Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result (Vol 2)

[Mrr T]

loafer123 said:

Mrr T said:

barryrs said:

Mrr T said:

I have done. I have also posted a number of times on this thread why the £35k a year figure is rubbish.

Apologies for asking you to repeat yourself but I must have missed this.

What benefits and services aren't working immigrants claiming that make them a net contributor at a lower figure?

For example I hear that immigrants are young and don't have as many kids so are less of a drain on education yet my local junior school teaches polish.

The £35k figure is calculated by allocating all costs. So an immigrant is not likely to be drawing a UK pension, they are less likely to be drawing non work benefits, and likely in work benefits as well, most importantly they will be making less than average use of the NHS because of their age. Something like 70% of the NHS budget is to provide care for the over 70's.

Immigrants are younger than the general population when they migrant. However, like us all they get older. Most of the first Polish immigrants will now have been in the UK 7-9 years. Now after working for that time they are having children. Indeed, current birth figures show 2nd highest country of birth for new mother's is Poland.

For employed households (i.e. excluding retired people) the threshold for being a net contributor was £32k in 2012.

See here. https://fullfact.org/economy/are-half-british-hous...

Thanks for the link. Can I suggest you read the link carefully. The figure is clearly not the "net benefit" cut off for immigrants.

[Mrr T]

Jockman said:

Your posts are getting stranger. Are you suggesting that we remove fixed costs and undertake an analysis of immigration on a marginal costing basis only?

A simple google explains that some of that money is repatriated. Hardly a crime and certainly very honourable to support families. But it does exist.

Why is it strange to analyse immigrantion on a marginal cost basis. I would suggest it more appropriate than full absorption.

As for sending money home I never said it did not happen. I disagreed with the poster who suggested they sent most home.

[///ajd]

Media reports chaos and terror as refugees invade North Devon en masse and incur wrath of angry locals.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syrian-refugee...

[Deptford Draylons]

///ajd said:

Media reports chaos and terror as refugees invade North Devon en masse and incur wrath of angry locals.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syrian-refugee...

You've gone quiet on posting any details on the Nissan deal.

[AC43]

s2art said:

AC43 said:

Well I live in the area (London) that's surely most "hit" by immigration and I don't come across anyone moaning about it. Most immigrants come here to build a better life and work their nuts off, often grateful to have jobs that the locals can't/won't do. They build the economy they're not a drag on it.

But is London a special case in that there will be a higher proportion of skilled and 'elite' immigrants going there compared to other areas of the country?

I don't really think so. People come here to do jobs at all levels from street sweepers to surgeons. I just don't understand the negative sentiment. Although I suspect a lot of it is to do with people living in areas where the traditional industries no longer exist and wanting to blame someone - in this case the "urban elite", "liberals" and immigrants.

I think the theory goes is that if only those people didn't exist then the factories would magically reappear and it would be back to the good old days.

[alfie2244]

///ajd said:

Media reports chaos and terror as refugees invade North Devon en masse and incur wrath of angry locals.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syrian-refugee...

Another desperate "comedian" comes out of the woodwork to entertain backslash and friends

[don4l]

Jockman said:

IIRC from the Ashcroft poll analysis you are classed as 'old' at circa 45.

What an utter bar steward!

Clearly, I am lucky to be still alive.

[loafer123]

Mrr T said:

loafer123 said:

Mrr T said:

barryrs said:

Mrr T said:

I have done. I have also posted a number of times on this thread why the £35k a year figure is rubbish.

Apologies for asking you to repeat yourself but I must have missed this.

What benefits and services aren't working immigrants claiming that make them a net contributor at a lower figure?

For example I hear that immigrants are young and don't have as many kids so are less of a drain on education yet my local junior school teaches polish.

The £35k figure is calculated by allocating all costs. So an immigrant is not likely to be drawing a UK pension, they are less likely to be drawing non work benefits, and likely in work benefits as well, most importantly they will be making less than average use of the NHS because of their age. Something like 70% of the NHS budget is to provide care for the over 70's.

