Deutsche Bank - They think its all over.....
Discussion
Digga said:
ven people who had no real clue or interest about the GFC have watched and learned from that film. IMHO, Christian Bale and Steve Carrel are absolutely fantastic in their respective roles and the story really does come to life in the film.
Yeah the appeal of margin call was how they captured the atmosphere and even office politics/BS but there was nothing there of much interest, education or entertainment for most people. Michael Lewis is a great writer, if you enjoyed the The Big Short you will probably enjoy the book more, plus all the 'characters' are real in the book. Harris_I said:
I meant the film was tediously hard work, haha! 
But that was an entertaining read nevertheless.
I weirdly tend to enjoy debating the names of SPVs. Not a very efficient use of time, I admit. Currently we are running through Bond movies but once we run out I think I may morph this into Aston Martin paint colours (since they seem to overlap with Bond)...
Doh! I too thought Margin Call was the better of the 2 films. Of all the films I do like the Big Short, just because some of the characters actually resonated / or I've dealt with those just like it (I've seen the Jenga "idiosyncratic risk" model done before in a meeting). Plus I've been compared to Steve Carroll's Mark Baum (or even better Jonah Hill's Peter Brand in Money Ball). But that was an entertaining read nevertheless.I weirdly tend to enjoy debating the names of SPVs. Not a very efficient use of time, I admit. Currently we are running through Bond movies but once we run out I think I may morph this into Aston Martin paint colours (since they seem to overlap with Bond)...
fblm said:
I'd forgot about that one.Our back office was a slightly less incompetent than those guys. It was only about EUR20m, netting down some Repos. Until leaving the bank last years I still have no idea how they did it; nor why anyone was ever held accountable.
Worth noting the main Lehman UK company Lehman Brothers International (Europe) has fully repaid all creditors including unsecured creditors and agreement is current being sort on how to redistribute the surplus.
So rather than to big to fail we have solvent but still failed!!!!!!!!!!
So rather than to big to fail we have solvent but still failed!!!!!!!!!!
Mrr T said:
Worth noting the main Lehman UK company Lehman Brothers International (Europe) has fully repaid all creditors including unsecured creditors and agreement is current being sort on how to redistribute the surplus.
So rather than to big to fail we have solvent but still failed!!!!!!!!!!
Those creditors that waited until the end did very well, as claims were paid with 8% interest!So rather than to big to fail we have solvent but still failed!!!!!!!!!!
Mrr T said:
Worth noting the main Lehman UK company Lehman Brothers International (Europe) has fully repaid all creditors including unsecured creditors and agreement is current being sort on how to redistribute the surplus.
So rather than to big to fail we have solvent but still failed!!!!!!!!!!
Solvent, but illiquid. Thanks Dick for the gift of LCR and NSFR.So rather than to big to fail we have solvent but still failed!!!!!!!!!!
Whilst LBIE may well have a recovery rate of 100%, their SPVs were dens of toxic sh*te. If it took 6-8 years to prove that LBIE was solvent, then contagion is clearly an issue as the collateral chains are indeed opaque (big problem if DB goes - IF). There is a special place in hell reserved for anyone involved in Lehman Bros Special Financing. Perhaps if they put " " around special none of this s
t would've happened.Mrr T said:
Worth noting the main Lehman UK company Lehman Brothers International (Europe) has fully repaid all creditors including unsecured creditors and agreement is current being sort on how to redistribute the surplus.
So rather than to big to fail we have solvent but still failed!!!!!!!!!!
That's because Lehman's cash was held in Its European entity for tax reasons. It's very, very common for different entities within the same group to have different recovery levels because of this....when GMAC went bust it's Canadian entity had much higher recovery because of IIRC issues around pension liabilities. Bizarrely that Canadian entities only publicly held bond was issued in £ so an awful lot of UK fund managers and pension funds had a windfall gain (lost a lot less) that they had no clue about. So rather than to big to fail we have solvent but still failed!!!!!!!!!!
Last I saw LBIE was trading at 150% of principal....that was at 5% in the immediate aftermath. Not bad returns for the people that spotted it first....which was a HF called Baupost.
stongle said:
Digga said:
"cp" - what is?
Commercial Paper. I think. Unless we're talking about CP Company jackets, the thinking mans Stone Island.
O/T Apropos of Stone Island, a mate is a huge Leicester City fan (awkward last year because his wife supports what's left of Aston Villa) and is into the whole 'sports casual' look. Not being a football fan myself, I didn't realise this whole subculture - the 80's sort of thing - still exists. He has a bout 40 pairs of box-fresh Adidas classics and was forced to sell some of his extensive collection of coats when the couple got married the other year. Apparently, in the very rarefied circle, it's not the done thing to wear the same kit to matches.
I opened three new business accounts with 3 different banks over here in the Powerhouse of Europe yesterday to spread stuff around bit and each one of them said that it was already common knowledge in the industry that the DB was going to be closing a lot of branches, they just haven't said where yet.
stongle said:
The film or Sept 15th? Of the later here's some ramblings...
I was less lucky than you - trading EM and HY, cash and CDS with plenty of exposure to Lehman as a cpty. Memory is a bit hazy, but it got significantly worse in the days that followed. We cut lines to MS, GS, ML and would only trade CDS, ironically, with DB and a few others. Being asked to put a bid on the bonds issued by a Ukrainian poultry producer or a South African LBO play turned into a hilarious process involving the use of a random number generator. Only for the bid to get hit... Looking into the abyss on a daily basis got tiring very quickly. Made for a great 2009, but there were times when I really questioned my wisdom for going into trading. To add further twist to the story, I ended up at DB a year later... And for the record, even though I no longer work there, I think they will make it through, just like they have gone through a lot worse in the last 100 yearsstongle said:
Digga said:
"cp" - what is?
Commercial Paper. I think. 
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