Tesla Master Plan part deux

Author
Discussion

Tonsko

6,299 posts

214 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
A little piece on the relative merits (or lack thereof) of the Tesla Gigafactory.

http://theconversation.com/can-the-worlds-biggest-...

London424

12,826 posts

174 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
TEKNOPUG said:
Leithen said:
TEKNOPUG said:
confused

So everyone who currently gets a bus - non-car drivers (the young, the old, the sick, the poor) will all have their own autonomous car? Paid for by who and kept where? Or are you suggesting that there will be fleets of automous taxis which people can hail for the price of a bus ticket? What is that going to do to congestion? Replace a bus which can carry 60 people, with 2 cars that can carry 8?
It doesn't take too much of a leap to foresee a future where road traffic is able to move much more quickly and efficiently with individual vehicles all talking to each other and sensing their environment. Traffic lights and lanes in theory could be eliminated. Congestion will be far better managed by vehicles automatically being routed via the quickest route.

One of the consequences however will be far stricter delineation between pedestrian and vehicle. No bad thing perhaps.

Musk's vision of shared car ownership might jar with those to whom individual ownership is valued. But if you live in a city and use public transport most of the time, it offers the possibility of being able to use a more expensive car whenever you need it without many of the difficulties involved in keeping a car in built up areas. It's little different than renting a holiday home versus owning a timeshare, albeit with more flexible usage.

It's been said before, but Musk isn't trying to change vehicle use overnight in a wholesale manner. Rather he's offering an alternative to a minority in the belief that change is inevitable.
It doesn't get away from the fact that you are drastically increasing the number of vehicles on the road if you are replacing a vehicle that can carry 60 people with two that can carry 8. You effecitvely need 7 buses to replace one. No matter how more efficient you route the vehicles, it doesn't change the fact that you now have 7 times as many vehicles all trying to get commuters into the City/West End etc at the same time.
How often is a vehicle that CAN carry 60 actually carrying anywhere near that? In London, during peak times sure, but out in the sticks? Whenever I see them they're often pretty empty.

Digga

40,206 posts

282 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
London424 said:
How often is a vehicle that CAN carry 60 actually carrying anywhere near that? In London, during peak times sure, but out in the sticks? Whenever I see them they're often pretty empty.
Three times in the last decade I've see one of the local morning buses broken down too. On one occasion I was even able to diagnose the problem without even stopping, on account of having had to swerve around a con-rod in the middle of the road. I st you not.

TEKNOPUG

18,843 posts

204 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
London424 said:
TEKNOPUG said:
Leithen said:
TEKNOPUG said:
confused

So everyone who currently gets a bus - non-car drivers (the young, the old, the sick, the poor) will all have their own autonomous car? Paid for by who and kept where? Or are you suggesting that there will be fleets of automous taxis which people can hail for the price of a bus ticket? What is that going to do to congestion? Replace a bus which can carry 60 people, with 2 cars that can carry 8?
It doesn't take too much of a leap to foresee a future where road traffic is able to move much more quickly and efficiently with individual vehicles all talking to each other and sensing their environment. Traffic lights and lanes in theory could be eliminated. Congestion will be far better managed by vehicles automatically being routed via the quickest route.

One of the consequences however will be far stricter delineation between pedestrian and vehicle. No bad thing perhaps.

Musk's vision of shared car ownership might jar with those to whom individual ownership is valued. But if you live in a city and use public transport most of the time, it offers the possibility of being able to use a more expensive car whenever you need it without many of the difficulties involved in keeping a car in built up areas. It's little different than renting a holiday home versus owning a timeshare, albeit with more flexible usage.

It's been said before, but Musk isn't trying to change vehicle use overnight in a wholesale manner. Rather he's offering an alternative to a minority in the belief that change is inevitable.
It doesn't get away from the fact that you are drastically increasing the number of vehicles on the road if you are replacing a vehicle that can carry 60 people with two that can carry 8. You effecitvely need 7 buses to replace one. No matter how more efficient you route the vehicles, it doesn't change the fact that you now have 7 times as many vehicles all trying to get commuters into the City/West End etc at the same time.
How often is a vehicle that CAN carry 60 actually carrying anywhere near that? In London, during peak times sure, but out in the sticks? Whenever I see them they're often pretty empty.
Very true. But in the countryside, where there are less people, less cars, less traffic and less demand, the benefits of EV are also less.

