Tesla Master Plan part deux

[Tonsko]

Timely article on autonomous driving: http://arstechnica.co.uk/cars/2016/07/federal-regu...

[Jader1973]

technodup said:

As it is I think they're most of the way there for most people. It's just that some people as on this thread seem to want the right to drive a mythical 700kms whenever they feel like it (which is never, but I still might one day bla bla).

I used to live in England, my parents live in Scotland. It was 600 km one way to visit them. I used to leave my house with a full tank, stop for 10 mins for a break in the Lake District, and then get there with about an 1/8th of a tank left. Hardly mythical.

Now I live in Aus. The distances here are massive - my sister in law lives 200km away, and that is regarded as fairly close! Down here a car with a range of only 300km is regarded as useless by a huge portion of the population. I suspect the US will be similar.

Range is a huge hurdle for them to overcome and until there is a fast charging station in every town the has a petrol station that will remain the case. in fact in Aus you'd need charging stations in places that don't currently have them given the distances.

[Some Gump]

The current charging network does fine because ev's are a little niche, and one that mostly stays quite local at that.

If anyone watched the thoughput of a motorway forecourt, just saw how many cars pass though in an hour. How big would the car park need to be even with impressive 20 min charges?

..and there's still battery longevity. I've seen no evidence to support that li-ion batteries don't fall over. The marketeers can say 5 years warranty all they like - they use a caveat of 30% performance drop, the huge majority of current ev early adopters do tiny miles anyway, and car manufacturers have form for allowing dangerous designs to linger as long as the expected damages payout is lower than the cost of a recall.

I really hope that one day battery tech is better, but IMO to constantly claim it is fine now is a sign that you just like ev's enough to overlook their faults. Not trying to strawman - if people weren't capable of prioritising one thing over a list of faults, we'd not have the caterham 7

[otolith]

Yet Australian commuting distances are modest.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-09/commuting...

I can see new business models facilitating longer distance travel - whether hire of ICE vehicles or relay services.

[RobDickinson]

Jader1973 said:

I used to live in England, my parents live in Scotland. It was 600 km one way to visit them. I used to leave my house with a full tank, stop for 10 mins for a break in the Lake District, and then get there with about an 1/8th of a tank left. Hardly mythical.

Now I live in Aus. The distances here are massive - my sister in law lives 200km away, and that is regarded as fairly close! Down here a car with a range of only 300km is regarded as useless by a huge portion of the population. I suspect the US will be similar.

Range is a huge hurdle for them to overcome and until there is a fast charging station in every town the has a petrol station that will remain the case. in fact in Aus you'd need charging stations in places that don't currently have them given the distances.

How often do you visit your sil?


Most Ozzies live in big cities, and commute short distances I bet. I'm always amazed when I visit how big the country is and how few people are outside the main centres.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/australian-moter...

Says average yearly distance is 15500kms so thats 42km a day or so.

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2015/files/is_07...

• On a place of residence basis, Australia’s average commuting distance was 15.6 km.
• The average commuting distances for the rest of the state are generally higher than the corresponding metropolitan areas.
• The larger capital cities had relatively long commutes—Sydney’s average was 15.0 km, Melbourne’s was 14.6 km, and Brisbane’s was 14.9 km, Perth’s was 14.9 km and Adelaide’s was 12.4 km. Smaller capital cities’ average commuting distance was shorter—Hobart’s was 11.5 km, Darwin was 12.3 km and the ACT was 11.5 km—reflecting the smaller urban footprint.
• The average commuting distance of residents of the major cities can be grouped into four ranges:
o 9–12 km: Townsville, Cairns, Launceston, Albury–Wodonga, Toowoomba and Canberra– Queanbeyan.
o 12–14 km: Bendigo, Darwin, Adelaide, Ballarat, Hobart
o 14–15 km: Melbourne, Brisbane, Geelong, Perth, Sydney
o 15–20 km: Newcastle-Maitland, Gold Coast–Tweed Heads, Sunshine Coast, Mackay and Wollongong.


Also over 50% of Australian households have 2 or more cars.
http://profile.id.com.au/australia/car-ownership

Edited by RobDickinson on Sunday 24th July 02:08

[DukeDickson]

Impasse said:

Unfortunately I fear any progress will soon begin to dwindle as Musk loses his focus. He's been spending a lot of time with Amber Heard recently. Distracted and skint within five years.

