Tesla Master Plan part deux

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Discussion

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
Hydrogen, relative to battery;

Upside - relatively fast filling. A little more range than current batteries.

Downside - inherently very energy inefficient compared to batteries. Lack of hydrogen infrastructure versus battery vehicles which can be charged anywhere with a power outlet.

Same - they're both electric vehicles, if you don't like that idea. There will be no hydrogen cars with internal combustion engines, that would be insanity. They both have the same underlying energy supply issue. We can make hydrogen from fossil fuels, but that gets us nowhere better than where we are now. To make clean, sustainable hydrogen by electrolysis of water we would need to solve the same electricity generation challenges that face the adoption of battery electric vehicles - except that we'd need a lot more energy because they are less efficient.

Summary - you have a choice of electric vehicles. One is battery powered, can be charged overnight at home or at your destination or in half an hour at a supercharger or similar, for a current range of 300-ish miles. The other is hydrogen powered. It can be charged somewhat more quickly, for a current range of 400-ish miles, but you can't charge it at home, you have to find a fuel station with hydrogen, and the cost of fuelling it will be considerably higher.

You'd really choose the hydrogen car?

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
Jonesy23 said:
Maybe try something like the possibility of the fuel dissipating with no home option to top up (unlike a battery) or the relatively poor performance of hydrogen fuelled engines while you still get the size/complexity/noise issues of an ICE.
Any hydrogen vehicles will be electric with fuel cells. The idea of swallowing all of that inefficiency in the production, compression, transport and storage of hydrogen and then burning it in something as woefully inefficient as an ICE is nuts.

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
otolith said:
Any hydrogen vehicles will be electric with fuel cells. The idea of swallowing all of that inefficiency in the production, compression, transport and storage of hydrogen and then burning it in something as woefully inefficient as an ICE is nuts.
You seem to know a lot on this subject, so, whats the efficiency difference between ICE, and E?

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
On a fuel tank to wheels basis? See table on page 17.

http://environment.yale.edu/gillingham/hydrogenICE...

They appear to be assuming a compression ignition hydrogen ICE running at peak efficiency to run a generator and electric powertrain would give ~40% efficiency vs a fuel cell giving 55%. I think 50% is probably a more realistic fuel cell figure, and < 35% more likely for a compression ignition hydrogen ICE and conventional drivetrain.

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
Sorry, didn't make myself clear. Trying to multitask and Amazon AWS is pissing me off.

Anyway, the question was really efficiency between normal (petrol/diesel) ICE and electric motor in the car.



Jader1973

3,945 posts

199 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
otolith said:
Hydrogen, relative to battery;

Upside - relatively fast filling. A little more range than current batteries.

Downside - inherently very energy inefficient compared to batteries. Lack of hydrogen infrastructure versus battery vehicles which can be charged anywhere with a power outlet.

Same - they're both electric vehicles, if you don't like that idea. There will be no hydrogen cars with internal combustion engines, that would be insanity. They both have the same underlying energy supply issue. We can make hydrogen from fossil fuels, but that gets us nowhere better than where we are now. To make clean, sustainable hydrogen by electrolysis of water we would need to solve the same electricity generation challenges that face the adoption of battery electric vehicles - except that we'd need a lot more energy because they are less efficient.

Summary - you have a choice of electric vehicles. One is battery powered, can be charged overnight at home or at your destination or in half an hour at a supercharger or similar, for a current range of 300-ish miles. The other is hydrogen powered. It can be charged somewhat more quickly, for a current range of 400-ish miles, but you can't charge it at home, you have to find a fuel station with hydrogen, and the cost of fuelling it will be considerably higher.

You'd really choose the hydrogen car?
You're applying current pricing to something that is 20 odd year's away. There is no way the cost of electricity is going to be the same as today if the world relies on it to power the entire transport system. The power companies become the new oil companies.

I agree hydrogen is a non-starter - I don't understand why the Japanese seem fixated on it. I thought Honda were even working on a home hydrogen refuelling system?

Tonsko

6,299 posts

214 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
Great tweet just seen:

“The saddest part about self-driving cars will be all the times the people die mid-trip and then your dinner guests or pizza guy will arrive dead”

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
Jader1973 said:
You're applying current pricing to something that is 20 odd year's away. There is no way the cost of electricity is going to be the same as today if the world relies on it to power the entire transport system. The power companies become the new oil companies.

I agree hydrogen is a non-starter - I don't understand why the Japanese seem fixated on it. I thought Honda were even working on a home hydrogen refuelling system?
Doesn't matter - both the cost of charging a battery vehicle and the cost of buying hydrogen would be linked to the cost of electricity generation because the hydrogen would be manufactured from water using electricity. But because getting energy from power station to wheels via hydrogen (electrolysis, compression, tanker transport, storage, fuel cell) is inherently less efficient than getting it there via grid, battery, it will cost you more.

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
jjlynn27 said:
Sorry, didn't make myself clear. Trying to multitask and Amazon AWS is pissing me off.

Anyway, the question was really efficiency between normal (petrol/diesel) ICE and electric motor in the car.
That's a horribly complicated question, because it depends on the generating mix and what exactly you are trying to compare. So you've got the primary energy, in coal, gas, crude oil, hydro, wind, geothermal, nuclear, whatever. Then you've got the energy cost of getting electricity out of it - prospecting, mining, processing, transporting. Then the efficiency of electrical generation and transmission losses getting it to the charging lead on the car. Then you've got the efficiency of charging the battery, and the efficiency of using it to turn the wheels. On the other hand, you've got similar issues obtaining, refining, processing, transporting liquid road fuel, and then the (terrible) efficiency of turning it into kinetic energy in the engine.

