The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[Murph7355]

Just suppose banks do move a chunk of their staff early...

Imagine we get a deal that includes keeping access to the EU FS market. Some people are going to end up looking a little daft (again) , especially if the open for business moniker leads to increased benefits to being here.

[AC43]

Murph7355 said:

Just suppose banks do move a chunk of their staff early...

Imagine we get a deal that includes keeping access to the EU FS market. Some people are going to end up looking a little daft (again) , especially if the open for business moniker leads to increased benefits to being here.

Yes but the costs/risks are huge.

On one had trade could be illegal, on the other had institutions will be obliged to capitalise in two separate location in order to continue their operations.

There is no UK upside here.

Apart from Stoke which will have 1000 new factories by next Tuesday.

Or less immigrants.

Or something.

Edited by AC43 on Sunday 22 January 14:39

[anonymous-user]

A link to a previous statement from Lloyds

https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/press-cent...

[AC43]

desolate said:

A link to a previous statement from Lloyds

https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/press-cent...

Yeah but what does she know about Stoke?

Liberal metropolitan so-called "expert".

[anonymous-user]

Murph7355 said:

Just suppose banks do move a chunk of their staff early...

Imagine we get a deal that includes keeping access to the EU FS market. Some people are going to end up looking a little daft (again) , especially if the open for business moniker leads to increased benefits to being here.

Everyone will have to plan for their 'worst case' outcome of the ngotiations.

Better that they look a little silly and transfer the necessary operations out just in case, rather than looking very foolish by locking themselves out of a major market.

[davepoth]

cookie118 said:

Everyone will have to plan for their 'worst case' outcome of the ngotiations.

Better that they look a little silly and transfer the necessary operations out just in case, rather than looking very foolish by locking themselves out of a major market.

But moving people is a little bit silly since the only "Business" they know they need to move at the moment is an archive box of papers to a lawyers' office in Frankfurt. As we get closer to the date and things become clearer it might be worth doing a bit more.

[anonymous-user]

davepoth said:

But moving people is a little bit silly since the only "Business" they know they need to move at the moment is an archive box of papers to a lawyers' office in Frankfurt. As we get closer to the date and things become clearer it might be worth doing a bit more.

For a regulated business things take time. Somethings take a long time.

If they don't start the process now they run a real risk of not being able to trade.

[davepoth]

desolate said:

For a regulated business things take time. Somethings take a long time.

If they don't start the process now they run a real risk of not being able to trade.

Yes, which is why they need to move a box full of paper. If those regulated businesses take time to set up then why would they want to move thousands of workers to the continent to twiddle their thumbs while a civil servant is busy working through the application form?

[anonymous-user]

desolate said:

A link to a previous statement from Lloyds

https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/press-cent...

Made pre the referendum.

[anonymous-user]

davepoth said:

Yes, which is why they need to move a box full of paper. If those regulated businesses take time to set up then why would they want to move thousands of workers to the continent to twiddle their thumbs while a civil servant is busy working through the application form?

Who said anything about thousands of workers?

As far as I can tell all they are doing is creating a regulated entity in an EU jurisdiction.

Have I missed something?

[davepoth]

desolate said:

Who said anything about thousands of workers?

As far as I can tell all they are doing is creating a regulated entity in an EU jurisdiction.

Have I missed something?

Remainers. Remainers have been saying a lot about financial institutions moving thousands of workers to the continent STRAIGHT AWAY, probably on Monday, or maybe Tuesday if the miss the last ferry. But definitely some time next week.

[anonymous-user]

jsf said:

Made pre the referendum.

Yes I am aware of that.

I thought people may be interested to know that they are going to open a business in the EU and that link provided some context

[B'stard Child]

desolate said:

jsf said:

Made pre the referendum.

Yes I am aware of that.

I thought people may be interested to know that they are going to open a business in the EU and that link provided some context

I'd read that a while back. Lots of companies, CEO's, Business movers and shakers, politicians, celebrities and well just about every expert in every field said to leave the EU would be bad and they supported/endorsed "Remain"

So stacked up with all those recommendations one has to wonder what kind of utter retard would go against the weight of opinion that said it would be "bad" to leave.

When you work out that bit I think you may well realise why some people aren't concerned by the wailing snippets of doom that are being thrown out to a hungry MM

[anonymous-user]

B'stard Child said:

I'd read that a while back. Lots of companies, CEO's, Business movers and shakers, politicians, celebrities and well just about every expert in every field said to leave the EU would be bad and they supported/endorsed "Remain"

So stacked up with all those recommendations one has to wonder what kind of utter retard would go against the weight of opinion that said it would be "bad" to leave.

When you work out that bit I think you may well realise why some people aren't concerned by the wailing snippets of doom that are being thrown out to a hungry MM

So it's irrelevant then?

[B'stard Child]

desolate said:

B'stard Child said:

I'd read that a while back. Lots of companies, CEO's, Business movers and shakers, politicians, celebrities and well just about every expert in every field said to leave the EU would be bad and they supported/endorsed "Remain"

So stacked up with all those recommendations one has to wonder what kind of utter retard would go against the weight of opinion that said it would be "bad" to leave.

When you work out that bit I think you may well realise why some people aren't concerned by the wailing snippets of doom that are being thrown out to a hungry MM

So it's irrelevant then?

No not irrelevant at all - it's a clear consequence of the vote.

Actions have consequences

[PRTVR]

Don't know whether this has been posted

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GddnrcVK3kg



A phone video not very good, but if you listen to what's said it shows the links between the Trump team and the BREXIT team, I can see us getting a fair deal with any trade negotiations with the Trump administration.

[ecurie]

PRTVR said:

Don't know whether this has been posted

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GddnrcVK3kg



A phone video not very good, but if you listen to what's said it shows the links between the Trump team and the BREXIT team, I can see us getting a fair deal with any trade negotiations with the Trump administration.

Yeah, like " You'll pay a 35% import tax if you don't build Jaguars and Land Rovers in the USA".
He's a protectionist and will only be interested in a trade deal if it's in favour of the US.
He doesn't care about the UK, he only wants the EU to fall apart. And why would that be, do you think ? Because he believes in the sovereignity of each country or because it would make his bargaining position better ? You know, one big country vs. 28 (27 after Brexit) small ones.

[anonymous-user]

ecurie said:

PRTVR said:

Don't know whether this has been posted

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GddnrcVK3kg



A phone video not very good, but if you listen to what's said it shows the links between the Trump team and the BREXIT team, I can see us getting a fair deal with any trade negotiations with the Trump administration.

Yeah, like " You'll pay a 35% import tax if you don't build Jaguars and Land Rovers in the USA".
He's a protectionist and will only be interested in a trade deal if it's in favour of the US.
He doesn't care about the UK, he only wants the EU to fall apart. And why would that be, do you think ? Because he believes in the sovereignity of each country or because it would make his bargaining position better ? You know, one big country vs. 28 (27 after Brexit) small ones.

That not what he has said.

What he said was if a USA company shuts down its operation and moves the jobs to Mexico, they will be hit with punitive taxes on import. His position is you cant build a business on the backs of American knowledge, to then kill those jobs for a higher profit margin by producing in a cheap labour market.

[Burwood]

ecurie said:

PRTVR said:

Don't know whether this has been posted

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GddnrcVK3kg



A phone video not very good, but if you listen to what's said it shows the links between the Trump team and the BREXIT team, I can see us getting a fair deal with any trade negotiations with the Trump administration.

Yeah, like " You'll pay a 35% import tax if you don't build Jaguars and Land Rovers in the USA".
He's a protectionist and will only be interested in a trade deal if it's in favour of the US.
He doesn't care about the UK, he only wants the EU to fall apart. And why would that be, do you think ? Because he believes in the sovereignity of each country or because it would make his bargaining position better ? You know, one big country vs. 28 (27 after Brexit) small ones.

That may be true, but what better way to hasten the EU breakup than to show the UK prospering outside, on their own. This country will indeed prosper. I have every confidence. The EU is a parasite and will fail imo

[PRTVR]

ecurie said:

PRTVR said:

Don't know whether this has been posted

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GddnrcVK3kg



A phone video not very good, but if you listen to what's said it shows the links between the Trump team and the BREXIT team, I can see us getting a fair deal with any trade negotiations with the Trump administration.

Yeah, like " You'll pay a 35% import tax if you don't build Jaguars and Land Rovers in the USA".
He's a protectionist and will only be interested in a trade deal if it's in favour of the US.
He doesn't care about the UK, he only wants the EU to fall apart. And why would that be, do you think ? Because he believes in the sovereignity of each country or because it would make his bargaining position better ? You know, one big country vs. 28 (27 after Brexit) small ones.

That's one view point, personally I think all this talk of tariffs is more to do with low wage countries and big business greed at the cost of America workers, the UK does fall into that category, who is going to be the first foreign leader to meet him, not Canada but the UK, significant? I think so.