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
TEKNOPUG said:
Very true. But in the countryside, where there are less people, less cars, less traffic and less demand, the benefits of EV are also less.
On the other hand, the more remote your dwelling, the more likely you are to have off street parking for charging your car, and the greater a pain in the arse having to visit petrol stations is.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

197 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
otolith said:
TEKNOPUG said:
Very true. But in the countryside, where there are less people, less cars, less traffic and less demand, the benefits of EV are also less.
On the other hand, the more remote your dwelling, the more likely you are to have off street parking for charging your car, and the greater a pain in the arse having to visit petrol stations is.
Most cars have a range over 350 miles many diesels well over 700 miles some over 1,000 miles. You wouldn't pop out to fill up especially you'd do it en route that's the flexibility of dino juice.

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
Welshbeef said:
Most cars have a range over 350 miles many diesels well over 700 miles some over 1,000 miles. You wouldn't pop out to fill up especially you'd do it en route that's the flexibility of dino juice.
In my experience of living in remote areas, often the petrol station isn't on any of your normal routes and you have to make a journey especially to fill it up.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

197 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
otolith said:
Welshbeef said:
Most cars have a range over 350 miles many diesels well over 700 miles some over 1,000 miles. You wouldn't pop out to fill up especially you'd do it en route that's the flexibility of dino juice.
In my experience of living in remote areas, often the petrol station isn't on any of your normal routes and you have to make a journey especially to fill it up.
I grew up in a remote area - one primary school the entire school had 35 kids then after half a rearm moved to a one that had under 100 kids. The village was more a hamlet.


Anyway given the range I mention most people work or go places over the course of s month and if not then 700mile range will last you months so nothing to worry about.
Where about is your example or really remote?

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
Mid Wales and Cumbria are places I've lived where I had to make a special journey to fill up. And pay through the nose. Large parts of Scotland are similar. Of course, a 20 mile round trip isn't a *problem* with the range of an ICE, but it's less convenient than *never* having to fill up.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

197 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
otolith said:
Mid Wales and Cumbria are places I've lived where I had to make a special journey to fill up. And pay through the nose. Large parts of Scotland are similar. Of course, a 20 mile round trip isn't a *problem* with the range of an ICE, but it's less convenient than *never* having to fill up.
Well I was in North West Wales even more remote - heck nearest bowling alley was a 70 mile each way trip, swimming pool 50 mile round trip
Etc.

Mid Wales is well served in comparison.


Given you have a 700mile range and don't do 700 miles each trip surely on your day by day drives you'd pass a station

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
Depends where you are going, doesn't it? If most of your mileage is the same handful of journeys that don't pass a petrol station, it is what it is.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

197 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
otolith said:
Depends where you are going, doesn't it? If most of your mileage is the same handful of journeys that don't pass a petrol station, it is what it is.
I guess you go to work 5 days a week then shopping on the weekend and maybe visit friends family or go out to visit places with the kids or whatever you do.


Mid Wales
Brecon
Builth Wells
Newtown
Rhayader

Close to one of those areas? If not use the below it might actually be en route which has been overlooked. Ditto any other petrol station finder

https://www.tescopfs.com/petrol-station-finder


http://www.fuelgenie.co.uk/where-can-i-use-it/find...
The above link is much better lists all fuel stations in order of proximity and then price.
Can you find out within a 10mile search of your post code actually how many filling stations you have - heck no do it as 5 miles and also just state how far the office is. I'd wager I may have found you a solution - internet punt coming my way or a Mars bar with eBay smile.

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
Haven't lived in such an area for about 20 years, so sadly no use to me now - but the point wasn't that petrol cars were useless, rather that a car which never needs fuelling is an improvement for those who have to make a journey to fill up.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

197 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
otolith said:
Haven't lived in such an area for about 20 years, so sadly no use to me now - but the point wasn't that petrol cars were useless, rather that a car which never needs fuelling is an improvement for those who have to make a journey to fill up.
Fair point.

TEKNOPUG

18,843 posts

204 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
otolith said:
TEKNOPUG said:
Very true. But in the countryside, where there are less people, less cars, less traffic and less demand, the benefits of EV are also less.
On the other hand, the more remote your dwelling, the more likely you are to have off street parking for charging your car, and the greater a pain in the arse having to visit petrol stations is.
Most people live in towns and cities though. So it's an answer to an issue that only a small minority have.

RobDickinson

Original Poster:

31,343 posts

253 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
UK tends to vary between 90 and 82% population in urban areas.

The difficult cases like remote rural living will be solved later when the technology has developed more. But even then its going to be easier to charge up at home than go find a petrol station somewhere.

Just reading some news on lithium-oxygen batteries, early stages yet (like many other technologies) but could store twice the power and be a lot lighter than current batteries.

