Politics in France

Author
Discussion

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

123 months

Saturday 4th February 2017
quotequote all

"France: #LePen ahead of #Macron and #Fillon and first round (BVA poll)."



https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/8278256497...

rscott

14,752 posts

191 months

Sunday 5th February 2017
quotequote all
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-...
Le Pen proposes a 10% tax on all non French employees. Can't see that being a particularly popular move - how many of the essential, but not exactly attractive or well paid, jobs are done by immigrants in France? It'd just push the cost of living up a few %

Gargamel

14,985 posts

261 months

Sunday 5th February 2017
quotequote all
rscott said:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-...
Le Pen proposes a 10% tax on all non French employees. Can't see that being a particularly popular move - how many of the essential, but not exactly attractive or well paid, jobs are done by immigrants in France? It'd just push the cost of living up a few %
Popular amongst the unemployed French though. If Le Pen can show her policies to be supporting the Proles she could win. France is very elitist, and the country versus city dynamic is really strong. Think Londoners versus Norfolk...

smifffymoto

4,547 posts

205 months

Sunday 5th February 2017
quotequote all
In reality would be London vs the rest of the country.

Digga

40,316 posts

283 months

Tuesday 7th February 2017
quotequote all
smifffymoto said:
In reality would be London vs the rest of the country.
Think Brexit, or UKIP in the general election, and then multiply that protest voting by a factor of your choice.

FN2TypeR

7,091 posts

93 months

Tuesday 7th February 2017
quotequote all
She'll walk the first round but lose the second IMO - folk will use their first vote to send a message but when it really counts they'll look elsewhere and she'll lose.

hyphen

26,262 posts

90 months

Tuesday 7th February 2017
quotequote all
Too difficult to say, the problem is that many everyday people won't publicly declare that they are voting for a party if it is associated with 'extreme' views, so will give pollsters false data a la Brexit/Trump.

If polls say she will make it easy through the second round, then I would wonder how close the runoff will be.

Budflicker

3,799 posts

184 months

Tuesday 7th February 2017
quotequote all
At the moment Le Pen is 3/1 to win the election outright. After Brexit and Trump and the feeling in France of the average French person I wouldn't rule it out.

wc98

10,391 posts

140 months

Tuesday 7th February 2017
quotequote all
Budflicker said:
At the moment Le Pen is 3/1 to win the election outright. After Brexit and Trump and the feeling in France of the average French person I wouldn't rule it out.
i can't see it myself, i think the final run off will be as far as she goes. ordinarily that would be the wake up call for change for most sensible people. the eu however .....

crankedup

25,764 posts

243 months

Tuesday 7th February 2017
quotequote all
Le penn looks all set to win through, if this transpires France are heading for the eu exit door. This must signal the death nell for the eu project imo.
Those that work for the French public services enjoy incredible generous perks, use of public facilities FOC for example, very generous maternity leave, sick pay. How the hell France can afford it all I don't know, how long it can last, who knows.
10% extra tax for non Nationals anyone? That's going to hurt.

Art0ir

Original Poster:

9,401 posts

170 months

Tuesday 7th February 2017
quotequote all
crankedup said:
Le penn looks all set to win through, if this transpires France are heading for the eu exit door. This must signal the death nell for the eu project imo.
Those that work for the French public services enjoy incredible generous perks, use of public facilities FOC for example, very generous maternity leave, sick pay. How the hell France can afford it all I don't know, how long it can last, who knows.
10% extra tax for non Nationals anyone? That's going to hurt.
Even as someone who has great disdain for the EU, Le Pen's France is not something anyone should get excited about.

Her manifesto is a patchwork quilt of the nuttiest leftist economic policies you've ever heard of with some pretty preposterous far right social ideals.

An organised roll back of the EU to what it was presented as years ago is what is required, not a collapse. Wishful thinking at this stage maybe but a disorganised disintegration from within will create a lot of chaos.

London424

12,829 posts

175 months

Tuesday 7th February 2017
quotequote all
It's certainly going to be interesting as Fillon looks like toast after the scandal, Le Pen who we know has some rather interesting ideas (to say the least) and Macron.