So it's complicated, and there are lots of different estimates, and it will vary depending on your generating mix, and what you are looking at - total energy use, total non-renewable energy use, CO2 emissions, etc.

Someone takes a stab at it here, but there are lots of other attempts to do the same maths with different assumptions;

https://matter2energy.wordpress.com/2013/02/22/wel...



jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
otolith said:
jjlynn27 said:
Sorry, didn't make myself clear. Trying to multitask and Amazon AWS is pissing me off.

Anyway, the question was really efficiency between normal (petrol/diesel) ICE and electric motor in the car.
That's a horribly complicated question, because it depends on the generating mix and what exactly you are trying to compare. So you've got the primary energy, in coal, gas, crude oil, hydro, wind, geothermal, nuclear, whatever. Then you've got the energy cost of getting electricity out of it - prospecting, mining, processing, transporting. Then the efficiency of electrical generation and transmission losses getting it to the charging lead on the car. Then you've got the efficiency of charging the battery, and the efficiency of using it to turn the wheels. On the other hand, you've got similar issues obtaining, refining, processing, transporting liquid road fuel, and then the (terrible) efficiency of turning it into kinetic energy in the engine.

So it's complicated, and there are lots of different estimates, and it will vary depending on your generating mix, and what you are looking at - total energy use, total non-renewable energy use, CO2 emissions, etc.

Someone takes a stab at it here, but there are lots of other attempts to do the same maths with different assumptions;

https://matter2energy.wordpress.com/2013/02/22/wel...
Thanks for taking the time. I'll have a look at that link.

Jader1973

3,945 posts

199 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
I've changed my mind.

I've just seen the Morgan EV3 - I want one!

Tonsko

6,299 posts

214 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
Jader1973 said:
I've changed my mind.

I've just seen the Morgan EV3 - I want one!
Wow. What a beautiful looking little car.

mybrainhurts

90,809 posts

254 months

Monday 25th July 2016
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AnotherClarkey said:
mybrainhurts said:
Big performance, zero soul.

And how many times can it do that before it runs out of puff?
When people start bringing up 'soul' in connection with cars it generally signifies that they have run out of valid arguments.
When people start saying someone has lost the argument because of X, it generally means they have no answer to the question.

Do you really prefer the silence of an electric motor to a screaming V12? How very strange.

Tonsko

6,299 posts

214 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
mybrainhurts said:
When people start saying someone has lost the argument because of X, it generally means they have no answer to the question.

Do you really prefer the silence of an electric motor to a screaming V12? How very strange.
Aren't we seeing this anyway with newer performance metal? Despite having a big powerplant, engine noise is piped into the cabin via the speakers. This doesn't invalidate your point, as it is something I will have to come to terms with, but it's a practice that has already started.

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
mybrainhurts said:
Do you really prefer the silence of an electric motor to a screaming V12? How very strange.
In a luxury car in which perfection is silence? Yes. In a supercar, no.

But that's not the choice. Increasingly the choice will be between electric or four pot diesel.

mybrainhurts

90,809 posts

254 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
98elise said:
Thats like asking why someone that drives a car in on a horse forum.

I love perfromace cars. Last weekend I was driving a 458 on a track, we have 2 sports cars, yet I also own a family car for all the daily stuff I need to do.

I've ordered a tesla to replace my current daily driver. Its quiet, simple, easy to live with and very quick. i will be driving it around 36k miles a year, and hopefully 80% of that will be on autopilot.

It will not diminish my love of perfromance cars one bit. If anything it will make driving for fun more enjoyable.
There won't be any to enjoy when ecofreaks nudge governments into killing them off if EVs sell well.

anonymous-user

53 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
eccles said:
Strange logic you have there.
I can take my diesel estate car and spend 5 minutes filling it up and it's good to go for another 600 miles, how far will a 5 minute charge take an EV?
20 years ago at Uni I did a small design study for a standardised battery pack that you drive over, it knocks the old one out and the new charged one locks in. We envisaged driving into something like a car wash, old battery gets shuffled off to be charged. With a network of EV cars communicating their planned trips and battery states you could 'easily' even predict requirements... Charge times are hardly an insurmountable problem.

mybrainhurts

90,809 posts

254 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
fblm said:
eccles said:
Strange logic you have there.
I can take my diesel estate car and spend 5 minutes filling it up and it's good to go for another 600 miles, how far will a 5 minute charge take an EV?
20 years ago at Uni I did a small design study for a standardised battery pack that you drive over, it knocks the old one out and the new charged one locks in. We envisaged driving into something like a car wash, old battery gets shuffled off to be charged. With a network of EV cars communicating their planned trips and battery states you could 'easily' even predict requirements... Charge times are hardly an insurmountable problem.
Imagine the queues...smile

Beati Dogu

8,862 posts

138 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
It's already possible to rapidly swap the battery on a Tesla:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY

anonymous-user

53 months

Monday 25th July 2016
quotequote all
mybrainhurts said:
Imagine the queues...smile
I'm not sure I understand. Knocking a flat battery out and a charged one in would take seconds. Of course that won't help once the chavs get them and get out to do their weekly shop in the mini mart wink


Beati Dogu said:
It's already possible to rapidly swap the battery on a Tesla:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY
I saw that. Seems like a needlessly complex system to me. Probably because it wasn't designed from the outset for it. If standardised batteries and replacement became the norm it could be done far more efficiently.