Tesla Master Plan part deux

[s2art]

RobDickinson said:

s2art said:

Not anymore it doesnt. A few years ago, maybe.

52.54 gigawatts peak demand last winter (2015)

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploa...

Typical off peak in winter is ~38 gigawatts, summer 28 gigawatts.

Calculated earlier in the thread UK would need ~12 gigawatts per night to power all of its road use at the moment. Looks to me like there is certainly ample grid and generator power.

I think that calculation assumed 24 hours of 12 GW. So the overnight demand (assume 10 hours) would be closer to 30 GW. And there would need to be a margin of reserve.

[RobDickinson]

s2art said:

RobDickinson said:

s2art said:

Not anymore it doesnt. A few years ago, maybe.

52.54 gigawatts peak demand last winter (2015)

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploa...

Typical off peak in winter is ~38 gigawatts, summer 28 gigawatts.

Calculated earlier in the thread UK would need ~12 gigawatts per night to power all of its road use at the moment. Looks to me like there is certainly ample grid and generator power.

I think that calculation assumed 24 hours of 12 GW. So the overnight demand (assume 10 hours) would be closer to 30 GW. And there would need to be a margin of reserve.

Your right I think it was. And some space capacity for peak and maintenance would be needed.

Though its not something new, the UK grid and capacity has been seriously under developed for a long time

[ZX10R NIN]

RobDickinson said:

Percentage of people with a v12, percentage of daily miles that v12 gets used?

vs percentage of 2.0 tdi users and percentage of daily miles.

BEV's are not here to murder your v12, they will slaughter the diesel commuter brigade though.

Slaughter diesels how when I have to drive into Central London (I normally take the motorbike) my 3.0 diesel will return 31mpg (I also travel up north & my diesel will slaughter any EV on those journeys) my petrol will be around 12mpg on my 60 mile round trip, the Smart diesel I used to have would return 42mpg for the week as well being congestion charge exempt it was also £0.00 road tax.

Now to your EV's whilst they don't emit any gasses they certainly aren't as green as they're made out to be especially when you look at what happening in the countries where the Lithium is mined.

I watched an interesting report on Auto Mundial that showed that by the time you took into account the environmental impact of mining Lithium plus the gasses belching from the power stations then an EV was no greener than an ICE car.
I believe EV's have a place as an alternative for those that do very journeys but for anything more an ICE car is the more sensible choice.
The government has also recognised the grid couldn't cope with a big change to EV it's already having to bring an old power station back online to cope with a general increase in demand.

Either that or they'll have to build some new Nuclear Power stations on the outskirts of London somewhere.

So what needs to happen is that you inform the consumer about each one & it's limitations & then let them pick which suits each individual.

[RobDickinson]

It depends where you live and how electricity is generated true.

Where I live its 100% hydro power, so a BEV is massively ahead of any ICE.

In the UK you at least get the benefit of cleaner air where people are trying to breathe, and in general making mass produced power cleaner is easier than millions of cars. And its still more efficient than burning diesel in cars.

The average net energy cost on refining fuel for ICE's is 4-7kwh per gallon. An EV can do 16-20 miles just on the energy you use to refine your ICE fuel. Not including transporting it etc.


As for lithium:
"But most often, lithium is found in briny underground ponds. The liquid is pumped out and left to dry in the sun. The resulting material is made into lithium carbonate and then processed into just lithium. This process accounts for a small part of an electric car's overall environmental impact; the copper and aluminum used in the battery actually do more damage. "

http://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/vehi...


And the life cycle of a BEV - 'Lithium's the Least of Our Problems'

http://www.treehugger.com/cars/life-cycle-analysis...

[otolith]

RobDickinson said:

And the life cycle of a BEV - 'Lithium's the Least of Our Problems'

http://www.treehugger.com/cars/life-cycle-analysis...

Surely not, it's only BEVs that are damaging to make, conventional vehicles are all knitted out of organic hemp with no environmental impact from manufacture, no?

[RobDickinson]

ZX10R NIN said:

Either that or they'll have to build some new Nuclear Power stations on the outskirts of London somewhere

Ultimately the UK is going to need to invest a lot more into nuclear IMO, and in several serious studies. coal and gas will only last so long.

Which nuclear is the interesting bit though, fusion or fission...

[RobDickinson]

This is an interesting website, lets you check (for USA) emission form vehicle types depending on the power generation of the state. Dont know how the UK as a whole compares to the US for renewable generation .

http://www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emiss...

