Tesla Master Plan part deux

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Discussion

RobDickinson

Original Poster:

31,343 posts

253 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
Jonesy23 said:
Some people remain convinced Musk is a genius. I'm not so sure.
He is worth $12bn, he lands rockets. He has the single largest factory in the world , producing batteries.

But you doubt him, and his strategy.

I guess you have done better?

EricE

1,945 posts

128 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
I thought about this a while ago.
Once cars are fully autonomous I could see a future where we have small 10-seat busses with 5 completely separate compartments, each with its own door.

One would call them like an Uber and it would pick up and drop off people along its custom route, all calculated and controlled by smart algorithms that would match people with similar routes to the same "bus".
Essentially mix of public and private transport, bus and taxi. I think it would scale pretty well too, the more mini-busses on the road the better the matching of routes.

I suppose if PHers have their way my first route would be straight to the loony bin. silly

Jonesy23

4,650 posts

135 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
He is worth $12bn, he lands rockets. He has the single largest factory in the world , producing batteries.

But you doubt him, and his strategy.

I guess you have done better?
Usual appeal to authority argument.

His net worth is debatable and mostly based on overvalued shares not actual cash income unlike some mining types I know (for example).

His rockets land. Occasionally in one piece. He neither designed nor built them himself so just being the boss doesn't gain him much credit.

He is in the process of building a factory. With Panasonic. Using their designs and tech. Actually building a big factory is not exactly a great leap of thinking especially when it's other people's money, design and product.


TEKNOPUG

18,843 posts

204 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
Where is all the electricity coming from to power this bright new future?

Digga

40,206 posts

282 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
TEKNOPUG said:
Where is all the electricity coming from to power this bright new future?
There's always one (practical) bd comes along and spoils things.

wink

RobDickinson

Original Poster:

31,343 posts

253 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
TEKNOPUG said:
Where is all the electricity coming from to power this bright new future?
Hopefully fusion...

Though where I live all my power is hydro so....

snotrag

14,446 posts

210 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
Some Gump said:
Reduced mechanical needs? Not seeing it. The "go" part of a car is just one part - you still have the (often much more unreliable) detail of suspension, brakes and all the electro wizardry in the dash. If you do reduce mechanics, expect to add more techs to work on the electric bits
Electric Vehicles are much less maintenance intensive thant regular vehicles. An internal combustion engine is far and away the most complex part of a regular car. Service and maintenance on a ground up EV can be greatly simplified.

Some Gump said:
Oh, and the minor point - current cars last 15-20 years easy. How many lithium ion batteries get past 5?
There is strong evidence to suggest that batteries in EV's are well capable of lasting considerably longer than this with good results.


To qualify my statements - I am a Design & Reliability engineer for a company that manufactures and sells electric vehicles. So I'm not just guessing!

TEKNOPUG

18,843 posts

204 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
Digga said:
TEKNOPUG said:
Where is all the electricity coming from to power this bright new future?
There's always one (practical) bd comes along and spoils things.

wink
As the demand for oil will plummet, along with the price, I can only assume that oil burning power stations will become financially attractive and will make up the massive shortfall in electricity production?

RobDickinson

Original Poster:

31,343 posts

253 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
Generating electricity is a separate problem, one we need to solve, regardless of whats powering cars.

TEKNOPUG

18,843 posts

204 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
TEKNOPUG said:
Where is all the electricity coming from to power this bright new future?
Hopefully fusion...

Though where I live all my power is hydro so....
I'd suggest that spending your $12bn on achieving commercial nuclear fusion would be better than developing vehicles that depend upon the former.

TEKNOPUG

18,843 posts

204 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
Generating electricity is a separate problem, one we need to solve, regardless of whats powering cars.
True but you are actively increasing the demand for something that is still a problem. I'm sure someone brighter than me and with more time on their hands, could calculate the amount of electricity required to charge the 35m vehicles in the UK each night and therefore how many new generators would require to be constructed.

RobDickinson

Original Poster:

31,343 posts

253 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
TEKNOPUG said:
True but you are actively increasing the demand for something that is still a problem. I'm sure someone brighter than me and with more time on their hands, could calculate the amount of electricity required to charge the 35m vehicles in the UK each night and therefore how many new generators would require to be constructed.
Just the energy cost to refine and transport vehicle fuel would cover most peoples daily trips. Not every car will need fully recharging every day either..

TEKNOPUG

18,843 posts

204 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
TEKNOPUG said:
True but you are actively increasing the demand for something that is still a problem. I'm sure someone brighter than me and with more time on their hands, could calculate the amount of electricity required to charge the 35m vehicles in the UK each night and therefore how many new generators would require to be constructed.
Just the energy cost to refine and transport vehicle fuel would cover most peoples daily trips. Not every car will need fully recharging every day either..
That's energy that is being produced by burning fossil fuels though. So rather than refining and transporting fuel to power cars, we'll just burn that fuel in power stations to produce electrity to power cars?

Jader1973

3,942 posts

199 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
RobDickinson said:
Supercharger can get a tesla to 80% in 30min, not too bad for now for a 300km range.
I can refuel my car in 5 minutes and then have a 700km range. Amazing isn't it! I can also drive it wherever I want and am highly likely be able to find someplace to fill it up (in 5 minutes). Truely awesome tech!

As per an earlier post in this thread, I read an article about the new E Class today: the tech in it is truely amazing and way ahead of anything Tesla has.

They also aren't pushing the "look it can drive itself" angle, probably because they (and every other established manufacturer) know how dangerous it is due to the immature tech something Tesla seem happy to ignore.

JD

2,769 posts

227 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
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Jader1973 said:
They also aren't pushing the "look it can drive itself" angle,



EricE

1,945 posts

128 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
TEKNOPUG said:
True but you are actively increasing the demand for something that is still a problem. I'm sure someone brighter than me and with more time on their hands, could calculate the amount of electricity required to charge the 35m vehicles in the UK each night and therefore how many new generators would require to be constructed.
I can't help you with the UK but I happen to have a pamphlet for Austria on my desk.
If 20% of all cars here were to switch to electricity today, the increase in yearly power consumption would be 3%.
The total increase in power consumption per year is 1.5-3%.

source: e-mobility pamphlet by my power company hehe

The numbers surprised me. I suspect it's the top 10% of all drivers that would cause an disproportional increase.

TEKNOPUG

18,843 posts

204 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
85Kwh battery

20Kwh daily charge

35,000,000 vehicles

= 700,000,000Kwh

= 700,000Mwh

= 700Gwh daily demand

Current UK daily demand = 35Gwh....

Edited by TEKNOPUG on Thursday 21st July 11:19

Halb

53,012 posts

182 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
...oh...


As soon as I saw the title, I thought of this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teleforce

Jader1973

3,942 posts

199 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
JD said:
Jader1973 said:
They also aren't pushing the "look it can drive itself" angle,
Hadn't seen that biggrin

At least they aren't referring to "Autopilot".

JD

2,769 posts

227 months

Thursday 21st July 2016
quotequote all
TEKNOPUG said:
85Kwh battery

20Kwh daily charge

35,000,000 vehicles

= 700,000,000Kwh

= 700,000Mwh

= 700Gwh daily demand

Current UK daily demand = 35Gwh....

Edited by TEKNOPUG on Thursday 21st July 11:19
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-28546589

Using average mileage 9000 miles

@3 miles/kWh = 3000kWh a year per vehicle

8.2 kWh a day per vehicle

35m vehicles is 287,671,232 kWh

= 287gWh a day

Average grid demand of 12gW over the course of a day.