Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election

[paulrockliffe]

There's not really anything to be drawn from this result at all.

Of course Labour finished 4th, they're not going to collect any votes based on policy and everyone that voted to remain will have stayed at home or voted for the Liberals. (I think they dropped the Democrat bit on Tuesday night...)

The Conservatives got their usual vote and UKIP picked up the "Conservatives will win, so we can split the vote and keep the Brexit pressure on." vote and the Labour leave vote too.

The result was entirely predictable, with no new meaning. The only bit of interest, and that was predictable too, is that the BBC aren't running with it as meaning the opposite of what they told us Richmond must mean.

[FredClogs]

The BBC covered it on R5 this morning, including a clip of Paul Nuttals of the UKIPs response/speech. I also caught a bit on R4 Today program and its on the front page of the bbc website, second box from the top.

The reason its not a big deal really is that the seat was held and there was only a very small % shift in the votes cast for the other parties, yes UKIP came second which I know will be cause of much celebration to some but their % of the vote didn't change to any great degree.

[Dindoit]

Biker 1 said:

Remember all the hoo-ha from the BBC regarding the Richmond by-election? Front page news. Tim Farron gloating. The BBC giving hours of airtime. The Sleaford result isn't even the lead item for BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news
Perhaps this should be on the BBC bias topic...
Whatever, it looks more & more like Labour are doomed. I wonder when (not if) they'll finish behind the Monster Raving Loony party in an election....

Maybe it's because the Richmond story featured a famous multi-millionaire failed mayoral candidate who'd recently resigned over Heathrow and had his 25k majority overturned. Most people couldn't point to Sleaford or North Hykeham on a map and the seat was held.

I've noticed the BBC gets a bad rap on these pages but then confirmation bias is a strong force.

[Esseesse]

Kermit power said:

Smiler. said:

I thought UKIP were "finished"

I suppose they might hang on until Article 50 has been triggered, or possibly even until we actually leave, but realistically, of course they're finished.

What if Labour are finished?

I think the Lib Dems did well unless pre 2015 this is normally a good seat for them, haven't looked. Labour did the worst. Conservatives did fine. UKIP did well in terms of position but not vote share, not much to crow about.

[SKP555]

Esseesse said:

What if Labour are finished?

I think the Lib Dems did well unless pre 2015 this is normally a good seat for them, haven't looked. Labour did the worst. Conservatives did fine. UKIP did well in terms of position but not vote share, not much to crow about.

I suppose it depends on how the next few years pan out. If UKIP can position themselves as the alternative in pro Brexit seats and the process drags on or heads towards a fudge then they could threaten even seats like this. Especially if they get their act together at a national level.

[Digga]

SKP555 said:

Esseesse said:

What if Labour are finished?

I think the Lib Dems did well unless pre 2015 this is normally a good seat for them, haven't looked. Labour did the worst. Conservatives did fine. UKIP did well in terms of position but not vote share, not much to crow about.

I suppose it depends on how the next few years pan out. If UKIP can position themselves as the alternative in pro Brexit seats and the process drags on or heads towards a fudge then they could threaten even seats like this. Especially if they get their act together at a national level.

I speak to a lot of ordinary working people of all ages, I do not think it is a case of what if. That ship sailed when the loopy left began shouting 'racist' as their main debating tactic. It's gone. Done. Decades of Conservative campaigning failed to inflict anything like the same damage Labour has done to themselves by not listening to real voters, and then electing an unelectable leader.

You can say what you like about Farage, but one of his strengths was his ability and preparedness to actually engage with the public, unscripted, unfiltered and and protected by neatly choreographed or selected crowds. There are few who are able to do this - to be fair, and despite being a clown, Boris Johnson also has this rare talent.

[wc98]

BlackLabel said:

Labour were a few hundred votes away from coming 5th yet their losing candidate said he was proud of how they did.

""But we're proud of what we did. We kept our deposit which some people said we were going to lose.""

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38258976

yay ! everyone's a winner . i am sure they all got a prize of some sort nice to see the country strengthening the brexit mandate though

[Digga]

wc98 said:

yay ! everyone's a winner . i am sure they all got a prize of some sort nice to see the country strengthening the brexit mandate though

Yes, I'm wondering if and when they begin to suggest that declaring winners is, in some way, discriminatory and elitist?

[wc98]

Digga said:

I speak to a lot of ordinary working people of all ages, I do not think it is a case of what if. That ship sailed when the loopy left began shouting 'racist' as their main debating tactic. It's gone. Done. Decades of Conservative campaigning failed to inflict anything like the same damage Labour has done to themselves by not listening to real voters, and then electing an unelectable leader.

