Politics in France

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Art0ir

Original Poster:

9,401 posts

169 months

Thursday 25th August 2016
quotequote all
One of the popular chaps in the running for the Socialist party wants out the EU.

Nicolas Sarkozy is running again, promising to lock up 10,000 Muslism "suspected of being radicalised", wants to tear up the Lisbon treaty and remove EU supremacy over French law.

Marin Le Pen and her band of lunatics (extreme left economics, extreme right social policies) are looking set to mount a genuine challenge next Spring.

The economy continues to falter and it's starting to hurt people in their wallets.

How do we think it will end? Similar scenarios in Spain, Portugal, Italy, etc. Will 2017 see the real rise of populism/disfranchisement across Europe?


RicksAlfas

13,354 posts

243 months

Thursday 25th August 2016
quotequote all
I was talking to a French chap last night and he said he could fully understand why we voted out. I said that they had some "interesting" elections coming up next year and he sighed and said they had, but he thought it was much easier for us to be independent of Europe because we were an island. He felt the desire to follow us out was there, but not the will to actually do it.

Back to your OP, yes, France is in a mess. /Gallic shrug.

Digga

40,204 posts

282 months

Thursday 25th August 2016
quotequote all
RicksAlfas said:
Gallic shrug.
Garlic!? Shrug!? The dirty...

Back to the OP, the real issue with French politics is a total lack of economical reason and reality. Any problem you encounter will generally be worse if you face financial difficulties. As the recent labour reform riots demonstrate, bringing France into line a a modern, efficient post-industrial economy is proving extremely difficult, so we can therefore assume that whatever other challenges it meets, it will do so whilst also fighting economic difficulties.

pim

2,344 posts

123 months

Thursday 25th August 2016
quotequote all
Digga said:
RicksAlfas said:
Gallic shrug.
Garlic!? Shrug!? The dirty...

Back to the OP, the real issue with French politics is a total lack of economical reason and reality. Any problem you encounter will generally be worse if you face financial difficulties. As the recent labour reform riots demonstrate, bringing France into line a a modern, efficient post-industrial economy is proving extremely difficult, so we can therefore assume that whatever other challenges it meets, it will do so whilst also fighting economic difficulties.
That is a strong judgement about a country that happens not to follow the American British doctrine.

What has labour reform brought to the British shores? Zero hrs contracts.Something to be proud of.

Digga

40,204 posts

282 months

Thursday 25th August 2016
quotequote all
pim said:
That is a strong judgement about a country that happens not to follow the American British doctrine.

What has labour reform brought to the British shores? Zero hrs contracts.Something to be proud of.
My opinions are nowhere near as strong as those of my French friends, or those who work for MNC's with operations in France. The labour market there is utterly dysfunctional.

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

122 months

Thursday 25th August 2016
quotequote all
The early front runner Alain Juppe is staunchly pro EU and wants more European integration. So it will be interesting to see how this proceeds.

Ridgemont

6,486 posts

130 months

Thursday 25th August 2016
quotequote all
pim said:
Digga said:
RicksAlfas said:
Gallic shrug.
Garlic!? Shrug!? The dirty...

Back to the OP, the real issue with French politics is a total lack of economical reason and reality. Any problem you encounter will generally be worse if you face financial difficulties. As the recent labour reform riots demonstrate, bringing France into line a a modern, efficient post-industrial economy is proving extremely difficult, so we can therefore assume that whatever other challenges it meets, it will do so whilst also fighting economic difficulties.
That is a strong judgement about a country that happens not to follow the American British doctrine.

What has labour reform brought to the British shores? Zero hrs contracts.Something to be proud of.
Well keeping your citizens gainfully employed seems like a basic start. Unemployment twice the UK rate is not something that fills the banlieus with joy hmm? Similarly youth unemployment:



Here's some other useful information to put it in perspective: average French firms employers contribution is just under 40%. The OECD average is less than half that.




If you work the government will take, on average, just under 50% in tax. Yet if you are long term unemployed, you get just under 50% of the average wage. I'm sure you can work out the implication of that...