I didn't know that Macron has basically come from nowhere and has only recently set up the party, it's sort of like UKIP in a way with no political infrastructure behind him. He's also looking at getting rid of the 35 hour week.

So you read that Le Pen will likely lose in the second round, but it's not really clear who against!

Wobbegong

15,077 posts

169 months

Tuesday 7th February 2017
quotequote all
Art0ir said:
An organised roll back of the EU to what it was presented as years ago is what is required, not a collapse. Wishful thinking at this stage maybe but a disorganised disintegration from within will create a lot of chaos.
yes


Gargamel

14,985 posts

261 months

Tuesday 7th February 2017
quotequote all
Art0ir said:
Even as someone who has great disdain for the EU, Le Pen's France is not something anyone should get excited about.

Her manifesto is a patchwork quilt of the nuttiest leftist economic policies you've ever heard of with some pretty preposterous far right social ideals.

An organised roll back of the EU to what it was presented as years ago is what is required, not a collapse. Wishful thinking at this stage maybe but a disorganised disintegration from within will create a lot of chaos.
Agreed, she has some proper looney tunes policy, highly protectionist, anti immigration, pro deportation of non nationals, high taxes, centralised state etc

However - where have we heard that before in a successful recent election campaign.

I am already on record on here as stating she will win outright, so I am not going to backtrack, however I am NOT a supporter, it would be une castrophe'

Einion Yrth

19,575 posts

244 months

Tuesday 7th February 2017
quotequote all
Art0ir said:
An organised roll back of the EU to what it was presented as years ago is what is required,
This will not happen.
Art0ir said:
not a collapse.
This probably will.
Art0ir said:
Wishful thinking at this stage maybe but a disorganised disintegration from within will create a lot of chaos.
Hold tight, it's going to be a wild ride.

crankedup

25,764 posts

243 months

Tuesday 7th February 2017
quotequote all
Art0ir said:
crankedup said:
Le penn looks all set to win through, if this transpires France are heading for the eu exit door. This must signal the death nell for the eu project imo.
Those that work for the French public services enjoy incredible generous perks, use of public facilities FOC for example, very generous maternity leave, sick pay. How the hell France can afford it all I don't know, how long it can last, who knows.
10% extra tax for non Nationals anyone? That's going to hurt.
Even as someone who has great disdain for the EU, Le Pen's France is not something anyone should get excited about.

Her manifesto is a patchwork quilt of the nuttiest leftist economic policies you've ever heard of with some pretty preposterous far right social ideals.

An organised roll back of the EU to what it was presented as years ago is what is required, not a collapse. Wishful thinking at this stage maybe but a disorganised disintegration from within will create a lot of chaos.
Agreed, for the most part but cannot envisage the EU prepared to row back from the present stance to something more acceptable to the people It is to a greater extent, imo, that the rise of the far right is attributed to the EU and its cohorts. As in America and the UK people, ordinary every day people, are sick to the back teeth with the elite enjoying the fruits of Globalisation. The vote against the 'establishment' has been on the cards for some while, and yet still Governments chose to ignore the signals of unrest. I take the view that we will feel the change in political World and agree not all of the change will be pleasant or useful.
The establishment in the elitist commercial and political world need to take a long hard inward look at themselves.

hyphen

26,262 posts

90 months

Tuesday 7th February 2017
quotequote all
crankedup said:
Le penn looks all set to win through, if this transpires France are heading for the eu exit door. This must signal the death nell for the eu project imo.
If Martin Schulz wins over Merkel, I wouldn't be surprised if he kept the EU going at any cost even with LePenn causing issues.

rdjohn

6,176 posts

195 months

Tuesday 7th February 2017
quotequote all
hyphen said:
If Martin Schulz wins over Merkel, I wouldn't be surprised if he kept the EU going at any cost even with LePenn causing issues.
Is that the recently retired Martin Schulz?

hyphen

26,262 posts

90 months

Tuesday 7th February 2017
quotequote all
Retired from the EU only. Was part of his grand plan to attempt to take over Germany by standing against Merkel in Septembers election. Merkel's poll ratings have plummeted so he may pull it off too.

Best buddies with Junker leaving Brexit between a rock and a hard place.