Automation - How far can it go?
Discussion
JagLover said:
Some Economists have been thinking about this, but I very much doubt the political elite have. Their solutions thus far have been the subsidising of lifestyle choices (tax credits) and a higher minimum wage. Both of these cannot solve the problem of stagnating incomes for the broad mass of the population in the middle.
Someone said the adaptable will do fine and that is correct. The highly educated and skilled and adaptable will do as well in the decades to come as in the two decades just gone. These are however a fraction of the workforce and an even smaller share of the voters.
Either parties of the mainstream embrace solutions to this issue. Citizens income, ending low skilled immigration, adequate housing provision etc, or they will be swept away by populist parties of either left or right.
Had I seen this sooner I wouldn't have bothered with my reply above, this is pretty much the cleanest way this will go.Someone said the adaptable will do fine and that is correct. The highly educated and skilled and adaptable will do as well in the decades to come as in the two decades just gone. These are however a fraction of the workforce and an even smaller share of the voters.
Either parties of the mainstream embrace solutions to this issue. Citizens income, ending low skilled immigration, adequate housing provision etc, or they will be swept away by populist parties of either left or right.
Automation will never remove the need for the vast majority of people to have to work. Yes Robots or whatever will take on the jobs currently being done by humans but new and unforeseeable employment opportunities will always arise as they did after the Industrial Revolution.
It's analogous to building more and faster roads like the M25 in the 1980's in the expectation that it will solve the traffic issue once and for all. It didn't as demand almost instantly grew to fill the gap and always will. Spare capacity is always recognised and exploited.
It'll be the same with jobs, Individuals/companies will always see the opportunities arising from putting idle labour to use and earning from it. The jobs/employment/career might be different from todays jobs/employment/career but they'll exist just as surely as they have always done.
It's analogous to building more and faster roads like the M25 in the 1980's in the expectation that it will solve the traffic issue once and for all. It didn't as demand almost instantly grew to fill the gap and always will. Spare capacity is always recognised and exploited.
It'll be the same with jobs, Individuals/companies will always see the opportunities arising from putting idle labour to use and earning from it. The jobs/employment/career might be different from todays jobs/employment/career but they'll exist just as surely as they have always done.
Welshbeef said:
We all need to be prepared to be dynamic and willing to change careers a number of times through our working lives. Not accepting that reality could mean you are thrown onto the s
t heap. glazbagun said:
JagLover said:
Some Economists have been thinking about this, but I very much doubt the political elite have. Their solutions thus far have been the subsidising of lifestyle choices (tax credits) and a higher minimum wage. Both of these cannot solve the problem of stagnating incomes for the broad mass of the population in the middle.
Someone said the adaptable will do fine and that is correct. The highly educated and skilled and adaptable will do as well in the decades to come as in the two decades just gone. These are however a fraction of the workforce and an even smaller share of the voters.
Either parties of the mainstream embrace solutions to this issue. Citizens income, ending low skilled immigration, adequate housing provision etc, or they will be swept away by populist parties of either left or right.
Had I seen this sooner I wouldn't have bothered with my reply above, this is pretty much the cleanest way this will go.Someone said the adaptable will do fine and that is correct. The highly educated and skilled and adaptable will do as well in the decades to come as in the two decades just gone. These are however a fraction of the workforce and an even smaller share of the voters.
Either parties of the mainstream embrace solutions to this issue. Citizens income, ending low skilled immigration, adequate housing provision etc, or they will be swept away by populist parties of either left or right.
When you have industries that can manufacturer robot butlers, then technology will be advanced enough to have robot salesman to sell them to you. (& possibly GAP insurance too.).
That's when the cut off point will be for white collar workers. So it will be off down the docks for me to do favours for sailors or wking off tramps for coins round the back of Aldi.
No one can say I don't have ambition.
That's when the cut off point will be for white collar workers. So it will be off down the docks for me to do favours for sailors or w
king off tramps for coins round the back of Aldi.No one can say I don't have ambition.
lionelf said:
Automation will never remove the need for the vast majority of people to have to work. Yes Robots or whatever will take on the jobs currently being done by humans but new and unforeseeable employment opportunities will always arise as they did after the Industrial Revolution.