Jader1973

3,942 posts

199 months

Wednesday 27th July 2016
quotequote all
Talksteer said:
Jader1973 said:
Talksteer said:
Trucks cannot go more than 220 miles without the driver stopping.
In Europe. I think you'll find the US and Australia will be different.

For example Aus regs state:
In any period of 5.5 hours a driver must not work for more than 5.25 hours.

Given trucks here are 100 km/h limited that is 500km of driving, or 300 miles.

In 11 hours they can work for 10 as long as the break is more than 15 mins at a time. So in theory they could drive 1,000 km (600 miles) without stopping and then have an hour off.
What's your point?

So Europe and Asia manage to move their transport fleet to mostly electric. I would be very surprised if the US doesn't follow suite, either accepting shorter ranges or using larger batteries. If a quick change battery takes only a minute to change is this even a big issue?

Australia really doesn't matter from a global perspective!


Edited by Talksteer on Tuesday 26th July 12:38
That is a very small minded view.

You cannot use the argument that because it is okay for a very small country like the UK it can be applied globally. The automotive (and truck and bus) industry is global and therefore thinks globally.

There are many countries (e.g. Australia, Canada, USA, bits of South America, Russia, China) where the distances covered by truck are much bigger than those in the UK and an EV limited to 220 miles before a full recharge would be useless.


On a related topic, I read an article about a Tesla home battery in Sydney. Saving stloads on his electricity bill but will take 10 years to pay back. By which time I expect his battery and solar panels will need replaced, or at least have a very short life left - so no actual benefit.

It really is a genius business model when you think about it: sell someone something on the basis it saves them money and by the time it has paid back they need to shell out on a replacement.

babatunde

736 posts

189 months

Wednesday 27th July 2016
quotequote all
Jader1973 said:
That is a very small minded view.

You cannot use the argument that because it is okay for a very small country like the UK it can be applied globally. The automotive (and truck and bus) industry is global and therefore thinks globally.

There are many countries (e.g. Australia, Canada, USA, bits of South America, Russia, China) where the distances covered by truck are much bigger than those in the UK and an EV limited to 220 miles before a full recharge would be useless.


On a related topic, I read an article about a Tesla home battery in Sydney. Saving stloads on his electricity bill but will take 10 years to pay back. By which time I expect his battery and solar panels will need replaced, or at least have a very short life left - so no actual benefit.

It really is a genius business model when you think about it: sell someone something on the basis it saves them money and by the time it has paid back they need to shell out on a replacement.
This argument (and I use that word loosely) is typically wrong, you can't conclude whether or not he will save money based on a supposition (you know an idea or theory that you believe is true even though you do not have proof) that his system won't last 10 years. Bearing in mind that most solar panels come with 20-25 year warranties and Tesla offer a 10 year warranty on their Powerwall units.
.
On a slightly related note places like the outback of Australia are an ideal test bed for solar power as network electricity is impractical, transporting fuel is also very expensive and they get plenty of sun. EV's on a ranch actually might make a lot of sense



AW111

9,455 posts

132 months

Wednesday 27th July 2016
quotequote all
Jader1973 said:
That is a very small minded view.

You cannot use the argument that because it is okay for a very small country like the UK it can be applied globally. The automotive (and truck and bus) industry is global and therefore thinks globally.

There are many countries (e.g. Australia, Canada, USA, bits of South America, Russia, China) where the distances covered by truck are much bigger than those in the UK and an EV limited to 220 miles before a full recharge would be useless.


On a related topic, I read an article about a Tesla home battery in Sydney. Saving stloads on his electricity bill but will take 10 years to pay back. By which time I expect his battery and solar panels will need replaced, or at least have a very short life left - so no actual benefit.

It really is a genius business model when you think about it: sell someone something on the basis it saves them money and by the time it has paid back they need to shell out on a replacement.
I don't see EVs replacing long-haul semi trailers any time soon. The transport market is for all the inner-city / suburban shuttles, which often spend a fair bit of time stuck in traffic, where EVs come into their own.

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Wednesday 27th July 2016
quotequote all
TEKNOPUG said:
otolith said:
TEKNOPUG said:
Very true. But in the countryside, where there are less people, less cars, less traffic and less demand, the benefits of EV are also less.
On the other hand, the more remote your dwelling, the more likely you are to have off street parking for charging your car, and the greater a pain in the arse having to visit petrol stations is.
Most people live in towns and cities though. So it's an answer to an issue that only a small minority have.
Hang on, you were just saying that they were of less benefit to people outside towns and cities. I was pointing out that actually there are benefits to them too. So we can agree that there are benefits for everyone then?