Immigrants are younger than the general population when they migrant. However, like us all they get older. Most of the first Polish immigrants will now have been in the UK 7-9 years. Now after working for that time they are having children. Indeed, current birth figures show 2nd highest country of birth for new mother's is Poland.

For employed households (i.e. excluding retired people) the threshold for being a net contributor was £32k in 2012.

See here. https://fullfact.org/economy/are-half-british-hous...

Thanks for the link. Can I suggest you read the link carefully. The figure is clearly not the "net benefit" cut off for immigrants.

It is the level of household income below which the fund tax paid is not enough to cover the benefits and services provided by the government.

I am sure you will contend that immigrants are younger, healthier and use services less. The stress on Primary Schools and hospitals would tend to indicate that immigrants are just like the rest of us.

[230TE]

Mrr T said:

they are less likely to be drawing non work benefits, and likely in work benefits as well

Actually, EU immigrants are more likely to be claiming in-work benefits than the population as a whole. So you didn't look at the other link I posted either (the Oxford University one). Tsk, tsk. I thought Remainers were supposed to be super-enthusiastic about evidence-based arguments.

[PRTVR]

AC43 said:

s2art said:

AC43 said:

Well I live in the area (London) that's surely most "hit" by immigration and I don't come across anyone moaning about it. Most immigrants come here to build a better life and work their nuts off, often grateful to have jobs that the locals can't/won't do. They build the economy they're not a drag on it.

But is London a special case in that there will be a higher proportion of skilled and 'elite' immigrants going there compared to other areas of the country?

I don't really think so. People come here to do jobs at all levels from street sweepers to surgeons. I just don't understand the negative sentiment. Although I suspect a lot of it is to do with people living in areas where the traditional industries no longer exist and wanting to blame someone - in this case the "urban elite", "liberals" and immigrants.

I think the theory goes is that if only those people didn't exist then the factories would magically reappear and it would be back to the good old days.

You just have to look at how unbalanced the economy is to see the problem, manufacturing has been allowed to nearly disappear, who was responsible for that ?

Take shipbuilding, ships are built in Norway,sweden Germany France Holland and Italy, but the UK next to nothing, in this country manual skills are looked down on,
What we have done is removed jobs from the economy that provided not only work but pride,I find it interesting that when the unemployed are talked about, nobody connect's the lack of manual jobs that provide work and pride.
The point about London liberals is correct I am from the northeast, Mandelson was MP for Hartlepool, there was major Job losses at the local steel rolling mill, his comments were we don't need those dirty jobs, roll on quite a few years and the Redcar steel plant closed down, a plant that had been there since the start of large scale steel production in the world, lord Heseltine made the same statement, dirt jobs, it's not about going back it's about understanding, I think Teresa May understands, time will tell.

[230TE]

PRTVR said:

You just have to look at how unbalanced the economy is to see the problem, manufacturing has been allowed to nearly disappear, who was responsible for that ?

Take shipbuilding, ships are built in Norway,sweden Germany France Holland and Italy, but the UK next to nothing, in this country manual skills are looked down on,
What we have done is removed jobs from the economy that provided not only work but pride,I find it interesting that when the unemployed are talked about, nobody connect's the lack of manual jobs that provide work and pride.
The point about London liberals is correct I am from the northeast, Mandelson was MP for Hartlepool, there was major Job losses at the local steel rolling mill, his comments were we don't need those dirty jobs, roll on quite a few years and the Redcar steel plant closed down, a plant that had been there since the start of large scale steel production in the world, lord Heseltine made the same statement, dirt jobs, it's not about going back it's about understanding, I think Teresa May understands, time will tell.

Good point, and I'd expand it to include a great big swathe of what used to be called "light industry" - factory assembly line jobs, not especially skilled, but in clean, dry working conditions and paying enough above min wage for the people in those jobs to think they weren't at the bottom of the heap. Once upon a time, you'd stick at a job like that, do a bit of overtime, get promoted to supervisor and be able to afford a mortgage on a modest little house. Globalisation has absolutely torn the arse out of those jobs - places like the old Hornby model train factory, which employed about 500 people in Margate. Some of them had been there 30 years or more, and Margate isn't exactly an employment hotspot. Decent jobs for decent people with a bit of pride in themselves, now all gone to China.

And the "answer"? Rather than incentivising firms to keep production here we have "Social Europe" a.k.a. making it even more expensive to employ people in the EU rather than offshoring all your production to China or Turkey or Mexico. We may lag behind in some areas, but we are world-class at finding new ways to pay ourselves for not working. Politicians are convinced that's what will bring in the votes - shorter hours, longer holidays, maternity leave, paternity leave, felinity leave when your cat has kittens, etc etc. Actually, what most people really, really want is a proper job that they can be proud of, and working in an Amazon distribution centre isn't it.

[dandarez]

Mrr T said:

Jockman said:

Mrr T said:

Immigrants are younger than the general population when they migrant. However, like us all they get older. Most of the first Polish immigrants will now have been in the UK 7-9 years. Now after working for that time they are having children. Indeed, current birth figures show 2nd highest country of birth for new mother's is Poland.

I've been supplying the Polish Community for 37 years. They have been settled here for almost 70 years. Wonderful people.

Very true.

When they joined the EU and the UK decided not to apply work restrictions I could not decide if I agreed or not. We really did let them down after WW2.

No option I know but difficult to go to war in defence of an ally and win the war but the ally remains captive.

WTF are you talking about? 'Most of the first Polish immigrants will now have been in the UK 7-9 years'...uhh?

There has always been large numbers of Polish in the UK since the war. We had two Polish families living near us in the 1960s. One was like an uncle and we used to call him 'Jonny the Pole'. Like many, they came for work. At that time there were something approaching 200,000 people in the UK who had Poland listed as their place of birth. Before the war it was hardly a fifth of that figure.
7-9 years, oh dear!

Even today it's hardly 5 times that 60s figure.

[B'stard Child]

230TE said:

Good point, and I'd expand it to include a great big swathe of what used to be called "light industry" - factory assembly line jobs, not especially skilled, but in clean, dry working conditions and paying enough above min wage for the people in those jobs to think they weren't at the bottom of the heap. Once upon a time, you'd stick at a job like that, do a bit of overtime, get promoted to supervisor and be able to afford a mortgage on a modest little house. Globalisation has absolutely torn the arse out of those jobs - places like the old Hornby model train factory, which employed about 500 people in Margate. Some of them had been there 30 years or more, and Margate isn't exactly an employment hotspot. Decent jobs for decent people with a bit of pride in themselves, now all gone to China.

And the "answer"? Rather than incentivising firms to keep production here we have "Social Europe" a.k.a. making it even more expensive to employ people in the EU rather than offshoring all your production to China or Turkey or Mexico. We may lag behind in some areas, but we are world-class at finding new ways to pay ourselves for not working. Politicians are convinced that's what will bring in the votes - shorter hours, longer holidays, maternity leave, paternity leave, felinity leave when your cat has kittens, etc etc. Actually, what most people really, really want is a proper job that they can be proud of, and working in an Amazon distribution centre isn't it.

Nice to know I'm not alone

I've pretty much worked in manufacturing all my life - It is not a dirty word - I work with people every day that make life saving products and I don't know any of them that aren't proud of what they do.

I called into a company TTV outside Ipswich (who made a custom flywheel 3 years ago for me) on Friday - I'd like a custom front pulley for the SLK (bigger pulley to drive the charger) - the owner gave me a tour of the new place and showed me the investment in machinery and his people. It's a real eye opener when you recognise the engineering expertise in the country - manufacturing isn't dead it's just needs to work to fill needs

Oh and I can get the flywheel from America but I won't because I know I can get a better quality product in the UK

[anonymous-user]

B'stard Child said:

230TE said:

Good point, and I'd expand it to include a great big swathe of what used to be called "light industry" - factory assembly line jobs, not especially skilled, but in clean, dry working conditions and paying enough above min wage for the people in those jobs to think they weren't at the bottom of the heap. Once upon a time, you'd stick at a job like that, do a bit of overtime, get promoted to supervisor and be able to afford a mortgage on a modest little house. Globalisation has absolutely torn the arse out of those jobs - places like the old Hornby model train factory, which employed about 500 people in Margate. Some of them had been there 30 years or more, and Margate isn't exactly an employment hotspot. Decent jobs for decent people with a bit of pride in themselves, now all gone to China.