For the US as a whole (33% coal, 32% gas, 20%nuclear) - BEV's are about twice as good as gasoline cars.

[Jader1973]

Talksteer said:

Trucks cannot go more than 220 miles without the driver stopping.

In Europe. I think you'll find the US and Australia will be different.

For example Aus regs state:
In any period of 5.5 hours a driver must not work for more than 5.25 hours.

Given trucks here are 100 km/h limited that is 500km of driving, or 300 miles.

In 11 hours they can work for 10 as long as the break is more than 15 mins at a time. So in theory they could drive 1,000 km (600 miles) without stopping and then have an hour off.

[98elise]

ZX10R NIN said:

RobDickinson said:

Percentage of people with a v12, percentage of daily miles that v12 gets used?

vs percentage of 2.0 tdi users and percentage of daily miles.

BEV's are not here to murder your v12, they will slaughter the diesel commuter brigade though.

Slaughter diesels how when I have to drive into Central London (I normally take the motorbike) my 3.0 diesel will return 31mpg (I also travel up north & my diesel will slaughter any EV on those journeys) my petrol will be around 12mpg on my 60 mile round trip, the Smart diesel I used to have would return 42mpg for the week as well being congestion charge exempt it was also £0.00 road tax.

Now to your EV's whilst they don't emit any gasses they certainly aren't as green as they're made out to be especially when you look at what happening in the countries where the Lithium is mined.

I watched an interesting report on Auto Mundial that showed that by the time you took into account the environmental impact of mining Lithium plus the gasses belching from the power stations then an EV was no greener than an ICE car.
I believe EV's have a place as an alternative for those that do very journeys but for anything more an ICE car is the more sensible choice.
The government has also recognised the grid couldn't cope with a big change to EV it's already having to bring an old power station back online to cope with a general increase in demand.

Either that or they'll have to build some new Nuclear Power stations on the outskirts of London somewhere.

So what needs to happen is that you inform the consumer about each one & it's limitations & then let them pick which suits each individual.

Did the report take into account the environmental impact of oil industry? Or that it that its entirely possible to run an EV from a domestic solar PV installation? Even in the UK we use 25% renewable's for energy, and in some countries its 100%.

Well to wheel EV's are way more efficient that ICE's.

I do 36k per year on the road. I'm buying an eve and it will be more convenient that my ICE as I no longer need to go to a petrol station 3 days a week. I simply plug in at home. I'm already there, and it takes 30 seconds.

[babatunde]

RobDickinson said:

Percentage of people with a v12, percentage of daily miles that v12 gets used?

vs percentage of 2.0 tdi users and percentage of daily miles.

BEV's are not here to murder your v12, they will slaughter the diesel commuter brigade though.

As a petrolhead this is really the only logical observation............ People still ride horses and the horse isn't for most people the most efficient means of transport.

EV's are the future of TRANSPORT, Tesla's only real argument is that it should be sooner rather than later.

[ZX10R NIN]

98elise said:

Did the report take into account the environmental impact of oil industry? Or that it that its entirely possible to run an EV from a domestic solar PV installation? Even in the UK we use 25% renewable's for energy, and in some countries its 100%.

Well to wheel EV's are way more efficient that ICE's.

I do 36k per year on the road. I'm buying an eve and it will be more convenient that my ICE as I no longer need to go to a petrol station 3 days a week. I simply plug in at home. I'm already there, and it takes 30 seconds.

Yes it did which is why they came to the conclusion that EV's are a good alternative but they're not as green as people are being lead to believe, infact they were quite scathing of the oil & motor industry as hydrogen should be being pushed it costs as much to produce as oil is as complicated to build as a hybrid but both industries are being dragging their respective heels as it means an infrastructure (petrol stations to you & I) overhaul & they don't want to do that yet.

I have nothing against EV's as I said they have their place having driven a few Tesla's I'll be the first to say they're a nice relaxing car, the 210-250 mile range irritated me as I hate stopping, so sitting around for 20-30 minutes wasn't for me also I came back with 10 miles range had to shoot straight back out if it had been my only vehicle that wouldn't have been happening.

Solar panels may help but weren't they supposed to cut electricity bills etc & that side of things seems to have died off here in the UK in warmer countries it would make more sense.

As I said at the bottom of my post present the facts warts & all then the individual will make an informed decision on which car is best for their lifestyle like you have, my only grievance is EV's being championed as the green option.