If you're a dollar behind, or even ahead, in five years & you've done the business with Amber, I'll be first in the queue to shake your hand.

Some of it is the will of a wealthy man, some of it is somewhere between visionary and mentalist and some is going to take things a little bit further than it was.
The interesting thing for me is why doesn't something like Honda or Toyota really push their alternatives, rather than doing robots and the like.

[Impasse]

davepoth said:

Probably not, as it happens. The particulars of electric motors make them rather well suited to goods haulage - for example, double up the drivetrain of the Model S P85D and it's more powerful in terms of both HP and torque than the top of the line Mercedes Benz Actros tractor unit. All up, a pair of P85Ds would weigh about 4 tonnes, and a Mercedes Actros is about 10 tonnes. 6 tonnes of battery would get you a very long way.

I have to ask the question of when would the batteries be recharged? Do drivers take long enough mandatory breaks to allow the recharging 6 tonnes of battery?

[AW111]

DukeDickson said:

<snip>
The interesting thing for me is why doesn't something like Honda or Toyota really push their alternatives, rather than doing robots and the like.

EV's require a lot less servicing. This is a problem for manufacturers, who get a fair bit of their income from the service side of the business.

[AW111]

RobDickinson said:

How often do you visit your sil?


Most Ozzies live in big cities, and commute short distances I bet. I'm always amazed when I visit how big the country is and how few people are outside the main centres.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/australian-moter...

Says average yearly distance is 15500kms so thats 42km a day or so.

https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2015/files/is_07...

• On a place of residence basis, Australia’s average commuting distance was 15.6 km.
• The average commuting distances for the rest of the state are generally higher than the corresponding metropolitan areas.
• The larger capital cities had relatively long commutes—Sydney’s average was 15.0 km, Melbourne’s was 14.6 km, and Brisbane’s was 14.9 km, Perth’s was 14.9 km and Adelaide’s was 12.4 km. Smaller capital cities’ average commuting distance was shorter—Hobart’s was 11.5 km, Darwin was 12.3 km and the ACT was 11.5 km—reflecting the smaller urban footprint.
• The average commuting distance of residents of the major cities can be grouped into four ranges:
o 9–12 km: Townsville, Cairns, Launceston, Albury–Wodonga, Toowoomba and Canberra– Queanbeyan.
o 12–14 km: Bendigo, Darwin, Adelaide, Ballarat, Hobart
o 14–15 km: Melbourne, Brisbane, Geelong, Perth, Sydney
o 15–20 km: Newcastle-Maitland, Gold Coast–Tweed Heads, Sunshine Coast, Mackay and Wollongong.


Also over 50% of Australian households have 2 or more cars.
http://profile.id.com.au/australia/car-ownership

Edited by RobDickinson on Sunday 24th July 02:08

I am an Autralian, and have lived and worked in Melbourne for most of my life. The longest regular commute I have had was about 25 km each way. Also worth noting that most of us have off-street parking, so charging at home would be easy.
My mother lives about 250 km away, so that's quite feasible with current EV technology.

For the 10% of the population that live in the country it's a different matter. When I did, it was a 1000 km trip to visit my parents. Current EVs are not suitable for that task, but it's a small niche.


It always surprises me the distance many Britons commute, and the number of hours they are prepared to spend doing so. Most people I know would consider 45 minutes a longish commute, and anything over an hour ridiculous.

[technodup]

Jader1973 said:

technodup said:

As it is I think they're most of the way there for most people. It's just that some people as on this thread seem to want the right to drive a mythical 700kms whenever they feel like it (which is never, but I still might one day bla bla).

I used to live in England, my parents live in Scotland. It was 600 km one way to visit them. I used to leave my house with a full tank, stop for 10 mins for a break in the Lake District, and then get there with about an 1/8th of a tank left. Hardly mythical.

See the bit where I said I think they're most of the way there for most people? Not for every outlier?

Most journeys are short. Most commutes are short. Of course some people do longer distances but they don't need to solve 100% of the journeys from the start. Plus, as someone alluded to above we're looking at this through existing norms, i.e. everyone has a car they use exclusively. I'd guess this model will change somewhat in future, be it car sharing, pooling, hire, links with trains or whatever.

