Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election

[///ajd]

230TE said:

Esseesse said:

FiF said:

Having said there's nothing significant to be drawn from this poll, which is correct, perhaps we should consider the latest YouGov poll for Westminster GE voting intention.

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
UKIP: 12% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via YouGov / 04 - 05 Dec)

I wonder if these voting intentions sometimes discount the tactical nature of voting for many people. For example a Conservative in a Labour seat with UKIP in second.

I should think that on a national basis, any tactical voting effects will cancel each other out. I get the impression however that some people on here actually think that 48% of the electorate will tactically vote Lib Dem to keep us in the EU Bless them.

I don't think it will come to that.

But even in Sleaford with a low turnout and a barely literate candidate going by that Ch4 video - the libdems almost doubled their % of the vote from 5.7% in 2015 to 11% at this election.

At the same time actual votes for UKIP were less than half - down from 9,700 in 2015 to 4,400 at this election.

There is movement here, and it even though in times gone by UKIP have only got a single MP (Carswell who in some respects doesn't count), the shifting support for UKIP was seen as the threat which triggered the stupid EU referendum in the first place.

So whilst I don't see LimDebs sweeping to power, there are messages here from the electorate. Some of the 48% are counter-protesting.

[johnxjsc1985]

230TE said:

I should think that on a national basis, any tactical voting effects will cancel each other out. I get the impression however that some people on here actually think that 48% of the electorate will tactically vote Lib Dem to keep us in the EU Bless them.

let them keep the dream alive.

[FN2TypeR]

johnxjsc1985 said:

230TE said:

I should think that on a national basis, any tactical voting effects will cancel each other out. I get the impression however that some people on here actually think that 48% of the electorate will tactically vote Lib Dem to keep us in the EU Bless them.

let them keep the dream alive.

I saw polling figures the other day that put them on 11% and 12% respectively.

DOUBLE FIGURES

[FiF]

Message from the electorate is




And that's the Labour truck, not the referendum bus, just to make the message clear for the challenged. Labour won't need a bus, maybe a crew cab at best.

[johnxjsc1985]

FN2TypeR said:

I saw polling figures the other day that put them on 11% and 12% respectively.

DOUBLE FIGURES

Lib Dems are on the march they attracted 106 more votes than in 2015.

[confused_buyer]

230TE said:

I should think that on a national basis, any tactical voting effects will cancel each other out. I get the impression however that some people on here actually think that 48% of the electorate will tactically vote Lib Dem to keep us in the EU Bless them.

On a national swing, with the new boundaries those poll figures would put the LibDems on 9-10 seats, Labour on about 140 and the Conservatives with a majority of 160-170.

[johnxjsc1985]

confused_buyer said:

On a national swing, with the new boundaries those poll figures would put the LibDems on 9-10 seats, Labour on about 140 and the Conservatives with a majority of 160-170.

Is Corbyn a long term Conservative "sleeper" now fulfilling his mission to destroy the Labour Party. I struggle to think what else his purpose could be