Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result (Vol 2)
Discussion
PS Mario - average time to strike deals is around 18mths for the US in bilateral arrangements. The EU is not a good benchmark as its deals are not bilateral, no matter what Juncker or Merkel may want us to think. They include awkward sods like the French, and also poorer nations who counterparts will be cautious of (Romania, Hungary) who will expect all the milk and honey too.
Equally that clock won't start ticking in March 2018. It will be happening now. We just can't sign anything until then.
Disastrous - other EU states have a very different set of circumstances to us vv their position with the EU and RoW. A decision for them to leave would be very different to ours.
Only 3,for example, are in the game to the tune of 1bn euros or more a year (Netherlands, France and Italy).
- Netherlands. 17th biggest economy and just 30% of ours (how are they such a big net contributor...). Net importer but exports very heavily geared to other EU states. Imports less so. If they were of a mind I can see some mileage in them leaving, but they don't have an especially strong position.
- France. Trade places with us economically. Net importer but have reasonable spread. I think they have a strong case for breaking rank and if Le Pen gets in I would bet on the EU being screwed. But, the French were the architects of the direction of travel of the EU and common sense isn't translatable is French with every daft move being a shrug away. They would also be keen to trip us up no matter what the impact to themselves - healthy rivalry.
- Italy. 8th biggest economy but only 70% the size of ours. Net exporter. It's exports are heavily geared to Germany and France along with other EU States, who it is also in hock to. If we think the EU could bloody our nose in an act of spite, it could destroy Italy (though there maybe something in the "better to owe £5bn than £5 theory!).
Equally that clock won't start ticking in March 2018. It will be happening now. We just can't sign anything until then.
Disastrous - other EU states have a very different set of circumstances to us vv their position with the EU and RoW. A decision for them to leave would be very different to ours.
Only 3,for example, are in the game to the tune of 1bn euros or more a year (Netherlands, France and Italy).
- Netherlands. 17th biggest economy and just 30% of ours (how are they such a big net contributor...). Net importer but exports very heavily geared to other EU states. Imports less so. If they were of a mind I can see some mileage in them leaving, but they don't have an especially strong position.
- France. Trade places with us economically. Net importer but have reasonable spread. I think they have a strong case for breaking rank and if Le Pen gets in I would bet on the EU being screwed. But, the French were the architects of the direction of travel of the EU and common sense isn't translatable is French with every daft move being a shrug away. They would also be keen to trip us up no matter what the impact to themselves - healthy rivalry.
- Italy. 8th biggest economy but only 70% the size of ours. Net exporter. It's exports are heavily geared to Germany and France along with other EU States, who it is also in hock to. If we think the EU could bloody our nose in an act of spite, it could destroy Italy (though there maybe something in the "better to owe £5bn than £5 theory!).
The view I have long taken on Brexit is its simply not in Europe best interests to try punish us. We very much hold all the power cards. They have budget commitments for example which we were committed to helping to fund as members of the EU. Our share is the billions in the coming years.
The only stable economic country within Europe is Germany and even it is starting to struggle by way of market slow down.
All we need to do is tell the EU we will refuse to keep to the financial commitments they have made till X and that the remaining 27 will have to share out what we were meant to cover.
The remaining 27 cannot afford that.
We are one of the largest buyers of EU made cars. We could simply impose tariffs on cars from the weaker states like France which will mean a reduction in sales damaging their state sponsored car companies and creating risk of layoffs, in turn creating strikes and damaging their economy further threatening the euro and EU project etc.
Simple reality is it is not in the EU's interest to try punish us any more than it is in our interests to be spiteful on leaving. They have a lot more to lose as do we all should it all get nasty and fit for tat.
The only stable economic country within Europe is Germany and even it is starting to struggle by way of market slow down.
All we need to do is tell the EU we will refuse to keep to the financial commitments they have made till X and that the remaining 27 will have to share out what we were meant to cover.
The remaining 27 cannot afford that.
We are one of the largest buyers of EU made cars. We could simply impose tariffs on cars from the weaker states like France which will mean a reduction in sales damaging their state sponsored car companies and creating risk of layoffs, in turn creating strikes and damaging their economy further threatening the euro and EU project etc.
Simple reality is it is not in the EU's interest to try punish us any more than it is in our interests to be spiteful on leaving. They have a lot more to lose as do we all should it all get nasty and fit for tat.
