The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
don4l said:
cookie118 said:
The article also said she is prepared to strike a transitional deal (as is David Davis), so we may end up with a North-proposed Brexit type arrangement with a transitional deal followed by an orderly pull-out over several years.
For God's sake!When are you all going to wake up?
Ten months ago I put forward our two stage exit strategy, and most of you mocked me.
1) Invoke Article 50.
2) Leave.
Today's headline on the front page of the Sunday Telegraph is:-
"May's big gamble on a clean Brexit". It appears that she is going to give a speech on Tuesday during which she will tell the EU to sod off.
There isn't a hope in Hell that we can agree a deal with 27 countries. The sooner that people realise this simple truth, the sooner we can start making proper plans for the future.
Mrr T said:
don4l said:
cookie118 said:
The article also said she is prepared to strike a transitional deal (as is David Davis), so we may end up with a North-proposed Brexit type arrangement with a transitional deal followed by an orderly pull-out over several years.
For God's sake!When are you all going to wake up?
Ten months ago I put forward our two stage exit strategy, and most of you mocked me.
1) Invoke Article 50.
2) Leave.
Today's headline on the front page of the Sunday Telegraph is:-
"May's big gamble on a clean Brexit". It appears that she is going to give a speech on Tuesday during which she will tell the EU to sod off.
There isn't a hope in Hell that we can agree a deal with 27 countries. The sooner that people realise this simple truth, the sooner we can start making proper plans for the future.
I almost agree with Don4l there is one thing that I want negotiated - get that done and the rest is window dressing
Mrr T said:
davepoth said:
Mrr T said:
You I assume have never any of the ESMA council. Let me assure you if there governments told them to do something they would do the opposite.
You seem to have missed some things from that post, including grammar, punctuation, words, and meaning.However, I'm pretty sure you will have been rebutting my comment, so I'll rebut yours.
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2012/21/part/2...
Here's the section of the Financial Services Act which sets up the FCA and tells it what to do. Amend this act and you amend the work of the FCA. Most regulators across Europe are set up in the same way; amend their respective legislation and you amend their work too. It would be reasonably straightforward to add another strategic objective, even if some in the FCA considered that it ran counter to their other objectives.
In order to get the ESMA board to agree Passporting by 2019 would likely require legislation in 28 countries.
That is not going to happen.
Passporting is no longer being considered. We've moved onto 'equivalence'.
I'm confident that with the EU's requirement to access the UK financial markets that 'equivalence' will not the issue you are making it out to be. The city do not seem to think so.
Ashfordian said:
I'm guessing you have missed this week commentary.
Passporting is no longer being considered. We've moved onto 'equivalence'.
I'm confident that with the EU's requirement to access the UK financial markets that 'equivalence' will not the issue you are making it out to be. The city do not seem to think so.
Equivalence does not give a financial services company the right to sell financial services to EU customers tneeds equivalence and passporting.Passporting is no longer being considered. We've moved onto 'equivalence'.
I'm confident that with the EU's requirement to access the UK financial markets that 'equivalence' will not the issue you are making it out to be. The city do not seem to think so.
Any commentator who say different have no clue about financial service regulations.
The financial service have been clear the must have passporting or jobs in the UK will be lost.
SKP555 said:
It seems to me that the best option is to prepare for no deal at all with all the shocks that entails...
IMO that is the ONLY option. The golden rule of any negotiation is to be prepared to walk away (even if you don't want to). Doesnt matter if you're buying a car or access to the single market. Ignore this and be prepared to have your pants pulled down like Cameron.
Some stuff about 'passporting' for Mrr T, and everyone else of course
https://www.ft.com/content/aa76b168-a5b9-11e6-8898...
https://www.ft.com/content/aa76b168-a5b9-11e6-8898...
As I said a few weeks ago, the City of London is our largest asset to the rest of the EU, The EU is dead if they don't allow the FS sector to provide services to EU countries. They are desperate to not lose their major source of finance and all the ecosystem London provides to enable that at the lowest cost.
It's good to finally see Hammond getting on board in terms of the rhetoric that is required to soften up the EU. He has been playing good cop to May's bad cop whilst time was required to let the EU work out for themselves that they are in trouble if they want to punish the UK. That phase is now over.
It's good to finally see Hammond getting on board in terms of the rhetoric that is required to soften up the EU. He has been playing good cop to May's bad cop whilst time was required to let the EU work out for themselves that they are in trouble if they want to punish the UK. That phase is now over.
SKP555 said:
cookie118 said:
The article also said she is prepared to strike a transitional deal (as is David Davis), so we may end up with a North-proposed Brexit type arrangement with a transitional deal followed by an orderly pull-out over several years.
Sounds sensible to me-but will the harder brexiteers take that?
The headline/news release is a clever piece of politics-the headline is "pull out of single market, customs union and ecj" which will satisfy the pro-brexit media and brexiteers but the detail is a transitional deal that may mean retaing free movement/single market status etc for longer to make sure the process is steady and ordered-which is realistic and sensible.
I'm a "hard brexiteer" but a transitional arrangement wouldn't necessarily be so bad. Whether we end freedom of movement in 2 years or 5 years isn't that important in the scheme of things, so long as it is within a finite and reasonable (vague I know) time frame.Sounds sensible to me-but will the harder brexiteers take that?
The headline/news release is a clever piece of politics-the headline is "pull out of single market, customs union and ecj" which will satisfy the pro-brexit media and brexiteers but the detail is a transitional deal that may mean retaing free movement/single market status etc for longer to make sure the process is steady and ordered-which is realistic and sensible.
I don't see the EU going for that though as it is basically a green light for others to pull out and expect a similar deal.
Mrr T said:
don4l said:
cookie118 said:
The article also said she is prepared to strike a transitional deal (as is David Davis), so we may end up with a North-proposed Brexit type arrangement with a transitional deal followed by an orderly pull-out over several years.
For God's sake!When are you all going to wake up?
Ten months ago I put forward our two stage exit strategy, and most of you mocked me.
1) Invoke Article 50.
2) Leave.
Today's headline on the front page of the Sunday Telegraph is:-
"May's big gamble on a clean Brexit". It appears that she is going to give a speech on Tuesday during which she will tell the EU to sod off.
There isn't a hope in Hell that we can agree a deal with 27 countries. The sooner that people realise this simple truth, the sooner we can start making proper plans for the future.
Don is completely right.
B'stard Child said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
B'stard Child said:
I almost agree with Don4l there is one thing that I want negotiated - get that done and the rest is window dressing
What's that?My view is that after we invoke Article 50, we set a date after which residency rights will not apply. All the EU citizens that currently reside here will retain their residency rights so long as they continue to live here.
I don't foresee any problems for British people living in the EU. Most of them are retirees who contribute to the local economies. If they had to return to the UK there would be a terrible effect on housing markets as well as the local economies.
davepoth said:
Mrr T said:
Not my best post.
In order to get the ESMA board to agree Passporting by 2019 would likely require legislation in 28 countries.
That is not going to happen.
Brexit will need a parliamentary vote in all 27 countries of the EU, so it can be added to that. Job done. In order to get the ESMA board to agree Passporting by 2019 would likely require legislation in 28 countries.
That is not going to happen.
steveT350C said:
Some stuff about 'passporting' for Mrr T, and everyone else of course
https://www.ft.com/content/aa76b168-a5b9-11e6-8898...
Behind a paywall so cannot comment.https://www.ft.com/content/aa76b168-a5b9-11e6-8898...
don4l said:
I don't foresee any problems for British people living in the EU. Most of them are retirees who contribute to the local economies. If they had to return to the UK there would be a terrible effect on housing markets as well as the local economies.
I will take a guess that our leading Brexit buffon does not know what the S1 system is and why it's loss would effect many UK retiree in the rEU.Mrr T said:
don4l said:
I don't foresee any problems for British people living in the EU. Most of them are retirees who contribute to the local economies. If they had to return to the UK there would be a terrible effect on housing markets as well as the local economies.
I will take a guess that our leading Brexit buffon does not know what the S1 system is and why it's loss would effect many UK retiree in the rEU.It's hardly a difficult system to replace, its just a charging back system for a service provided.
Mrr T said:
don4l said:
I don't foresee any problems for British people living in the EU. Most of them are retirees who contribute to the local economies. If they had to return to the UK there would be a terrible effect on housing markets as well as the local economies.
I will take a guess that our leading Brexit buffon does not know what the S1 system is and why it's loss would effect many UK retiree in the rEU.Are you really incapable of spelling "buffoon" correctly?
You only use the apostrophe in "it's" when you are using the contracted form of "it is". It doesn't have an apostrophe when used in the possesive.
You accuse me of being a buffon[sic], and in a single sentence you make four spelling/grammar mistakes.
Your ill-informed arrogance is astounding.
If you cannot write a single sentence without at least four errors, what on Earth makes you think that you can foresee the effects of Brexit?
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