Tesla Master Plan part deux
Discussion
And where would Musk be without an endless supply of other people's money extorted under the climate change false flag?
Opportunist with powerful connections, yes, business/tech genius, no.
He is looking increasingly desperate and erratic to keep the charade going, maybe even gone a bit doolally, if you ask me.
Opportunist with powerful connections, yes, business/tech genius, no.
He is looking increasingly desperate and erratic to keep the charade going, maybe even gone a bit doolally, if you ask me.
RobDickinson said:
https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux
Interesting. By fleet learning I wonder if they're suggesting using the data from where cars previously drove without incident to determine the route of the next one, rather than simply trying to find the white lines which may or may not be there, some arbitrary measure of a safe gap to the car in front, etc.tesla said:
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
I haven't heard of anyone else doing that but it seems a simple step to take. None of it sounds overly ambitious to me, regardless of the true state of environmental or reliability concerns I'd imagine politicians will help make it happen and I'm not convinced he needs much help.
768 said:
Interesting. By fleet learning I wonder if they're suggesting using the data from where cars previously drove without incident to determine the route of the next one, rather than simply trying to find the white lines which may or may not be there, some arbitrary measure of a safe gap to the car in front, etc.
It will be massively more complex than simply learning routes - it's all about learning the type of scenarios that are encountered by cars and how best to react. I strongly suspect that they will be monitoring what the driver does, correlating that with what the sensors are picking up, and extrapolating to build up a massive set of data along the lines of 'if I encounter scenario A, then executing action B is a good idea 47.8% of the time however if I have also just encountered scenario Z then I urgently need execute action Y. Only much, much more complicated than that.Mr GrimNasty said:
And where would Musk be without an endless supply of other people's money extorted under the climate change false flag?
Opportunist with powerful connections, yes, business/tech genius, no.
He is looking increasingly desperate and erratic to keep the charade going, maybe even gone a bit doolally, if you ask me.
Pretty much a slightly more acerbic version of my own take on it. Going the fully Howard Hughes.Opportunist with powerful connections, yes, business/tech genius, no.
He is looking increasingly desperate and erratic to keep the charade going, maybe even gone a bit doolally, if you ask me.
Jader1973 said:
Hadn't seen that 
At least they aren't referring to "Autopilot".
"An autopilot is a system used to control the trajectory of a vehicle without constant 'hands-on' control by a human operator being required. Autopilots do not replace a human operator, but assist them in controlling the vehicle, allowing them to focus on broader aspects of operation, such as monitoring the trajectory, weather and systems."At least they aren't referring to "Autopilot".
"An autonomous car (driverless car, self-driving car, robotic car) is a vehicle that is capable of sensing its environment and navigating without human input."
Yea, good job indeed
Fact is, untill there is a quantam leap in battery technology, electric cars will be viewed by the majority as nothing more than a fashionable gimmick
Batteries need to take a full charge in around 15 minutes, give a radius in excess of 600 miles, AND have a *guaranteed* life of at least 10 years. Long way to go yet.
Batteries need to take a full charge in around 15 minutes, give a radius in excess of 600 miles, AND have a *guaranteed* life of at least 10 years. Long way to go yet.
gibbon said:
Jonesy23 said:
Usual appeal to authority argument.
His net worth is debatable and mostly based on overvalued shares not actual cash income unlike some mining types I know (for example).
His rockets land. Occasionally in one piece. He neither designed nor built them himself so just being the boss doesn't gain him much credit.
He is in the process of building a factory. With Panasonic. Using their designs and tech. Actually building a big factory is not exactly a great leap of thinking especially when it's other people's money, design and product.
Come on man, seriously?His net worth is debatable and mostly based on overvalued shares not actual cash income unlike some mining types I know (for example).
His rockets land. Occasionally in one piece. He neither designed nor built them himself so just being the boss doesn't gain him much credit.
He is in the process of building a factory. With Panasonic. Using their designs and tech. Actually building a big factory is not exactly a great leap of thinking especially when it's other people's money, design and product.
It's actually quite cool that the anonymity of a forum allows people to state their true feelings, it's like having a pub argument at times, even after googling the correct answer there is still someone who won't accept facts as the truth.
Oh and
1.landing rocketships isn't a trivial thing, ask NASA
2.By the rational above (or lack of it) every entrepreneur in the world is a slacker
3.
Edited by babatunde on Thursday 21st July 13:31
Mr GrimNasty said:
And where would Musk be without an endless supply of other people's money extorted under the climate change false flag?
