CETA dead? Whom should be more worried, UK or Eurozone?
Discussion
I believe that any UK EU agreement is subject to qualified majority voting, not giving the Wallonians a veto.
Also, whilst CETA will give us a good starting point for an agreement with Canada, you can be sure that it is filled with more compromises between the parties than a simple bi lateral agreement would have to be, so we should be able to do a better job direct.
One of the key reasons CETA has been trashed is the ISDS provisions. Nobody's ever accused me of being a socialist, but frankly, these stink.
"CETA includes a far-reaching investment chapter that will empower foreign investors and multinational corporations. This is widely seen as the ‘new EU model’ investment treaty, and as a blueprint for what the EU will try to insert into the EU-U.S. Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Under this chapter, Canada and the EU commit themselves to strong market access rules, prohibition of performance requirements, non-discriminatory treatment of foreign investors and high standards of investor protection. Through the proposed investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanism, foreign investors will be granted the special privilege of suing host governments and claiming compensation for all kinds of state ctions, while bypassing domestic judicial systems and their independent courts".
"CETA includes a far-reaching investment chapter that will empower foreign investors and multinational corporations. This is widely seen as the ‘new EU model’ investment treaty, and as a blueprint for what the EU will try to insert into the EU-U.S. Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Under this chapter, Canada and the EU commit themselves to strong market access rules, prohibition of performance requirements, non-discriminatory treatment of foreign investors and high standards of investor protection. Through the proposed investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanism, foreign investors will be granted the special privilege of suing host governments and claiming compensation for all kinds of state ctions, while bypassing domestic judicial systems and their independent courts".
ATG said:
You might want to look at a map and also at the size of the commonwealth economies before getting excited.
Point well made - except on the India side..... that is the future tiny debt too. Also USA is also one of ours isn't it! For such a tiny island we gave the world USA Oz Apartheid SA
Not bad for as the Russians say an insignificant island in the North Atlantic..
ATG said:
You might want to look at a map and also at the size of the commonwealth economies before getting excited.
And in 10 years time? Even now the commonwealth is bigger than the EU, let alone the EU minus the UK.http://www.worldeconomics.com/papers/Commonwealth_...
loafer123 said:
I believe that any UK EU agreement is subject to qualified majority voting, not giving the Wallonians a veto.
Also, whilst CETA will give us a good starting point for an agreement with Canada, you can be sure that it is filled with more compromises between the parties than a simple bi lateral agreement would have to be, so we should be able to do a better job direct.
I'm not convinced by that.Also, whilst CETA will give us a good starting point for an agreement with Canada, you can be sure that it is filled with more compromises between the parties than a simple bi lateral agreement would have to be, so we should be able to do a better job direct.
Someone here has explained and I saw it on the news yesterday.
The qualified majority under A50 only relates to our exit terms from the EU. Any trade deal that is effected simultaneously or thereafter would need unanimous agreement.
ATG said:
(Part Quote)
It highlights the degree to which the EU is virtually crippled by the power individually held by its members. Yet again this demonstrates why fear of being dragged into a superstate or controlled by Brussels was so bloody stupid.
You could argue that it underlines the concerns some voters had about a superstate or control by Brussels. The UK wants trade deals to expand it's markets outside of the EU27 because our exports are typically less than 50% to the EU and shrinking. Being held back by a minority in a small member state doesn't sound too clever, in fact just underlines how, as the EU expands, unanimous agreements become more difficult.It highlights the degree to which the EU is virtually crippled by the power individually held by its members. Yet again this demonstrates why fear of being dragged into a superstate or controlled by Brussels was so bloody stupid.
Back on topic, personally I can see the deal going ahead. The EU are now on the world stage as an organisation which is both slow to react and ultimately difficult to deal with. In some quarters (Canada at least) there will be back-room discussions saying "well, now we know why the Brits left" and the EU hierarchy will be well aware of it.
I reckon the Belgium resistance is going to come under very heavy pressure over the next week and they'll either crumble or be bribed out of the way.
b2hbm said:
ATG said:
(Part Quote)
It highlights the degree to which the EU is virtually crippled by the power individually held by its members. Yet again this demonstrates why fear of being dragged into a superstate or controlled by Brussels was so bloody stupid.
