Brexcuses

[///ajd]

paulrockliffe said:

///ajd said:

eg Jags - and as an example I recall around 50% of production goes into the EU.

You quoted Jaguar on a different thread a while ago, I corrected you and you ignored the correction.

Sales to Europe last year by JLR were 22.6%. That's Europe, not the EU.

UK was 20.7%, US was 19.3% and China was 19%. Rest of the World was 18.4%

So most JLR cars are exported and most go to none EU countries, by quite some margin. In fact, JLR sell pretty much as many cars in the UK as they do in the massive EU Market.

Yes you're right - it was a while ago, I was remembering that within the EU/Europe, less than half go to the UK. This is relevant from an investment point of view.

I remember now the discussion was how (according to brexit myth) JLR sell more cars to China than Europe/EU (ex UK). Not true of course, as your figures show. It was the usual "we can afford to ignore the Europe/EU market" rhetoric.

The volume sold into Europe/EU is still relevant from a production investment point of view, whether its inconvenient to admit it or not.

[anonymous-user]

Who is saying we can afford to ignore the European market?

[paulrockliffe]

///ajd said:

paulrockliffe said:

///ajd said:

eg Jags - and as an example I recall around 50% of production goes into the EU.

You quoted Jaguar on a different thread a while ago, I corrected you and you ignored the correction.

Sales to Europe last year by JLR were 22.6%. That's Europe, not the EU.

UK was 20.7%, US was 19.3% and China was 19%. Rest of the World was 18.4%

So most JLR cars are exported and most go to none EU countries, by quite some margin. In fact, JLR sell pretty much as many cars in the UK as they do in the massive EU Market.

Yes you're right - it was a while ago, I was remembering that within the EU/Europe, less than half go to the UK. This is relevant from an investment point of view.

I remember now the discussion was how (according to brexit myth) JLR sell more cars to China than Europe/EU (ex UK). Not true of course, as your figures show. It was the usual "we can afford to ignore the Europe/EU market" rhetoric.

The volume sold into Europe/EU is still relevant from a production investment point of view, whether its inconvenient to admit it or not.

So what you're saying is that even when you're wrong, you're right?

JLR don't breakdown their sales figures by country, the only figure available for the EU includes all other countries in Europe that aren't in the EU. China is close enough behind in total sales (10s of thousands) that it's not unreasonable to think that they might sell more to China than the EU, but the data isn't there to prove it one way or another.

Incidentally, the figures for the previous year show 25% went to China and only 17% to Europe (Not the EU).

No one, on this thread, or any of the others has said that sales to the EU are irrelevant. The point was that you are overstating the importance of one market over the rest, by a huge amount in this case.

You might consider that given the real figures, not the ones you made up, that having a free trade agreement with the US and China might be more important to some exports than being in the EU. But that would be a bit inconvenient wouldn't it?

[Tampon]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

We have been selling polish made sofas ranges for a few years now (good quality stuff).

The point of posting in this thread is to show the effect of brexit to some people. Others suggest businesses that go down deserve it for not adapting. We will try other sources and different things but they cost a lot of money to put in and they are always a gamble.

I doubt a different sofa at a different price range will change things dramitically. The reason he isn't selling is not because people dont like what he has, was selling great right up until the vote. It is because they are holding off on large purchases just incase due to the vote. If the economy slows down on top of this then he will have major issues.

People seem to be flippant about this prospect for business owners when it does match their idea of what Brexit is. I don't want sympathy, just want people to see the otherside of the coin.

[turbobloke]

Tampon said:

Others suggest businesses that go down deserve it for not adapting.

I may have missed a post or two, but I haven't read anything as harsh as that. A point made once or twice is that there was sufficient time after the referendum was promised, and then announced, to look at mitigating risk, do a bit of contingency planning, rather than simply hoping the vote would be to remain. Isn't that basic stuff and not particularly controversial?

[anonymous-user]

turbobloke said:

I may have missed a post or two, but I haven't read anything as harsh as that. A point made once or twice is that there was sufficient time after the referendum was promised, and then announced, to look at mitigating risk, do a bit of contingency planning, rather than simply hoping the vote would be to remain. Isn't that basic stuff and not particularly controversial?

If only he had known there would be no customers coming through the door he could had sold up.

Is that how it works ?

[Tampon]

turbobloke said:

I may have missed a post or two, but I haven't read anything as harsh as that. A point made once or twice is that there was sufficient time after the referendum was promised, and then announced, to look at mitigating risk, do a bit of contingency planning, rather than simply hoping the vote would be to remain. Isn't that basic stuff and not particularly controversial?

Apart from saving up a pot of money to wait for customers to come back there is not a lot a medium sized furniture retailer can do. He could change industry, go back to antiques, small/ individual particular pieces, auctions or commissions for clients and downsize the business but the staff will lose their jobs. People aren't coming through the door, until they do he can't make decision on the market and what to do. Only then can he make changes, then see if they work. All of this costs money, lots of it. To guess before the vote when everything was saying we were staying in, inc the out campaign on the night, would be silly and not great business sense.

He can put capital in and ride it out, has done in the past with changes to stuff sold, but this is bit late in life for him to have to deal with all of this and might not see a upturn before he retires. People have no idea what will happen but the predictions (and current experience) seem to show things slowing down.

[FiF]

Tampon said:

turbobloke said:

I may have missed a post or two, but I haven't read anything as harsh as that. A point made once or twice is that there was sufficient time after the referendum was promised, and then announced, to look at mitigating risk, do a bit of contingency planning, rather than simply hoping the vote would be to remain. Isn't that basic stuff and not particularly controversial?

Apart from saving up a pot of money to wait for customers to come back there is not a lot a medium sized furniture retailer can do. He could change industry, go back to antiques, small/ individual particular pieces, auctions or commissions for clients and downsize the business but the staff will lose their jobs. People aren't coming through the door, until they do he can't make decision on the market and what to do. Only then can he make changes, then see if they work. All of this costs money, lots of it. To guess before the vote when everything was saying we were staying in, inc the out campaign on the night, would be silly and not great business sense.

He can put capital in and ride it out, has done in the past with changes to stuff sold, but this is bit late in life for him to have to deal with all of this and might not see a upturn before he retires. People have no idea what will happen but the predictions (and current experience) seem to show things slowing down.

Thing is though, whilst I have great sympathy for the issues facing your f.i.l. he is a perfect example of the sort of business who have to pay higher prices for imported supply with no prospect of gains from increasing revenue from exports. Couple that with a reduced customer demand, be that down to any other reason, be it a general slowing of demand through to a new competitors starting up then obviously it's a worrying time and must look bleak.

So turning to this comment.

Tampon said:

The issues i am having and trying to find answers for is the "some up some down", seems to be lots of down for people and one or two ups but no actual experiences here (in a very pro brexit arena) of actual ups.

Very worried it is downs all the way with occasional up.

If that comment is based simply on a very personal experience and perspective, and commenting simply on that horizon, then it's probably fair comment. If it was intended as comment on the wider business economy, then it's simply wrong, sorry to be a bit brutal, but it is. Anyone who sells to or gains income from abroad will be a net gainer. How they do that will vary from case to case but a net gainer they will be.

[anonymous-user]

@Tampon. Does your Dad offer finance on his furniture ?

[///ajd]

paulrockliffe said:

///ajd said:

paulrockliffe said:

///ajd said:

eg Jags - and as an example I recall around 50% of production goes into the EU.

You quoted Jaguar on a different thread a while ago, I corrected you and you ignored the correction.

Sales to Europe last year by JLR were 22.6%. That's Europe, not the EU.

UK was 20.7%, US was 19.3% and China was 19%. Rest of the World was 18.4%

So most JLR cars are exported and most go to none EU countries, by quite some margin. In fact, JLR sell pretty much as many cars in the UK as they do in the massive EU Market.

Yes you're right - it was a while ago, I was remembering that within the EU/Europe, less than half go to the UK. This is relevant from an investment point of view.

I remember now the discussion was how (according to brexit myth) JLR sell more cars to China than Europe/EU (ex UK). Not true of course, as your figures show. It was the usual "we can afford to ignore the Europe/EU market" rhetoric.

The volume sold into Europe/EU is still relevant from a production investment point of view, whether its inconvenient to admit it or not.

So what you're saying is that even when you're wrong, you're right?

JLR don't breakdown their sales figures by country, the only figure available for the EU includes all other countries in Europe that aren't in the EU. China is close enough behind in total sales (10s of thousands) that it's not unreasonable to think that they might sell more to China than the EU, but the data isn't there to prove it one way or another.

Incidentally, the figures for the previous year show 25% went to China and only 17% to Europe (Not the EU).

No one, on this thread, or any of the others has said that sales to the EU are irrelevant. The point was that you are overstating the importance of one market over the rest, by a huge amount in this case.

You might consider that given the real figures, not the ones you made up, that having a free trade agreement with the US and China might be more important to some exports than being in the EU. But that would be a bit inconvenient wouldn't it?

No I'm saying I was wrong and I immediately admitted it. I misremembered the stats, this is a chat room not a job. Good to see you making it a point of credibility.

Many have dismissed the EU market and bigged up china et al. The message has been we can put the importance of our EU to one side as look elsewhere!! Hannan et al - all very guilty - listen to them talk down about EU as though its a declining market. BS - its just not growing as fast as china. All spin.

The point about comparing UK to EU markets is due to tariffs - my 50% recollection. Nissan are partly here as we're in the EU (at the moment) whether you want to admit that or not is another issue. We can get free trade deals with china and US through the EU - oh but we don't like free trade on chinese steel do we, or do we?

Interesting for those pushing the Turkey option - this doesn't apply to services, AND they have to apply EU tariffs to everyone from outside the EU. They can't influence their own trade deals. Inconvenient.

[Tampon]

Ghibli said:

@Tampon. Does your Dad offer finance on his furniture ?

Has done in the past, tried with the new stuff but at the price point and area he is in customers tend to prefer credit cards or cash in bank.

I will get him to have another look into it in current climate.

Cheers

[Tampon]

FiF said:

If that comment is based simply on a very personal experience and perspective, and commenting simply on that horizon, then it's probably fair comment. If it was intended as comment on the wider business economy, then it's simply wrong, sorry to be a bit brutal, but it is. Anyone who sells to or gains income from abroad will be a net gainer. How they do that will vary from case to case but a net gainer they will be.

Cheers Fif (actually my Father rather than FiL).

When I asked for the some ups I was wondering if anyone here had improved or benefited. We have heard second and third had improvements but a good few first hand accounts of actual issues.

My story is of a down, and it is obviously just our own perspective, but I haven't met any of my friends who have businesses say things have improved. Friend who has a recruitment business has noticed no difference. Few have noticed a downturn. None have noticed anything good (yet)

Just wondered if there are firsthand accounts of benefits? As there are so many pro brexit people on PH I would imagine it would be the best place to find out the positive real world experiences.

[anonymous-user]

Tampon said:

Has done in the past, tried with the new stuff but at the price point and area he is in customers tend to prefer credit cards or cash in bank.

I will get him to have another look into it in current climate.

Cheers

Good luck. There are 17 million people looking on the bright side. Finance could be right up their street.

[Jockman]

Tampon said:

Just wondered if there are firsthand accounts of benefits? As there are so many pro brexit people on PH I would imagine it would be the best place to find out the positive real world experiences.

It's a difficult question to answer as we haven't left the EU.....maybe not for another 3 years, maybe never.

Five weeks after a surprising result, uncertainty and concern prevail. It's hard to imagine ANY business flourishing in such circumstances.

[RYH64E]

FiF said:

Anyone who sells to or gains income from abroad will be a net gainer. How they do that will vary from case to case but a net gainer they will be.

Simplistic and not true. Most of us have some income from overseas and some from the UK, similarly some costs are incurred in GBP, others EUR and USD. Some will have their overseas income paid in GBP, others in USD, EUR etc, and many businesses will see turnover falling due to cancelled projects and general uncertainty.

If your costs are mostly paid in GBP and your income is mostly paid in USD or EUR, and your business turnover doesn't fall, then you may well be a net gainer, but that is far from being the universal outcome your post suggests.

[Tampon]

Jockman said:

It's a difficult question to answer as we haven't left the EU.....maybe not for another 3 years, maybe never.

Five weeks after a surprising result, uncertainty and concern prevail. It's hard to imagine ANY business flourishing in such circumstances.

That is what I am asking, seems to be just downsides so far. If people are lucky then no effect, if not st pie time. Seems strange to have a thread saying people are wrongly blaming things on Brexit when Brexit seems to be openly admitted causing "uncertainty and concern". Can't polish a turd but seemingly can't blame the turd for causing a sink either.

Thought there might be some accounts of the benefits some here keep talking about.

[FiF]

RYH64E said:

FiF said:

Anyone who sells to or gains income from abroad will be a net gainer. How they do that will vary from case to case but a net gainer they will be.

Simplistic and not true. Most of us have some income from overseas and some from the UK, similarly some costs are incurred in GBP, others EUR and USD. Some will have their overseas income paid in GBP, others in USD, EUR etc, and many businesses will see turnover falling due to cancelled projects and general uncertainty.

If your costs are mostly paid in GBP and your income is mostly paid in USD or EUR, and your business turnover doesn't fall, then you may well be a net gainer, but that is far from being the universal outcome your post suggests.

Depends on the actual circumstances obviously, a business whose imports exceeds their exports will be a net loser. Perhaps I needed to qualify that. They will gain on the export side of the business, and there may be the opportunity to expand that, certainly it would be a sensible thing to do.

But remembering your posting history can see why you focus on the aspect of many seeing cancelled projects and ignoring people picking up work.

But the point still stands that it's not, as has been claimed, all negatives and no positives. Maybe you don't see it like that, if so that's fair enough, but not from my perspective frankly.

[turbobloke]

Tampon said:

Thought there might be some accounts of the benefits some here keep talking about.

Is that saying that details already posted of those in the tourist business (hotels, guest houses, attractions) and exporters aren't benefiting from the short-to-medium term situation?

Examples have already been given. There are upsides, but the longer-term position inevitably depends on negotiations yet to play out.

[RYH64E]

FiF said:

RYH64E said:

FiF said:

Anyone who sells to or gains income from abroad will be a net gainer. How they do that will vary from case to case but a net gainer they will be.

Simplistic and not true. Most of us have some income from overseas and some from the UK, similarly some costs are incurred in GBP, others EUR and USD. Some will have their overseas income paid in GBP, others in USD, EUR etc, and many businesses will see turnover falling due to cancelled projects and general uncertainty.

If your costs are mostly paid in GBP and your income is mostly paid in USD or EUR, and your business turnover doesn't fall, then you may well be a net gainer, but that is far from being the universal outcome your post suggests.

Depends on the actual circumstances obviously, a business whose imports exceeds their exports will be a net loser. Perhaps I needed to qualify that. They will gain on the export side of the business, and there may be the opportunity to expand that, certainly it would be a sensible thing to do.

But remembering your posting history can see why you focus on the aspect of many seeing cancelled projects and ignoring people picking up work.

But the point still stands that it's not, as has been claimed, all negatives and no positives. Maybe you don't see it like that, if so that's fair enough, but not from my perspective frankly.

I seem to remember from your previous posts that you're some kind of academic, in which case it's perhaps not surprising that you have a different view about the real world consequences of the Brexit vote than those of us who make our living in the business world.

It's interesting that you say expand on the export side of the business as that's what I've been doing for the last 10 years, taking advantage of the opportunities that membership of the EU single market has offered...

[Jockman]

Tampon said:

That is what I am asking, seems to be just downsides so far. If people are lucky then no effect, if not st pie time. Seems strange to have a thread saying people are wrongly blaming things on Brexit when Brexit seems to be openly admitted causing "uncertainty and concern". Can't polish a turd but seemingly can't blame the turd for causing a sink either.

Thought there might be some accounts of the benefits some here keep talking about.

I think the target of the thread are those Companies that are using brexit to bury bad news. Otherwise, it seems a genuine business concern for those caught up in the uncertainty created by the referendum.

Although only 13% (??) of Companies sell to Europe, the vote has certainly highlighted to me the amount of Companies / Industries who are directly reliant on EU funding or their business models are dependent upon it.