Opportunist with powerful connections, yes, business/tech genius, no.
He is looking increasingly desperate and erratic to keep the charade going, maybe even gone a bit doolally, if you ask me.
So the founder of zip2, paypal, tesla, spaceX is not 'business/tech' genius. Opportunist with powerful connections, yes, business/tech genius, no.
He is looking increasingly desperate and erratic to keep the charade going, maybe even gone a bit doolally, if you ask me.
Someone is looking increasingly desperate, and it's not Musk.deckster said:
It will be massively more complex than simply learning routes - it's all about learning the type of scenarios that are encountered by cars and how best to react. I strongly suspect that they will be monitoring what the driver does, correlating that with what the sensors are picking up, and extrapolating to build up a massive set of data along the lines of 'if I encounter scenario A, then executing action B is a good idea 47.8% of the time however if I have also just encountered scenario Z then I urgently need execute action Y. Only much, much more complicated than that.
Why would it be "much, much more complicated than that"? I'd imagine dumping sensor outputs into an off the shelf neural network would suffice?Jonesy23 said:
Usual appeal to authority argument.
His net worth is debatable and mostly based on overvalued shares not actual cash income unlike some mining types I know (for example).
His rockets land. Occasionally in one piece. He neither designed nor built them himself so just being the boss doesn't gain him much credit.
He is in the process of building a factory. With Panasonic. Using their designs and tech. Actually building a big factory is not exactly a great leap of thinking especially when it's other people's money, design and product.
NASA refer to him as CEO and Chief Designer at SpaceX. Wiki has him as both CEO and CTO.His net worth is debatable and mostly based on overvalued shares not actual cash income unlike some mining types I know (for example).
His rockets land. Occasionally in one piece. He neither designed nor built them himself so just being the boss doesn't gain him much credit.
He is in the process of building a factory. With Panasonic. Using their designs and tech. Actually building a big factory is not exactly a great leap of thinking especially when it's other people's money, design and product.
Always a good chuckle reading posts being sceptical or worse of Musk.
Reading some posts, you'd be forgiven for thinking he was a snake-oil salesman who'd never achieved anything.
Good luck to him and anyone else who aims for Mars. He's brutally honest about his failures and rightly proud of his achievements.
More like him required.
Reading some posts, you'd be forgiven for thinking he was a snake-oil salesman who'd never achieved anything.
Good luck to him and anyone else who aims for Mars. He's brutally honest about his failures and rightly proud of his achievements.
More like him required.
Leithen said:
Always a good chuckle reading posts being sceptical or worse of Musk.
Reading some posts, you'd be forgiven for thinking he was a snake-oil salesman who'd never achieved anything.
Good luck to him and anyone else who aims for Mars. He's brutally honest about his failures and rightly proud of his achievements.
More like him required.
Quite.Reading some posts, you'd be forgiven for thinking he was a snake-oil salesman who'd never achieved anything.
Good luck to him and anyone else who aims for Mars. He's brutally honest about his failures and rightly proud of his achievements.
More like him required.
Whilst I fail to see the point of his rockets (Mars, you say? That'll be useful.) I do like the Tesla S. If only it was reasonably priced and had a realistic range for those of us who still do long(ish) trips.
I had a close look at one but it wasn't capable of doing my regular distance trips in an acceptable manner and the price of a well specced one was staggering. Any savings on fuel pale into insignificance when you're paying £30K or more than an equally well specced BMW or even MB.
Hopefully, these cars and their recharging systems will develop to a point where they cover all needs at a competitive price; till then I'm thankful to the early adopters who are paying the price of progress!
I had a close look at one but it wasn't capable of doing my regular distance trips in an acceptable manner and the price of a well specced one was staggering. Any savings on fuel pale into insignificance when you're paying £30K or more than an equally well specced BMW or even MB.
Hopefully, these cars and their recharging systems will develop to a point where they cover all needs at a competitive price; till then I'm thankful to the early adopters who are paying the price of progress!
Hosenbugler said:
Fact is, untill there is a quantam leap in battery technology, electric cars will be viewed by the majority as nothing more than a fashionable gimmick
Batteries need to take a full charge in around 15 minutes, give a radius in excess of 600 miles, AND have a *guaranteed* life of at least 10 years. Long way to go yet.