And finally a nice little example of the dangers of regulation; while most of the EU has been stripping back employment protection, France in the same period (2000-13) managed to increase its protection,




It's all very well saying that France stands agsinst a nefarious US/UK race to the bottom, but, summarising these graphs, if your companies pay more to employ, your employees take less as a proportion home, your long term unemployed are protected probably more than your workers, and all this while your *European competitors* are becoming more competitive, then as a country you are a bit fked.

CrutyRammers

13,735 posts

197 months

Thursday 25th August 2016
quotequote all
RicksAlfas said:
I was talking to a French chap last night and he said he could fully understand why we voted out. I said that they had some "interesting" elections coming up next year and he sighed and said they had, but he thought it was much easier for us to be independent of Europe because we were an island. He felt the desire to follow us out was there, but not the will to actually do it.

Back to your OP, yes, France is in a mess. /Gallic shrug.
The polls before the referendum showed that we were only the 4th most EU-sceptic country, France was first.

JagLover

42,265 posts

234 months

Thursday 25th August 2016
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Puggit

48,354 posts

247 months

Thursday 25th August 2016
quotequote all
Sarkozy wants to end unification of families under migrant laws - seems sensible, I assume it takes one migrant to get in and then 8 or 9 more can come...

http://linkis.com/shr.gs/080b8

rdjohn

6,135 posts

194 months

Thursday 25th August 2016
quotequote all
Much as I love life in France, it is impossible to not recognise just what a basket case its economy is becoming. The saddest thing is that when people say that they want change, they actually mean they want to go back to like it was under Mitterand and Chirac.

Male youth unemployment outside of Paris is actually nearer 40%. A good example is the young guy who does stuff in the garden for me. He is now 19 and since he was 14, he has been buying decent motorised equipment. He is a real grafter and is the sort of guy who would have made a basic living as a plumber, or mason. He has had two phoney apprenticeships with no job at the end, so he has now decided he wants to make a living gardening. He does not have a gardening diploma, so he cannot have signage on his van, advertise or do anything other than knock on doors. I recently paid him €250 for cutting my hedges. I then pay another €178 in Social charges. He will struggle for work during the winter.

With the equipment he has, I am sure he could earn a fortune in the SE England as self-employed. Here, he is destined for the scrap heap. With many others in a similar position, it will have a huge impact on housing, and disposable incomes in the future.

Another guy who has worked in mushrooms production from leaving school has just had his hours cut from 35 to 30 per week. 10-years ago, he did 8 hours overtime every week. His boss saying that during hard times people can grow carrots and potatoes in their gardens. They don't need mushrooms.

Our local vignerons are saying pretty much the same. Customers are no longer buying AOC bottled wine, they can make do with 10litre boxes and bottle it themselves, they have plenty of spare time. The village shop keeps closing as people are looking for bargains: the Boulangerie have not increased prices for the last 10 years. Flour has increased significantly.

Not being in the Euro would certainly help their position. That is what the left have now recognised, but sadly, they would also want to revert to old-world well left of centre politics. They need a Thatcherite revolution more than a Brexit style solution.

Digga

40,204 posts

282 months

Thursday 25th August 2016
quotequote all
rdjohn said:
Male youth unemployment outside of Paris is actually nearer 40%. A good example is the young guy who does stuff in the garden for me. He is now 19 and since he was 14, he has been buying decent motorised equipment. He is a real grafter and is the sort of guy who would have made a basic living as a plumber, or mason. He has had two phoney apprenticeships with no job at the end, so he has now decided he wants to make a living gardening. He does not have a gardening diploma, so he cannot have signage on his van, advertise or do anything other than knock on doors. I recently paid him €250 for cutting my hedges. I then pay another €178 in Social charges. He will struggle for work during the winter.
Not wishing to denigrate any of your excellent and interesting post, but distilling the problems down to one specific example give us a perfect summary of why these bureaucratic economies (FWIW, Greece is even worse) are so moribund.

It is also illustrative that none of these obscure and arcane hindrances to business and enterprise have been picked up on by the EU itself. It seems they advise on budgets, but not much else and are utterly blind to the overall business climate, let alone the situation for SMEs.

Puggit

48,354 posts

247 months

Thursday 25th August 2016
quotequote all
rdjohn said:
Our local vignerons are saying pretty much the same. Customers are no longer buying AOC bottled wine, they can make do with 10litre boxes and bottle it themselves, they have plenty of spare time. The village shop keeps closing as people are looking for bargains: the Boulangerie have not increased prices for the last 10 years. Flour has increased significantly.
Interesting info - I didn't know that about the signage etc. No wonder the only gardeners we can find charge crazy amounts!

We just returned from a holiday east of Bordeaux. The local village (pop 500) did not have a boulangerie. Quite a shock!


Wobbegong

15,077 posts

168 months

Thursday 25th August 2016
quotequote all
High unemployment is nothing new outside of Paris. I played rugby in the Charente back in 2001/2 and a few of the kids playing for the youth team I coached couldn't afford basic kit frown (I took the four of them to a local Decathlon and got them sorted!)

I had a part time job helping the local nursing students with their English, but besides that there was very little work in the immediate area. My house mate had to travel 150 miles each day for work at the Peugeot/Citroen turbo factory eek

I think the trouble with France is that it is quite vast for the population. In the UK we can job generate by using a central hub e.g Newcastle investment for Northern jobs, Cardiff /Swansea for South Wales etc but in France there are a lot of very isolated communities / towns.

Will be interesting to see their next election.

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

122 months

Tuesday 31st January 2017
quotequote all
telegraph said:
investigators are carrying out a search in the lower house of the French parliament in connection with a probe into claims that presidential candidate Francois Fillon paid his wife half a million euros to "do nothing" in a fictitious job role.

The raid was not carried out in Mr Fillon's office, according to a Reuters reporter who was at the scene.

It comes after Mr Fillon and his British wife Penelope were questioned separately on Monday over allegations she was paid €500,000 (£426,000) for a job as his parliamentary assistant while in fact steering clear of his political activities.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/31/francois-fillons-office-french-parliament-raided-investigators/

Digga

40,204 posts

282 months

Tuesday 31st January 2017
quotequote all
Wobbegong said:
Will be interesting to see their next election.
Same nonsense, in all likelihood; one of the key promises the Socialist candidate got in on was a 32 hour working week. Says it all really. Utterly clueless when it comes to job creation. They are doomed.

matsoc

853 posts

131 months

Tuesday 31st January 2017
quotequote all
Digga said:
Wobbegong said:
Will be interesting to see their next election.
Same nonsense, in all likelihood; one of the key promises the Socialist candidate got in on was a 32 hour working week. Says it all really. Utterly clueless when it comes to job creation. They are doomed.
The Socialist candidate Benoît Hamon has very little chances to reach the ballot in the general elections, it could be a centre-right vs far-right ballot

Digga

40,204 posts

282 months

Tuesday 31st January 2017
quotequote all
matsoc said:
Digga said:
Wobbegong said:
Will be interesting to see their next election.
Same nonsense, in all likelihood; one of the key promises the Socialist candidate got in on was a 32 hour working week. Says it all really. Utterly clueless when it comes to job creation. They are doomed.
The Socialist candidate Benoît Hamon has very little chances to reach the ballot in the general elections, it could be a centre-right vs far-right ballot
It matters not. The very fact any main party candidate can spout such risible nonsense is key to understanding the overall mindset and brokenness of the commercial and economic discourse. It is symptomatic.

Atomic12C

5,180 posts

216 months

Tuesday 31st January 2017
quotequote all
Ridgemont said:
It's all very well saying that France stands agsinst a nefarious US/UK race to the bottom, but, summarising these graphs, if your companies pay more to employ, your employees take less as a proportion home, your long term unemployed are protected probably more than your workers, and all this while your *European competitors* are becoming more competitive, then as a country you are a bit fked.
Visualizing all that I think you put your point across quite nicely.

hyphen

26,262 posts

89 months

Thursday 2nd February 2017
quotequote all
The presidential favourite François Fillon is in trouble.

It is bad enough that a video of his wife denying doing in any work has emerged, but now the anti-fraud team are also looking at jobs he gave to his children!