The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)
Discussion
PRTVR said:
b2hbm said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
For those that know about these fishy things.
Will there really be much change post Brexit?
I am guessing UK trawlers currently operate in rEU waters just as rEU trawlers operate in UK waters. Are each to be excluded from each others waters post Brexit, or is it far more likely a deal with be done to continue post Brexit much as it is now?
In theory we should go back to pre-EEC days and exclude other nationalities, however I suspect that whatever people expect to happen, won't. To suddenly cut out non-UK fleets might feel good but the negotiations can't ignore the effects on those nations so I'm sure a deal will be struck. Even if it's a tapered withdrawal I expect to hear of non-UK fleets in "our" waters. The fishing industry will be disappointed but I think it's one of those levers that will be used when negotiating.Will there really be much change post Brexit?
I am guessing UK trawlers currently operate in rEU waters just as rEU trawlers operate in UK waters. Are each to be excluded from each others waters post Brexit, or is it far more likely a deal with be done to continue post Brexit much as it is now?
But as WC98 rightly points out, even if the UK fleets were only allowed freedom from the EU quota concept as a result of Brexit, that alone would be a boost for the industry.
PurpleMoonlight said:
FiF said:
For example instead of quotas we could see regulations for designated permanently closed areas for conservation purposes; provision for the temporary closures of fisheries; promotion of selective gear, effective enforcement.
Maybe, I don't think the fish are likely to observe the boundaries though ...
Jockman said:
A Financial Director purchasing $80m of products so maybe $400m turnover. No contingency plans for a leave vote. Seriously?
I bought forward at 1.47 on the eve of the referendum, then again at 1.30 back in September, all spent now so back to market rates of 1.22. Regardless of contingency plans, I doubt that there are many pre-referendum deals still live, some maybe, but not many. The most that even the most prescient FD could have done was buy a few months breathing space. sidicks said:
Roman Rhodes said:
Except they weren't "cherry-picked by the newspaper", nor was it about the "short-term impact of Brexit".
Do you know anything about the survey - other than you don't like it because the results don't support your view?
Sounds like you know very little about the Survey! The 88% figure refers to the short-term (0-5 years) impact of Brexit!Do you know anything about the survey - other than you don't like it because the results don't support your view?
How many professional bodies are there for economists? If there are more than 2 then they've 'cherry-picked' those two.
Are there credible economists that aren't members of those two professional bodies?
Regardless, the 17% response rate suggests a very high rate of self-selection, hence with such a small sample size means the results can be taken with a large pinch of salt.
And that's before we analyse the actual question being asked!
PS - what it is with you people with no interest in cars that seek to join a car forum?!
Edited by sidicks on Thursday 22 December 18:54
I suggest laying off making the hats and save some of that tinfoil for your turkey.
Merry Christmas!
Mrr T said:
don4l said:
Mrr T said:
It interesting because one thing we do know is any hard brexit would devastate the UK food export industry.
Do we have a large trade surplus in food?https://www.fdf.org.uk/exports/ukexports.aspx
I asked if we had a large trade surplus.
Do you know the answer?
B'stard Child said:
Roman Rhodes said:
Except they weren't "cherry-picked by the newspaper", nor was it about the "short-term impact of Brexit".
Do you know anything about the survey - other than you don't like it because the results don't support your view?
That's not a bad period of lurking to then "pop your cherry" on a "Brexit" postDo you know anything about the survey - other than you don't like it because the results don't support your view?
Can't say I agree with your viewpoint but it's early days and you've yet to be proven as an "exceptional new contributor" like "Trabi601" or "Jawknee" where I'd be inclined towards voting to keep you - so I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt.
wc98 said:
///ajd said:
Do you think that is what they expect to happen?
Stock management won't change, it will continue or we'll decimate the stocks. This is not an EU straight banana bulls
t story, its a practical marine biology issue.