They're doing it already as the number of diesels being sold is dropping as people who do under 12,000 miles a year have realised they don't need a diesel & are now buying petrol/EV's.

It costs £5.00 for 20 minutes at a service station now how far would that get you in a Leaf/i3 25-35 miles?
Which makes no better than a petrol & worse than a diesel plus both would have put that £5.00 in gone in under 5 minutes.

[AW111]

I find it amusing that people who on other threads are scathing in their denunciation of "environmental eco-bks" then get all nasty about the supposed environmental cost of EVs on a Tesla thread .

[TEKNOPUG]

Talksteer said:

Buses will be wiped out on most routes by autonomous cars. Those which aren't follow set routes and can be fast charged during the day while they are stationary.

So everyone who currently gets a bus - non-car drivers (the young, the old, the sick, the poor) will all have their own autonomous car? Paid for by who and kept where? Or are you suggesting that there will be fleets of automous taxis which people can hail for the price of a bus ticket? What is that going to do to congestion? Replace a bus which can carry 60 people, with 2 cars that can carry 8?

[jjlynn27]

AW111 said:

I find it amusing that people who on other threads are scathing in their denunciation of "environmental eco-bks" then get all nasty about the supposed environmental cost of EVs on a Tesla thread .

Totally expected. Average age probably north of 70. Them new fangled thingies! The main difference for me, was, part from being stupendously cheap to run, the sensation of driving. It was like playing computer game. And acceleration.

Edited by jjlynn27 on Tuesday 26th July 11:11

[Leithen]

TEKNOPUG said:

So everyone who currently gets a bus - non-car drivers (the young, the old, the sick, the poor) will all have their own autonomous car? Paid for by who and kept where? Or are you suggesting that there will be fleets of automous taxis which people can hail for the price of a bus ticket? What is that going to do to congestion? Replace a bus which can carry 60 people, with 2 cars that can carry 8?

It doesn't take too much of a leap to foresee a future where road traffic is able to move much more quickly and efficiently with individual vehicles all talking to each other and sensing their environment. Traffic lights and lanes in theory could be eliminated. Congestion will be far better managed by vehicles automatically being routed via the quickest route.

One of the consequences however will be far stricter delineation between pedestrian and vehicle. No bad thing perhaps.

Musk's vision of shared car ownership might jar with those to whom individual ownership is valued. But if you live in a city and use public transport most of the time, it offers the possibility of being able to use a more expensive car whenever you need it without many of the difficulties involved in keeping a car in built up areas. It's little different than renting a holiday home versus owning a timeshare, albeit with more flexible usage.

It's been said before, but Musk isn't trying to change vehicle use overnight in a wholesale manner. Rather he's offering an alternative to a minority in the belief that change is inevitable.

[Talksteer]

RobDickinson said:

ZX10R NIN said:

Either that or they'll have to build some new Nuclear Power stations on the outskirts of London somewhere

Ultimately the UK is going to need to invest a lot more into nuclear IMO, and in several serious studies. coal and gas will only last so long.

Which nuclear is the interesting bit though, fusion or fission...

Well Fission is possible, and economic in countries with pragmatic governments like Korea or France in the 1970's.

Fusion as currently envisioned in tokamaks has not even been demonstrated at break even, however the big issue is even if you solve the technical problems with fusion the chances of it being economic is low.

For its power output a fusion plant is massive, full of expensive materials and not particularity better than a fission plant in terms of waste. I'm currently at a conference in Cambridge watching a lecture saying precisely that!!

[98elise]

TEKNOPUG said:

Talksteer said:

Buses will be wiped out on most routes by autonomous cars. Those which aren't follow set routes and can be fast charged during the day while they are stationary.

So everyone who currently gets a bus - non-car drivers (the young, the old, the sick, the poor) will all have their own autonomous car? Paid for by who and kept where? Or are you suggesting that there will be fleets of automous taxis which people can hail for the price of a bus ticket? What is that going to do to congestion? Replace a bus which can carry 60 people, with 2 cars that can carry 8?

Its part of Musks plan to build smaller more efficient buses

Elon Musk said:

In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. We believe the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while increasing safety and making it really fun to operate.

With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are currently entryways, and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination. Fixed summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don't have a phone. Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.

...and also you can send you car off to be a taxi, alongside a tesla owned fleet

Elon Musk said:

You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost. This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.

