The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
Carl_Manchester said:
Digga said:
AC43 said:
I've just lost my job (supplier to the banking sector), my mate has just lost his (banking admin) job yet again.
Sorry to hear that. Hope something turns up PDQ.I do worry whether the city of London's 'outlier' performance, both in terms of its global financial significance and also it's dominant position within the UK economy are not a source for long term concern? Can it continue at present magnitude? Could there be some reversion to mean?
My gut feeling is it can, but at the same time, there is a risk, no matter how small.
At least by leaving it will accelerate banking industry reform.
The top banks simply cannot sustain the levels of pay that have been defacto for over 20 years. The end game for many banks is already here, some of them are simply zombie companies.
kurt535 said:
You get paid if you delivered....simple really.
I put it to you that actually the reverse happened. People got got paid and so spectacularly under delivered as a unit that, over a long period, you were better off putting the money in a DAX/FTSE index tracker than you were actually buying stock in these guys.In some of the banks cases, overall, you are running at a 30 year loss due to the share dilution involved with continually over-paying the staff.
The sad thing is, its still happening right now, it is almost as if they don't acknowledge that the party is over.
slow_poke said:
B'stard Child said:
AC43 said:
I've just lost my job (supplier to the banking sector), my mate has just lost his (banking admin) job yet again.
How would you like me to respond to that?That's not good news for you but your mate seems a little careless with jobs if it's "again"
AC43 said:
Today I was abut to tell the cleaner that I'm going to cut her hours but husband (a driver) has just lost his job so I didn't have the stomach.
Was her husbands job loss due to Brexit? AC43 said:
Thanks to Brexit everyone in London is looking over their shoulders, things are going on hold, organisations are cutting back.
I've paid a hell of a lot of income tax and property gains tax over the last decade but that's all reset to zero now.
It seems that if you've paid a lot of income tax and property gains tax over the years but haven't planned for a rainy day that would be somewhat irresponsibleI've paid a hell of a lot of income tax and property gains tax over the last decade but that's all reset to zero now.
Is this a request for crowd funding?
I voted leave in the referendum knowing that there would be an impact (regrettable though it is for those personally affected - which could also as easily be me) but firmly believe that in the long term we as a country will be better off.
Sorry to hear your news AC43.
I find it quite perplexing how the government appears to be just standing by saying "whatever" amid these declarations about job moves by banks.
They did at least pretend to give a toss when TATA was looking at closing steel works. But I can't see any attempt to stem the departure of all this city revenue.
A hub for foreign investment? It rings a bit hollow at the moment.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/davo...
How the EU see us. How Daily Mail readers see us.
I find it quite perplexing how the government appears to be just standing by saying "whatever" amid these declarations about job moves by banks.
They did at least pretend to give a toss when TATA was looking at closing steel works. But I can't see any attempt to stem the departure of all this city revenue.
A hub for foreign investment? It rings a bit hollow at the moment.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/davo...
How the EU see us. How Daily Mail readers see us.
Blimey slasher outdrawn by footmouth 
http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
Edited by alfie2244 on Thursday 19th January 20:47
SKP555 said:
The thing with the Nicholas Boyle argument is that even if he is correct about the initial emotional reasons for being suspicious of the EU it doesn't answer any of the perfectly rational economic or political arguments against EU membership. Just an emotional counter response that we're too small and insignificant to survive on our own, and anyway not very nice.
Same argument has been around for ever and it's never cut it.
Must've missed those - or were they the ones about selling jam?Same argument has been around for ever and it's never cut it.
Carl_Manchester said:
kurt535 said:
You get paid if you delivered....simple really.
I put it to you that actually the reverse happened. People got got paid and so spectacularly under delivered as a unit that, over a long period, you were better off putting the money in a DAX/FTSE index tracker than you were actually buying stock in these guys.In some of the banks cases, overall, you are running at a 30 year loss due to the share dilution involved with continually over-paying the staff.
The sad thing is, its still happening right now, it is almost as if they don't acknowledge that the party is over.
I'd also add the term 'bankers' is so wide of the descriptive mark of the collective financial services of this country it's really surprising how unknowledgable so many are how we raise a massive amount of tax receipts.
Just watched an interesting live interview at Davos with George Soros.
To say he kicked the EU is being very kind, he described them as dysfunctional and tied in to Treaties that are not fit for purpose in current times. He said the problem now is that to change the treaties to suit the times would require referendums in the various states, and those will never get through, so what is now happening is they have resorted to letting the lawyers run policy, using loopholes in the law to make any required changes. This is slow and doesn't function properly.
He said in his discussions with the EU people, they all understand this, but cant say it in public, so it's basically fooked.
Interestingly, he recons May wont last as PM.
He absolutely hates Trump too, says he is a dictator but thanks to the US constitution he wont be allowed to act as one. He said he wants to see him fail because that would bolster the more open version of society.
