Could UK U-turn on Referendum Result (Vol 2)
Discussion
alfie2244 said:
turbobloke said:
alfie2244 said:
"Labour will refuse to vote in the House of Commons for any Brexit deal struck between Theresa May and the 27 remaining EU states unless the deal ensures precisely the same economic and trade benefits as Britain currently gains from full membership."
Well precisely the same deal is 100% certain not to happen...so Labour won't vote for it....then what?
It'll go through anyway?Well precisely the same deal is 100% certain not to happen...so Labour won't vote for it....then what?
See House of Lords A50 ping pong.
turbobloke said:
alfie2244 said:
turbobloke said:
alfie2244 said:
"Labour will refuse to vote in the House of Commons for any Brexit deal struck between Theresa May and the 27 remaining EU states unless the deal ensures precisely the same economic and trade benefits as Britain currently gains from full membership."
Well precisely the same deal is 100% certain not to happen...so Labour won't vote for it....then what?
It'll go through anyway?Well precisely the same deal is 100% certain not to happen...so Labour won't vote for it....then what?
See House of Lords A50 debate.
alfie2244 said:
turbobloke said:
alfie2244 said:
turbobloke said:
alfie2244 said:
"Labour will refuse to vote in the House of Commons for any Brexit deal struck between Theresa May and the 27 remaining EU states unless the deal ensures precisely the same economic and trade benefits as Britain currently gains from full membership."
Well precisely the same deal is 100% certain not to happen...so Labour won't vote for it....then what?
It'll go through anyway?Well precisely the same deal is 100% certain not to happen...so Labour won't vote for it....then what?
See House of Lords A50 debate.
Labour in the HoC won't be in a position to do anything and with no (sufficient) Tory rebellion in the offing, they're stuffed. There was meant to be one i.e. a Tory rebellion over A50, and it never got anywhere. The HoL may well strut their stuff again but as per the Noble Lord Mandelson (pause to uncross fingers) the HoL does ultimately appear to know its place as he/they eventually concede that the view of the elected chamber should prevail. As to what will actually happen, that far ahead in UK politics, nobody of any grade knows for sure but it's an odds-on A50 replay at this stage.
alfie2244 said:
I know I am a bit low grade so forgive me... assuming this vote is about 6 mths before final exit, what would happen if it is voted against......I am struggling to see past this....or are we back to the title of this thread?
Then we are out anyway with WTO terms. Any deal better than WTO will get the support of Parliament, Labour are a poorly-whipped party and their MPs who see this would vote for it anyway. There will be no extension to allow for their proposed faffing, come April 2019 we are out, whether they like the proposed deal or not.
alfie2244 said:
///ajd said:
There is a sizable risk that easily enough tory MPs could back such a demand. Soubry et al.
Then what?Art 50 process paused, the two years is not cast in stone or irreversible.
It might depend on how shambolic the deal is. If in 18 months you have banks, car manuf saying "that won't keep us here", then there could well be a wider debate on whether the Nation was lied to and sold a false promise on brexit utopia (it was of course).
Then ref 2, gobs
te lies exposed, we stay in, job jobbed. Economy saved - the bottom line for most.The vote was very close, the kipper echo chamber here is not representative!
///ajd said:
Then ref 2, gobste lies exposed, we stay in, job jobbed. Economy saved - the bottom line for most.
Wasn't that supposed to happen with A50? te lies exposed, we stay in, job jobbed. Economy saved - the bottom line for most.
Anthem For The Remain Lost Cause
///ajd said:
Various scenarios.
Art 50 process paused, the two years is not cast in stone or irreversible.
It might depend on how shambolic the deal is. If in 18 months you have banks, car manuf saying "that won't keep us here", then there could well be a wider debate on whether the Nation was lied to and sold a false promise on brexit utopia (it was of course).
Then ref 2, gobste lies exposed, we stay in, job jobbed. Economy saved - the bottom line for most.
The vote was very close, the kipper echo chamber here is not representative!
You are making the assumption that if there is no deal and talks collapse in acrimony the UK public will blame the Government and possibly the Leave campaigners. They might, of course. There is equally a possibility that they will blame the EU and the "Europeans" and in the event if another referendum the British, in that bloody mindedness way the British sometimes vote, vote 60/40 to say stuff it to them. In otherwords what you are proposing is a very dangerous game with an equal chance of creating a chasm so wide and so bitter that it will reverberate between the UK and mainland Europe for 100 years.Art 50 process paused, the two years is not cast in stone or irreversible.
It might depend on how shambolic the deal is. If in 18 months you have banks, car manuf saying "that won't keep us here", then there could well be a wider debate on whether the Nation was lied to and sold a false promise on brexit utopia (it was of course).
Then ref 2, gobs
te lies exposed, we stay in, job jobbed. Economy saved - the bottom line for most.The vote was very close, the kipper echo chamber here is not representative!
turbobloke said:
///ajd said:
Then ref 2, gobste lies exposed, we stay in, job jobbed. Economy saved - the bottom line for most.
Wasn't that supposed to happen with A50? te lies exposed, we stay in, job jobbed. Economy saved - the bottom line for most.Anthem For The Remain Lost Cause
alfie2244 said:
turbobloke said:
alfie2244 said:
"Labour will refuse to vote in the House of Commons for any Brexit deal struck between Theresa May and the 27 remaining EU states unless the deal ensures precisely the same economic and trade benefits as Britain currently gains from full membership."
Well precisely the same deal is 100% certain not to happen...so Labour won't vote for it....then what?
It'll go through anyway?Well precisely the same deal is 100% certain not to happen...so Labour won't vote for it....then what?
