The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
AC43 said:
I've just lost my job (supplier to the banking sector), my mate has just lost his (banking admin) job yet again.
How would you like me to respond to that?That's not good news for you but your mate seems a little careless with jobs if it's "again"
AC43 said:
Today I was abut to tell the cleaner that I'm going to cut her hours but husband (a driver) has just lost his job so I didn't have the stomach.
Was her husbands job loss due to Brexit? AC43 said:
Thanks to Brexit everyone in London is looking over their shoulders, things are going on hold, organisations are cutting back.
I've paid a hell of a lot of income tax and property gains tax over the last decade but that's all reset to zero now.
It seems that if you've paid a lot of income tax and property gains tax over the years but haven't planned for a rainy day that would be somewhat irresponsibleI've paid a hell of a lot of income tax and property gains tax over the last decade but that's all reset to zero now.
Is this a request for crowd funding?
I voted leave in the referendum knowing that there would be an impact (regrettable though it is for those personally affected - which could also as easily be me) but firmly believe that in the long term we as a country will be better off.
Greg66 said:
desolate said:
I *think* the government's position is that if we don't get a decent deal then we will try to smash the system by becoming a de facto "off shore" haven, but with a scale and infrastructure unlike anything before. So if we lose on the EU swings, we should/could gain on the global roundabouts.
That's what I understand the Govt's strategy to be too. Whether it will work is a different question, obviously. A further factor to go into the pot, as I think stongle mentioned, is the likelihood that Trump's protectionism/isolationism may drive a push to make NY the global financial centre. London could find itself fighting hard for business on two fronts.
As for any Trump rhetoric of making New York the world’s financial centre that says more about Trump than any reality.
I keep saying FS does not exists in isolation. FS exists to service customers, and most of the most profitable bits of FS is to provide service to the large corporates and fund managers. So let’s take BMW it is head quartered oddly enough in German. There are very strict rules about who can sell to a German company. To sell FS to a German company you must be a regulated entity in the EU. It quite possible for the EU based sales person to visit BMW with say an America SME to present a product. However, if the SME from a FS company without a regulated entity in the EU visits BMW to sell a financial service he is committing a crime.
Mrr T said:
That’s seems to be the rhetoric but I noticed the Government have no plans as to how it would work. The idea of the UK cutting taxes!!!! FFS do you not realise we are still running a structural deficit.
As for any Trump rhetoric of making New York the world’s financial centre that says more about Trump than any reality.
I keep saying FS does not exists in isolation. FS exists to service customers, and most of the most profitable bits of FS is to provide service to the large corporates and fund managers. So let’s take BMW it is head quartered oddly enough in German. There are very strict rules about who can sell to a German company. To sell FS to a German company you must be a regulated entity in the EU. It quite possible for the EU based sales person to visit BMW with say an America SME to present a product. However, if the SME from a FS company without a regulated entity in the EU visits BMW to sell a financial service he is committing a crime.
It looks like firms will have to regulate in one EU entity and passport from there.As for any Trump rhetoric of making New York the world’s financial centre that says more about Trump than any reality.
I keep saying FS does not exists in isolation. FS exists to service customers, and most of the most profitable bits of FS is to provide service to the large corporates and fund managers. So let’s take BMW it is head quartered oddly enough in German. There are very strict rules about who can sell to a German company. To sell FS to a German company you must be a regulated entity in the EU. It quite possible for the EU based sales person to visit BMW with say an America SME to present a product. However, if the SME from a FS company without a regulated entity in the EU visits BMW to sell a financial service he is committing a crime.
I can only talk from an SME perspective but I used to sell a general insurance product from the UK. Filled a form in and got passport information within days and I was selling almost immediately.
In the wide scheme of things I am not sure that SME passporting is mission critical though.
It does seem a high risk strategy that the government is deploying.
B'stard Child said:
It seems that if you've paid a lot of income tax and property gains tax over the years but haven't planned for a rainy day that would be somewhat irresponsible.
Again, thankyou for your concern. The loss of my job falls into the "things I could do without category".I'm doing fine, thanks. The house is paid off, I own my cars, I have no borrowings. I have a large amount out aside for a house rennovation (on which I would have paid loads of tax) but may defer that.
I'm just wondering how many jobs have popped up in Stoke to replace the ones lost in London.
None?
Thought not.
I'll have another look in 5 years. Just in case.
desolate said:
It does seem a high risk strategy that the government is deploying.
Yep – it is high risk… very.We do have many bullets in the gun, not just cutting CT.
Loosing passporting is bad for European firms, especially those in London hoping to access HFs, UK Insurance, UK AM etc. Passporting works (or hurts) both ways.
They would almost certainly be required to submit to FCA & BoE supervision. The prudential standards here are higher than Europe. Having a non-home state (particularly prudential) regulator crawling through your books, is going to be an issue particularly the FCA (whom are at the Peruvian Death squad end of the regulatory scale compared to BAFIN’s Dads Army impression).
There are going to be a lot of European CEOs being properly “miffed”, if this gets out of hand.
It’ll be interesting to see whom has the “minerals” to see this one through. The ECB can’t even make QE work at the Euro Area Central bank level…
Edited by stongle on Thursday 19th January 14:56
AC43 said:
It's very kind of you to think about us Southerners.
I've just lost my job (supplier to the banking sector), my mate has just lost his (banking admin) job yet again.
Today I was abut to tell the cleaner that I'm going to cut her hours but husband (a driver) has just lost his job so I didn't have the stomach.
Thanks to Brexit everyone in London is looking over their shoulders, things are going on hold, organisations are cutting back.
I've paid a hell of a lot of income tax and property gains tax over the last decade but that's all reset to zero now.
Still, the tube will be quieter.
FFS you don't half spout some sh*te.
You, and the people that you know, appear to be most unfortunate. Unemployment has fallen quite significantly across the UK since June.I've just lost my job (supplier to the banking sector), my mate has just lost his (banking admin) job yet again.
Today I was abut to tell the cleaner that I'm going to cut her hours but husband (a driver) has just lost his job so I didn't have the stomach.
Thanks to Brexit everyone in London is looking over their shoulders, things are going on hold, organisations are cutting back.
I've paid a hell of a lot of income tax and property gains tax over the last decade but that's all reset to zero now.
Still, the tube will be quieter.
FFS you don't half spout some sh*te.
This means that the tube will be busier.
Yipper said:
Hard Brexit is going to be very bad for London.
Jobs are already trickling abroad to NY, Paris and Frankfurt.
London is Britain's last remaining economic powerhouse.
London will drag down UK.
We have a very tough decade ahead.
Maybe more accurately, London might be less able to keep the rest of the UK afloat. Jobs are already trickling abroad to NY, Paris and Frankfurt.
London is Britain's last remaining economic powerhouse.
London will drag down UK.
We have a very tough decade ahead.
B'stard Child said:
AC43 said:
I've just lost my job (supplier to the banking sector), my mate has just lost his (banking admin) job yet again.
How would you like me to respond to that?That's not good news for you but your mate seems a little careless with jobs if it's "again"
AC43 said:
Today I was abut to tell the cleaner that I'm going to cut her hours but husband (a driver) has just lost his job so I didn't have the stomach.
Was her husbands job loss due to Brexit? AC43 said:
Thanks to Brexit everyone in London is looking over their shoulders, things are going on hold, organisations are cutting back.
I've paid a hell of a lot of income tax and property gains tax over the last decade but that's all reset to zero now.
It seems that if you've paid a lot of income tax and property gains tax over the years but haven't planned for a rainy day that would be somewhat irresponsibleI've paid a hell of a lot of income tax and property gains tax over the last decade but that's all reset to zero now.
Is this a request for crowd funding?
I voted leave in the referendum knowing that there would be an impact (regrettable though it is for those personally affected - which could also as easily be me) but firmly believe that in the long term we as a country will be better off.
Where London goes, the rest of the country follows. Theresa May's brinkmanship over the possibility of striking no deal at all is risky in the extreme.
And a note to Mr Hammond. Making this country a haven for tax dodgers isn't going to plug the hole of a vastly reduced tax take if the City takes a beating.
And a note to Mr Hammond. Making this country a haven for tax dodgers isn't going to plug the hole of a vastly reduced tax take if the City takes a beating.
BMRuss said:
AC43 said:
I've just lost my job (supplier to the banking sector), my mate has just lost his (banking admin) job yet again.