He took a massive shot at Hungary too.
The basic thread throughout was that the EU is disintegrating, they know they are going in the wrong direction but cant stop it.
He also suggested China is about to become a more closed society and will roll back on opening up the government to more public scrutiny, he said there is a large number of officials that want it to open up, but they wont win the argument.
he thinks the USA and China are about to start a trade war.
To say he kicked the EU is being very kind, he described them as dysfunctional and tied in to Treaties that are not fit for purpose in current times. He said the problem now is that to change the treaties to suit the times would require referendums in the various states, and those will never get through, so what is now happening is they have resorted to letting the lawyers run policy, using loopholes in the law to make any required changes. This is slow and doesn't function properly.
He said in his discussions with the EU people, they all understand this, but cant say it in public, so it's basically fooked.
Interestingly, he recons May wont last as PM.
He absolutely hates Trump too, says he is a dictator but thanks to the US constitution he wont be allowed to act as one. He said he wants to see him fail because that would bolster the more open version of society.
He took a massive shot at Hungary too.
The basic thread throughout was that the EU is disintegrating, they know they are going in the wrong direction but cant stop it.
He also suggested China is about to become a more closed society and will roll back on opening up the government to more public scrutiny, he said there is a large number of officials that want it to open up, but they wont win the argument.
he thinks the USA and China are about to start a trade war.
kurt535 said:
Your generalisation is quite a normal, widespread held belief; but I really don't know one pal who gets paid for losing money; not one. Some of them have now been in the chair since 1987.
I'd also add the term 'bankers' is so wide of the descriptive mark of the collective financial services of this country it's really surprising how unknowledgable so many are how we raise a massive amount of tax receipts.
You are talking cross purposes, as you well know banks are trading at a significant discount to book value. It has nothing to do with revenue producers. I find it strange you only know brokers or traders, especially when the ratio of support staff to traders can be as high as 20:1.I'd also add the term 'bankers' is so wide of the descriptive mark of the collective financial services of this country it's really surprising how unknowledgable so many are how we raise a massive amount of tax receipts.
Since Brexit, ING has moved staff into London, Wells Fargo spent £300m on a new headquarters and creation of 2k jobs, I've hired (tiny end of the scale) etc. The net losses are not the same as the headline grabbers.
You should take heart that Soro's is saying the same as some of us have been in here for a while
///ajd said:
Sorry to hear your news AC43.
No worries fellah. My job's been at risk ever since the vote - as I called out right at the start - so it hardly comes as a surprise. The conditions feel a bit similar to the run up to 92 (when I was last made redundant). First the housing market went into reverse, then general sentiment changes, then people around me started losing their jobs.
Although to draw a real parallel we haven't seen the full effect yet. The day we leave the EU will be the equivalent of the day we withdrew from the ERM.
It's interesting to see the reactions of some of the posters on here. There seems to a feeling that this is proof the the "plan" is "working".
Me? I'm not as bothered as I would have been a year ago before I off loaded my most recent development and dumped every last sliver of debt.
I can afford to be relaxed at the moment, as I could also be in 92 when I didn't have a mortgage and dependencies. I had a lot of fun that summer, although got very stressed towards the end when the jobs proved to be scarce.
in 2008, however, I was balls deep in debt, building my first proper development and the crisis was terrifiying. Clung on through that, just. Also got made redundant, found a new job with literally minutes to spare that time
Having lived through two of the buggers I was amazed that the people of Britain actually voted for a third one. Great. Just great.
///ajd said:
I find it quite perplexing how the government appears to be just standing by saying "whatever" amid these declarations about job moves by banks.
They did at least pretend to give a toss when TATA was looking at closing steel works. But I can't see any attempt to stem the departure of all this city revenue.
Pandering to the voters of Stoke (immigration 11%) who confuse immigration with industrial decline and the growth of other sectors in big bad London (see Westmister 50% immigration and Brent where I live 56%)They did at least pretend to give a toss when TATA was looking at closing steel works. But I can't see any attempt to stem the departure of all this city revenue.
///ajd said:
A hub for foreign investment? It rings a bit hollow at the moment.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/davo...
As called out by other the US will be the main beneficiary of FS jobs going elsewhere. HK will get the rest.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/davo...
///ajd said:
How the EU see us. How Daily Mail readers see us.
Comedy gold - I want to frame that!Edited by AC43 on Friday 20th January 08:02
cirian75 said:
SKP555 said:
IroningMan said:
Must've missed those - or were they the ones about selling jam?
The ones about lower regulation, increasing trade with the rest of the world and controlled immigration for starters.kurt535 said:
Carl_Manchester said:
Digga said:
AC43 said:
I've just lost my job (supplier to the banking sector), my mate has just lost his (banking admin) job yet again.