It's analogous to building more and faster roads like the M25 in the 1980's in the expectation that it will solve the traffic issue once and for all. It didn't as demand almost instantly grew to fill the gap and always will. Spare capacity is always recognised and exploited.
It'll be the same with jobs, Individuals/companies will always see the opportunities arising from putting idle labour to use and earning from it. The jobs/employment/career might be different from todays jobs/employment/career but they'll exist just as surely as they have always done.
No.It's analogous to building more and faster roads like the M25 in the 1980's in the expectation that it will solve the traffic issue once and for all. It didn't as demand almost instantly grew to fill the gap and always will. Spare capacity is always recognised and exploited.
It'll be the same with jobs, Individuals/companies will always see the opportunities arising from putting idle labour to use and earning from it. The jobs/employment/career might be different from todays jobs/employment/career but they'll exist just as surely as they have always done.
This was true as a concept back in the eighties.
Now, with AI coming on, self driving cars, on-line lawyers (that are better than real ones in term of accuracy), on-line Drs (that are better than real ones in term of diagnosis), on-line banking, cash disappearing from society, automated factories, automated farming, the list goes on...
We really are facing a quantum change, certainly for the 1st and 2nd worlds, and the future WILL NOT be a life of 40-60 hours work for the majority of people. I can see a lot of "just existing" and a few "living".
Chinese proverbs spring to mind....
mondeoman said:
No.
This was true as a concept back in the eighties.
Now, with AI coming on, self driving cars, on-line lawyers (that are better than real ones in term of accuracy), on-line Drs (that are better than real ones in term of diagnosis), on-line banking, cash disappearing from society, automated factories, automated farming, the list goes on...
We really are facing a quantum change, certainly for the 1st and 2nd worlds, and the future WILL NOT be a life of 40-60 hours work for the majority of people. I can see a lot of "just existing" and a few "living".
Chinese proverbs spring to mind....
But the key point is companies need consumers to exist it's a symbiotic relationship. Hence the companies will accept higher taxes - they will have higher profits anyway due to lower operating costs and less wasteage or reworking. This was true as a concept back in the eighties.
Now, with AI coming on, self driving cars, on-line lawyers (that are better than real ones in term of accuracy), on-line Drs (that are better than real ones in term of diagnosis), on-line banking, cash disappearing from society, automated factories, automated farming, the list goes on...
We really are facing a quantum change, certainly for the 1st and 2nd worlds, and the future WILL NOT be a life of 40-60 hours work for the majority of people. I can see a lot of "just existing" and a few "living".
Chinese proverbs spring to mind....
Welshbeef said:
mondeoman said:
No.
This was true as a concept back in the eighties.
Now, with AI coming on, self driving cars, on-line lawyers (that are better than real ones in term of accuracy), on-line Drs (that are better than real ones in term of diagnosis), on-line banking, cash disappearing from society, automated factories, automated farming, the list goes on...
We really are facing a quantum change, certainly for the 1st and 2nd worlds, and the future WILL NOT be a life of 40-60 hours work for the majority of people. I can see a lot of "just existing" and a few "living".
Chinese proverbs spring to mind....
But the key point is companies need consumers to exist it's a symbiotic relationship. Hence the companies will accept higher taxes - they will have higher profits anyway due to lower operating costs and less wasteage or reworking. This was true as a concept back in the eighties.
Now, with AI coming on, self driving cars, on-line lawyers (that are better than real ones in term of accuracy), on-line Drs (that are better than real ones in term of diagnosis), on-line banking, cash disappearing from society, automated factories, automated farming, the list goes on...
We really are facing a quantum change, certainly for the 1st and 2nd worlds, and the future WILL NOT be a life of 40-60 hours work for the majority of people. I can see a lot of "just existing" and a few "living".
Chinese proverbs spring to mind....
The division and specialisation of labour.
Most of our ancestors were farmers. Even with the domestication of animals, the invention of the plough, the steam engine, the industrial revolution, etc millions, maybe billions were put of work as their jobs became redundant. Yet look where we are now.
Most of our ancestors were farmers. Even with the domestication of animals, the invention of the plough, the steam engine, the industrial revolution, etc millions, maybe billions were put of work as their jobs became redundant. Yet look where we are now.
mondeoman said:
No.
This was true as a concept back in the eighties.
Now, with AI coming on, self driving cars, on-line lawyers (that are better than real ones in term of accuracy), on-line Drs (that are better than real ones in term of diagnosis), on-line banking, cash disappearing from society, automated factories, automated farming, the list goes on...
We really are facing a quantum change, certainly for the 1st and 2nd worlds, and the future WILL NOT be a life of 40-60 hours work for the majority of people. I can see a lot of "just existing" and a few "living".
Chinese proverbs spring to mind....
Online doctor is better than a person?? Sorry but that's bThis was true as a concept back in the eighties.
Now, with AI coming on, self driving cars, on-line lawyers (that are better than real ones in term of accuracy), on-line Drs (that are better than real ones in term of diagnosis), on-line banking, cash disappearing from society, automated factories, automated farming, the list goes on...
We really are facing a quantum change, certainly for the 1st and 2nd worlds, and the future WILL NOT be a life of 40-60 hours work for the majority of people. I can see a lot of "just existing" and a few "living".
Chinese proverbs spring to mind....
ks TLandCruiser said:
mondeoman said:
No.
This was true as a concept back in the eighties.
Now, with AI coming on, self driving cars, on-line lawyers (that are better than real ones in term of accuracy), on-line Drs (that are better than real ones in term of diagnosis), on-line banking, cash disappearing from society, automated factories, automated farming, the list goes on...
We really are facing a quantum change, certainly for the 1st and 2nd worlds, and the future WILL NOT be a life of 40-60 hours work for the majority of people. I can see a lot of "just existing" and a few "living".
Chinese proverbs spring to mind....
Online doctor is better than a person?? Sorry but that's bThis was true as a concept back in the eighties.
Now, with AI coming on, self driving cars, on-line lawyers (that are better than real ones in term of accuracy), on-line Drs (that are better than real ones in term of diagnosis), on-line banking, cash disappearing from society, automated factories, automated farming, the list goes on...
We really are facing a quantum change, certainly for the 1st and 2nd worlds, and the future WILL NOT be a life of 40-60 hours work for the majority of people. I can see a lot of "just existing" and a few "living".
Chinese proverbs spring to mind....
ks 
And NHS 24 On Line isn't what I was talking about either...
You have to look ahead, not back to see where this is going. Current applications are based in the 90's, not using the best, latest tech.
mondeoman said:
TLandCruiser said:
mondeoman said:
No.
This was true as a concept back in the eighties.
Now, with AI coming on, self driving cars, on-line lawyers (that are better than real ones in term of accuracy), on-line Drs (that are better than real ones in term of diagnosis), on-line banking, cash disappearing from society, automated factories, automated farming, the list goes on...
We really are facing a quantum change, certainly for the 1st and 2nd worlds, and the future WILL NOT be a life of 40-60 hours work for the majority of people. I can see a lot of "just existing" and a few "living".
Chinese proverbs spring to mind....
Online doctor is better than a person?? Sorry but that's bThis was true as a concept back in the eighties.
Now, with AI coming on, self driving cars, on-line lawyers (that are better than real ones in term of accuracy), on-line Drs (that are better than real ones in term of diagnosis), on-line banking, cash disappearing from society, automated factories, automated farming, the list goes on...
We really are facing a quantum change, certainly for the 1st and 2nd worlds, and the future WILL NOT be a life of 40-60 hours work for the majority of people. I can see a lot of "just existing" and a few "living".
Chinese proverbs spring to mind....
ks And NHS 24 On Line isn't what I was talking about either...
You have to look ahead, not back to see where this is going. Current applications are based in the 90's, not using the best, latest tech.
If you anyone wants to know more, try googling Watson Oncology.
mondeoman said:
lionelf said:
Automation will never remove the need for the vast majority of people to have to work. Yes Robots or whatever will take on the jobs currently being done by humans but new and unforeseeable employment opportunities will always arise as they did after the Industrial Revolution.
It's analogous to building more and faster roads like the M25 in the 1980's in the expectation that it will solve the traffic issue once and for all. It didn't as demand almost instantly grew to fill the gap and always will. Spare capacity is always recognised and exploited.
It'll be the same with jobs, Individuals/companies will always see the opportunities arising from putting idle labour to use and earning from it. The jobs/employment/career might be different from todays jobs/employment/career but they'll exist just as surely as they have always done.
No.It's analogous to building more and faster roads like the M25 in the 1980's in the expectation that it will solve the traffic issue once and for all. It didn't as demand almost instantly grew to fill the gap and always will. Spare capacity is always recognised and exploited.
It'll be the same with jobs, Individuals/companies will always see the opportunities arising from putting idle labour to use and earning from it. The jobs/employment/career might be different from todays jobs/employment/career but they'll exist just as surely as they have always done.
This was true as a concept back in the eighties.
Now, with AI coming on, self driving cars, on-line lawyers (that are better than real ones in term of accuracy), on-line Drs (that are better than real ones in term of diagnosis), on-line banking, cash disappearing from society, automated factories, automated farming, the list goes on...
We really are facing a quantum change, certainly for the 1st and 2nd worlds, and the future WILL NOT be a life of 40-60 hours work for the majority of people. I can see a lot of "just existing" and a few "living".
Chinese proverbs spring to mind....
This video is two years old, so basically totally obsolete already, but this is a good example of how far computers are coming on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4kyRyKyOpo
And at the end he talks about the implications.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4kyRyKyOpo
And at the end he talks about the implications.
lionelf said:
I'm a fan of Kurzweil and the coming singularity but what you are saying cannot happen. You cannot have the vast majority of the human race simply stop working and live in some kind of Star Trekian utopia where everyone does what they want to do rather than what they are offered. Back in the '70's TV News and Documentary programmes (like Tomorrows World) were proclaiming the end of employment within 20 years with the creation of the micro-chip. All that happened was that new and innovative industries were formed and employment has continued.
It is happening already. Here's an extreme example.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCreary_County,_Ken...
91% of the economy in this Kentucky county is government aid. That's due to the coal industry collapsing and there being no viable alternative. Although you could say that this is an isolated case, I'll divert you back to Kurzweil.
"The future is already here – it's just not very evenly distributed"
We've got countries in Europe where youth unemployment is 50%, and there is quite a high likelihood that when the economies there finally begin to recover, they'll do so in a way that doesn't provide mass employment again. People are likely to end up on the dole for their whole working life.
Utopia it isn't, but the foundations for the end of work are being laid.
lionelf said:
mondeoman said:
lionelf said:
Automation will never remove the need for the vast majority of people to have to work. Yes Robots or whatever will take on the jobs currently being done by humans but new and unforeseeable employment opportunities will always arise as they did after the Industrial Revolution.
It's analogous to building more and faster roads like the M25 in the 1980's in the expectation that it will solve the traffic issue once and for all. It didn't as demand almost instantly grew to fill the gap and always will. Spare capacity is always recognised and exploited.
It'll be the same with jobs, Individuals/companies will always see the opportunities arising from putting idle labour to use and earning from it. The jobs/employment/career might be different from todays jobs/employment/career but they'll exist just as surely as they have always done.
No.It's analogous to building more and faster roads like the M25 in the 1980's in the expectation that it will solve the traffic issue once and for all. It didn't as demand almost instantly grew to fill the gap and always will. Spare capacity is always recognised and exploited.
It'll be the same with jobs, Individuals/companies will always see the opportunities arising from putting idle labour to use and earning from it. The jobs/employment/career might be different from todays jobs/employment/career but they'll exist just as surely as they have always done.
This was true as a concept back in the eighties.
Now, with AI coming on, self driving cars, on-line lawyers (that are better than real ones in term of accuracy), on-line Drs (that are better than real ones in term of diagnosis), on-line banking, cash disappearing from society, automated factories, automated farming, the list goes on...
We really are facing a quantum change, certainly for the 1st and 2nd worlds, and the future WILL NOT be a life of 40-60 hours work for the majority of people. I can see a lot of "just existing" and a few "living".
Chinese proverbs spring to mind....
Amazon and Google cars? Thats a bunch of delivery drivers out of work and they cant all become Barristas working for Costa and Starbucks...
it is going to get very radical and not that far away either.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff