Brexcuses

[FiF]

RYH64E said:

FiF said:

RYH64E said:

FiF said:

Anyone who sells to or gains income from abroad will be a net gainer. How they do that will vary from case to case but a net gainer they will be.

Simplistic and not true. Most of us have some income from overseas and some from the UK, similarly some costs are incurred in GBP, others EUR and USD. Some will have their overseas income paid in GBP, others in USD, EUR etc, and many businesses will see turnover falling due to cancelled projects and general uncertainty.

If your costs are mostly paid in GBP and your income is mostly paid in USD or EUR, and your business turnover doesn't fall, then you may well be a net gainer, but that is far from being the universal outcome your post suggests.

Depends on the actual circumstances obviously, a business whose imports exceeds their exports will be a net loser. Perhaps I needed to qualify that. They will gain on the export side of the business, and there may be the opportunity to expand that, certainly it would be a sensible thing to do.

But remembering your posting history can see why you focus on the aspect of many seeing cancelled projects and ignoring people picking up work.

But the point still stands that it's not, as has been claimed, all negatives and no positives. Maybe you don't see it like that, if so that's fair enough, but not from my perspective frankly.

I seem to remember from your previous posts that you're some kind of academic, in which case it's perhaps not surprising that you have a different view about the real world consequences of the Brexit vote than those of us who make our living in the business world.

It's interesting that you say expand on the export side of the business as that's what I've been doing for the last 10 years, taking advantage of the opportunities that membership of the EU single market has offered...

But with previous real world experience, in the last year before deciding to do something different my team did over 250 million worth of business with ebit of 20-odd percent. Manufacturing by the way. Living made for a long time out in the hard business world.

You might like to kick the ball next time, instead of, you know. You know what I'm going to remove myself because arguing with persistently negative doom mongers is beyond boring.

[Tampon]

turbobloke said:

Is that saying that details already posted of those in the tourist business (hotels, guest houses, attractions) and exporters aren't benefiting from the short-to-medium term situation?

Examples have already been given. There are upsides, but the longer-term position inevitably depends on negotiations yet to play out.

Not really Turbo. You are right the news article did say that London interest figures have spiked but the knock on effect of home based holidays increasing were predicted, not seen yet. People I know with small to medium businesses on the coast based on tourism (icecream shops, food stalls, fishing charter and a arcade) have noticed a slow down and reduction.

The holiday let's is too early to say as business now was booked last year.

Apart from that article and predictions of improvements for certain industries no one here has said they have experienced brexit to be anything better than before. Few saying things have gotten worse.

There doesn't seem to be anything substantial to base a positive feeling on other than guessing about generic businesses. Hope is good. Blind faith is something else.

[turbobloke]

Tampon said:

Hope is good. Blind faith is something else.

Once again, in a respectful manner, I would point out that hope is good but not a strategy, so while nobody 'deserves it' those sentiments above would have been useful prior to the Brexit vote by those businesses facing a potential adverse impact...prompting risk mitigation and contingency planning.

These are still short-to-medium term considerations with a mixed picture, and not the final picture by any means. We will have to wait for the denouement.

[anonymous-user]

turbobloke said:

Once again, in a respectful manner, I would point out that hope is good but not a strategy, so while nobody 'deserves it' those sentiments above would have been useful prior to the Brexit vote by those businesses facing a potential adverse impact...prompting risk mitigation and contingency planning.

These are still short-to-medium term considerations with a mixed picture, and not the final picture by any means. We will have to wait for the denouement.

Hope, I've heard that before.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/681990/Euro...

[Tampon]

turbobloke said:

Once again, in a respectful manner, I would point out that hope is good but not a strategy, so while nobody 'deserves it' those sentiments above would have been useful prior to the Brexit vote by those businesses facing a potential adverse impact...prompting risk mitigation and contingency planning.

These are still short-to-medium term considerations with a mixed picture, and not the final picture by any means. We will have to wait for the denouement.

We didn't hope, everything was saying remain.

Again "risk mitigation and contingency planning" are great buzz words, but as pointed out for a small to medium sized furniture business that has seen off other recessions, apart from wacking in capital and riding it out waiting for customers to feel confident to make large purchases (that is without a economic slow down prompting more waiting and making do). No ones table suddenly collapses and people have to find 2k to buy a new one, most people can make do with what they have til a better more secure time. How many other successful small business will suffer similar due to others votes against a sea of expert advise?

Contingency plan is to fold the business, make redundancies and sell up and retire. Fine for Dad, st for employees. Taking that policy before the vote seems a bit harsh. Starting to invest in a completely new market, sporting goods? just mirrors? all these things are not viable alternatives before the vote. Dad has the money in the bank to ride it out so he has a plan if needed, he is judging wether he will see that money back ever with a guessed upturn with Brexit in the future. Experts widely say possibility unlikely, what should he do?

I except that the st going on now might be short to medium term (like that is acceptable for only possible gains), but that seems to be a price that is hard to pay for maybe potential improvements.

As I have said before, right now nothing positive, maybe the same for the moment for most, few benefits for some (but we can't find anyone here with first hand experience), medium term the same as admitted by many pro Brexit supporters inc yourself with decent reasonable considerations. Negatives for development in science, Arts culture, possible beginning of brain drain, changes in housing market not indicating much else other than a drop (some predict housemarket crash inc institute of surveyors today). Other areas I don;t know of might be suffering as well, some other firsthand experiences here. We will find out in the future. We have always felt a recession first due to the nature of the product sold, some might say a canary in the mine.

Long term - hopes, predictions and promises, fingers crossed they are true. Other side of the coin, there are predictions for no improvements, same immigration, no increase in NHS funding.

Dad doesn't deserve it, but that is business, but not accepting the fallout from choices made feels like pulling the rug out from people and then saying you should have expected it and you need to sort yourself out as falling on your arse is only short term. Also don't look to complain about being flat on the floor to the people who pulled the rug,

Again, I respect people wanted to leave and voted so (only just), but respect peoples right to be bloody angry that they are paying the price for something they didn't want through other peoples decisions in a time of prosperity and accept the negatives that are happening, not might be, are. Try not to white wash over them with vagaries about potential improvements and future guesses that might happen and are contested by knowledgable people.

I have enjoyed talking to your Turbo, is has been civil but I don't feel we are getting anywhere. I came here hoping to hear about real positives, wanting o in fact. I have found only one article about holidays in London. I have experience of many different areas and business suffering, others have also spoken of troubles. We are only 5 weeks in and it is looking bleak for some and no change for others. I hope to god it turns around but can;t see how it will alongside experts in the press and industry. I hope others taking that on board when they are super happy about the out vote. Blind faith, nice, but don;t expect others to sing a happy tune when they see different through experiences.

[turbobloke]

Tampon said:

turbobloke said:

Once again, in a respectful manner, I would point out that hope is good but not a strategy, so while nobody 'deserves it' those sentiments above would have been useful prior to the Brexit vote by those businesses facing a potential adverse impact...prompting risk mitigation and contingency planning.

These are still short-to-medium term considerations with a mixed picture, and not the final picture by any means. We will have to wait for the denouement.

We didn't hope, everything was saying remain.

After the 2015 election, polls and everything could whistle Dixie and it would mean little.

Tampon said:

Again "risk mitigation and contingency planning" are great buzz words, but as pointed out for a small to medium sized furniture business that has seen off other recessions, apart from wacking in capital and riding it out waiting for customers to feel confident to make large purchases (that is without a economic slow down prompting more waiting and making do).

Somebody else in the same business as you has been offering suggestions.

They're not buzzwords alone, the idea behind doing what you can to offset known risks and making contingency plans looking ahead is to limit the adverse impact of a potential change. Any business can do it to the extent that their sector and their acumen will allow.

Tampon said:

No ones table suddenly collapses and people have to find 2k to buy a new one, most people can make do with what they have til a better more secure time. How many other successful small business will suffer similar due to others votes against a sea of expert advise?

Expert advice helped about as much as it helped with their many and detailed advance warnings about the GFC.

Running your own business surely means taking a measured view based on your own judgement? It did for me anyway. The experts who pontificate have no responsibility and no impact from what's been happening to your business recently. Maintaining the same level of respect, that's the responsibility of each business owner with regard to their own business. Blame transfer isn't really worth the effort.

Tampon said:

Contingency plan is to fold the business, make redundancies and sell up and retire. Fine for Dad, st for employees.

Hardly, that's response after the fact.

Tampon said:

Taking that policy before the vote seems a bit harsh.

Somebody in your line of work may be better placed to respond to that.

Tampon said:

Starting to invest in a completely new market, sporting goods? just mirrors?

See above.

Tampon said:

Dad has the money in the bank to ride it out so he has a plan if needed, he is judging wether he will see that money back ever with a guessed upturn with Brexit in the future. Experts widely say possibility unlikely, what should he do?

Firstly look at the recent performance of 'experts' with the 2007/8/9 GFC, 2015 GE and 2016 referendum.

Take it from there...

Tampon said:

As I have said before, right now nothing positive, maybe the same for the moment for most, few benefits for some (but we can't find anyone here with first hand experience), medium term the same as admitted by many pro Brexit supporters inc yourself with decent reasonable considerations.

I'm not usually tempted to speak for anyone else and will only add that from my perspective it's no change for most, carp for some, good news for others.

Tampon said:

Dad doesn't deserve it...

Business isn't personal, marketplace permission to continue is only ever conditional.

Tampon said:

....but that is business...

Agreed.

Tampon said:

...but not accepting the fallout from choices made feels like pulling the rug out from people and then saying you should have expected it and you need to sort yourself out as falling on your arse is only short term. Also don't look to complain about being flat on the floor to the people who pulled the rug

Nobody, except for individual vested interests, voted with Business X in mind, it was about the future direction of the country, inside or outside the EU.

If a business is going to continue trading, what else is there to do but sort something out? If it's not, that's a different matter.

Mrs TB has owned and run two businesses, one retail and one import/export. The first did very well for a number of years then macroeconomic conditions went against it, so she closed up and started the second, which also went well for a number of years until a particular change in transit costs cut deeply into profit but at that time she was minded to stop trading. This sort of thing happens all the time in all sorts of sectors, nobody has started pulling rugs in that sense.

Tampon said:

Again, I respect people wanted to leave and voted so (only just), but respect peoples right to be bloody angry that they are paying the price for something they didn't want through other peoples decisions in a time of prosperity and accept the negatives that are happening, not might be, are.

I've hesitated from mentioning my own businesses which is why Mrs TB got a mention above but at this stage it's relevant...I knew from recent experience and Labour's policy direction that if they'd won the elections in 2010 or 2015 then my turnover and profit would have been significantly up compared to a Conservative win. Not wanting risk mitigation and contingency planning to be mere buzzwords, my planning included taking account of a Conservative win...we got a Coalition then a Tory government, and as I'd done what I could the idea of pulling rugs just didn't figure. BTW I voted Conservative.

Tampon said:

Try not to white wash over them with vagaries about potential improvements and future guesses that might happen and are contested by knowledgable people.

Not only tried but succeeded. Do quote me where I whitewashed anything, equally where I pointed out something future-wise e.g. fisheries industry without acknowledging that it wasn't now and wasn't certain.

I accepted your account of your business right from the off.

Tampon said:

I have enjoyed talking to your Turbo, is has been civil but I don't feel we are getting anywhere.

OK fair enough, all the best.

[AJS-]

Of course there's nothing positive yet. Nothing has actually changed. A bit of uncertainty has probably hit consumer confidence so yes, all the effects so far are negative.

Without wishing to be rude about your father's personal circumstances it sounds like a business he is ready to get out of anyway. In 30 years he has survived a few recessions, currency troughs and peaks, consumer slow downs and I dare say other bumps in the road.

It's entirely up to him whether he chooses to ride out this one, shut up shop or pass the business on to someone else.

Going around complaining that Brexit is an unmitigated disaster a month after the vote because people seem a bit less inclined to buy expensive sofas that they did a couple of months ago doesn't seem like much of an answer.

[///ajd]

TB you say no one voted with Business X in mind unless they had vested interests.

In my case and I suspect many others that is just not true - the wide range of businesses that stood to lose out in brexit was extensive and the risk to jobs across the board was a key reason to vote remain - to protect them. That certainly weighed in my vote, even though my own job is relatively unaffected.

All those jobs = employment, GDP, tax, govt spend, less austerity etc. more money for NHS. Better alround for the country.

Putting all that at risk for brexit looks pretty lame to me now given the only objective being given on here for a brexit negotiation (when all the above could be at stake) is "immigration". Nothing else has been put forward. Even when talk is of taking back control, no one can offer a single decision they want to make now.

To dismiss remain voters as having individual vested interests is demonstrably ignorant.

[anonymous-user]

Tampon's situation.....sorry why the feck did you have to call yourself that?!!
His situation highlights what I perceive to be a bigger issue. Please correct me if I am wrong here. In the industry he is in there is a massive reliance on European manufacturers and product. From my own experience it seems that many European companies are the result of generations, family members, tight control, loyalty, fiscal self sufficiency and stability and a refusal to sell out. Some of these companies have grown to be very large and very successful. On the other hand we have our own equivalents. Companies forgetting quality, outsourcing, lack of loyalty, people get fked over and leave or fk the company over and leave, start their own business in direct competition with the old one. All the hard work and ideas become fragmented because someone thought they could do a better job or someone thought they could get more for themselves. Some would call that entrepreneurship perhaps. What that industry needs is time-served people who know their work, and that goes for the man sticking a bit of foam on the frame and the guy tacking a bit of upholstery over that. That's because sticking a bit of foam on isn't just sticking a bit of foam on. That industry needs a certain level of sophistication in terms of production quality and efficiency and in terms of aesthetic design and technical design. To thrive companies need the reputation earned in time spent improving and winning. We talk on another thread about automation, well that industry still involves a level of craft that a machine could not achieve but there are many places where automation is pivotal in raising the bar in productivity and TQM. Now automation really is only useful beyond a certain level of production and is only really affordable after a certain time. I believe that many esteemed European manufacturers and designers are where they are because of all these factors, something which I think British companies, in general, are not grounded and established enough to achieve. So then the buyer puts a lot of his eggs in the European basket because in many ways the product is far superior and therefore more attractive to his clients. So we shouldn't be in a position where we have too many eggs in one basket but the British have brought this on ourselves. Thankfully now we seem to be turning the corner in some industries, starting to take on the world again.

[turbobloke]

///ajd said:

TB you say no one voted with Business X in mind unless they had vested interests.

In my case and I suspect many others that is just not true - the wide range of businesses that stood to lose out in brexit was extensive and the risk to jobs across the board was a key reason to vote remain - to protect them. That certainly weighed in my vote, even though my own job is relatively unaffected.

You still haven't named Business X in your case. A wide range of businesses isn't a particular business, the (understandable) basis for self-interest. Did people go to Companies House files and pick a random business? Most odd if so.

///ajd said:

All those jobs = employment, GDP, tax, govt spend, less austerity etc. more money for NHS. Better alround for the country.

All what jobs? Is that a reference to the Remain porky about 3 million unemployed or the unnamed Business X?

///ajd said:

Putting all that at risk for brexit looks pretty lame to me...

All what?

///ajd said:

...now given the only objective being given on here for a brexit negotiation (when all the above could be at stake) is "immigration".

That's not the case.

///ajd said:

Nothing else has been put forward.

Even when talk is of taking back control...

So yes indeed - that, or a more realistic version of it, has been put forward. In particular a future where more (not total) power to take more (not all) decisions in more (not all) policy areas has been put forward, many times.

Saying 'nothing has been put forward' followed immediately by an acknowledgement that something albeit misdescribed has actually been put forward is par for the course at this stage.

[AC43]

hornetrider said:

Tampon said:

Well overnight my father furniture business has stopped, literally no one came into the shops for the first couple of weeks after Brexit.

How odd. I haven't stopped shopping since the referendum and judging by the activity when I go out nor has anyone else.

Edited by hornetrider on Saturday 30th July 08:49

According my local estate agent about a third of pre-Brexit deals are going ahead as planned. About a third are now totally dead. And the final third have turned into a gazundering circle fk.

Spoke to my mortgage broker today and he told me a similar story.

So hardly surprising that furniture sales have dropped off a cliff.

Still, we'll always have Vera Lynne.

[Murph7355]

AC43 said:

...
So hardly surprising that furniture sales have dropped off a cliff.
...

And yet I'm in the market for a couple of sofas and lead times for the ones I would like are 12-14 weeks and cannot be moved. Some bugger's buying furniture and I wish they'd stop as it would surely shorten lead times

[///ajd]

turbobloke said:

Nobody, except for individual vested interests, voted with Business X in mind, it was about the future direction of the country, inside or outside the EU.

So yes indeed - that, or a more realistic version of it, has been put forward. In particular a future where more (not total) power to take more (not all) decisions in more (not all) policy areas has been put forward, many times.

The first quote implied no one could vote to protect any business unless they had a vested interest. If you didn't mean this, then good, as it would be a stupid thing to say - it was and is obvious a whole load of companies will be better off if we stay in the EU and most of them said so very clearly. It was a key reason to vote remain.

For the second part, where others struggled earlier, can you give us some examples of this new power and the enabling decisions we will now make?

[s2art]

///ajd said:

For the second part, where others struggled earlier, can you give us some examples of this new power and the enabling decisions we will now make?

For starters who gets access to our fishing grounds. Who gets to have residency in the UK. Who gets to decide our environmental policies. Which court is our supreme court etc etc.

[///ajd]

s2art said:

///ajd said:

For the second part, where others struggled earlier, can you give us some examples of this new power and the enabling decisions we will now make?

For starters who gets access to our fishing grounds. Who gets to have residency in the UK. Who gets to decide our environmental policies. Which court is our supreme court etc etc.

Access to our fishing grounds?

Thats the killer first decision?

Give me strength - did you not see how the "shall we throw the city under a bus to do more fishing" thread went?

[s2art]

///ajd said:

s2art said:

///ajd said:

For the second part, where others struggled earlier, can you give us some examples of this new power and the enabling decisions we will now make?

For starters who gets access to our fishing grounds. Who gets to have residency in the UK. Who gets to decide our environmental policies. Which court is our supreme court etc etc.

Access to our fishing grounds?

Thats the killer first decision?

Give me strength - did you not see how the "shall we throw the city under a bus to do more fishing" thread went?

There are many decisions, why do you think access to the fishing grounds is a killer? Your question was give examples of new powers and the enabling decisions we will make, not some order of importance. Try asking sensible questions.

[///ajd]

s2art said:

///ajd said:

s2art said:

///ajd said:

For the second part, where others struggled earlier, can you give us some examples of this new power and the enabling decisions we will now make?

For starters who gets access to our fishing grounds. Who gets to have residency in the UK. Who gets to decide our environmental policies. Which court is our supreme court etc etc.

Access to our fishing grounds?

Thats the killer first decision?

Give me strength - did you not see how the "shall we throw the city under a bus to do more fishing" thread went?

There are many decisions, why do you think access to the fishing grounds is a killer? Your question was give examples of new powers and the enabling decisions we will make, not some order of importance. Try asking sensible questions.

You decided that quote it first. No-one forced you.

It speaks volumes that you did.

[s2art]

///ajd said:

s2art said:

///ajd said:

s2art said:

///ajd said:

For the second part, where others struggled earlier, can you give us some examples of this new power and the enabling decisions we will now make?

For starters who gets access to our fishing grounds. Who gets to have residency in the UK. Who gets to decide our environmental policies. Which court is our supreme court etc etc.

Access to our fishing grounds?

Thats the killer first decision?

Give me strength - did you not see how the "shall we throw the city under a bus to do more fishing" thread went?

There are many decisions, why do you think access to the fishing grounds is a killer? Your question was give examples of new powers and the enabling decisions we will make, not some order of importance. Try asking sensible questions.

You decided that quote it first. No-one forced you.

It speaks volumes that you did.

Only to you. Seek help.

[powerstroke]

s2art said:

Only to you. Seek help.

Sadly he won't , to him in Britain there is no manufacting of anything no industry, no chemical or plastics, cars,machinery civil engineering etc ,its a choice between the city or fishing !!, now we have voted to leave the EU its the end for him there is nothing left, he is a broken man and all he can do is make post after pointless post on a car forum.....

[Tampon]

Murph7355 said:

And yet I'm in the market for a couple of sofas and lead times for the ones I would like are 12-14 weeks and cannot be moved. Some bugger's buying furniture and I wish they'd stop as it would surely shorten lead times

That is a standard lead. You can only buy pre made sofa on a shorter timescale. Remember they are ordered, made and transported either from china or eastern Europe.

No one is making a stock of sofas right now as there is no one to sell them to.