Sorry to hear that. Hope something turns up PDQ.I do worry whether the city of London's 'outlier' performance, both in terms of its global financial significance and also it's dominant position within the UK economy are not a source for long term concern? Can it continue at present magnitude? Could there be some reversion to mean?
My gut feeling is it can, but at the same time, there is a risk, no matter how small.
At least by leaving it will accelerate banking industry reform.
The top banks simply cannot sustain the levels of pay that have been defacto for over 20 years. The end game for many banks is already here, some of them are simply zombie companies.
not sure if this has been seen by anyone and am unsure whether ft is pro or anti leave.
https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-companies/
https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-companies/
AC43 said:
///ajd said:
Sorry to hear your news AC43.
No worries fellah. My job's been at risk ever since the vote - as I called out right at the start - so it hardly comes as a surprise. The conditions feel a bit similar to the run up to 92 (when I was last made redundant). First the housing market went into reverse, then general sentiment changes, then people around me started losing their jobs.
Although to draw a real parallel we haven't seen the full effect yet. The day we leave the EU will be the equivalent of the day we withdrew from the ERM.
It's interesting to see the reactions of some of the posters on here. There seems to a feeling that this is proof the the "plan" is "working".
Me? I'm not as bothered as I would have been a year ago before I off loaded my most recent development and dumped every last sliver of debt.
I can afford to be relaxed at the moment, as I could also be in 92 when I didn't have a mortgage and dependencies. I had a lot of fun that summer, although got very stressed towards the end when the jobs proved to be scarce.
in 2008, however, I was balls deep in debt, building my first proper development and the crisis was terrifiying. Clung on through that, just. Also got made redundant, found a new job with literally minutes to spare that time
Having lived through two of the buggers I was amazed that the people of Britain actually voted for a third one. Great. Just great.
///ajd said:
I find it quite perplexing how the government appears to be just standing by saying "whatever" amid these declarations about job moves by banks.
They did at least pretend to give a toss when TATA was looking at closing steel works. But I can't see any attempt to stem the departure of all this city revenue.
Pandering to the voters of Stoke (immigration 11%) who confuse immigration with industrial decline and the growth of other sectors in big bad London (see Westmister 50% immigration and Brent where I live 56%)They did at least pretend to give a toss when TATA was looking at closing steel works. But I can't see any attempt to stem the departure of all this city revenue.
///ajd said:
A hub for foreign investment? It rings a bit hollow at the moment.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/davo...
As called out by other the US will be the main beneficiary of FS jobs going elsewhere. HK will get the rest.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/davo...
///ajd said:
How the EU see us. How Daily Mail readers see us.
Comedy gold - I want to frame that!Edited by AC43 on Friday 20th January 08:02
But it's quite normal to come unstuck from time to time. You made it through which is great but your decisions and personal impact have no bearing on what 'most people' do or believe. One mans disaster is another mans panacea.AC43 said:
///ajd said:
Sorry to hear your news AC43.
No worries fellah. My job's been at risk ever since the vote - as I called out right at the start - so it hardly comes as a surprise. The conditions feel a bit similar to the run up to 92 (when I was last made redundant). First the housing market went into reverse, then general sentiment changes, then people around me started losing their jobs.
Although to draw a real parallel we haven't seen the full effect yet. The day we leave the EU will be the equivalent of the day we withdrew from the ERM.
It's interesting to see the reactions of some of the posters on here. There seems to a feeling that this is proof the the "plan" is "working".
Me? I'm not as bothered as I would have been a year ago before I off loaded my most recent development and dumped every last sliver of debt.
I can afford to be relaxed at the moment, as I could also be in 92 when I didn't have a mortgage and dependencies. I had a lot of fun that summer, although got very stressed towards the end when the jobs proved to be scarce.
in 2008, however, I was balls deep in debt, building my first proper development and the crisis was terrifiying. Clung on through that, just. Also got made redundant, found a new job with literally minutes to spare that time
Having lived through two of the buggers I was amazed that the people of Britain actually voted for a third one. Great. Just great.
///ajd said:
I find it quite perplexing how the government appears to be just standing by saying "whatever" amid these declarations about job moves by banks.
They did at least pretend to give a toss when TATA was looking at closing steel works. But I can't see any attempt to stem the departure of all this city revenue.
Pandering to the voters of Stoke (immigration 11%) who confuse immigration with industrial decline and the growth of other sectors in big bad London (see Westmister 50% immigration and Brent where I live 56%)They did at least pretend to give a toss when TATA was looking at closing steel works. But I can't see any attempt to stem the departure of all this city revenue.
///ajd said:
A hub for foreign investment? It rings a bit hollow at the moment.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/davo...
As called out by other the US will be the main beneficiary of FS jobs going elsewhere. HK will get the rest.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/davo...
///ajd said:
How the EU see us. How Daily Mail readers see us.
Comedy gold - I want to frame that!Edited by AC43 on Friday 20th January 08:02
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