Deutsche Bank - They think its all over.....

Deutsche Bank - They think its all over.....

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Discussion

anonymous-user

54 months

Monday 8th July 2019
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I am struggling to find a reason why one less Investment Bank should be a problem.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

198 months

Monday 8th July 2019
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Why didn’t they mention TARGET2 on the announcement?

Lucas Ayde

3,560 posts

168 months

Monday 8th July 2019
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Welshbeef said:
Why didn’t they mention TARGET2 on the announcement?
Because it's the EUs dirty secret and why the Euro is a joke.

honest_delboy

1,503 posts

200 months

Monday 8th July 2019
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Thanks for the link, saves me having to google "german cum cum"

anonymous-user

54 months

Monday 8th July 2019
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Carl_Manchester said:
This is not directed at either of you.

At risk of making sweeping generalisations, the Banking industry in London likes to label people as ‘very good’, pay them ridiculous amounts of money and the bank then goes under or needs to merge in order to survive, ideally with a Government.

It is a disease in London which started with big bang, the emperor had new clothes all along.

Anyone who has worked in these places will know, you see internal staff trying to throw each other under the corporate bus every minute of every day. Once you foster that type of internal culture at a European Bank it was never going to yield positive results.

When the CEO said in his statement that ‘DB had spread itself too thinly’, what he was really saying is ‘we entrusted the future profits of a prudent German bank with a bunch of over-paid coke fuelled Londoners who, were actually far less intelligent at making money than we expected them to be. Instead of reversing this decision, we stuck with this failing business model for another 10 years. Because, we like to pretend they are worth the money that we pay them.’

The 20 year experiment of Investment Banks paying staff members £250k-£2m in a hope that some of them hit the bullseye, some of them blindfolded, has ended in spectacular failure.

Over a 20 year period, DB Investment Bank earned less than zero profit. zero.

‘Yeah mate i got a few pals at DB and they are all st hot’

Give me a break. Give us all a break and stop perpetuating this myth as that’s all it is.

sorry I reserve the right to a rant as events like this harm the other City workers like myself who don’t subscribe to their work culture and ethics.

Is that a back office or IT chip weighing so heavily on your shoulder?

crankedup

25,764 posts

243 months

Monday 8th July 2019
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Can’t see the German Parliament rushing to the aid of DB, wonder how much private cash is still wrapped up in this bank.

NRS

22,175 posts

201 months

Monday 8th July 2019
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honest_delboy said:
Thanks for the link, saves me having to google "german cum cum"
I have a meeting with HR tomorrow, frown

stongle

5,910 posts

162 months

Monday 8th July 2019
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fblm said:
Absolutely. As an ex-rates (libor!) dinosaur these 'products' are all new to me too.
Apologies, no means to imply you or Mr. Digga are Dinosaurs; just trying to show colour to the "real world" impact of some activities Vs. Rates derivatives (where the headline is massive). No offence!


anonymous-user

54 months

Monday 8th July 2019
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stongle said:
fblm said:
Absolutely. As an ex-rates (libor!) dinosaur these 'products' are all new to me too.
Apologies, no means to imply you or Mr. Digga are Dinosaurs; just trying to show colour to the "real world" impact of some activities Vs. Rates derivatives (where the headline is massive). No offence!
None taken at all! I mostly retired in 2012 and hadn't heard of the dividend arb scandals; I appreciate the education!

Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 8th July 22:47

B'stard Child

28,418 posts

246 months

Monday 8th July 2019
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NRS said:
honest_delboy said:
Thanks for the link, saves me having to google "german cum cum"
I have a meeting with HR tomorrow, frown
rofl

Thank you both for your efforts - love PH for this sort of humour biggrin

Carl_Manchester

12,217 posts

262 months

Monday 8th July 2019
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fblm said:

Is that a back office or IT chip weighing so heavily on your shoulder?
no, not at all. IT is the primary beneficiary of these types of restructuring changes. Including IT people becoming the front-office, as they have in many places.

My beef is the perpetuation of the front office Zoo when it was apparent that this ended as a viable business model for European banks in late-2006.

The perpetuation of this myth in European banks and the subsequent scandals which it fuelled has severely impacted the reputation of the City of London.

I am glad this re-adjustment is finally happening because it means we can move on from this era.

We just have a small matter of an incoming Equities bear market to contend with next and all the dead bodies which have been buried will no doubt come out of the ground.



Digga

40,329 posts

283 months

Tuesday 9th July 2019
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fblm said:
stongle said:
fblm said:
Absolutely. As an ex-rates (libor!) dinosaur these 'products' are all new to me too.
Apologies, no means to imply you or Mr. Digga are Dinosaurs; just trying to show colour to the "real world" impact of some activities Vs. Rates derivatives (where the headline is massive). No offence!
None taken at all! I mostly retired in 2012 and hadn't heard of the dividend arb scandals; I appreciate the education!

Edited by fblm on Monday 8th July 22:47
Likewise, I was unaware of the trades and very appreciative of that clear summary.

As a mechanical engineer by trade and profession, I am less than a dinosaur in these matters!

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

198 months

Tuesday 9th July 2019
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crankedup said:
Can’t see the German Parliament rushing to the aid of DB, wonder how much private cash is still wrapped up in this bank.
Why are German savers or investors in DB taking their cash out to a safer location?
We’ve seen Bail ins in Cyprus so no doubt that could happen here in Germany too.

stongle

5,910 posts

162 months

Tuesday 9th July 2019
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Welshbeef said:
crankedup said:
Can’t see the German Parliament rushing to the aid of DB, wonder how much private cash is still wrapped up in this bank.
Why are German savers or investors in DB taking their cash out to a safer location?
We’ve seen Bail ins in Cyprus so no doubt that could happen here in Germany too.
They are not insolvent (yet), they are about to deleverage risky activities hence improving further their capital (loss absorption buffer); and likely liquidity position. The cost of providing investment banking services was simply too high and they were uncompetitive in the global space.

IF HOWEVER there is a run on retail deposits; they are going to be in trouble as the BaFiN (German regulator) approved retail deposits to count as TERM money and regulatory liquidity buffer. If they burn through the Liquidity Coverage Ratio - they are going to be in trouble.

What is further interesting, Commerzbank also sold off its equity and high risk / capital cost businesses this year to Societe Generale. For the 2 biggest German banks NOT to have an Equity business is amazing. Historically the German Govt has been highly protective of the German banking sector - particularly against foreign takeover. I think the position may well shift now. Especially if you look at some relocations to Frankfurt (Goldman Sachs), cosying up to the ECB.

Its likely this capitulation in investment banking services will continue in Europe, as these banks return to corporate and retail activities. The actions of the EC, ECB and functioning of the EUR zone are walking their banking sector out of activities - and potentially benefitting non EUR zone financial centres. There is talk of a London, Geneva and Zurich tie up. This will mean you likely have NYC in the west, UK Swiss Tie up in "European timezone" and Singapore / Hong Kong in the east.



Mrr T

12,238 posts

265 months

Tuesday 9th July 2019
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Lucas Ayde said:
Welshbeef said:
Why didn’t they mention TARGET2 on the announcement?
Because it's the EUs dirty secret and why the Euro is a joke.
Or because T2 balances are between the € central banks and nothing to do with DB.

Since the T2 balances are published monthly by the ECB they are not very good at keeping secrets.

Digga

40,329 posts

283 months

Tuesday 9th July 2019
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stongle said:
There is talk of a London, Geneva and Zurich tie up. This will mean you likely have NYC in the west, UK Swiss Tie up in "European timezone"...
Coincidentally, that was an idea that occurred to me during an idle moment (I have quite a few) last week. It makes a lot of sense to forge a strong non-EU European partnership, especially in the financial industry.

The Swiss are very unlikely to toe the EU line, so post Brexit, it makes perfect sense for us to agree broader co-operation with them.

stongle

5,910 posts

162 months

Tuesday 9th July 2019
quotequote all
Mrr T said:
Lucas Ayde said:
Welshbeef said:
Why didn’t they mention TARGET2 on the announcement?
Because it's the EUs dirty secret and why the Euro is a joke.
Or because T2 balances are between the € central banks and nothing to do with DB.

Since the T2 balances are published monthly by the ECB they are not very good at keeping secrets.
hmmmmm, not really. The Target2 in-balance and potential default / contagion risks are massive. The Bundesbank has near EUR1trillion in Credits, with Italy alone accounting for near 0.5trillion of liabilities. When or if a default happens, the banks bond positions (which they are required to hold as BASLE3 liquidity buffer) get marked to market (previously these were designated AFS - Available For Sale and NOT marked but under IFRS9 NOW are required to be valued - which the EC is massively pushing back on despite agreeing at G20). The defaulting Govt bonds go to zero and the banks holding them (all Eurozone banks given BASLE rules) burn through capital and liquidity buffes and go into default. Target2 speeds up a contagion event to warp speed - and because the EC insists retail and investment banks MUST rollup to one consolidated entity - the whole house crashes in on itself REGARDLESS of central bank exposures.

Greshamst

2,067 posts

120 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/09/d...

News crew hanging around outside Deutsche see bespoke tailors visiting the offices for suit fittings... not great timing!

CharlesElliott

2,009 posts

282 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
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I left DB in January. Seems like even better foresight than I would have credited myself for! I wasn't in rates or equities though.....

It is a very difficult situation for those who have lost their jobs, those who will over the coming months and those who will be left to work through the mess that results. Maybe in a few years, things will turn for the better.

Bobajobbob

1,442 posts

96 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
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Greshamst said:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/09/d...

News crew hanging around outside Deutsche see bespoke tailors visiting the offices for suit fittings... not great timing!
Those men were quite obviously just visiting the bank in order to deposit their bitcoins.