will collapse. People are usually happy with the status quo when they are getting rich but quick to change allegiance when their actual livelyhood is on the line. Interesting times ahead, I reckon 2017 will be the make or break year for Turkey.

Construction which is completely throttling Istanbul - a total sthole these days.

You're right about the status quo and getting rich (see my earlier comments today) this is one giant bubble about to burst in more ways than one.

[ooid]

Likes Fast Cars said:

Construction which is completely throttling Istanbul - a total sthole these days.

You're right about the status quo and getting rich (see my earlier comments today) this is one giant bubble about to burst in more ways than one.

Construction throttles in countries like TR, no matter what. No offense, I have no relation or big information about this country at all but I've worked on many projects in similar countries, where population just massively increases as there is literally no proper place for decent homes or public spaces. Even Egypt, Lebanon, I think there is still massive construction work going-on. A few London architectural offices have been designing loads of buildings in even northern Iraq despite the security issues. Many of these countries also do not have concrete contractual experience on big infrastructural projects where corruption might happen so easily so they are always absorbing new projects from European or American companies.

In all honesty, I do not really know any big architectural practice in London can solely survive from only U.K. or european business. They are heavily relying on asian, middle east and recently some american projects. (Uncle sam loves buildings when the economy is right, but with any small volatility they can stop all at once) - See some of the recent big Silicon Valley commissions, all done by London practices (Apple campus, Google HQ maybe Tesla next?)

[Guvernator]

Last time I was in Istanbul you literally couldn't move for half constructed buildings, big developments and building cranes, they are EVERYWHERE. They literally build them everywhere, not so great an idea considering Istanbul sits bang on a major faultline and they have a big quake every decade or so!

Plus construction is great during boom times, everyone involved gets rich but as soon as a recession hits Turkey, construction is one of the first areas that get hit the hardest and I reckon a recession is almost an inevitability at this point. Tourism almost wiped out, a personal credit debt crisis which makes the UK's 1990 debt crisis look like child play and civil unrest bordering on civil war. Like I said, this year isn't going to be pretty for many in Turkey. The only light I can possibly see is that a recession may force Erdogan out.

[Likes Fast Cars]

The price of the newly constructed homes make no sense, there is a major glut of properties which have been for sale for months / years due to unrealistic expectations of the vendors. Unaffordable for the average - and not so average - Turk. Combine this situation with the geo-political risks the recipe for an economic disaster is there.

[Guvernator]

Likes Fast Cars said:

The price of the newly constructed homes make no sense, there is a major glut of properties which have been for sale for months / years due to unrealistic expectations of the vendors. Unaffordable for the average - and not so average - Turk. Combine this situation with the geo-political risks the recipe for an economic disaster is there.

Agreed, the recent trend of trying to sell "luxury" apartments for a million lira plus (about £250k), which is absurd as it's about 500 x the average Turkish salary and makes the unaffordable house prices in the UK look positively tame in comparative terms, has mostly been fuelled by selling them to the Russians, Arabs and those Turks fortunate enough to have done very well out of the corrupt Erdogan regime.

No one else in the country has a chance in hell of affording them but with foreign investors being scared off by all the trouble, I expect the glut of empty houses to get even worse which will soon get those constructors who were doing rather well by greasing Erdogans pockets and riding his coat-tails in financial difficulty.

[Likes Fast Cars]

Guvernator said:

Likes Fast Cars said:

The price of the newly constructed homes make no sense, there is a major glut of properties which have been for sale for months / years due to unrealistic expectations of the vendors. Unaffordable for the average - and not so average - Turk. Combine this situation with the geo-political risks the recipe for an economic disaster is there.

Agreed, the recent trend of trying to sell "luxury" apartments for a million lira plus (about £250k), which is absurd as it's about 500 x the average Turkish salary and makes the unaffordable house prices in the UK look positively tame in comparative terms, has mostly been fuelled by selling them to the Russians, Arabs and those Turks fortunate enough to have done very well out of the corrupt Erdogan regime.

No one else in the country has a chance in hell of affording them but with foreign investors being scared off by all the trouble, I expect the glut of empty houses to get even worse which will soon get those constructors who were doing rather well by greasing Erdogans pockets and riding his coat-tails in financial difficulty.

We can only hope they hit the buffers soon.
BTW: Try 2Mn lira starting price these days... ridiculous!

[Guvernator]

Another attack yesterday, this time a car bomb on a courthouse. Luckily the worst of it was averted thanks to the bravery of a policeman who spotted the suspicious behavior and tried to take on the terrorists. Unfortunately he was killed but he did manage to stop them from getting the car bomb close enough to do any real damage.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/izm...

Weirdly enough it appears there are signs of a real backlash from the populace now, a lot of the Turkish news channels are now openly blaming Erdogan for the current situation, something that would have been unheard of even a few months ago. Social media is also rife with people blaming the Governments policies for the mess they are currently in. I'm hoping this is the beginning of the end for Erdogan, unfortunately I don't think he is the type of person who will go down without a fight, this could get messy!