Sorry to hear that, hope this won't stop you attending the mighty R's! 
As soon as the Burton game was moved to the 28th at 3.00 pm I grabbed tickets for me and the kids.
I'm basically boycotting the ones at stupid times - eg Fulham at 12.30.
The last one league kickoff at 3.00 on a Saturday was about six weeks ago or something.
It wasn't like this before Brexit, I'm telling you.
:-)
Murph7355 said:
AC43 said:
I've just lost my job (supplier to the banking sector), my mate has just lost his (banking admin) job yet again.
Were you a perm or a contractor AC43? (You were doing risk systems for banks? I may have you confused with someone else!?) There are other jobs for which I'm welcome to apply (err...thanks...) but not in FS. Weighing up my options.
It's not going to kill me be but it's inconvenient.
AC43 said:
LOL. Certainly not!
As soon as the Burton game was moved to the 28th at 3.00 pm I grabbed tickets for me and the kids.
I'm basically boycotting the ones at stupid times - eg Fulham at 12.30.
The last one league kickoff at 3.00 on a Saturday was about six weeks ago or something.
It wasn't like this before Brexit, I'm telling you.
:-)
Glad to hear! I'm going Saturday, I think it's in the bag As soon as the Burton game was moved to the 28th at 3.00 pm I grabbed tickets for me and the kids.
I'm basically boycotting the ones at stupid times - eg Fulham at 12.30.
The last one league kickoff at 3.00 on a Saturday was about six weeks ago or something.
It wasn't like this before Brexit, I'm telling you.
:-)
sorry off topic!Digga said:
AC43 said:
I've just lost my job (supplier to the banking sector), my mate has just lost his (banking admin) job yet again.
Sorry to hear that. Hope something turns up PDQ.I do worry whether the city of London's 'outlier' performance, both in terms of its global financial significance and also it's dominant position within the UK economy are not a source for long term concern? Can it continue at present magnitude? Could there be some reversion to mean?
My gut feeling is it can, but at the same time, there is a risk, no matter how small.
At least by leaving it will accelerate banking industry reform.
The top banks simply cannot sustain the levels of pay that have been defacto for over 20 years. The end game for many banks is already here, some of them are simply zombie companies.
Carl_Manchester said:
The problem with banking is that it has structural problems which cannot be fixed by staying in the EU.
At least by leaving it will accelerate banking industry reform.
The top banks simply cannot sustain the levels of pay that have been defacto for over 20 years. The end game for many banks is already here, some of them are simply zombie companies.
Which ones out of interest? I have quite a lot of firepower I am willing to put to work on the short side!At least by leaving it will accelerate banking industry reform.
The top banks simply cannot sustain the levels of pay that have been defacto for over 20 years. The end game for many banks is already here, some of them are simply zombie companies.
AC43 said:
powerstroke said:
Greg66 said:
davepoth said:
Greg66 said:
like it or not some employers are starting to make decisions.
Net economic impact of this so far?5,000 workers, let's say they're on £100,000 a year average. They each pay £35,000 in tax and NI, and the company will pay in £12,000 in NI contributions. Let's say a nice even £50,000. That's £250m.
It sounds like a lot of money, and it is. It's also about 0.01% of GDP, which sounds a lot less.
It also doesn't take any account of workers that banks move in to London to take account of what will almost certainly be a more business friendly environment.
(You seem to be assuming some fairly low incomes, and not putting any figure on the CT on the profits those employers might generate for their employers. And then there's their income which ceases to be pushed back into the economy elsewhere...)
maybe less is more ???
I've just lost my job (supplier to the banking sector), my mate has just lost his (banking admin) job yet again.
Today I was abut to tell the cleaner that I'm going to cut her hours but husband (a driver) has just lost his job so I didn't have the stomach.
Thanks to Brexit everyone in London is looking over their shoulders, things are going on hold, organisations are cutting back.
I've paid a hell of a lot of income tax and property gains tax over the last decade but that's all reset to zero now.
Still, the tube will be quieter.
FFS you don't half spout some sh*te.
Am afraid brexit has magnified lot of small minded jealous people around who still have no idea how vital the CoL is to the economy....they just want to see all those bankers 'fail'... clear sign of the country coming together....
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