I live in Glasgow. I could take a car to the station, get on a train to London and pick up another car there. I'd probably get there quicker, probably more safely, definitely more relaxed, I could use the time productively and it might not even cost any more. I don't see any real benefit in driving the whole way. Most people aren't car enthusiasts and don't enjoy commuting or long tedious motorway journeys. It's not such a stretch to imagine they'll be a thing of the past in the not too distant future.

[98elise]

Some Gump said:

The current charging network does fine because ev's are a little niche, and one that mostly stays quite local at that.

If anyone watched the thoughput of a motorway forecourt, just saw how many cars pass though in an hour. How big would the car park need to be even with impressive 20 min charges?

..and there's still battery longevity. I've seen no evidence to support that li-ion batteries don't fall over. The marketeers can say 5 years warranty all they like - they use a caveat of 30% performance drop, the huge majority of current ev early adopters do tiny miles anyway, and car manufacturers have form for allowing dangerous designs to linger as long as the expected damages payout is lower than the cost of a recall.

I really hope that one day battery tech is better, but IMO to constantly claim it is fine now is a sign that you just like ev's enough to overlook their faults. Not trying to strawman - if people weren't capable of prioritising one thing over a list of faults, we'd not have the caterham 7

Most people charge at home. If you could fill up you petrol car at home why wouln't you.

Battery warranty on the tesla is 8 years, and older tesla's are now 8 years. Hybrids have ben around for a lot longer than that. None of them have battery failure concerns. Early if needed hybrid battery packs can be refurbed for a few hundred pounds.

Many tesla model s EV's are now passing the 100k miles point. I do 30k miles a year and am buying a model 3.

[98elise]

Jader1973 said:

technodup said:

As it is I think they're most of the way there for most people. It's just that some people as on this thread seem to want the right to drive a mythical 700kms whenever they feel like it (which is never, but I still might one day bla bla).

I used to live in England, my parents live in Scotland. It was 600 km one way to visit them. I used to leave my house with a full tank, stop for 10 mins for a break in the Lake District, and then get there with about an 1/8th of a tank left. Hardly mythical.

Now I live in Aus. The distances here are massive - my sister in law lives 200km away, and that is regarded as fairly close! Down here a car with a range of only 300km is regarded as useless by a huge portion of the population. I suspect the US will be similar.

Range is a huge hurdle for them to overcome and until there is a fast charging station in every town the has a petrol station that will remain the case. in fact in Aus you'd need charging stations in places that don't currently have them given the distances.

Then possibly a pure EV is not for you. Its no different to saying 2 seater sports cars are pointless me because I have 2 kids, yet I own 2!

EV is just another powertrain another option, not a 1 size fits all solution. For me the range will be no issue, and for my daily driver a simple, yet powerful car is perfect.

[eccles]

technodup said:

ee the bit where I said I think they're most of the way there for most people? Not for every outlier?

Most journeys are short. Most commutes are short. Of course some people do longer distances but they don't need to solve 100% of the journeys from the start. Plus, as someone alluded to above we're looking at this through existing norms, i.e. everyone has a car they use exclusively. I'd guess this model will change somewhat in future, be it car sharing, pooling, hire, links with trains or whatever.

I live in Glasgow. I could take a car to the station, get on a train to London and pick up another car there. I'd probably get there quicker, probably more safely, definitely more relaxed, I could use the time productively and it might not even cost any more. I don't see any real benefit in driving the whole way. Most people aren't car enthusiasts and don't enjoy commuting or long tedious motorway journeys. It's not such a stretch to imagine they'll be a thing of the past in the not too distant future.

That's the thing though,at the moment owning your own vehicle gives you the freedom to travel where you want, when you want. That's the attraction of car ownership.
All the this talk of driving to a train station etc is putting you at the mercy of public transport and removing the freedom that so many like. Not many people do that now with petrol cars, so why would they suddenly choose to do it just because the car is electric?
If there wasn't a huge jump in car sharing/pooling when fuel prices were at their peak, I really can't see it being hugely popular just because the car is electric. It's back to that freedom thing again. People don't just commute.Just need to nip out to the shops/ Nip out to see a mate/ pretty much anything spur of the moment where having to book the communal car will be a pain.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of electric cars, and should the price came down and the life of batteries dramatically improve, I'd have one in a heartbeat, but I really think you're overestimating the speed at which people will adapt.
For many it's the old chicken and egg scenario (just like LPG for cars), until there is a huge network of charging points, they'll just wait it out.