You can say what you like about Farage, but one of his strengths was his ability and preparedness to actually engage with the public, unscripted, unfiltered and and protected by neatly choreographed or selected crowds. There are few who are able to do this - to be fair, and despite being a clown, Boris Johnson also has this rare talent.

i pretty much agree with all of that,although i think the time is now ripe for a person or group with real integrity to lay waste to politics and the traditional parties, all of them , across the uk. i suppose the opposite is also true, it could well be an individual or group that lie well and say the right things. i do not think anyone connected with the current political establishment has much chance of achieving much. while i accept boris and farage have a lot of support in some areas they limited appeal nationwide.

the only trouble with this view is it appears it has been a very long time since a number of people with integrity got involved in politics, certainly in one cohesive group. as has been said numerous times over the last few years, we live in interesting times.

[Northern Munkee]

Biker 1 said:

Remember all the hoo-ha from the BBC regarding the Richmond by-election? Front page news. Tim Farron gloating. The BBC giving hours of airtime. The Sleaford result isn't even the lead item for BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news
Perhaps this should be on the BBC bias topic...
Whatever, it looks more & more like Labour are doomed. I wonder when (not if) they'll finish behind the Monster Raving Loony party in an election....

I told you above, bias is clear, the method is subtle. Ignore it, or if necessary preface an awkward fact with a slightly negative adjective, drip, drip, drip.

[Deptford Draylons]

I thought the LibDems were now the the Remain voters choice now ? They got 11% of the vote.

[Murph7355]

Deptford Draylons said:

I thought the LibDems were now the the Remain voters choice now ? They got 11% of the vote.

They seem quite adept at garnering less votes than the %age of people who actually voted Remain in an area. People are surely not ignoring Mr Farron?

It'd be really nice to see his local constituents demonstrate how much they appreciate his policy at the next GE.

[FN2TypeR]

Murph7355 said:

Deptford Draylons said:

I thought the LibDems were now the the Remain voters choice now ? They got 11% of the vote.

They seem quite adept at garnering less votes than the %age of people who actually voted Remain in an area. People are surely not ignoring Mr Farron?

It'd be really nice to see his local constituents demonstrate how much they appreciate his policy at the next GE.

His majority is reasonably sizeable - nine thousand or so votes, so I doubt his arse is collapsing just yet.

Although he did drop voters in 2015, but then again I don't think there is a Lib Dem that didn't!

[Murph7355]

FN2TypeR said:

His majority is reasonably sizeable - nine thousand or so votes, so I doubt his arse is collapsing just yet.

Although he did drop voters in 2015, but then again I don't think there is a Lib Dem that didn't!

Which would make it all the more amusing if the Leave contingent decided they'd had enough of his bullst

[johnxjsc1985]

Was Farron there to claim another Victory for the Lib Dems they have a real winner there.
UKIP will be very strong in some areas if Brexit is diluted or even over turned. Labour's new stance is not to lose deposits that a real ambitious agenda they have for the next Election.
Why do we have so little quality in our Politicians.

[funkyrobot]

I was in Sleaford on Tuesday for a dentist appointment (I also worked there until May this year). I have never seen such a flurry of campaigning anywhere else.

I walked down the high street with my fiancé and the candidates were out in force, trying to thrust their stupid leaflets into our hands. My fiancée ended up with a UKIP one. It went straight into the bin further down the street.

The place is wall to wall blue and the result was never in doubt. When driving from a neighbouring village where my parents live to Sleaford, we noticed pretty much all of the fields displaying a vote conservative poster.

It's the same where I live in Spalding. Unfortunately.

[FiF]

Having said there's nothing significant to be drawn from this poll, which is correct, perhaps we should consider the latest YouGov poll for Westminster GE voting intention.

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
UKIP: 12% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via YouGov / 04 - 05 Dec)

[Esseesse]

FiF said:

Having said there's nothing significant to be drawn from this poll, which is correct, perhaps we should consider the latest YouGov poll for Westminster GE voting intention.

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
UKIP: 12% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via YouGov / 04 - 05 Dec)

I wonder if these voting intentions sometimes discount the tactical nature of voting for many people. For example a Conservative in a Labour seat with UKIP in second.

[Jockman]

Esseesse said:

I wonder if these voting intentions sometimes discount the tactical nature of voting for many people. For example a Conservative in a Labour seat with UKIP in second.

Is this what happened in Richmond?

[230TE]

Esseesse said:

FiF said:

Having said there's nothing significant to be drawn from this poll, which is correct, perhaps we should consider the latest YouGov poll for Westminster GE voting intention.

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
UKIP: 12% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via YouGov / 04 - 05 Dec)

I wonder if these voting intentions sometimes discount the tactical nature of voting for many people. For example a Conservative in a Labour seat with UKIP in second.

I should think that on a national basis, any tactical voting effects will cancel each other out. I get the impression however that some people on here actually think that 48% of the electorate will tactically vote Lib Dem to keep us in the EU Bless them.