You could argue that it underlines the concerns some voters had about a superstate or control by Brussels. The UK wants trade deals to expand it's markets outside of the EU27 because our exports are typically less than 50% to the EU and shrinking. Being held back by a minority in a small member state doesn't sound too clever, in fact just underlines how, as the EU expands, unanimous agreements become more difficult.It highlights the degree to which the EU is virtually crippled by the power individually held by its members. Yet again this demonstrates why fear of being dragged into a superstate or controlled by Brussels was so bloody stupid.
b2hbm said:
Back on topic, personally I can see the deal going ahead. The EU are now on the world stage as an organisation which is both slow to react and ultimately difficult to deal with. In some quarters (Canada at least) there will be back-room discussions saying "well, now we know why the Brits left" and the EU hierarchy will be well aware of it.
I reckon the Belgium resistance is going to come under very heavy pressure over the next week and they'll either crumble or be bribed out of the way.
Yep. Brexit is a disaster for the EU, they don't want to add this clusterfI reckon the Belgium resistance is going to come under very heavy pressure over the next week and they'll either crumble or be bribed out of the way.
k to the list, it'll be a PR disaster. Efforts will be made. Poles will be greased. Envelopes will be stuffed.
PurpleMoonlight said:
I'm not convinced by that.
Someone here has explained and I saw it on the news yesterday.
The qualified majority under A50 only relates to our exit terms from the EU. Any trade deal that is effected simultaneously or thereafter would need unanimous agreement.
This was the point I was aiming at. Any trade deal needs unanimous agreement. Anyone citing that a post Brexit deal could be done easily or even pragmatically needs their bonce tested. I think this was one of the biggest issues at the heart of the brexit campaign - a deal could be blocked by any federalist state or country. Someone here has explained and I saw it on the news yesterday.
The qualified majority under A50 only relates to our exit terms from the EU. Any trade deal that is effected simultaneously or thereafter would need unanimous agreement.
Canada, Norway lite etc is a fantasy - we should stop the pretence.
The longer we are in the process, the more likely we are too tire of the procrastination. The actual post Brexit reality is going to be different to what was imagined pre June 23rd. What is interesting is contrary to the Beeb and the doom and gloom re the city, one bank is in the process of moving 100 staff out of Brussels to London. Coincidence or a smart hedge against the coming chaos?
Edited by stongle on Tuesday 25th October 10:27
ATG said:
Welshbeef said:
I cannot wait for the UK to recreate trade deals with the commonwealth.
Down with the EU up with UK power.
You might want to look at a map and also at the size of the commonwealth economies before getting excited.Down with the EU up with UK power.
Size of commonwealth economy is similar to that of the EC, bigger if you remove the UK from the EU. Population of commonwealth several times that of EC, with much more potential for development.
What's your point?
CETA may well get fudged over the coming days/weeks/months. Pretty much all big ticket EU deals seem to go through like this, although Canada may yet block some amendments/fudges. It depends how advantageous they see this deal, particularly given Brexit & imminent A50, they may wish to postpone further negotiations for now.
I suspect that the EU will be so weakened by Brexit, that its bargaining power will be severely diminished. I also believe that the Eurozone will collapse like a pack of cards in the next few (5???) years, with only Germany managing to extract itself relatively unscathed. Of course there will be sever knock-on effects to the world economy, including us, but better to be outside the EU at that stage rather than in it & having to bail-out the Mediterranean countries & France. A doomsday scenario I know, but the dinosaur that the EU has become, cannot continue down this path.
I suspect that the EU will be so weakened by Brexit, that its bargaining power will be severely diminished. I also believe that the Eurozone will collapse like a pack of cards in the next few (5???) years, with only Germany managing to extract itself relatively unscathed. Of course there will be sever knock-on effects to the world economy, including us, but better to be outside the EU at that stage rather than in it & having to bail-out the Mediterranean countries & France. A doomsday scenario I know, but the dinosaur that the EU has become, cannot continue down this path.
stongle said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
I'm not convinced by that.
Someone here has explained and I saw it on the news yesterday.
The qualified majority under A50 only relates to our exit terms from the EU. Any trade deal that is effected simultaneously or thereafter would need unanimous agreement.
This was the point I was aiming at. Any trade deal needs unanimous agreement. Anyone citing that a post Brexit deal could be done easily or even pragmatically needs their bonce tested. I think this was one of the biggest issues at the heart of the brexit campaign - a deal could be blocked by any federalist state or country. Someone here has explained and I saw it on the news yesterday.
The qualified majority under A50 only relates to our exit terms from the EU. Any trade deal that is effected simultaneously or thereafter would need unanimous agreement.
Canada, Norway lite etc is a fantasy - we should stop the pretence.
The longer we are in the process, the more likely we are too tire of the procrastination. The actual post Brexit reality is going to be different to what was imagined pre June 23rd. What is interesting is contrary to the Beeb and the doom and gloom re the city, one bank is in the process of moving 100 staff out of Brussels to London. Coincidence or a smart hedge against the coming chaos?
Edited by stongle on Tuesday 25th October 10:27
During the Art50 negotiations, which is voted on with qualified Majority voting, trade arrangements can be agreed as part of the severance package.
Once that deal is done, any further changes or new trade arrangements then have to go through the normal EU procedures, which it appears, can be bodged by the EU depending on what mood they are in.
For example they chose to have all the EU governments and their local bodies ratify the Canada-EU deal, they could have ignored the Walloon regional government had they decided on that at the start. They chose to include regional government because they thought it was politically prudent to do so.
So, in summary, Art50 can cover trade arrangements, it can pretty much include anything, but once that is signed we then have any future deals with the EU via their chosen method, which is usually full approval of all 27 on the commission.
What will also become more prevalent in the future is we will also be able to benefit from any changes made to the WTO rules with the EU, the trajectory for that is to further open up the EU to third party access for finance and service providers.
jsf said:
The way it works is slightly different to the above.
During the Art50 negotiations, which is voted on with qualified Majority voting, trade arrangements can be agreed as part of the severance package.
Once that deal is done, any further changes or new trade arrangements then have to go through the normal EU procedures, which it appears, can be bodged by the EU depending on what mood they are in.
For example they chose to have all the EU governments and their local bodies ratify the Canada-EU deal, they could have ignored the Walloon regional government had they decided on that at the start. They chose to include regional government because they thought it was politically prudent to do so.
So, in summary, Art50 can cover trade arrangements, it can pretty much include anything, but once that is signed we then have any future deals with the EU via their chosen method, which is usually full approval of all 27 on the commission.
What will also become more prevalent in the future is we will also be able to benefit from any changes made to the WTO rules with the EU, the trajectory for that is to further open up the EU to third party access for finance and service providers.
Thanks for clarification, I was of the opinion it was a Belgium specific constitutional obligation. However, I struggle to see how article 50 will include a trade deal given the time it takes to agree one - unless previously unseen pragmatism and common sense breaks out in both UK Parliament and the EU. If the UK gets trade deal lite out of article 50, but falls short on the likes of MiFID2 and Passporting which becomes subject to a vote of the 27; is a bad result for the UK.During the Art50 negotiations, which is voted on with qualified Majority voting, trade arrangements can be agreed as part of the severance package.
Once that deal is done, any further changes or new trade arrangements then have to go through the normal EU procedures, which it appears, can be bodged by the EU depending on what mood they are in.
For example they chose to have all the EU governments and their local bodies ratify the Canada-EU deal, they could have ignored the Walloon regional government had they decided on that at the start. They chose to include regional government because they thought it was politically prudent to do so.
So, in summary, Art50 can cover trade arrangements, it can pretty much include anything, but once that is signed we then have any future deals with the EU via their chosen method, which is usually full approval of all 27 on the commission.
What will also become more prevalent in the future is we will also be able to benefit from any changes made to the WTO rules with the EU, the trajectory for that is to further open up the EU to third party access for finance and service providers.
Welshbeef said:
I cannot wait for the UK to recreate trade deals with the commonwealth.
Down with the EU up with UK power.
Yes me too we screwed them when we got into bed with the dross over the channel ,Down with the EU up with UK power.
I was very happy listerning to the Australian minister saying on R2 at lunchtime how he was looking forward to a trade
deal and more opportunity for our young people to work in Aus and as they no longer make many cars how we can supply them and they will sell us wine etc .... Brexit rocks world trade world class ...
the sooner we tell the EU to go f
k themselves and tell Europe we are open for business the better ...b2hbm said:
...
I reckon the Belgium resistance is going to come under very heavy pressure over the next week and they'll either crumble or be bribed out of the way.
I think you're right....I reckon the Belgium resistance is going to come under very heavy pressure over the next week and they'll either crumble or be bribed out of the way.
stongle said:
...
Canada, Norway lite etc is a fantasy - we should stop the pretence.
...
I 100% agree. Just like the nonsense "hard" or "soft" Brexits.Canada, Norway lite etc is a fantasy - we should stop the pretence.
...
We voted to leave, there's no hard nor soft. There's just leave under whatever terms can be negotiated.
Equally, any deal we end up with, no matter what people stand up as a start position, template or whatever else, will be a UK<->EU deal. Our relative positions are very, very different to Canada and Norway., which makes it highly unlikely that their deals will totally suit either the UK or the EU.
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