In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own fleet, ensuring you can always hail a ride from us no matter where you are.

[Talksteer]

TEKNOPUG said:

Talksteer said:

Buses will be wiped out on most routes by autonomous cars. Those which aren't follow set routes and can be fast charged during the day while they are stationary.

So everyone who currently gets a bus - non-car drivers (the young, the old, the sick, the poor) will all have their own autonomous car? Paid for by who and kept where? Or are you suggesting that there will be fleets of automous taxis which people can hail for the price of a bus ticket? What is that going to do to congestion? Replace a bus which can carry 60 people, with 2 cars that can carry 8?

Yes, the benefit of autonomous cars is that car mobility is expanded to the old, the young, the drunk, the tired, the people wanting a trip to the door of places with no parking. The massive benefits are why this will happen!

The cost per mile of autonomous cars will be lower per mile than owning a car due to the much higher utilisation, we would need only 1/8 the number of cars and substantial less parking as we have several places per car.. They will be substantially cheaper than a bus where outside of London the average ridership per bus is eight.

For congestion expect that the autonomous car will pay a per mile charge to be applied to the car. Everyone using the autonomous cars will be using an Uber type app to book journeys. If there is congestion the charge will drive users to share which will be pretty seamless using the app.

In some areas a rush hour it may be possible to package together enough trips to put 20-30 people in the same vehicle. It is unlikely that such a vehicle would be utilised outside of rush hour so it will probably carry passengers in a pod at rush hour and cargo for the rest of the day.

[Talksteer]

Jader1973 said:

Talksteer said:

Trucks cannot go more than 220 miles without the driver stopping.

In Europe. I think you'll find the US and Australia will be different.

For example Aus regs state:
In any period of 5.5 hours a driver must not work for more than 5.25 hours.

Given trucks here are 100 km/h limited that is 500km of driving, or 300 miles.

In 11 hours they can work for 10 as long as the break is more than 15 mins at a time. So in theory they could drive 1,000 km (600 miles) without stopping and then have an hour off.

What's your point?

So Europe and Asia manage to move their transport fleet to mostly electric. I would be very surprised if the US doesn't follow suite, either accepting shorter ranges or using larger batteries. If a quick change battery takes only a minute to change is this even a big issue?

Australia really doesn't matter from a global perspective!

Edited by Talksteer on Tuesday 26th July 12:38

[TEKNOPUG]

Leithen said:

TEKNOPUG said:

So everyone who currently gets a bus - non-car drivers (the young, the old, the sick, the poor) will all have their own autonomous car? Paid for by who and kept where? Or are you suggesting that there will be fleets of automous taxis which people can hail for the price of a bus ticket? What is that going to do to congestion? Replace a bus which can carry 60 people, with 2 cars that can carry 8?

It doesn't take too much of a leap to foresee a future where road traffic is able to move much more quickly and efficiently with individual vehicles all talking to each other and sensing their environment. Traffic lights and lanes in theory could be eliminated. Congestion will be far better managed by vehicles automatically being routed via the quickest route.

One of the consequences however will be far stricter delineation between pedestrian and vehicle. No bad thing perhaps.

Musk's vision of shared car ownership might jar with those to whom individual ownership is valued. But if you live in a city and use public transport most of the time, it offers the possibility of being able to use a more expensive car whenever you need it without many of the difficulties involved in keeping a car in built up areas. It's little different than renting a holiday home versus owning a timeshare, albeit with more flexible usage.

It's been said before, but Musk isn't trying to change vehicle use overnight in a wholesale manner. Rather he's offering an alternative to a minority in the belief that change is inevitable.

It doesn't get away from the fact that you are drastically increasing the number of vehicles on the road if you are replacing a vehicle that can carry 60 people with two that can carry 8. You effecitvely need 7 buses to replace one. No matter how more efficient you route the vehicles, it doesn't change the fact that you now have 7 times as many vehicles all trying to get commuters into the City/West End etc at the same time.

I agree with the last sentiment, it is an alternative but at the moment only for a very niche market. There requires an almost wholesale infrastructure change in the country before it could ever become mainstream or replace the ICE. And at the moment there don't seem to be many solutions as to how that will be done and who will pay for it. The EV is the future and if you have £50k+ to spend on a Tesla S, don't require driving more than 200 miles between recharging and have somewhere to park it where it can be recharged, the future is now. For everyone else, the future is still a long, long way off.