The argument about a range of over 600 miles seems to be trotted out frequently but who drives that far a day without stopping at all? If you do drive 600 miles a day then EVs are obviously not for you.Batteries need to take a full charge in around 15 minutes, give a radius in excess of 600 miles, AND have a *guaranteed* life of at least 10 years. Long way to go yet.
greygoose said:
The argument about a range of over 600 miles seems to be trotted out frequently but who drives that far a day without stopping at all? If you do drive 600 miles a day then EVs are obviously not for you.
This year, anyway. So many companies are researching battery technology now that they are getting better quickly. We'll get to the tipping point (which I figure is only around 500km with a 30 minute recharge - equivalent to 4 hours on the motorway, by which point I'm ready for a stop) in not very long at all. greygoose said:
Hosenbugler said:
Fact is, untill there is a quantam leap in battery technology, electric cars will be viewed by the majority as nothing more than a fashionable gimmick
Batteries need to take a full charge in around 15 minutes, give a radius in excess of 600 miles, AND have a *guaranteed* life of at least 10 years. Long way to go yet.
The argument about a range of over 600 miles seems to be trotted out frequently but who drives that far a day without stopping at all? If you do drive 600 miles a day then EVs are obviously not for you.Batteries need to take a full charge in around 15 minutes, give a radius in excess of 600 miles, AND have a *guaranteed* life of at least 10 years. Long way to go yet.
greygoose said:
Hosenbugler said:
Fact is, untill there is a quantam leap in battery technology, electric cars will be viewed by the majority as nothing more than a fashionable gimmick
Batteries need to take a full charge in around 15 minutes, give a radius in excess of 600 miles, AND have a *guaranteed* life of at least 10 years. Long way to go yet.
The argument about a range of over 600 miles seems to be trotted out frequently but who drives that far a day without stopping at all? If you do drive 600 miles a day then EVs are obviously not for you.Batteries need to take a full charge in around 15 minutes, give a radius in excess of 600 miles, AND have a *guaranteed* life of at least 10 years. Long way to go yet.
Elon Musk is like a rather boring Tony Stark in my opinion - he's got this far I see absolutely no reason why he can't achieve what he desires, he obviously ain't daft -
but...
1) Battery technology has some finite physical and chemical limits and the more energy you try to put into a ever decreasing sized space the more problems you're going to have keeping it controlled and stable in there. Liquid hydrocarbons are incredibly energy dense, petrol is 46.4MJ/Kg the best Li-Po batteries are around 1Mj/Kg iirc and their manufacture isn't massively consequence free either. So there is a lot of catching up to do and admittedly the electrical drive train of a car can be made inherently more efficient than a combustion engine but there is also massive pay offs in terms of weight and safety of large capacity batteries.
2) I believe autonomous vehicles are on the way and they will succeed but I also believe that they'll be regulated and controlled by governments, it's to big an infrastructure risk to allow the open market to use the roads as a mass market test bed, so when we reach the point where the tech is proven governments are going to have to plan and regulate meaning they'll take the big manufacturers with them and Tony Stark without the money of a VAG, Ford, GM, BMW or Toyota will be left out in the rain.
but...
1) Battery technology has some finite physical and chemical limits and the more energy you try to put into a ever decreasing sized space the more problems you're going to have keeping it controlled and stable in there. Liquid hydrocarbons are incredibly energy dense, petrol is 46.4MJ/Kg the best Li-Po batteries are around 1Mj/Kg iirc and their manufacture isn't massively consequence free either. So there is a lot of catching up to do and admittedly the electrical drive train of a car can be made inherently more efficient than a combustion engine but there is also massive pay offs in terms of weight and safety of large capacity batteries.
2) I believe autonomous vehicles are on the way and they will succeed but I also believe that they'll be regulated and controlled by governments, it's to big an infrastructure risk to allow the open market to use the roads as a mass market test bed, so when we reach the point where the tech is proven governments are going to have to plan and regulate meaning they'll take the big manufacturers with them and Tony Stark without the money of a VAG, Ford, GM, BMW or Toyota will be left out in the rain.
jjlynn27 said:
Mr GrimNasty said:
And where would Musk be without an endless supply of other people's money extorted under the climate change false flag?
Opportunist with powerful connections, yes, business/tech genius, no.
He is looking increasingly desperate and erratic to keep the charade going, maybe even gone a bit doolally, if you ask me.
So the founder of zip2, paypal, tesla, spaceX is not 'business/tech' genius. Opportunist with powerful connections, yes, business/tech genius, no.
He is looking increasingly desperate and erratic to keep the charade going, maybe even gone a bit doolally, if you ask me.
Someone is looking increasingly desperate, and it's not Musk.
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