How do you think the fishermen in Bridlington will feel about tariffs and barriers if they affect their exports? Should their industry get a say?
do not call anything the common fisheries policy ,or those involved with it, including the relevant uk bodies has done or does ,stock management, ever fStock management won't change, it will continue or we'll decimate the stocks. This is not an EU straight banana bulls
t story, its a practical marine biology issue.How do you think the fishermen in Bridlington will feel about tariffs and barriers if they affect their exports? Should their industry get a say?
king again, ever. if i ever end up in jail it will be down to snapping after talking to one of my commercial skipper mates and him telling me he has just dumped another 400 boxes of plaice/haddock/cod/etc due to no quota. (whoever top fisheries bod in the uk is at the time will be on the end of the snapping).it is f
king insanity what fisheries managers have done over the last forty years. anyone, and i mean anyone that supports it needs battering about the face with a frozen cod repeatedly. you have been told this before, yet you continue to talk the same ste over,and over and over again. you are like a broken,whinging, bed wetting old fking woman.out of the common fisheries policy the uk fleet could double landings of all whitefish species overnight, and thus double exports, without catching one single extra fish over and above what they catch at the moment. please get that through your thick skull .
We export alot of seafood - 66% into the EU.
We do need a good trade deal with the EU.
Will we get a good trade deal if we suddenly take all the quotas for ourselves, and drive EU fishing businesses into hard times? I would suggest not which suggests maintaining things as they are to protect places like Bridlington.
The quotas won't disappear.
In the Marr article he suggests we might catch half as much as now - not more! His views on bringing back the 'under tens' are also misplaced. Its like suggesting we ban 38t trucks and go back to all having Bedford 4 tonners for haulage. We can't uninvent the large processing trawler.
I found the Marr article littered with wet liberal nonsense frankly, neither here nor there, and e.g. his position on trident is not well considered in my view. Well meaning but not a credible or desirable policy.
Edited by ///ajd on Friday 23 December 11:21
B'stard Child said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
FiF said:
For example instead of quotas we could see regulations for designated permanently closed areas for conservation purposes; provision for the temporary closures of fisheries; promotion of selective gear, effective enforcement.
Maybe, I don't think the fish are likely to observe the boundaries though ...Furthermore whilst there are migratory and straddling stocks between ecosystems then these need to me managed with trans-national arrangements which are covered by UN convention. It's been shown by better managed fisheries that stocks can be managed with rapid reaction to monitoring of catches eg excessive catches of young fish.
All a bit more complicated than dealt with by a smart arse fish don't observe boundaries.
///ajd said:
A charming post. I would suggest you are possibly fixating on the dead fish issue and not looing at the big picture.
That is a major issue; it's indicative of the stupidity and unworkability of present quotas and why they are not helping stocks.///ajd said:
We export alot of seafood - 66% into the EU.
The flip side of that argument is how many jobs within the EU depend upon the processing and serving of said exports? And how well will it do down within the EU if their beloved sea food rockets in price?FiF said:
I'm assuming by the smiley that PM was attempting a joke as opposed to displaying his ignorance. It's true that fish don't observe man made boundaries, but they do observe some boundaries, for example the Norwegian Sea is an example of an ecosystem with very little cross boundary movement. The EU creates political boundaries that dissect natural ecosystems that hinder decent management.
Furthermore whilst there are migratory and straddling stocks between ecosystems then these need to me managed with trans-national arrangements which are covered by UN convention. It's been shown by better managed fisheries that stocks can be managed with rapid reaction to monitoring of catches eg excessive catches of young fish.
All a bit more complicated than dealt with by a smart arse fish don't observe boundaries.
Thanks for the explanation.Furthermore whilst there are migratory and straddling stocks between ecosystems then these need to me managed with trans-national arrangements which are covered by UN convention. It's been shown by better managed fisheries that stocks can be managed with rapid reaction to monitoring of catches eg excessive catches of young fish.
All a bit more complicated than dealt with by a smart arse fish don't observe boundaries.
I'm glad that post Brexit we won't have to worry about unlimited fish immigration to UK sovereign waters.
RYH64E said:
If our exports to the EU are subject to the same delays in customs that often affect our exports to the RotW then the challenge will be getting fish to market whilst it's still fresh enough to sell.
And so, again, how many jobs within the EU depend upon the processing and serving of said exports? And how well will it do down within the EU if their beloved sea food rockets in price?Digga said:
RYH64E said:
If our exports to the EU are subject to the same delays in customs that often affect our exports to the RotW then the challenge will be getting fish to market whilst it's still fresh enough to sell.
And so, again, how many jobs within the EU depend upon the processing and serving of said exports? And how well will it do down within the EU if their beloved sea food rockets in price?The tariffs are there to protect internal EU seafood market.
It doesn't mean that there is no one to take up our current market share, and it could boost internal EU fishing, just as many talk about we'll go "made in britain" as a counter.
Plus why would they give up their own quotas and damage their own fleets whilst allowing ours to "double" and let us dominate their market with free access? Do you think the EU nations are stupid or born yesterday?
This is obvious cake and eat it nonsense. It is not realistic. Minimal change is more realistic, but it will come at a negotiation price.
///ajd said:
Plus why would they give up their own quotas and damage their own fleets whilst allowing ours to "double" and let us dominate their market with free access? Do you think the EU nations are stupid or born yesterday?
They can't fish where they're not allowed.The UK has a rather half-hearted relationship with seafood, but for most Mediterranean nations, blessed with an admirable disregard for fads like vegetarianism or veganism, the main meal choice is "meat or seafood". It is a huge part of their diet and they need what is caught in UK waters to maintain supply, or, at very least, to maintain pricing.
Digga said:
They can't fish where they're not allowed.
The UK has a rather half-hearted relationship with seafood, but for most Mediterranean nations, blessed with an admirable disregard for fads like vegetarianism or veganism, the main meal choice is "meat or seafood". It is a huge part of their diet and they need what is caught in UK waters to maintain supply, or, at very least, to maintain pricing.
If the produce is in such short supply, why are there external tariffs at all?The UK has a rather half-hearted relationship with seafood, but for most Mediterranean nations, blessed with an admirable disregard for fads like vegetarianism or veganism, the main meal choice is "meat or seafood". It is a huge part of their diet and they need what is caught in UK waters to maintain supply, or, at very least, to maintain pricing.
The existence of external tariffs specifically on these products suggests the reliance on the UK is not as you imply.
I'd suggest the impact of us banning fishing to EU vessels would precipitate a severe backlash from EU states whose economies would be affected. They would block any deal on principle until we compromised. It is obvious.
The key brexiteers know this. Farage knows this. That's why he doesn't want to be around when reality hits.
Digga said:
///ajd said:
Plus why would they give up their own quotas and damage their own fleets whilst allowing ours to "double" and let us dominate their market with free access? Do you think the EU nations are stupid or born yesterday?
They can't fish where they're not allowed.The UK has a rather half-hearted relationship with seafood, but for most Mediterranean nations, blessed with an admirable disregard for fads like vegetarianism or veganism, the main meal choice is "meat or seafood". It is a huge part of their diet and they need what is caught in UK waters to maintain supply, or, at very least, to maintain pricing.
///ajd said:
We export alot of seafood - 66% into the EU.
It's so obvious 
RYH64E said:
Jockman said:
A Financial Director purchasing $80m of products so maybe $400m turnover. No contingency plans for a leave vote. Seriously?
I bought forward at 1.47 on the eve of the referendum, then again at 1.30 back in September, all spent now so back to market rates of 1.22. Regardless of contingency plans, I doubt that there are many pre-referendum deals still live, some maybe, but not many. The most that even the most prescient FD could have done was buy a few months breathing space. Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff