Politics in France

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BlackLabel

13,251 posts

122 months

Sunday 12th March 2017
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BlackLabel

13,251 posts

122 months

Tuesday 28th March 2017
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"(Reuters) - Centrist Emmanuel Macron would trounce far-right leader Marine Le Pen in France's presidential election if, as seems increasingly likely, the two face off in the second and final round of the contest on May 7, a poll showed on Tuesday.

The Ipsos poll was the latest of many to show Macron and Le Pen six or seven percentage points ahead of erstwhile favorite Francois Fillon, who has been engulfed by a financial scandal involving his British wife, Penelope, and two of his children."

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/mobile.reuters.com/ar...

Murph7355

37,648 posts

255 months

Wednesday 29th March 2017
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Le Pen was on Newsnight tonight.

I thought she handled the interview very well - came across as one of the most calm Euroscpetics I've heard and batted back the more ridiculous questions fairly and firmly.

It will be interesting to see what the French people think. I doubt she'll get elected. But I wonder if her support will increase.

hyphen

26,262 posts

89 months

Wednesday 29th March 2017
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Following extended police interviews, Fillons wife has now been formally charged with 3 criminal offences over the fake job scandal. Embezzlement of public funds, aggravated fraud and misapporopriation of public funds.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/28/fran...

pim

2,344 posts

123 months

Wednesday 29th March 2017
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Murph7355 said:
Le Pen was on Newsnight tonight.

I thought she handled the interview very well - came across as one of the most calm Euroscpetics I've heard and batted back the more ridiculous questions fairly and firmly.

It will be interesting to see what the French people think. I doubt she'll get elected. But I wonder if her support will increase.
She is a fascist with grand ideas.The French people won't be stupid enough to vote for her.But the way people behave voting wise in Europe the UK included it is anybody's guess

spaximus

4,230 posts

252 months

Wednesday 29th March 2017
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pim said:
Murph7355 said:
Le Pen was on Newsnight tonight.

I thought she handled the interview very well - came across as one of the most calm Euroscpetics I've heard and batted back the more ridiculous questions fairly and firmly.

It will be interesting to see what the French people think. I doubt she'll get elected. But I wonder if her support will increase.
She is a fascist with grand ideas.The French people won't be stupid enough to vote for her.But the way people behave voting wise in Europe the UK included it is anybody's guess
Didn't the world say the same about Trump? Racist, check. Sexist, check. And yet they still voted him in as against the established political system they saw him as better. Le Penn is making ground as French people are very patriotic and many feel the threat from none French has become so large that a change is needed.

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Wednesday 29th March 2017
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spaximus said:
Didn't the world say the same about Trump? Racist, check. Sexist, check. And yet they still voted him in as against the established political system they saw him as better. Le Penn is making ground as French people are very patriotic and many feel the threat from none French has become so large that a change is needed.
Is she making ground? From a friend in Paris (given she would never vote for her anyway) it seems that she's losing ground. As predictions go, my money would be on Emmanuel Macron.

Digga

40,206 posts

282 months

Wednesday 29th March 2017
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jjlynn27 said:
Is she making ground? From a friend in Paris (given she would never vote for her anyway) it seems that she's losing ground. As predictions go, my money would be on Emmanuel Macron.
Tough call isn't it? The mainstream media and the metropolitan liberals have been out of step twice recently; UK and USA. It's hard to get an objective view and, I suspect, in France, as in the UK and USA, people will be deliberately coy about their actual voting preferences, as is their prerogative.

My gut says Le Pen won't win, but then we're talking about the French population, whose appetite for protest and idiosyncrasy is formidable.

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Wednesday 29th March 2017
quotequote all
Digga said:
jjlynn27 said:
Is she making ground? From a friend in Paris (given she would never vote for her anyway) it seems that she's losing ground. As predictions go, my money would be on Emmanuel Macron.
Tough call isn't it? The mainstream media and the metropolitan liberals have been out of step twice recently; UK and USA. It's hard to get an objective view and, I suspect, in France, as in the UK and USA, people will be deliberately coy about their actual voting preferences, as is their prerogative.

My gut says Le Pen won't win, but then we're talking about the French population, whose appetite for protest and idiosyncrasy is formidable.
Indeed.

What friend of mine is saying that she (and her friends, but they are the same socio-economic group) sees Le Pen winning the first round, then in second round getting destroyed by Macron.
Time will tell.

Digga

40,206 posts

282 months

Wednesday 29th March 2017
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In the same way as, without MPs, UKIP has profoundly influenced UK politics, so Le Pen is a symbol of a very pronounced shift in French politics.

Murph7355

37,648 posts

255 months

Wednesday 29th March 2017
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jjlynn27 said:
Indeed.

What friend of mine is saying that she (and her friends, but they are the same socio-economic group) sees Le Pen winning the first round, then in second round getting destroyed by Macron.
Time will tell.
Any idea what the relative weights of Paris versus the provinces are?

I wonder if we'll see something similar to this country and that the outcome will depend on things like relative "wealth" (for want of a better word) between metropolitan areas/views versus elsewhere.

XM5ER

5,087 posts

247 months

Wednesday 29th March 2017
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jjlynn27 said:
Is she making ground? From a friend in Paris (given she would never vote for her anyway) it seems that she's losing ground. As predictions go, my money would be on Emmanuel Macron.
Paris, London, NY, Washington, LA. Large populations that forget that a large number of their fellow countrymen do not live in their town. The flyover states gave the US to Trump and "the rest of the UK outside London" delivered Brexit. In France the population distribution is a lot less capital centric than the UK so Parisians may have even less say in the outcome than Londoners would in the UK. IMO

Wobbegong

15,077 posts

168 months

Wednesday 29th March 2017
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Murph7355 said:
jjlynn27 said:
Indeed.

What friend of mine is saying that she (and her friends, but they are the same socio-economic group) sees Le Pen winning the first round, then in second round getting destroyed by Macron.
Time will tell.
Any idea what the relative weights of Paris versus the provinces are?

I wonder if we'll see something similar to this country and that the outcome will depend on things like relative "wealth" (for want of a better word) between metropolitan areas/views versus elsewhere.
I think the trouble with a Parisian point of view is that it is usually quite detached from the rest of France. It's a bit like saying London = UK whereas the reality is quite different.
Where I lived in France there was a lot of poverty and unemployment (Charente) at the time and some felt Paris was taking all the money and not helping them. Not sure how things are now, but in 2001I was helping kids to buy their rugby kit as their parents couldn't afford it. I think it explains why I encountered a bit of hostility from some of the other players / locals as I'd 'taken the job' of a French player.

I think the election will be quite close, especially with the recent victories for both Brexit and Trump which might help the voter to decide against the media wishes. On the other hand Trump & Brexit could encourage even stronger voting from those against Le Penn and see a high anti-FN turnout. I wouldn't want to put a lot of money on it either way!

jjlynn27

7,935 posts

108 months

Wednesday 29th March 2017
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Murph7355 said:
jjlynn27 said:
Indeed.

What friend of mine is saying that she (and her friends, but they are the same socio-economic group) sees Le Pen winning the first round, then in second round getting destroyed by Macron.
Time will tell.
Any idea what the relative weights of Paris versus the provinces are?

I wonder if we'll see something similar to this country and that the outcome will depend on things like relative "wealth" (for want of a better word) between metropolitan areas/views versus elsewhere.
Absolutely none on Paris v provinces. No idea how will it pan out, but I'd imagine it'll be more similar to Klompenland than the UK.

Not too long to see how it'll pan out.

Digga

40,206 posts

282 months

Wednesday 29th March 2017
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XM5ER said:
jjlynn27 said:
Is she making ground? From a friend in Paris (given she would never vote for her anyway) it seems that she's losing ground. As predictions go, my money would be on Emmanuel Macron.
Paris, London, NY, Washington, LA. Large populations that forget that a large number of their fellow countrymen do not live in their town. The flyover states gave the US to Trump and "the rest of the UK outside London" delivered Brexit. In France the population distribution is a lot less capital centric than the UK so Parisians may have even less say in the outcome than Londoners would in the UK. IMO
Certainly easy to forget that, despite the size or Paris, the size of the rest of France is enormous. It's a big old nation.

spaximus

4,230 posts

252 months

Wednesday 29th March 2017
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jjlynn27 said:
spaximus said:
Didn't the world say the same about Trump? Racist, check. Sexist, check. And yet they still voted him in as against the established political system they saw him as better. Le Penn is making ground as French people are very patriotic and many feel the threat from none French has become so large that a change is needed.
Is she making ground? From a friend in Paris (given she would never vote for her anyway) it seems that she's losing ground. As predictions go, my money would be on Emmanuel Macron.
As others have said, in Paris, where there is a huge immigrant population know but France is a big country and it is outside these areas she is popular. Small towns have been given immigrants to house and this has caused friction.

My brother lives in Northern France and he is shocked by how many are supporting her publically in his area who knows how many privately.

People do not want to be seen racist so claim to support one thing and then vote the opposite. Remember Paddy Ashdown said he would eat his hat if the exit poles were right on Brexit after the previous poles had said we would stay.

Never underestimate people who feel let down.

dandarez

13,245 posts

282 months

Wednesday 12th April 2017
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BlackLabel said:
You barsteward! biggrin

You just took me to the Grauniad and that 'little boy red' Owen Jones, pleading for another price of a cup of coffee to keep it alive!
Fortunately, I didn't stay long enough to read its propaganda.

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

122 months

Thursday 20th April 2017
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BlackLabel

13,251 posts

122 months

Saturday 22nd April 2017
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It's polling day for round 1 tomorrow.

"As the French Go to the Polls, Uncertainty Is the Only Sure Bet"

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.nytimes.com/...