There seems to be a (totally wrong in my opinion) assumption here that HMG didn't want Parliament to have a veto on any deal because they were worried about a few pro-EU Tories. They are not. They are worried about the anti ones.
What they are most worried about is coming back with a relatively sensible deal which still involves paying a bit to Brussels and still complying with some ECJ missives in return for decent market access and the "hard core" 140 or so anti-EU Tory MPs going ape st and blocking it or splitting the party.
The fact is, the less meaningful vote Parliament gets, the "softer" the Brexit is likely to be. Why pro-Remainers think getting Parliament more involved and handing more power and possible veto to a group of very hard core anti-EU backbench Tory MPs is likely to result in a softer Brexit I have never been able to work out.
What they are most worried about is coming back with a relatively sensible deal which still involves paying a bit to Brussels and still complying with some ECJ missives in return for decent market access and the "hard core" 140 or so anti-EU Tory MPs going ape s
t and blocking it or splitting the party.The fact is, the less meaningful vote Parliament gets, the "softer" the Brexit is likely to be. Why pro-Remainers think getting Parliament more involved and handing more power and possible veto to a group of very hard core anti-EU backbench Tory MPs is likely to result in a softer Brexit I have never been able to work out.
I can easily see an internal tory political power play scuppering May's Brexit deal. Any vote is likely to happen in the run up to the next election.
Being against Brexit is bad politically, its against the will of the British people and all that nonsense.
Defending our glorious country against a poor deal on the other hand...
Its going to be a crappy deal, there are going to be so many demands and caveats requested by every member state. And at some point the media will start informing the public about what the WTO option actually means.
Being against Brexit is bad politically, its against the will of the British people and all that nonsense.
Defending our glorious country against a poor deal on the other hand...
Its going to be a crappy deal, there are going to be so many demands and caveats requested by every member state. And at some point the media will start informing the public about what the WTO option actually means.
frisbee said:
I can easily see an internal tory political power play scuppering May's Brexit deal. Any vote is likely to happen in the run up to the next election.
Before the run-up? March 2017-March 2019 with the next GE in May 2020.Also, isn't no deal - by whatever route - simply out anyway via WTO?
///ajd said:
powerstroke said:
No he was in Grimsby trying to get a PCP deal on a trawler !!!
You do know that joke is at your expense? No, you probably don't!
we will all be insanely jellous good luck I say ...
confused_buyer said:
You are making the assumption that if there is no deal and talks collapse in acrimony the UK public will blame the Government and possibly the Leave campaigners. They might, of course. There is equally a possibility that they will blame the EU and the "Europeans" and in the event if another referendum the British, in that bloody mindedness way the British sometimes vote, vote 60/40 to say stuff it to them. In otherwords what you are proposing is a very dangerous game with an equal chance of creating a chasm so wide and so bitter that it will reverberate between the UK and mainland Europe for 100 years.
You have the hope that people realise they should blame the govt and vote leave - what the EU can and can't offer was always largely predictable.It is a gamble, but no more so than the original vote. Funny how there is a sudden worry about our relationship with the EU - that can only improve if they can see the UK population at least try and do the right thing with the EU and not try and selfishly dump them.
Dangerous, maybe, but no less dangerous than the current omnishambles.
confused_buyer said:
There seems to be a (totally wrong in my opinion) assumption here that HMG didn't want Parliament to have a veto on any deal because they were worried about a few pro-EU Tories. They are not. They are worried about the anti ones.
What they are most worried about is coming back with a relatively sensible deal which still involves paying a bit to Brussels and still complying with some ECJ missives in return for decent market access and the "hard core" 140 or so anti-EU Tory MPs going ape st and blocking it or splitting the party.
The fact is, the less meaningful vote Parliament gets, the "softer" the Brexit is likely to be. Why pro-Remainers think getting Parliament more involved and handing more power and possible veto to a group of very hard core anti-EU backbench Tory MPs is likely to result in a softer Brexit I have never been able to work out.
I think you argent hinges on whether there is a split in the tories and it ends up with soft brexit team being a clear overall majority in parliament, irrespective of party. Remainers still have a large majority of HoP across all parties - you can assume they are all pretty much worried about the SM and trade and will vote in best interests of the nation, as they should.What they are most worried about is coming back with a relatively sensible deal which still involves paying a bit to Brussels and still complying with some ECJ missives in return for decent market access and the "hard core" 140 or so anti-EU Tory MPs going ape s
t and blocking it or splitting the party.The fact is, the less meaningful vote Parliament gets, the "softer" the Brexit is likely to be. Why pro-Remainers think getting Parliament more involved and handing more power and possible veto to a group of very hard core anti-EU backbench Tory MPs is likely to result in a softer Brexit I have never been able to work out.
///ajd said:
You have the hope that people realise they should blame the govt and vote leave - what the EU can and can't offer was always largely predictable.
It is a gamble, but no more so than the original vote. Funny how there is a sudden worry about our relationship with the EU - that can only improve if they can see the UK population at least try and do the right thing with the EU and not try and selfishly dump them.
Dangerous, maybe, but no less dangerous than the current omnishambles.
It is a gamble, but no more so than the original vote. Funny how there is a sudden worry about our relationship with the EU - that can only improve if they can see the UK population at least try and do the right thing with the EU and not try and selfishly dump them.
Dangerous, maybe, but no less dangerous than the current omnishambles.
alfie2244 said:
///ajd said:
Art 50 process paused, the two years is not cast in stone or irreversible.
With European elections going on all over the place in the next 18 months 27 EU countries + the Walloons will agree to an extension will they? Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff