Tesla Master Plan part deux
Discussion
I thought about this a while ago.
Once cars are fully autonomous I could see a future where we have small 10-seat busses with 5 completely separate compartments, each with its own door.
One would call them like an Uber and it would pick up and drop off people along its custom route, all calculated and controlled by smart algorithms that would match people with similar routes to the same "bus".
Essentially mix of public and private transport, bus and taxi. I think it would scale pretty well too, the more mini-busses on the road the better the matching of routes.
I suppose if PHers have their way my first route would be straight to the loony bin.
Once cars are fully autonomous I could see a future where we have small 10-seat busses with 5 completely separate compartments, each with its own door.
One would call them like an Uber and it would pick up and drop off people along its custom route, all calculated and controlled by smart algorithms that would match people with similar routes to the same "bus".
Essentially mix of public and private transport, bus and taxi. I think it would scale pretty well too, the more mini-busses on the road the better the matching of routes.
I suppose if PHers have their way my first route would be straight to the loony bin.
RobDickinson said:
He is worth $12bn, he lands rockets. He has the single largest factory in the world , producing batteries.
But you doubt him, and his strategy.
I guess you have done better?
Usual appeal to authority argument.But you doubt him, and his strategy.
I guess you have done better?
His net worth is debatable and mostly based on overvalued shares not actual cash income unlike some mining types I know (for example).
His rockets land. Occasionally in one piece. He neither designed nor built them himself so just being the boss doesn't gain him much credit.
He is in the process of building a factory. With Panasonic. Using their designs and tech. Actually building a big factory is not exactly a great leap of thinking especially when it's other people's money, design and product.
Some Gump said:
Reduced mechanical needs? Not seeing it. The "go" part of a car is just one part - you still have the (often much more unreliable) detail of suspension, brakes and all the electro wizardry in the dash. If you do reduce mechanics, expect to add more techs to work on the electric bits
Electric Vehicles are much less maintenance intensive thant regular vehicles. An internal combustion engine is far and away the most complex part of a regular car. Service and maintenance on a ground up EV can be greatly simplified. Some Gump said:
Oh, and the minor point - current cars last 15-20 years easy. How many lithium ion batteries get past 5?
There is strong evidence to suggest that batteries in EV's are well capable of lasting considerably longer than this with good results. To qualify my statements - I am a Design & Reliability engineer for a company that manufactures and sells electric vehicles. So I'm not just guessing!
Digga said:
TEKNOPUG said:
Where is all the electricity coming from to power this bright new future?
There's always one (practical) bd comes along and spoils things.RobDickinson said:
TEKNOPUG said:
Where is all the electricity coming from to power this bright new future?
Hopefully fusion... Though where I live all my power is hydro so....
RobDickinson said:
Generating electricity is a separate problem, one we need to solve, regardless of whats powering cars.
True but you are actively increasing the demand for something that is still a problem. I'm sure someone brighter than me and with more time on their hands, could calculate the amount of electricity required to charge the 35m vehicles in the UK each night and therefore how many new generators would require to be constructed.TEKNOPUG said:
True but you are actively increasing the demand for something that is still a problem. I'm sure someone brighter than me and with more time on their hands, could calculate the amount of electricity required to charge the 35m vehicles in the UK each night and therefore how many new generators would require to be constructed.
Just the energy cost to refine and transport vehicle fuel would cover most peoples daily trips. Not every car will need fully recharging every day either..RobDickinson said:
TEKNOPUG said:
True but you are actively increasing the demand for something that is still a problem. I'm sure someone brighter than me and with more time on their hands, could calculate the amount of electricity required to charge the 35m vehicles in the UK each night and therefore how many new generators would require to be constructed.
Just the energy cost to refine and transport vehicle fuel would cover most peoples daily trips. Not every car will need fully recharging every day either..RobDickinson said:
Supercharger can get a tesla to 80% in 30min, not too bad for now for a 300km range.
I can refuel my car in 5 minutes and then have a 700km range. Amazing isn't it! I can also drive it wherever I want and am highly likely be able to find someplace to fill it up (in 5 minutes). Truely awesome tech!As per an earlier post in this thread, I read an article about the new E Class today: the tech in it is truely amazing and way ahead of anything Tesla has.
They also aren't pushing the "look it can drive itself" angle, probably because they (and every other established manufacturer) know how dangerous it is due to the immature tech something Tesla seem happy to ignore.
TEKNOPUG said:
True but you are actively increasing the demand for something that is still a problem. I'm sure someone brighter than me and with more time on their hands, could calculate the amount of electricity required to charge the 35m vehicles in the UK each night and therefore how many new generators would require to be constructed.
I can't help you with the UK but I happen to have a pamphlet for Austria on my desk. If 20% of all cars here were to switch to electricity today, the increase in yearly power consumption would be 3%.
The total increase in power consumption per year is 1.5-3%.
source: e-mobility pamphlet by my power company
The numbers surprised me. I suspect it's the top 10% of all drivers that would cause an disproportional increase.
TEKNOPUG said:
85Kwh battery
20Kwh daily charge
35,000,000 vehicles
= 700,000,000Kwh
= 700,000Mwh
= 700Gwh daily demand
Current UK daily demand = 35Gwh....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-2854658920Kwh daily charge
35,000,000 vehicles
= 700,000,000Kwh
= 700,000Mwh
= 700Gwh daily demand
Current UK daily demand = 35Gwh....
Edited by TEKNOPUG on Thursday 21st July 11:19
Using average mileage 9000 miles
@3 miles/kWh = 3000kWh a year per vehicle
8.2 kWh a day per vehicle
35m vehicles is 287,671,232 kWh
= 287gWh a day
Average grid demand of 12gW over the course of a day.
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