Automation - How far can it go?

[fido]

Marx was only half right. Plenty of new jobs have been created which he could not have envisioned when he wrote his Leftist books. For example, I would rather be a Web Designer that a Typesetter in a newsprint.

[FredClogs]

fido said:

Marx was only half right. Plenty of new jobs have been created which he could not have envisioned when he wrote his Leftist books. For example, I would rather be a Web Designer that a Typesetter in a newsprint.

No you wouldn't, my Great Grandfather was a print worker, he ended up running the print workers union and being one of the most influential men in Fleet Street, you can't do that from your back bedroom.

[crashley]

FredClogs said:

No you wouldn't, my Great Grandfather was a print worker, he ended up running the print workers union and being one of the most influential men in Fleet Street, you can't do that from your back bedroom.

Mark Zuckerberg and his band of merry brothers would probably beg to differ.

[anonymous-user]

FredClogs said:

fido said:

Marx was only half right. Plenty of new jobs have been created which he could not have envisioned when he wrote his Leftist books. For example, I would rather be a Web Designer that a Typesetter in a newsprint.

No you wouldn't, my Great Grandfather was a print worker, he ended up running the print workers union and being one of the most influential men in Fleet Street, you can't do that from your back bedroom.

That's it proof that being a typesetter is 100% a better job than being a web designer. And proof that Fido is wrong if he thinks otherwise.

[FredClogs]

el stovey said:

FredClogs said:

fido said:

Marx was only half right. Plenty of new jobs have been created which he could not have envisioned when he wrote his Leftist books. For example, I would rather be a Web Designer that a Typesetter in a newsprint.

No you wouldn't, my Great Grandfather was a print worker, he ended up running the print workers union and being one of the most influential men in Fleet Street, you can't do that from your back bedroom.

That's it proof that being a typesetter is 100% a better job than being a web designer. And proof that Fido is wrong if he thinks otherwise.

Exactly.

[TLandCruiser]

I changed careers, the job I do will be able to be automated one day but what's holding it back is the sheer cost to do so, it will be a gradual process which I won't be replaced in my working life.

I guess with many things it comes down to legislation and cost if the technology does not presently exist. Take underground drivers, the technology has been available for years for the train to be driverless and the trains were able to be automonus since the 1960s on some routes, but in order to be driverless there is so much infastructure work required to be completed to comply with health and safety regulations. I imagine then the operators will be given a choice of voluntary redundancy or move into a csa role like on the dock lands light railway where they do ticket checks, customer service duties and if the train or system develops a fault then operate it manually.

[fido]

el stovey said:

FredClogs said:

fido said:

Marx was only half right. Plenty of new jobs have been created which he could not have envisioned when he wrote his Leftist books. For example, I would rather be a Web Designer that a Typesetter in a newsprint.

No you wouldn't, my Great Grandfather was a print worker, he ended up running the print workers union and being one of the most influential men in Fleet Street, you can't do that from your back bedroom.

That's it proof that being a typesetter is 100% a better job than being a web designer. And proof that Fido is wrong if he thinks otherwise.

As others have said plenty of dotcom millionaires say otherwise .. and at a much earlier age to enjoy the plentiful supply of coke and h$$kers!

[Tannedbaldhead]

Fittster said:

Kermit power said:

Sure, low-skilled repetitive labour has already largely gone the way of automation in developed economies, but what we're looking at next is the demise of the middle class, skilled white collar worker.

If only someone had predicted that.

"The lower strata of the middle class...all these sink gradually into the proletariat, partly because their diminutive capital does not suffice for the scale on which Modern Industry is carried on, and is swamped in the competition with the large capitalists, partly because their specialised skill is rendered worthless by new methods of production. Thus the proletariat is recruited from all classes of the population."

Marx.

Time for the middle class to stop thinking they are different to any other workers.

I see this happening all over. When I was a young surveyor there was a plethora of jobs at a surveying technician level. Guys (usually educated to HNC or HND Level) who carried out tasks such as ECPs condition reports, fire safety checks, asbestos management surveys, etc. All these guys wore a collar and tie, drove company cars, earned the equivalent in their day of £30k a year plus and looked forward to decent pension. Now the same guys wear poloshirts with the company name on their tit, DeWalt two-tone work trousers which are a mass of pockets and a pair of boots more suitable for invading Poland rather than a home visit. They drive vans rather than a company car, have minimum private pensions and earn nearer £20k per annum than the £30k my generation earned.
The banks, insurance and pension providers have done something very similar. Direct employees have been chopped then re-employed through companies who have won contract to carry out the backroom servicing and administration work. Again a well paid well looked after body of middle class white collar workers are finding themselves considerably worse off in salary and T&Cs.
This results in an erosion of perceived status where this type of job is going to feel much more working than middle class

One wonders when so many middle class white collar end up in this boat that there's noone left to buy white Beemer, Merc and Audi SUVs and detached newbuild houses. Then things will get interesting.

Edited by Tannedbaldhead on Wednesday 27th July 16:22

[crankedup]

durbster said:

Worried your job will be taken over by a drone?

Then start learning how to maintain drones.

I'm sure every generation feels threatened by technological progress but people and business historically adapt, and the death of old markets leads to the birth of new ones. A kid growing up today surely has a million more ways to make a living now than our parents did.

At the age I lost my first tooth, the job I do now didn't exist, and probably wouldn't have been conceivable.

Reckon it will be cheaper to replace drones than have a tech working on them, not far to go and we have drones making drones.

[rovermorris999]

Judging by the predictions for the future that have been made in the past it'll be nothing like predicted. The adaptable will prosper.

[Getragdogleg]

Gecko1978 said:

Getragdogleg said:

I do self store containers and house removals, cant see that getting automated anytime soon.

perhaps but your storage facility, how is it arranged I am thinking like thoes car parks in japan where you drive into a space get out and your car is then slotted into a hanger in the building i.e. you dont drive round looking for a space the garage allocates your car a rack getting more cars in one place etc.

So using robots at the other end mean more efficent use of space as the storage lockers become containers stacked with no direct human access.

Honestly, if you saw the amazing variety of tat people store you would know why I am not worried ! No way a Robot will be doing this for a long long time.

[GroundEffect]

A good video on this subject:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

As a project-leading engineer on transmissions I wonder how a 'bot could take over my role. Certainly could take in loads more data than I and make decisions better with that extra data...but lead direction and nuances that I go through every day? More likely is the team of engineers I rely on doing the actual data-crunching (CAE, NVH, etc) would be farmed out to bots and it would just be me left to report/direct! It'd be like one of those self-serve tills sections in a supermarket. How lonely.

[lionelf]

FredClogs said:

Fittster said:

If only someone had predicted that.

"The lower strata of the middle class...all these sink gradually into the proletariat, partly because their diminutive capital does not suffice for the scale on which Modern Industry is carried on, and is swamped in the competition with the large capitalists, partly because their specialised skill is rendered worthless by new methods of production. Thus the proletariat is recruited from all classes of the population."

Marx.

Time for the middle class to stop thinking they are different to any other workers.

I think Tony Blair neatly addressed this issue when he created the Classless society and lifted everyone into the middle class... That is what he did, right?

He only said he'd create a classless society but it took Dave Cameron to actually achieve it.

Surely you remember his triumphant statement of "We're all in it together".

[Welshbeef]

Let's look at HGVs the give are trailing automated trucks with 6 wagons on the back. ...


Now look at USA they have 15milliom working its drivers in the logistics trade what do they do? It will be a pretty swift change over as the cost to deliver will decrease be more efficient work24/7 etc.

That's just 1 job sector

How about Taxi drivers? Autonomous vehicles will do this 24/7 all safe secure etc and much cheaper than the Joe blogs



Its the niche roles where you design /create ideas that's key.

[TLandCruiser]

Welshbeef said:

Let's look at HGVs the give are trailing automated trucks with 6 wagons on the back. ...


Now look at USA they have 15milliom working its drivers in the logistics trade what do they do? It will be a pretty swift change over as the cost to deliver will decrease be more efficient work24/7 etc.

That's just 1 job sector

How about Taxi drivers? Autonomous vehicles will do this 24/7 all safe secure etc and much cheaper than the Joe blogs



Its the niche roles where you design /create ideas that's key.

In reality the cost will not be passed on to the end customer. What will those 15 million drivers do?

[Welshbeef]

What will happen is the govt will increase corporation taxes.

The political elite and economists have been thinking about this for a long time and the solution is a living wage paid to everyone weather you work or don't. They are trying to find out what that starting point needs to be and then it will need to be increased.
In essence it's likely you will see mass economically idle people instead they have an income a citizens income to spend with these companies. Imagine never working again ever for a salary - salary will likely be a compromise and be level for all. You will have individuals who are highly creative and they will be wealthy the rest will all be the same but save or spend as they see fit.

[anonymous-user]

RobDickinson said:

Much further than we are now.

We'll automate almost every job out of existence in the next 40-50 years....

Theres already cheap ($20k) one armed robots to replace cheap repetitive labour

That sent a shiver down my spine. Your second sentence is almost exactly what I was told when I left school and was deciding between a career in engineering or with the local authority.

Actually, I can't remember exactly what the words were; it was in 1966.

[markcoznottz]

JagLover said:

We are already seeing increasing concentrations of wealth, along with stagnation of earnings for those at or below median earnings, before the impact of automation hits to any meaningful extent.

It is very real IMO but the impact should not be exaggerated. Saying a sector is "80% exposed to automation" does not mean it will all be automated. Some tasks will be automated meaning that sector will lose employment, just not 80% of it.

Once you add this to the increasing pressure on the average worker due to globalisation it will create a "perfect storm" IMO. Only governments who recognise the true issues will survive. The rest will be swept away by populist parties of the left or right, and the establishments control of the media will not save them.

Yes. The biggest problem in the west is the politicians have taken the publics vote for granted, see the shock at the referendum for that. The only way to control the population is to subjugate them, worked in communist countries. It doesn't work in western economies, Tony Blairs trick was free money, tax credits, store cards, and remortgaging to use your house like an atm machine. Now that's all gone it isn't at all clear what will replace it, given a large percentage have % respect for the political class.

[Northern Munkee]

Perhaps missing the point a little on automation, and if not quite AI, but more intelligent software solutions, white collar jobs are already going, look at the tax office, I've never spoken to anyone at HMRC since I started submitting self assessment, the introduction of Universal Credit ought to be preparation for much greater automation of claiming benefits with little contact with human beings (stop sniggering at the back) overheard a trainer that many of the DWP staff in call centres are reading from automated scripts where the answers are recorded and lead the staff to the route through the claim and they are instructed never deviate from the script to the extent I heard one say, it's a job anyone could do. (But I've seen there work and it leaves a lot to be desired) however the next step is to take the humans out of the loop. I'd include bookkeeping, simple accountancy, most call centre jobs, perhaps some legal work, etc.

Which begs the question what are we going to do with the people? And how are they going to make a living? Important philosophical and societal questions. Suggesting in time where there are many more people than jobs, requiring a national basic income, and a lot of leisure time. Denizens.

[Kawasicki]

Oh it is coming, I predict a robot in every kitchen by 2200...to fill and empty the dishwasher..and it will only cost 56,000 in today's money.