And the "answer"? Rather than incentivising firms to keep production here we have "Social Europe" a.k.a. making it even more expensive to employ people in the EU rather than offshoring all your production to China or Turkey or Mexico. We may lag behind in some areas, but we are world-class at finding new ways to pay ourselves for not working. Politicians are convinced that's what will bring in the votes - shorter hours, longer holidays, maternity leave, paternity leave, felinity leave when your cat has kittens, etc etc. Actually, what most people really, really want is a proper job that they can be proud of, and working in an Amazon distribution centre isn't it.

Nice to know I'm not alone

I've pretty much worked in manufacturing all my life - It is not a dirty word - I work with people every day that make life saving products and I don't know any of them that aren't proud of what they do.

I called into a company TTV outside Ipswich (who made a custom flywheel 3 years ago for me) on Friday - I'd like a custom front pulley for the SLK (bigger pulley to drive the charger) - the owner gave me a tour of the new place and showed me the investment in machinery and his people. It's a real eye opener when you recognise the engineering expertise in the country - manufacturing isn't dead it's just needs to work to fill needs

Oh and I can get the flywheel from America but I won't because I know I can get a better quality product in the UK

I'm not convinced. It sounds like the paradigm of pushing toothpaste back into the tube.

I'm confident we have world class engineering expertise in this country. That's not the same as manufacturing though. I struggle to see how we can compete with shipbuilding yards in SE Asia, simply because they can pay less due to lower living costs and have hoards of workers willing and able to do what's needed.

We now have a mostly service based economy in this country for a reason: we don't have a workforce any more that is willing to do blue collar work for blue collar pay. Put simply, vast swathes of people don't want a blue collar lifestyle any more.

I just don't see the small niche engineering firm that we excel at producing as in the same category as large shipyards. And I don't detect a mass desire to man factories at pay levels that will make us competitive with SE Asia.

[Fastdruid]

Greg66 said:

B'stard Child said:

230TE said:

Good point, and I'd expand it to include a great big swathe of what used to be called "light industry" - factory assembly line jobs, not especially skilled, but in clean, dry working conditions and paying enough above min wage for the people in those jobs to think they weren't at the bottom of the heap. Once upon a time, you'd stick at a job like that, do a bit of overtime, get promoted to supervisor and be able to afford a mortgage on a modest little house. Globalisation has absolutely torn the arse out of those jobs - places like the old Hornby model train factory, which employed about 500 people in Margate. Some of them had been there 30 years or more, and Margate isn't exactly an employment hotspot. Decent jobs for decent people with a bit of pride in themselves, now all gone to China.

And the "answer"? Rather than incentivising firms to keep production here we have "Social Europe" a.k.a. making it even more expensive to employ people in the EU rather than offshoring all your production to China or Turkey or Mexico. We may lag behind in some areas, but we are world-class at finding new ways to pay ourselves for not working. Politicians are convinced that's what will bring in the votes - shorter hours, longer holidays, maternity leave, paternity leave, felinity leave when your cat has kittens, etc etc. Actually, what most people really, really want is a proper job that they can be proud of, and working in an Amazon distribution centre isn't it.

Nice to know I'm not alone

I've pretty much worked in manufacturing all my life - It is not a dirty word - I work with people every day that make life saving products and I don't know any of them that aren't proud of what they do.

I called into a company TTV outside Ipswich (who made a custom flywheel 3 years ago for me) on Friday - I'd like a custom front pulley for the SLK (bigger pulley to drive the charger) - the owner gave me a tour of the new place and showed me the investment in machinery and his people. It's a real eye opener when you recognise the engineering expertise in the country - manufacturing isn't dead it's just needs to work to fill needs

Oh and I can get the flywheel from America but I won't because I know I can get a better quality product in the UK

I'm not convinced. It sounds like the paradigm of pushing toothpaste back into the tube.

I'm confident we have world class engineering expertise in this country. That's not the same as manufacturing though. I struggle to see how we can compete with shipbuilding yards in SE Asia, simply because they can pay less due to lower living costs and have hoards of workers willing and able to do what's needed.

We now have a mostly service based economy in this country for a reason: we don't have a workforce any more that is willing to do blue collar work for blue collar pay. Put simply, vast swathes of people don't want a blue collar lifestyle any more.

I just don't see the small niche engineering firm that we excel at producing as in the same category as large shipyards. And I don't detect a mass desire to man factories at pay levels that will make us competitive with SE Asia.

Part of the issue with the lack of manufacturing is that the EU has paid companies to remove it from the UK. So many factories have been given bribes of cheap loans to relocate to other EU countries (and even non-EU countries like Hungary) where labour is cheaper.

Then we have the customs union that works so slowly it fails to protect us against things like China "dumping" steel along with massive EU mandated charges for high energy usage and we have steel, aluminium and other types of production all becoming un-economic (not helped there by a strong £).

Once it's gone though that high head-count manufacturing isn't coming back. Like the results of the referendum, you can't put the genie back in the bottle. We're going to have to find some way to make things work and included in that is soon to have to be some serious consideration as to what is going to happen come the automation revolution.

[Mrr T]

loafer123 said:

It is the level of household income below which the fund tax paid is not enough to cover the benefits and services provided by the government.

I am sure you will contend that immigrants are younger, healthier and use services less. The stress on Primary Schools and hospitals would tend to indicate that immigrants are just like the rest of us.

Well that's what the figures say! The level of income to cover benefits and services reflects the low level of income of pensioner compared to costs.

Since the costs of health care for the elderly is much higher than for the young it very clear.

[Mrr T]

230TE said:

Mrr T said:

they are less likely to be drawing non work benefits, and likely in work benefits as well

Actually, EU immigrants are more likely to be claiming in-work benefits than the population as a whole. So you didn't look at the other link I posted either (the Oxford University one). Tsk, tsk. I thought Remainers were supposed to be super-enthusiastic about evidence-based arguments.

You need to read the statistics. It includes any partnership where one party is a EU immigrants. So a Polish lady moves to the UK and marries a UK man and they have a child and she claims child benefit she is included. I am enthusiastic about evidence based statistics but you have to read and understand.

[s2art]

Greg66 said:

I just don't see the small niche engineering firm that we excel at producing as in the same category as large shipyards. And I don't detect a mass desire to man factories at pay levels that will make us competitive with SE Asia.

Wait for the next generation of robots and 3D printers.

[PRTVR]

s2art said:

Greg66 said:

I just don't see the small niche engineering firm that we excel at producing as in the same category as large shipyards. And I don't detect a mass desire to man factories at pay levels that will make us competitive with SE Asia.

Wait for the next generation of robots and 3D printers.

But I pointed out ships are made in a lot of EU countries, do you think Germany is a low cost area ? Just the other night there was a programme on ITV on building a large cruise ship in Italy You build things smarter, strategically I find it strange as an island we only have limited ship building capability, when we have to go to Korea to build our RN support ships something's wrong.

[230TE]

Mrr T said:

You need to read the statistics. It includes any partnership where one party is a EU immigrants. So a Polish lady moves to the UK and marries a UK man and they have a child and she claims child benefit she is included. I am enthusiastic about evidence based statistics but you have to read and understand.

So what you are saying (picking up two different strands of your argument) is that the Eastern Bloc immigrants aren't sending any of their earnings back home, because they have married British people. That's an internally consistent argument, but I'm having some trouble finding figures for it.