Sway said:
Mario149 said:
The problem with that as far as I can tell anyone who has been involved in negotiating trade deals says those deals are 5, 10 or even more years away. And even then they won't be as comprehensive as what we have with the EU. The crux of it is, can we negotiate good deals with other countries? I personally suspect we can. Can we do enough of them of sufficient quality in the amount of time we need to? Not a chance.
Agreed, however at the moment much of our trade with the wider world (and I'm talking imports here as virtually all our non-EU exports are under WTO tariffs) will be cheaper under WTO compared to the EU import tariff regime. We also currently receive very little of any import duties levied at our ports, this will default to 100%.Further, moving to a tariffed trade approach with the EU is actually pretty low risk. Yes, they'll charge us for our exports. Fine, we'll match the tariff. Ah, but then our volume of exports will decrease is often the cry. I can see that, but in this scenario we have an option - balance is net negative, so we'd be levying a greater sum than rEU will. So our government can use some of those funds to give a rebate to our exporters to the EU.
Maintaining our firm's competitiveness on the continent, making EU imports less attractive to our own produce, and reducing the costs of non-EU imports. Sounds decent to me, even if I would prefer a broadly zero tariff trading regime.
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2016/12/15/if-liam...
....which takes it's references from here amongst other places: https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/
What becomes clear the more you read is that the myth that we can just default onto WTO rules/tariffs isn't the case. Lots of stuff has to happen even to make that work.
To clarify, I don't think even the hardcore Hard Brexiters (or TM) are dumb enough to walk us off a cliff so I don't think we're going to end up with queues of lorries with rotting goods at ports etc. Some way will be found, but it will be worse than what we have and any improvement (if it ever comes assuming we don't get rogered in deals with US/China etc) on our current situation is a decade or more away. All this on the backdrop of the last 10 years whereby half a generation of young people has been screwed in terms of the economy and the reality that we can barely predict what an economy will do 2 or 3 years down the line, let alone 10+.
For me it's always been manifestly clear that if Brexit did go ahead, the boat needed to be rocked/risked at little as possible to protect our post 2008 economic recovery. A transition from EU member, to member of the EEA, to customs union, to going it on our own in say 5-10 years time was always going to be the best way to go.
frankenstein12 said:
The view I have long taken on Brexit is its simply not in Europe best interests to try punish us. We very much hold all the power cards. They have budget commitments for example which we were committed to helping to fund as members of the EU. Our share is the billions in the coming years.
The only stable economic country within Europe is Germany and even it is starting to struggle by way of market slow down.
All we need to do is tell the EU we will refuse to keep to the financial commitments they have made till X and that the remaining 27 will have to share out what we were meant to cover.
The remaining 27 cannot afford that.
We are one of the largest buyers of EU made cars. We could simply impose tariffs on cars from the weaker states like France which will mean a reduction in sales damaging their state sponsored car companies and creating risk of layoffs, in turn creating strikes and damaging their economy further threatening the euro and EU project etc.
Simple reality is it is not in the EU's interest to try punish us any more than it is in our interests to be spiteful on leaving. They have a lot more to lose as do we all should it all get nasty and fit for tat.
Cannot agree with you.The only stable economic country within Europe is Germany and even it is starting to struggle by way of market slow down.
All we need to do is tell the EU we will refuse to keep to the financial commitments they have made till X and that the remaining 27 will have to share out what we were meant to cover.
The remaining 27 cannot afford that.
We are one of the largest buyers of EU made cars. We could simply impose tariffs on cars from the weaker states like France which will mean a reduction in sales damaging their state sponsored car companies and creating risk of layoffs, in turn creating strikes and damaging their economy further threatening the euro and EU project etc.
Simple reality is it is not in the EU's interest to try punish us any more than it is in our interests to be spiteful on leaving. They have a lot more to lose as do we all should it all get nasty and fit for tat.
We are the 2nd largest contributor to the EU budget. (As an aside there are a lot of future EU expenses we have committed to fund and we will still have to pay for when we leave.) However, if we leave how much are we prepared to continue to pay in. Only if we are prepared to continue to contribute substantial amounts is this a bargaining chip.
We regard to car imports this is important to German but not the other EU members.
frankenstein12 said:
The view I have long taken on Brexit is its simply not in Europe best interests to try punish us. We very much hold all the power cards. They have budget commitments for example which we were committed to helping to fund as members of the EU. Our share is the billions in the coming years.
The only stable economic country within Europe is Germany and even it is starting to struggle by way of market slow down.
All we need to do is tell the EU we will refuse to keep to the financial commitments they have made till X and that the remaining 27 will have to share out what we were meant to cover.
The remaining 27 cannot afford that.
t.
You have a really strange view on this sort of thing.The only stable economic country within Europe is Germany and even it is starting to struggle by way of market slow down.
All we need to do is tell the EU we will refuse to keep to the financial commitments they have made till X and that the remaining 27 will have to share out what we were meant to cover.
The remaining 27 cannot afford that.
t.
Your perception that it is ever conceivable that we would default on our commitments is so far off the mark that you don't really seem to understand how stuff works. We aren't some tin pot African nation who arbitrarily reneges on our deals when a new dictator overthrows the current government.
Do you honestly think we would have any chance whatsoever of negotiating other deals across the globe if we didn't honour our agreements? It is just unthinkable and not even a remote possibility. Even threatening it is not remotely feasible.
Also the bit about the German economy was similarly incorrect http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-economy-g...
And despite all of that, you are far over estimating our importance to Europe and how much our net contribution matters. Our net contribution is less than 6% of the EU budget. All this "They need us far more than we need them" nonsense is just that. Particularly when they need to do everything possible to discourage any other country from following us out of the EU. It is completely in their interest to f
k us over and set an example to all the rest of the EU countries who are feeling a little restless.
Disastrous said:
Interesting points raised.
Firstly, thanks all for the food for thought and not just screaming that I'm a lefty traitor. It was a genuine question so the civil answers are appreciated.
I'm mulling over the point about a flourishing UK despite EU punishment. It's a good point and my immediate reaction is that if the UK flies despite heavy EU measures, then the jig is absolutely up for the EU, and Brexit will be proven to have been the correct choice. I'd predict dominoes at that point.
Given that, I can't really see any upside for the EU in Britain doing well beyond a bit of trade. Surely the logical play by them at this point is then to make Brexit as tortuous as possible and hope we don't make it via trade with other nations?
If we were to analogise it with a card game, they're pretty committed at this point so now have stay in regardless and bully us out of the pot. Just how it looks to me - I can't see what's in for them to go easy on us.
i understand that point of view, but as highlighted by fastdruid the eu is a political entity whereas the people in the various european countries we trade with are the ones that will have to deal with any problems . purely from the trade perspective i cannot see how there will be any major disruption on either side as business leaders will simply not allow it.Firstly, thanks all for the food for thought and not just screaming that I'm a lefty traitor. It was a genuine question so the civil answers are appreciated.
I'm mulling over the point about a flourishing UK despite EU punishment. It's a good point and my immediate reaction is that if the UK flies despite heavy EU measures, then the jig is absolutely up for the EU, and Brexit will be proven to have been the correct choice. I'd predict dominoes at that point.
Given that, I can't really see any upside for the EU in Britain doing well beyond a bit of trade. Surely the logical play by them at this point is then to make Brexit as tortuous as possible and hope we don't make it via trade with other nations?
If we were to analogise it with a card game, they're pretty committed at this point so now have stay in regardless and bully us out of the pot. Just how it looks to me - I can't see what's in for them to go easy on us.
those running the eu , just like any other group of politicians need to remember why they are where they are and what they are supposed to be doing. this may well be the watershed moment when juncker and crew start acting in the best interests of the people of europe instead of following political dogma.
blindswelledrat said:
barryrs said:
Snip
I am not really sure how to answer that other than by saying "the other 27 EU countries"blindswelledrat said:
Our net contribution is less than 6% of the EU budget.
Quick question but where does the other 94% come from?wc98 said:
Disastrous said:
Interesting points raised.
Firstly, thanks all for the food for thought and not just screaming that I'm a lefty traitor. It was a genuine question so the civil answers are appreciated.
I'm mulling over the point about a flourishing UK despite EU punishment. It's a good point and my immediate reaction is that if the UK flies despite heavy EU measures, then the jig is absolutely up for the EU, and Brexit will be proven to have been the correct choice. I'd predict dominoes at that point.
Given that, I can't really see any upside for the EU in Britain doing well beyond a bit of trade. Surely the logical play by them at this point is then to make Brexit as tortuous as possible and hope we don't make it via trade with other nations?
If we were to analogise it with a card game, they're pretty committed at this point so now have stay in regardless and bully us out of the pot. Just how it looks to me - I can't see what's in for them to go easy on us.
i understand that point of view, but as highlighted by fastdruid the eu is a political entity whereas the people in the various european countries we trade with are the ones that will have to deal with any problems . purely from the trade perspective i cannot see how there will be any major disruption on either side as business leaders will simply not allow it.Firstly, thanks all for the food for thought and not just screaming that I'm a lefty traitor. It was a genuine question so the civil answers are appreciated.
I'm mulling over the point about a flourishing UK despite EU punishment. It's a good point and my immediate reaction is that if the UK flies despite heavy EU measures, then the jig is absolutely up for the EU, and Brexit will be proven to have been the correct choice. I'd predict dominoes at that point.
Given that, I can't really see any upside for the EU in Britain doing well beyond a bit of trade. Surely the logical play by them at this point is then to make Brexit as tortuous as possible and hope we don't make it via trade with other nations?
If we were to analogise it with a card game, they're pretty committed at this point so now have stay in regardless and bully us out of the pot. Just how it looks to me - I can't see what's in for them to go easy on us.
those running the eu , just like any other group of politicians need to remember why they are where they are and what they are supposed to be doing. this may well be the watershed moment when juncker and crew start acting in the best interests of the people of europe instead of following political dogma.
Disastrous said:
I suppose that becomes a matter of opinion. I read that Merkel has already effectively warned German businesses what side their bread is buttered on. I think we, as in Brits, are guilty of forgetting the politics and business are much more intertwined in Europe so I'm just not so confident business leaders won't acquiesce to the will of their own policy makers etc.
certainly regarding germany i agree. they have the most to lose should the eu come apart. Disastrous said:
I suppose that becomes a matter of opinion. I read that Merkel has already effectively warned German businesses what side their bread is buttered on. I think we, as in Brits, are guilty of forgetting the politics and business are much more intertwined in Europe so I'm just not so confident business leaders won't acquiesce to the will of their own policy makers etc.
I don't see why Merkel's opinion is relevant. She will be out on her backside in a few weeks.We went from "the back of the queue" to the front when Trump won the US Election.
Hollande will also be handed his marching orders soon.
In a couple of months, the political landscape in Europe will have changed beyond recognition.
blindswelledrat said:
frankenstein12 said:
The view I have long taken on Brexit is its simply not in Europe best interests to try punish us. We very much hold all the power cards. They have budget commitments for example which we were committed to helping to fund as members of the EU. Our share is the billions in the coming years.
The only stable economic country within Europe is Germany and even it is starting to struggle by way of market slow down.
All we need to do is tell the EU we will refuse to keep to the financial commitments they have made till X and that the remaining 27 will have to share out what we were meant to cover.
The remaining 27 cannot afford that.
t.
You have a really strange view on this sort of thing.The only stable economic country within Europe is Germany and even it is starting to struggle by way of market slow down.
All we need to do is tell the EU we will refuse to keep to the financial commitments they have made till X and that the remaining 27 will have to share out what we were meant to cover.
The remaining 27 cannot afford that.
t.
Your perception that it is ever conceivable that we would default on our commitments is so far off the mark that you don't really seem to understand how stuff works. We aren't some tin pot African nation who arbitrarily reneges on our deals when a new dictator overthrows the current government.
Do you honestly think we would have any chance whatsoever of negotiating other deals across the globe if we didn't honour our agreements? It is just unthinkable and not even a remote possibility. Even threatening it is not remotely feasible.
Also the bit about the German economy was similarly incorrect http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-economy-g...
And despite all of that, you are far over estimating our importance to Europe and how much our net contribution matters. Our net contribution is less than 6% of the EU budget. All this "They need us far more than we need them" nonsense is just that. Particularly when they need to do everything possible to discourage any other country from following us out of the EU. It is completely in their interest to f
k us over and set an example to all the rest of the EU countries who are feeling a little restless.With many of the other EU states having mass unemployment and basket case economies, and being net recipients of EU funding rather than contributing to EU coffers, it will be interesting to see how long it lasts, with just the pittance from Germany being put into EU coffers every year.
In French we say that they want “the butter, the money from the butter, and the dairymaid’s smile”.
In more vulgar usage we say they want something rather more from the dairymaid than a smile.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan...
Catnip?
In more vulgar usage we say they want something rather more from the dairymaid than a smile.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan...
Catnip?
Literally-no-one-ever said:
Good to see the return of quality input from 535i
///ajd said:
In French we say that they want “the butter, the money from the butter, and the dairymaid’s smile”.
In more vulgar usage we say they want something rather more from the dairymaid than a smile.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan...
Catnip?
I've missed your input In more vulgar usage we say they want something rather more from the dairymaid than a smile.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan...
Catnip?
Literally-no-one-ever said:
Good to see the return of quality input from 535i
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