[RobDickinson]

eccles said:

why would they suddenly choose to do it just because the car is electric?

Not because its electric.

Because its self driving, convenient and cheaper.

If instead of using your own car you just step outside and into a fleet car and it takes you where you want, just like what your own self driving car would do, where is the difference?

If its functionally the same as owning one, but without the hassle and expense, who would choose to own one?

[eccles]

RobDickinson said:

eccles said:

why would they suddenly choose to do it just because the car is electric?

Not because its electric.

Because its self driving, convenient and cheaper.

If instead of using your own car you just step outside and into a fleet car and it takes you where you want, just like what your own self driving car would do, where is the difference?

If its functionally the same as owning one, but without the hassle and expense, who would choose to own one?

You're saying we'll all get out own car, others are saying we'll be car sharing/pooling. That's the point my comments were addressed at. Context is everything.

[Some Gump]

Impasse said:

davepoth said:

Probably not, as it happens. The particulars of electric motors make them rather well suited to goods haulage - for example, double up the drivetrain of the Model S P85D and it's more powerful in terms of both HP and torque than the top of the line Mercedes Benz Actros tractor unit. All up, a pair of P85Ds would weigh about 4 tonnes, and a Mercedes Actros is about 10 tonnes. 6 tonnes of battery would get you a very long way.

I have to ask the question of when would the batteries be recharged? Do drivers take long enough mandatory breaks to allow the recharging 6 tonnes of battery?

Loving the man maths!! I'm not sure that the 6 ton difference between the them is all turbodiesel..

[Tonsko]

Couldn't it be both? Do it, or not, albeit with a financial incentive if you do opt in.

[RobDickinson]

Some Gump said:

Impasse said:

davepoth said:

Probably not, as it happens. The particulars of electric motors make them rather well suited to goods haulage - for example, double up the drivetrain of the Model S P85D and it's more powerful in terms of both HP and torque than the top of the line Mercedes Benz Actros tractor unit. All up, a pair of P85Ds would weigh about 4 tonnes, and a Mercedes Actros is about 10 tonnes. 6 tonnes of battery would get you a very long way.

I have to ask the question of when would the batteries be recharged? Do drivers take long enough mandatory breaks to allow the recharging 6 tonnes of battery?

Loving the man maths!! I'm not sure that the 6 ton difference between the them is all turbodiesel..

I attended a talk by the guy from wrightspeed, by Ian Wright, one of the founders of Tesla back in the day. He was pretty adamant that an EV truck ( semi US speak) wasnt going to work, even wqith his range extender tech.

Trucks need a lot of constant power, a car usually doesnt. battery requirements are huge.

[Sylvaforever]

AW111 said:

EV's require a lot less servicing. This is a problem for manufacturers, who get a fair bit of their income from the service side of the business.

spot on.this is the big winner for me, of course if your in the lease whirlpool its different you just change it when it's 50-75% worn out!

Edited by Sylvaforever on Sunday 24th July 10:38

[Jader1973]

RobDickinson said:

eccles said:

why would they suddenly choose to do it just because the car is electric?

Not because its electric.

Because its self driving, convenient and cheaper.

If instead of using your own car you just step outside and into a fleet car and it takes you where you want, just like what your own self driving car would do, where is the difference?

If its functionally the same as owning one, but without the hassle and expense, who would choose to own one?

Getting a taxi is "functionally the same" as owning a car. Last time I looked there were a lot more private cars on the road than taxis.

And where do all these self-driving BEVs charge and park? Take a town of say 10,000 people half of which are legally allowed to use a hired BEV (and that is a whole other legal minefield yet to be looked at). Is there a huge 5,000 space multi-storey charging station in the town centre so none of them ever have to wait for a BEV taxi?

If there isn't and people do have to wait, either for a free one or a charged one, then it is not functionally the same as stepping out your front door and getting in your own car.

People have grown accustomed to being able to go where they want when they want in their own personal status symbol over the last 70 years. That is not going to change any time soon.